4 January 2026 | 11:23PM HKT Economics Research China: Three things in China Three quick highlights from China: n Significant rebound in official manufacturing PMI: China's NBS manufacturing PMI rose from 49.2 in November to 50.1 in December, surpassing both consensus and our expectations. This rebound contrasts with declining steel production seen in high-frequency data and the subdued Emerging Industries PMI released earlier. However, it aligns with the typical "quarter-end rebound" pattern observed in 20 ...

5 January 2026 | 7:01AM HKT Economics Research CHINA 2026 OUTLOOK Exploring New Growth Engines Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Chelsea Song +852-2978-0106 | chelsea.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andr ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of dividend-paying stocks as a reliable investment strategy during market volatility, highlighting their ability to provide steady income even when stock prices decline [3][5]. Dividend Stocks Overview - Procter & Gamble (PG) has raised its dividend for 69 consecutive years, currently yielding 2.88% with an annual payout of $4.23 per share, demonstrating resilience during market downturns [4][6]. - Coca-Cola (KO) has increased its dividend for 62 straight years, also yielding 2.88%, and offers a quarterly dividend of $0.51, showcasing its strong brand and consistent operating margins [7]. - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has a dividend yield of 2.53% and an annual payout of $5.20 per share, with a history of 62 years of dividend increases, supported by a strong balance sheet and diversified revenue streams [9]. - Realty Income (O), known as "The Monthly Dividend Company," has a 5.57% yield and has increased its payout for 30 consecutive years, benefiting from a diversified tenant base and predictable rental income [11]. Investment Strategy - Dividend-paying companies are attractive during downturns as they operate in essential industries, maintaining healthy cash flows even when consumer spending tightens [5]. - These stocks provide a dependable income stream that is less dependent on stock price movements, helping investors avoid panic selling during market declines [5].

Macy’s Inc. (NYSE:M) ranks among the best performing retail stocks in 2025. On November 28, Telsey Advisory Group boosted its price target on Macy’s Inc. (NYSE:M) to $22 from $17 while retaining a Market Perform rating on the company’s shares. The boost comes after Macy’s robust second-quarter earnings beat, where all three of the company’s flagship brands generated positive owned comparable sales. Macy’s Inc. (NYSE:M)’s second-quarter net sales of $4.8 billion topped guidance, while its adjusted earning ...

Summary of US Consumer Chartbook 4Q 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US consumer sector, analyzing labor market trends, income, consumption, sentiment, and credit conditions. Key Points Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience softer consumption growth in the near term due to slower job growth and elevated inflation, with a sequential improvement anticipated throughout 2026 [3][11] - A fiscal boost from higher tax refunds in 1Q 2026 is expected to support disposable income, although spending effects will be more gradual throughout the year [3][4] Consumer Spending Forecasts - Real personal consumption is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027 [4][8] - After a strong 2024 with a 3.1% growth, consumption growth is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026 [8] Labor Market Insights - Payroll growth has slowed, with an average of 62k jobs added monthly, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% by the end of 2025 [44][45] - Labor force participation is projected to decline slightly, influenced by restrictive immigration policies [52] Wealth and Income Dynamics - Household net wealth has increased by $59 trillion, or 50%, since 2019, reaching $176.3 trillion as of mid-2025 [19][92] - The top 20% of income earners hold 71% of household net wealth, indicating a K-shaped recovery where high-income consumers benefit more from wealth effects [19][20] Tax Refund Expectations - An estimated $40 billion increase in tax refunds is expected due to retroactive tax cuts, potentially rising to $60 billion if more benefits are distributed through refunds [30][31] - The average tax refund is projected to increase by approximately $450, marking the highest average in recent years [31] Consumer Sentiment and Spending Intentions - Consumer sentiment has declined, particularly among low- and middle-income households, with spending intentions softening for holiday purchases compared to the previous year [70][76] - Higher prices are cited as a significant barrier to increased holiday spending, especially in luxury and mid-luxury categories [76] Credit and Balance Sheet Conditions - Net worth remains elevated as asset growth outpaces liability growth, with household debt continuing to rise [104][113] - The personal saving rate has declined slightly, reflecting a drawdown of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic [101][96] Consumption Trends - Goods spending is expected to slow significantly in the near term due to price increases from tariffs, while services spending remains stable [85][82] - Despite a projected jump in disposable income in 1Q 2026, the spending effects of fiscal measures are expected to be more evenly distributed throughout the year [37] Additional Insights - The report highlights the potential for a K-shaped recovery, where high-income consumers are likely to benefit more from economic improvements, while low- and middle-income consumers face ongoing challenges [20][19] - The anticipated fiscal support from tax refunds and easing monetary policy may provide a more favorable backdrop for consumer spending in 2026 [3][11]

