Key Takeaways DASH saw total orders rise 21% year over year, driven by growth in grocery, retail, and local delivery.Shopify's merchant solutions made up 75.4% of revenues, supported by new tools and AI-powered Sidekick. SHOP has outperformed DASH over the past six months as enterprise brand adoption continues to grow. DoorDash (DASH) and Shopify (SHOP) are major players in the e-commerce space. While DASH dominates food delivery with its restaurant partnerships and expanding grocery delivery services, Shop ...

Key Takeaways Shopify's GMV and revenues rose 32% in Q3 2025, with growth accelerating across consecutive quarters. An expanding merchant base and AI-powered tools are fueling performance and driving free cash flow gains. SHOP's valuation remains a concern, trading at a premium P/S ratio well above peers like AMZN and WIX.Shopify (SHOP) shares have returned 41.6% in the trailing 12-month period, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s rise of 20.4%. The outperformance can be attribu ...

Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) FY Conference December 09, 2025 07:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsKeith Weiss - Managing DirectorJeff Hoffmeister - CFOKeith WeissAll right, so we'll get kicked off here. Thank you, everyone, for joining us. My name is Keith Weiss. I run the US Software Equity Research Franchise here at Morgan Stanley, and I'm very pleased to have with us from Shopify CFO Jeff Hoffmeister. Jeff, thank you for joining us.Jeff HoffmeisterGreat, of course. Good to see you, Keith.Keith WeissSo, it's a super ex ...

Core Viewpoint - Shopify's stock experienced a decline despite reporting strong revenue growth, primarily due to increased loan losses impacting earnings. However, the stock has seen significant appreciation year-to-date and over the past year [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Shopify's Q3 revenue increased by 32% to $2.84 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.76 billion [5]. - The company's gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose by 32% to $92 billion, with international GMV increasing by 41% [6]. - Merchant solution revenue jumped 38% to $2.15 billion, while subscription revenue grew by 15% to $699 million [7]. - Adjusted EPS slightly decreased from $0.36 to $0.34 due to higher loan losses, which accounted for 5% of revenue [8]. - Monthly recurring revenue (MRR) was reported at $193 million, below the expected $195 million [9]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - Shopify attributed its robust growth to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), with over 750,000 shops using its Sidekick AI assistant [2]. - AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores increased seven-fold since January, and orders from AI searches rose 11-fold [3]. - The company continues to attract large brands, recently adding notable names such as Estée Lauder and e.l.f. [7]. - Strong growth in Europe was highlighted, with GMV surging 49%, contributing to 21% of total revenue [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Shopify forecasts fourth-quarter revenue growth in the mid-to-high 20s percentage range, aligning with previous guidance [9]. - The company is well-positioned for future growth, particularly in agentic commerce and B2B sectors [11]. - Despite a high forward price-to-sales ratio of over 15 based on 2026 estimates, the company remains attractive for potential investment [12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 delivered 32% GMV growth, 32% revenue growth, and an 18% free cash flow margin, consistent with previous quarters [8][36] - Revenue grew 27% in Q1, 31% in Q2, and 32% in Q3, with free cash flow margin holding steady at 15% in Q1, 16% in Q2, and 18% in Q3 [8][36] - Q3 gross profit grew 24%, with gross margin at 48.9%, down from 51.7% in the prior year [39][41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Merchant solutions revenue increased 38%, driven by strong GMV performance, while subscription solutions revenue grew 15% [37][39] - ShopPay processed $29 billion in GMV in Q3, up 67% year-over-year, indicating strong adoption [18][58] - B2B GMV was up 98% year-over-year, with significant growth across various verticals [29][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International GMV grew 41% in Q3, with Europe showing a 49% increase [21][35] - Revenue from Europe accounted for 21% of overall revenue in Q3, up from less than 18% two years ago [21] - Offline GMV increased 31%, reflecting the growing importance of retail-first brands [28][36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging AI to enhance merchant capabilities and streamline operations [10][14] - International expansion and the development of offline and B2B channels are key strategic priorities [5][22] - The company aims to simplify the commerce experience for merchants, enhancing their ability to compete globally [19][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions and technological advancements [4][6] - The outlook for Q4 anticipates revenue growth in the mid- to high-20s% year-over-year, with expectations for continued strong performance [46][48] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a balance between growth and profitability, with a focus on long-term merchant success [44][49] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a flat to down headcount for over two years, focusing on productivity and efficiency [42][43] - The partnership with OpenAI and other AI leaders is expected to enhance the shopping experience and drive traffic to Shopify stores [53][54] Q&A Session Summary Question: Integration with OpenAI and its impact on transactions - Management noted a significant increase in AI-driven traffic and orders attributed to AI searches, indicating early success in this area [53][54] Question: Instant checkout solutions and their prioritization - Management emphasized the popularity of ShopPay and its role as a leading accelerated checkout solution, positioning it favorably among consumers [58][59] Question: Marketing investments and their efficiency - Management confirmed that marketing investments are driving merchant adoption effectively, with a focus on maintaining tight guardrails for spending [63][64] Question: Success in the enterprise business - Management highlighted the strong pipeline and success in attracting large brands, indicating a broad spectrum of verticals being targeted [68][69]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 delivered 32% GMV growth, 32% revenue growth, and an 18% free cash flow margin, consistent with previous quarters [8][36] - Revenue grew 27% in Q1, 31% in Q2, and 32% in Q3, with free cash flow margin holding steady at 15% in Q1, 16% in Q2, and 18% in Q3 [8][36] - Q3 gross profit grew 24%, with gross margin at 48.9%, down from 51.7% in the prior year [39][41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Merchant solutions revenue increased 38%, driven by strong GMV performance, while subscription solutions revenue grew 15% [37][39] - ShopPay processed $29 billion in GMV in Q3, up 67% year-over-year, indicating strong adoption [18][58] - B2B GMV was up 98% year-over-year, with significant growth across various verticals [29][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International GMV grew 41% in Q3, with Europe showing a 49% increase [21][35] - Revenue from Europe accounted for 21% of overall revenue in Q3, up from less than 18% two years ago [21] - Offline GMV increased 31%, indicating strong performance in retail channels [28][35] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging AI to enhance merchant capabilities and streamline operations [10][14] - Shopify aims to expand its international presence and enhance its product offerings to lower barriers for merchants [5][22] - The strategy includes building a robust ecosystem that supports various merchant types and channels, including B2B and offline sales [24][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the importance of AI in transforming commerce and enhancing merchant success [10][30] - The company expects Q4 revenue growth to be in the mid- to high-20s% year-over-year, facing a high benchmark from the previous year [46] - Management remains optimistic about maintaining consistent growth and profitability while investing in future opportunities [44][48] Other Important Information - The company has a cash balance of $6 billion and no debt following the settlement of a convertible note [45] - Operating expenses were $1 billion for the quarter, representing 37% of revenue, down from 45% in 2023 [42][43] - The company is seeing increased transaction and loan losses, primarily due to higher losses in the payments business [43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Integration with OpenAI and its impact - Management noted that AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores has increased 7x, with orders attributed to AI searches up 11x since January [53] Question: Instant checkout solutions prioritization - Management emphasized that ShopPay processed $29 billion in GMV in Q3, indicating its popularity among consumers [58] Question: Marketing investments and efficiency - Management confirmed that marketing investments are driving merchant adoption and are closely monitored for efficiency [63] Question: Success in the enterprise business - Management highlighted the strong pipeline in the enterprise segment, with notable brands migrating to Shopify [69]

