Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with both revenue and earnings exceeding expectations and showing year-over-year growth [1][10]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $2.03, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.67, and increased from $1.54 in the same quarter last year [2][10]. - Net sales reached $1,984.3 million, a 1.9% increase year over year, beating the estimate of $1,951 million. This includes $8.4 million from the acquisition of Potato Products of Idaho, L.L.C. [3][10]. - Gross profit was $596.2 million, up 3.3% year over year, with gross margin expanding to 30% from 29.6% [3][10]. - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses decreased by 3.8% to $312.1 million, representing 15.7% of net sales compared to 16.7% in the prior year [4]. - Operating profit increased by 15.5% to $234.6 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 13.4% to $397 million from $350.2 million in the previous year [4]. Segment Performance - **Post Consumer Brands**: Reported net sales of $914 million, down 9.3% year over year, missing the estimate of $945 million, primarily due to a 10.3% drop in volumes [5]. - **Weetabix**: Net sales increased by 1.3% to $137.9 million but missed the estimate of $139 million, with a 2.5% decline in volumes [6]. - **Foodservice**: Achieved 18.6% growth in net sales to $698.5 million, exceeding the estimate of $636 million, with volumes growing 4.5% excluding acquisition impacts [7]. - **Refrigerated Retail**: Sales increased by 9.1% to $233.9 million, beating the estimate of $224 million, with a profit surge of 380.4% to $24.5 million [8]. Future Outlook - The company raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $1,500-$1,520 million, up from the previous range of $1,460-$1,500 million [10][14]. - Capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 are expected to be between $450 million and $480 million, increased from the previous range of $390-$430 million [15]. Shareholder Actions - Post Holdings repurchased 0.6 million shares for $62.1 million in the third quarter, totaling 3.9 million shares for $434.7 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2025 [12].

Group 1: Earnings Performance - Post Holdings reported quarterly earnings of $2.03 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.67 per share, and up from $1.54 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +21.56% [1] - The company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last quarters [2] - Revenue for the quarter ended June 2025 was $1.98 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.70%, and up from $1.95 billion year-over-year [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - Post Holdings shares have declined approximately 10.5% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 7.9% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.95 on revenues of $2.27 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.73 on revenues of $8.14 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Zacks Industry Rank for Food - Miscellaneous is currently in the bottom 23% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5] - The estimate revisions trend for Post Holdings was favorable ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6]

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings (POST) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][2]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Movement - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the correlation between changes in earnings estimates and stock price movements, making it a valuable tool for investors [2][3]. - Institutional investors play a role in this relationship, as they adjust their valuations based on earnings estimates, leading to stock price fluctuations [3]. Business Improvement Indicators - The upgrade in ratings and rising earnings estimates suggest an improvement in Post Holdings' underlying business, which could lead to an increase in stock price as investors respond positively [4]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the fiscal year ending September 2025, Post Holdings is projected to earn $6.63 per share, consistent with the previous year's figure, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 3.4% over the past three months [7]. Zacks Rank System Overview - The Zacks Rank system categorizes stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a strong historical performance, particularly for Zacks Rank 1 stocks, which have averaged a +25% annual return since 1988 [6]. - The upgrade of Post Holdings to a Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [9].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, organic net sales decreased by 2%, adjusted operating profit and adjusted diluted EPS were down 7% in constant currency, reflecting a decision to increase investments in response to consumer behavior and market volatility [4][46] - The fourth quarter reported net sales were $4.6 billion, down 3%, with organic net sales also down 3% from the prior year [34][46] - Adjusted operating profit for the fourth quarter was $622 million, down 22% in constant currency, and adjusted diluted EPS totaled $0.74, down 27% in constant currency [35][46] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Retail's fourth quarter organic net sales were down 7%, lagging Nielsen measured U.S. retail sales by approximately three points [37] - North America Pet segment saw a 3% increase in organic net sales driven by higher volume, outperforming retail sales by roughly three points [39] - North America Foodservice organic net sales decreased by 1% in the quarter, while the International segment posted a 9% increase in organic net sales driven by strong growth in Brazil and distributor markets [42][44] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Retail faced challenges with a 3% decline in organic net sales for the full year, driven by lower volume and unfavorable price mix [38] - The International segment's full year results rounded to flat, with growth in distributor markets offset by declines in China [44] - The North America Pet segment showed modest organic net sales growth for the full year, with dollar share growth in dog feeding [40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to restore volume-driven organic sales growth in fiscal 2026 by investing in consumer value, product news, and innovation [3][55] - Key priorities for fiscal 2026 include returning North America Retail to volume growth, accelerating North America Pet growth, and driving efficiency to fund these investments [11][22] - The company plans to leverage its Remarkable Experience framework to assess brands and tailor investments accordingly [12][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a volatile operating environment in fiscal 2026, with consumers remaining cautious and seeking value amid economic uncertainty [10][11] - The company expects organic sales growth to improve in fiscal 2026, driven by stronger competitiveness and volume outpacing price mix [49] - Input cost inflation and tariff impacts are expected to be headwinds, but the company plans to mitigate these through various strategies [50][51] Other Important Information - The company returned $2.5 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2025 through dividends and net share repurchases [10][48] - A global transformation initiative is expected to generate $100 million in cost savings, which will be reinvested in growth [31][33] - The company plans to launch a new line of fresh pet food, "Love Made Fresh," which is projected to capture significant market share in the growing fresh pet food segment [27][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for organic sales growth in fiscal 2026? - The company expects organic net sales to range between down 1% and up 1%, with adjusted operating profit and diluted earnings per share expected to decline by 10% to 15% in constant currency [53] Question: How will the company address input cost inflation and tariffs? - The company anticipates input cost inflation of roughly 3% and additional risks from tariffs, but is working to mitigate these impacts through product reformulation and strategic revenue management [50][51] Question: What are the key priorities for fiscal 2026? - The company has set three clear priorities: returning North America Retail to volume growth, accelerating North America Pet growth, and driving efficiency to support these investments [11][22]