Core Insights - Target and Walmart reported strong Q3 earnings, exceeding expectations, which has sparked discussions about potential investment opportunities in these retail giants [1][3][4] Target Overview - Target's Q3 EPS was $1.78, beating expectations of $1.76 but down from $1.85 in the same quarter last year [3] - Q3 sales for Target decreased by over 1% year-over-year to $25.27 billion, slightly missing estimates of $25.35 billion, attributed to affordability pressures on consumer goods [3] - Target has cut its full-year profit outlook, now guiding FY26 EPS to $7.00-$8.00 from a previous range of $7.00-$9.00, reflecting a cautious stance on the holiday outlook [6] - FY26 EPS guidance represents a 17% drop from $8.86 in FY25, although FY27 EPS is projected to stabilize and rise by 9% to $7.94 [9] Walmart Overview - Walmart's Q3 sales rose 6% year-over-year to $179.49 billion, surpassing estimates of $177.14 billion [4] - Q3 EPS for Walmart was $0.62, exceeding estimates of $0.61 and up from $0.58 a year ago [4] - Walmart has raised its fiscal 2026 net sales growth guidance to 4.8%-5.1%, up from 3.75%-4.75%, and increased its full-year operating income guidance by nearly 400 basis points to a growth range of 8.5%-9.5% [5] - Annual earnings for Walmart are expected to rise 4% in FY26 and jump another 12% in FY27 to $2.92 per share [10] EPS Revisions and Market Outlook - Both Target and Walmart stocks currently hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a need for more compelling EPS revision trends for potential upside [11] - Walmart's optimistic outlook and EPS beat may enhance its market prospects, while Target's cautious approach could limit its growth potential [11]