Core Insights - Shopify's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for Q2 2025 increased by 30.6% year over year, reaching $87.84 billion, with notable growth in offline GMV (29%) and B2B GMV (101%) [1][10] - The company's international GMV grew by 42% year over year, with Europe also seeing a 42% increase [1][10] - Shopify Payments' GMV penetration reached 64%, and Shop Pay GMV rose by 65% year over year, processing $27 billion in GMV [2][10] Group 1: Growth Drivers - Same-store sales growth from existing merchants and a higher number of merchants on Shopify's platform contributed to the GMV increase [2] - The launch of new merchant-friendly tools and the expansion of payment products into more countries have driven GMV growth [2][4] - The introduction of AI-driven tools like Catalog, Checkout Kit, and Sidekick has gained traction among merchants, enhancing their operational capabilities [3][10] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Shopify faces significant competition from eBay and Amazon, which are both experiencing strong GMV growth and innovative service offerings [5][6][7] - eBay reported over 10% growth in focus category GMV, with active buyers increasing to 134 million [6] - Amazon's "Buy with Prime" service has intensified competition by offering faster delivery options, setting a global speed record for Prime deliveries in Q2 2025 [7] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Shopify's stock has increased by 30.8% year to date, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the Zacks Internet Services industry [8] - The forward 12-month price/sales ratio for Shopify is 14.14X, significantly higher than the sector average of 6.52X, indicating potential overvaluation [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is projected at $1.44 per share, reflecting a 10.8% year-over-year growth [13]

