Key Takeaways POST's Q4 adjusted EPS beat estimates while net sales rose 11.8% with acquisition-driven gains.Growth in Foodservice and Weetabix helped offset volume declines in Post Consumer Brands.POST sees FY26 adjusted EBITDA of $1,500-$1,540M and plans continued investment in egg facilities.Post Holdings, Inc. ((POST) reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, wherein the top line came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while the bottom line beat the same. Both metrics showed year-over-year gr ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net sales for Q4 were $2.2 billion, with a 12% increase driven by the acquisition of Eighth Avenue; excluding this acquisition, net sales declined due to lower pet food and cereal volumes [12][13] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $425 million, with a 50% increase in foodservice adjusted EBITDA driven by avian influenza pricing and volume growth [12][13] - Free cash flow for the quarter was approximately $150 million, with full-year free cash flow nearing $500 million [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Post's consumer brands net sales, excluding Eighth Avenue, decreased by 13%, with cereal volumes down 8% and pet volumes down 13% [12][13] - Foodservice net sales increased by 20%, with an 11% volume increase; adjusted EBITDA increased by 50% [12][13] - Refrigerated retail net sales were flat, with volumes down 4% excluding PPI impact; adjusted EBITDA increased by 44% [12][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cold chain business showed strong performance, particularly in egg and potato volumes, with higher margin egg products growing nearly 9% in Q4 [9][10] - The U.K. cereal category showed improvement, with Weetabix's net sales increasing by 4% [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on cost reduction and profitable brand investments in retail while expecting volume growth in foodservice [6][8] - There is an ongoing review of M&A opportunities, with a balanced approach between acquisitions and share buybacks based on risk-return perspectives [20][21] - The company plans to make targeted investments in innovation across various categories, including protein and granola products in cereal [37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating regulatory changes and consumer sentiment challenges, highlighting the resilience of their diversified portfolio [5][6] - For FY 2026, the company expects adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $1.50 billion to $1.54 billion, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 1%-4% [16] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 2.6 million shares in Q4, totaling 6.4 million shares for FY 2025 [15][16] - Capital expenditure guidance for FY 2026 is set at $350 million to $390 million, significantly lower than FY 2025 [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Industry volume challenges and capital allocation decisions - Management acknowledged the structural versus cyclical nature of current industry challenges and emphasized a more thoughtful approach to capital allocation, balancing M&A and share buybacks [19][20] Question: Cost optimization in cereal segment - Management indicated that while there are additional cost reduction opportunities, larger actions like plant closures have already been taken, focusing now on line optimization [22][23] Question: Normalized growth outlook for segments - Management expects the PCB legacy business to remain flat, while other segments are projected to align with growth algorithms [26][27] Question: Performance in refrigerated retail - Management noted that while pricing benefits inflated margins, they expect high teens margins to be reasonable, with a return to around 16% during slower periods [32] Question: Innovation investments in 2026 - Management plans to invest in brand innovation across categories, including new product lines in cereal and pet food [37] Question: Demand for value-added products in foodservice - Management expressed confidence in sustained demand for value-added products due to historical trends and operational efficiencies [39][40] Question: Key moving parts in pet segment - Management highlighted the impact of lost private label business and expected a return to flat or slight growth in the second half of FY 2026 [45] Question: Pricing rationality in cereal category - Management noted competitive pressure and promotional activities affecting pricing dynamics in the cereal category [47]

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Post Holdings (POST) reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on November 20, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than ex ...