Core Viewpoint - General Mills, Inc. (NYSE: GIS) is expected to report earnings soon, with the stock facing significant challenges over the past year [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The stock of General Mills has performed poorly over the last year, indicating a rough period for the company [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Josh Arnold, an experienced analyst, utilizes both technical and fundamental analysis to identify potential growth stocks, focusing on efficient capital use rather than rigid buy-and-hold strategies [1] - The investing group Timely Trader, led by Josh Arnold, emphasizes limiting risk and maximizing potential rewards through features like real-time alerts and sector analysis [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net sales for Q2 were $2 billion, a decrease of 2% compared to the previous year, primarily due to lower overall volumes in retail businesses, partially offset by elevated avian influenza-driven pricing in foodservice and volume growth in shakes [13][14] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $347 million, reflecting a decrease in foodservice adjusted EBITDA by approximately $20 million compared to Q1 due to avian influenza costs [8][13] - Year-to-date cash flow was $240 million, with free cash flow of approximately $70 million net of CapEx spend, indicating a decrease sequentially from the previous quarter [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Post Consumer Brands (PCB) net sales decreased by 7%, driven by lower volumes in both cereal and pet segments, with cereal volumes down 6% and pet volumes down 5% [13][14] - Foodservice net sales increased by 10%, with volumes up by 3%, reflecting elevated pricing and higher shake sales, although excluding shakes, volumes were down by 1% [14][15] - Refrigerated retail net sales decreased by 7%, with volumes down by 5%, impacted by the timing of Easter and avian influenza [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cereal category experienced a decline of 3.7%, with the branded portfolio slightly behind at a decline of 4.5%, leading to pressures on manufacturing utilization and cost structure [9][13] - The pet segment faced a decline in volume consumption of 4.5%, while the overall category remained flat, indicating challenges in demand and distribution [9][14] - Weetabix saw a 5% decrease in net sales, with volumes down by 7%, affected by lower promotions and pricing decisions [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on managing costs and optimizing its asset base to maintain profitability in the face of declining volumes in the cereal category [22][30] - The recent acquisition of PPI is expected to provide new capacity and opportunities for innovation, allowing the company to explore private label and value chain strategies [51][62] - The company plans to continue share repurchases and remains well-positioned for opportunistic capital allocation despite the current market uncertainties [12][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer sentiment is weak, and there is a need to focus on demand drivers and supply chain execution [6][8] - The company expects to recover unfavorable costs ahead of pricing impacts seen in Q2 during the remainder of fiscal 2025, assuming no additional avian influenza outbreaks [8][18] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by avian influenza and the need for a couple of quarters of normalcy to better assess long-term run rates for the foodservice unit [21] Other Important Information - The company has closed two plants by the end of the calendar year to address manufacturing utilization issues [9] - The company has repurchased approximately 6% of its shares since the beginning of the fiscal year, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [12][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term run rate expectations for the Foodservice unit - Management indicated that the long-term run rate is likely higher than previously thought, but a couple of quarters of normalcy are needed to make a better assessment [21] Question: Maintaining profitability in PCB despite volume declines - Management aims to manage costs effectively to maintain profitability, with expectations of a gradual improvement in cereal category declines [22][30] Question: Setup for PCB in fiscal 2026 - Management believes that the transition year for Pet will yield benefits next year, potentially offsetting headwinds in the cereal business [29][30] Question: Key drivers of price mix downturn in PCB - Management noted that the pricing recovery in foodservice will offset some of the pressures in the cereal category for the remainder of the fiscal year [33] Question: Options for Eighth Avenue business - Management expressed confidence in the business operations and indicated that a resolution regarding near-term maturities will be forthcoming [35] Question: Insights from the PPI acquisition - Initial learnings suggest some unexpected synergies and challenges in employee integration, but the acquisition is expected to fit well into the company's network [61][62] Question: Trends in grocery category performance - Management observed a dichotomy in consumer behavior, with premium products performing well while others are seeing reduced demand [67]