Core Insights - Amazon and Shopify represent two distinct approaches to capturing e-commerce growth, with Amazon being a vertically integrated giant and Shopify focusing on enabling merchants through a platform-as-a-service model [1][2] Amazon (AMZN) Overview - Amazon's second-quarter earnings showed net sales of $167.7 billion, a 13% increase, and operating income of $19.2 billion, up 31% year over year, indicating strong operational efficiency [4] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) generated $30.87 billion in revenue, an 18% year-over-year increase, maintaining its leadership in the cloud infrastructure market [4][9] - The advertising segment grew 23% year over year to $15.69 billion, positioning Amazon as the third-largest digital advertising platform globally [5] - Strategic initiatives include expanding same-day and next-day delivery, launching generative AI tools, and introducing Alexa+, with projected net sales for Q3 between $174 billion and $179.5 billion, reflecting 10-13% growth [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is $6.7 per share, indicating a 21.16% increase from the previous year [7] Shopify (SHOP) Overview - Shopify's second-quarter revenues surged 31% year over year to $2.68 billion, with gross merchandise volume (GMV) increasing 31% to $74.75 billion [8] - International GMV grew 42% year over year, particularly in European markets, and the B2B segment saw GMV increase by 101% [10] - Shopify's free cash flow margin was 16% in Q2, with eight consecutive quarters of double-digit margins [8] - Recent product innovations include AI-driven tools that enhance commerce capabilities, although challenges include slowing monthly recurring revenue growth and profitability pressures [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is $1.44 per share, reflecting a 10.77% increase from the previous year [11] Valuation and Performance Comparison - Amazon's forward P/E ratio is 30.61x, while Shopify's is significantly higher at 83.64x, indicating a more attractive risk-adjusted valuation for Amazon [12] - Year-to-date performance shows Amazon up 3.6% with stability, while Shopify has experienced higher volatility [14] - Amazon's mature business model generates substantial free cash flow, providing flexibility for capital allocation, contrasting with Shopify's reinvestment needs [14] Conclusion - Amazon is identified as the more compelling investment opportunity due to its diversification, stronger financial foundation, and attractive valuation, with multiple growth drivers across e-commerce, cloud computing, and advertising [16] - Investors are advised to monitor Amazon for entry points, while Shopify may require better entry opportunities due to its stretched valuation [16]

Core Insights - Shopify is experiencing significant growth in its merchant base, driven by new merchant-friendly tools and solutions that enhance user engagement and streamline operations [2][9] - The company's financial performance reflects this growth, with merchant solutions revenues reaching $2.02 billion in Q2 2025, a 36.6% increase year-over-year, and Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of $87.84 billion, up 30.6% year-over-year [3][11] Financial Performance - Merchant solutions revenues accounted for 75.5% of Shopify's total revenues in Q2 2025, indicating strong adoption of its payment solutions [3] - The app Shop Pay processed $27 billion in GMV in Q2 2025, marking a 65% increase year-over-year [7][11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Shopify's 2025 earnings is $1.44 per share, reflecting a 10.77% year-over-year growth, while revenues are estimated at $11.21 billion, indicating a 26.24% growth [18] Market Position and Competition - Shopify's stock has gained 33% year-to-date, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector, which increased by 13.8% [4] - Despite strong growth, Shopify faces stiff competition from major players like Amazon and Alibaba, which are expanding their e-commerce offerings [16][17] Strategic Partnerships - Shopify's partnerships with major brands and platforms, including Microsoft, Roblox, and Starbucks, have expanded its reach and enhanced its merchant base [12][15] - The integration of Shopify's Checkout Kit into Microsoft's Copilot exemplifies the company's strategy to leverage AI for improved shopping experiences [13] International Expansion - Shopify's international GMV grew by 42% year-over-year in Q2 2025, with Europe leading this growth, driven by both new and existing merchants [8] Valuation Concerns - Shopify's stock is currently considered overvalued, with a forward Price/Sales ratio of 14.50X compared to the Internet-Services industry's 5.49X, indicating a stretched valuation [19]

Core Insights - Spotify has not observed any significant signs of demand pull-forward among consumers, indicating a stable business performance in Q2 FY25 [1][2] - Shopify is actively preparing for the shift towards Agentic Commerce and AI-driven traffic, launching innovations like Catalog, Universal Cart, and Checkout Kit to position itself as a key partner for AI companies [1][12] Group 1: Business Performance - Shopify's business performance remains strong, particularly in Europe and North America, with significant growth in all GMV ranges and product categories [2][3] - International GMV has increased by 42% year-over-year, driven by product optimization and market promotion efforts [3] Group 2: Growth Strategy - Shopify's long-term growth strategy is supported by past investments, with expectations to maintain a growth rate of around 25% to 30% in the coming years [4] - The company sees substantial opportunities for expansion in new verticals such as drilling and mining, which could significantly increase its total addressable market (TAM) [8] Group 3: Product Innovation - Shopify is enhancing its product offerings with modular pricing through Commerce Components, allowing merchants to select specific services, which has attracted large retailers [6][11] - The company is focused on integrating a seamless shopping experience into AI conversations, with Universal Cart and Checkout Kit already in use [5][12] Group 4: Marketing and Customer Acquisition - Shopify has observed strong growth in GMV, merchant base, and revenue, attributed to effective marketing investments and improved internal models for data analysis [9][10] - The success in the high-end and enterprise markets is driven by product excellence and collaboration with system integrators [11]