Strategy and Growth - General Mills aims to accelerate growth by driving remarkability in its offerings [7] - The company's strategy focuses on core markets, global platforms, and local gems, with a goal of organic net sales growth of +2% to 3% and adjusted operating profit growth in the mid-single digits [9] - Portfolio reshaping through acquisitions and divestitures has added approximately 1 percentage point to long-term growth exposure [23] - Nearly 30% of the net sales base has been turned over since fiscal year 2018 [25] Financial Performance and Outlook - General Mills reaffirms its fiscal year 2026 financial outlook, including organic net sales growth of -1% to +1%, adjusted operating profit growth of -15% to -10%, and adjusted diluted EPS growth of -15% to -10% [317] - The company anticipates approximately 5% headwinds from the net impact of divestitures and acquisitions and 3% from normalization of corporate incentive expense in fiscal year 2026 [317] - Holistic Margin Management (HMM) cost savings are projected to be 5% of COGS in fiscal year 2026, continuing a long-term trend [22] - General Mills returned nearly $14 billion to shareholders between fiscal years 2019 and 2025, including $9 billion in dividends and $5 billion in net share repurchases [340, 341, 343] Segment Performance - North America Retail segment is focused on building remarkable brands in food [46] - North America Foodservice segment reported $2.3 billion in net sales in fiscal year 2025 [158] - North America Pet segment is identified as the largest growth opportunity for the company, operating in a $56 billion U S category and a $142 billion global category [190, 189] - International segment reported $2.8 billion in net sales in fiscal year 2025, with global platforms expected to drive 75% of its growth over the next three years [268, 280]

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: POST) has underperformed in the market over the past year, showing flat trading and missing out on significant market rallies due to weaker-than-expected sales in its cereal division [1] Company Performance - The company's cereal division has reported sales that were weaker than anticipated, contributing to its overall disappointing performance [1] Market Context - Despite the challenges faced by Post Holdings, the broader market has experienced meaningful rallies that the company has not capitalized on [1]

Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with both revenue and earnings exceeding expectations and showing year-over-year growth [1][10]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $2.03, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.67, and increased from $1.54 in the same quarter last year [2][10]. - Net sales reached $1,984.3 million, a 1.9% increase year over year, beating the estimate of $1,951 million. This includes $8.4 million from the acquisition of Potato Products of Idaho, L.L.C. [3][10]. - Gross profit was $596.2 million, up 3.3% year over year, with gross margin expanding to 30% from 29.6% [3][10]. - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses decreased by 3.8% to $312.1 million, representing 15.7% of net sales compared to 16.7% in the prior year [4]. - Operating profit increased by 15.5% to $234.6 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 13.4% to $397 million from $350.2 million in the previous year [4]. Segment Performance - **Post Consumer Brands**: Reported net sales of $914 million, down 9.3% year over year, missing the estimate of $945 million, primarily due to a 10.3% drop in volumes [5]. - **Weetabix**: Net sales increased by 1.3% to $137.9 million but missed the estimate of $139 million, with a 2.5% decline in volumes [6]. - **Foodservice**: Achieved 18.6% growth in net sales to $698.5 million, exceeding the estimate of $636 million, with volumes growing 4.5% excluding acquisition impacts [7]. - **Refrigerated Retail**: Sales increased by 9.1% to $233.9 million, beating the estimate of $224 million, with a profit surge of 380.4% to $24.5 million [8]. Future Outlook - The company raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $1,500-$1,520 million, up from the previous range of $1,460-$1,500 million [10][14]. - Capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 are expected to be between $450 million and $480 million, increased from the previous range of $390-$430 million [15]. Shareholder Actions - Post Holdings repurchased 0.6 million shares for $62.1 million in the third quarter, totaling 3.9 million shares for $434.7 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2025 [12].

Group 1: Earnings Performance - Post Holdings reported quarterly earnings of $2.03 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.67 per share, and up from $1.54 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +21.56% [1] - The company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last quarters [2] - Revenue for the quarter ended June 2025 was $1.98 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.70%, and up from $1.95 billion year-over-year [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - Post Holdings shares have declined approximately 10.5% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 7.9% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.95 on revenues of $2.27 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.73 on revenues of $8.14 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Zacks Industry Rank for Food - Miscellaneous is currently in the bottom 23% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5] - The estimate revisions trend for Post Holdings was favorable ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6]