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) is expected to report a decline in both revenue and earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, with revenue estimates at nearly $2 billion, reflecting a 1.1% decrease year-over-year, and earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $1.18, indicating a 21.9% decline from the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is approximately $2 billion, which represents a 1.1% decrease from the prior-year quarter [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings has decreased by a penny to $1.18 per share, indicating a 21.9% decline from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter [2]. Factors Affecting Performance - The anticipated decline in performance is attributed to the impact of Avian influenza outbreaks at two third-party contracted farms, leading to a supply imbalance and expected costs of $30 million to $50 million in the fiscal second quarter [2]. - Rising selling, general, and administrative expenses, particularly due to increased advertising and commercial expenditures, are also pressuring the company's performance [3]. - Subdued consumer demand, especially in price-sensitive categories like cereal, is negatively impacting the Post Consumer Brands segment [3]. Positive Aspects - The Foodservice segment is experiencing robust demand from restaurants and institutional clients, with revenue estimates for this segment at $585 million, showing year-over-year growth from $554.8 million [4]. - Effective pricing strategies and a focus on premium product offerings are helping to mitigate higher input costs, supporting overall performance [5]. Earnings Prediction - The model predicts a potential earnings beat for Post Holdings, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +3.22% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6].

Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) is currently trading at $114.82, above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating strong momentum and positive investor sentiment [1][3] - The stock has increased by 6.4% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 1.6% and the S&P 500's decline of 10.4% [3] - The company is focusing on acquisitions to expand its customer base, reporting $60.8 million in net sales from acquisitions in Q1 fiscal 2025 [6] Financial Performance - The Foodservice segment reported a net sales increase of 8.7%, reaching $616.6 million, driven by strong demand in key product categories [7] - Average net pricing increased by 3% in Q1 fiscal 2025, helping to counter inflationary pressures [8] - The Post Consumer Brands segment faced challenges, with net sales declining by 2.5% year over year to $963.9 million, primarily due to weakness in pet food and cereal categories [9] Strategic Developments - The company announced plans to shut down two cereal production plants by year-end to align production with demand [10] - The Refrigerated Retail segment experienced a decline in net sales and volumes by 5.1% and 4.4%, respectively, despite some favorable performance in sausage volumes [11] - SG&A costs increased by 2.7% to $331.6 million in Q1 fiscal 2025, raising concerns about ongoing cost pressures [12] Valuation and Investment Strategy - Post Holdings is trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 16.56X, above the industry average of 16.09X, suggesting a premium valuation [13] - Despite facing challenges, the company shows solid momentum driven by strategic acquisitions and effective pricing actions, indicating potential for long-term growth [17]