Company Overview - Post Holdings (POST) is expected to report earnings for the quarter ended June 2025, with a consensus estimate of $1.67 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +8.4% [3] - Revenues are anticipated to be $1.95 billion, which is a slight increase of 0.2% from the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for release on August 7, and the stock price may rise if actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 7.73% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for Post Holdings is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -5.16%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12] - Despite the negative Earnings ESP, Post Holdings holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Post Holdings had an earnings surprise of +19.49%, with actual earnings of $1.41 per share compared to the expected $1.18 [13] - Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [14] Industry Context - Another company in the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry, Nomad Foods (NOMD), is expected to report earnings of $0.44 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of -6.4% [18] - Nomad Foods' revenues are projected to be $888.24 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.6% [19] - The consensus EPS estimate for Nomad Foods has been revised up by 3.5% in the last 30 days, but it currently has an Earnings ESP of -1.15% [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings (POST) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][2]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Movement - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the correlation between changes in earnings estimates and stock price movements, making it a valuable tool for investors [2][3]. - Institutional investors play a role in this relationship, as they adjust their valuations based on earnings estimates, leading to stock price fluctuations [3]. Business Improvement Indicators - The upgrade in ratings and rising earnings estimates suggest an improvement in Post Holdings' underlying business, which could lead to an increase in stock price as investors respond positively [4]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the fiscal year ending September 2025, Post Holdings is projected to earn $6.63 per share, consistent with the previous year's figure, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 3.4% over the past three months [7]. Zacks Rank System Overview - The Zacks Rank system categorizes stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a strong historical performance, particularly for Zacks Rank 1 stocks, which have averaged a +25% annual return since 1988 [6]. - The upgrade of Post Holdings to a Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [9].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, organic net sales decreased by 2%, adjusted operating profit and adjusted diluted EPS were down 7% in constant currency, reflecting a decision to increase investments in response to consumer behavior and market volatility [4][46] - The fourth quarter reported net sales were $4.6 billion, down 3%, with organic net sales also down 3% from the prior year [34][46] - Adjusted operating profit for the fourth quarter was $622 million, down 22% in constant currency, and adjusted diluted EPS totaled $0.74, down 27% in constant currency [35][46] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Retail's fourth quarter organic net sales were down 7%, lagging Nielsen measured U.S. retail sales by approximately three points [37] - North America Pet segment saw a 3% increase in organic net sales driven by higher volume, outperforming retail sales by roughly three points [39] - North America Foodservice organic net sales decreased by 1% in the quarter, while the International segment posted a 9% increase in organic net sales driven by strong growth in Brazil and distributor markets [42][44] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Retail faced challenges with a 3% decline in organic net sales for the full year, driven by lower volume and unfavorable price mix [38] - The International segment's full year results rounded to flat, with growth in distributor markets offset by declines in China [44] - The North America Pet segment showed modest organic net sales growth for the full year, with dollar share growth in dog feeding [40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to restore volume-driven organic sales growth in fiscal 2026 by investing in consumer value, product news, and innovation [3][55] - Key priorities for fiscal 2026 include returning North America Retail to volume growth, accelerating North America Pet growth, and driving efficiency to fund these investments [11][22] - The company plans to leverage its Remarkable Experience framework to assess brands and tailor investments accordingly [12][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a volatile operating environment in fiscal 2026, with consumers remaining cautious and seeking value amid economic uncertainty [10][11] - The company expects organic sales growth to improve in fiscal 2026, driven by stronger competitiveness and volume outpacing price mix [49] - Input cost inflation and tariff impacts are expected to be headwinds, but the company plans to mitigate these through various strategies [50][51] Other Important Information - The company returned $2.5 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2025 through dividends and net share repurchases [10][48] - A global transformation initiative is expected to generate $100 million in cost savings, which will be reinvested in growth [31][33] - The company plans to launch a new line of fresh pet food, "Love Made Fresh," which is projected to capture significant market share in the growing fresh pet food segment [27][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for organic sales growth in fiscal 2026? - The company expects organic net sales to range between down 1% and up 1%, with adjusted operating profit and diluted earnings per share expected to decline by 10% to 15% in constant currency [53] Question: How will the company address input cost inflation and tariffs? - The company anticipates input cost inflation of roughly 3% and additional risks from tariffs, but is working to mitigate these impacts through product reformulation and strategic revenue management [50][51] Question: What are the key priorities for fiscal 2026? - The company has set three clear priorities: returning North America Retail to volume growth, accelerating North America Pet growth, and driving efficiency to support these investments [11][22]