Core Insights - Walmart Inc. is a significant investment in Bill Gates's portfolio, accounting for 1.86% of it [1] - RBC Capital has raised its price target for Walmart from $106 to $116, maintaining an "Outperform" rating, reflecting confidence in the company's market position and growth potential [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Position - RBC Capital's analyst Steven Shemesh expressed confidence in Walmart's leadership position and pricing discipline, which are expected to drive long-term earnings growth [2][3] - The company's focus on AI-driven efficiencies through partnerships, such as with OpenAI, is highlighted as a key growth strategy [3] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Sector Expansion - Walmart has partnered with Eli Lilly to offer the weight-loss drug Zepbound at its pharmacies, marking a significant move into the health and wellness sector [4] - The collaboration with Eli Lilly aligns with Walmart's ongoing efforts to expand its health services, which began with the launch of its first health center in 2019 [4] Group 3: Business Model and Offerings - Walmart operates a diverse business model that includes retail stores, eCommerce platforms, and membership clubs, providing a wide range of products from groceries to financial services [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenues increased by 7% for the quarter and 4% year to date, with all reportable segments showing year-over-year growth [13][14] - Operating income for the quarter was $1 billion, down from $1.4 billion in the comparable period last year, primarily due to net investment gains which were $433 million compared to $918 million last year [14] - Adjusted operating income totaled $621 million for the quarter, up 24% year over year, with insurance contributing $153 million to this increase [15][14] - Operating cash flows for the first nine months were $2.1 billion, and comprehensive income to shareholders was $793 million for the quarter [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Markel Insurance segment achieved a combined ratio of 93% for the quarter, improved from 97% last year, with underwriting gross written premiums up 11% year over year [3][18] - The industrial segment reported revenues of $1 billion, up 5% year over year, while adjusted operating income decreased by 9% to $101 million due to softening demand in the auto industry [20] - Consumer and other segment revenues were $291 million, up 10% year over year, with adjusted operating income of $17 million compared to break even last year [21][22] - Financial segment revenues increased by 16% to $162 million, but adjusted operating income decreased by 23% to $61 million due to prior year favorable loss development [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The international division showed strong growth with underwriting premiums up 25% for the quarter, driven by expanded territories and product offerings [17][52] - The U.S. wholesale and specialty division faced challenges, with a reported decline of 6% in premium volume due to the exit of certain product lines, but was relatively flat when excluding those lines [17][46] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving its core insurance business by exiting underperforming segments, making leadership changes, and enhancing accountability [2][4] - A new organizational structure has been implemented to streamline operations and improve profitability, with a focus on distinct profit and loss responsibilities for each business unit [27][28] - The company aims to enhance financial disclosures to provide better insights into performance and capital allocation [8][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the improvements made within the insurance segment, noting a commitment to maintaining a conservative approach to reserving and capital allocation [4][29] - The company is optimistic about future growth opportunities in both existing and new markets, particularly in the industrial and consumer sectors [5][34] - Management acknowledged the challenges in the current economic environment but emphasized the importance of maintaining a long-term focus on profitability and capital efficiency [4][30] Other Important Information - The company has returned approximately $1.9 billion to shareholders through share repurchases since the end of 2020, reducing the share count from 13.8 million to 12.6 million [7] - Investment operations yielded an 8.4% return on equity investments, with a book yield on fixed income of 3.5% [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expense ratio dynamics in the insurance division - Management acknowledged the current expense ratio of 36% is high compared to peers, but emphasized the importance of focusing on combined ratio and overall profitability while managing expenses [37][39][41] Question: Successes in U.S. wholesale and specialty - Management highlighted that growth in casualty lines is driven by rate increases, while property and professional lines face challenges [45][46][48] Question: Adverse development in international professional liability - Management confirmed that recent adverse developments were due to large claims from prior years, but overall profitability remains strong [56][57] Question: Capital deployment priorities - Management reiterated that share repurchases remain the primary capital allocation strategy, with ongoing sensitivity to market conditions [58][60] Question: Combined ratio opportunities internationally vs. U.S. - Management noted that while both markets have opportunities, the international segment has benefited from a focus on small and micro businesses with lower loss ratios [64][66][68]

Core Insights - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday (October 1 to October 8), the consumption in Minhang District, Shanghai reached 849 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [1] - The total foot traffic was 8.8577 million, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year growth, with an average transaction value of 96 yuan, up 7.9% [1] Consumption Growth Drivers - The commercial projects in Minhang District implemented various promotional measures, including the distribution of "Spring Shen Beautiful Welfare Coupons," "Minhang Good Goods" selection, car purchase subsidies, and themed activities, which contributed to sustained consumption growth [1] - Major commercial centers such as Shanghai MixC, Bailian South Shopping Center, and Qibao Link Real Estate Plaza were identified as key drivers of consumption growth [1] Key Commercial Areas Performance - The Wu Zhong Road business circle ranked first in sales with 209 million yuan, followed by Xinzhuang and Qibao business circles with 142 million yuan and 130 million yuan, respectively [1] - Ten business circles experienced year-on-year growth, with the Jiangchuan business circle showing the highest increase of 76.5%, benefiting from the growth of projects like Jinyue Lefang [1] Promotional Activities Impact - Various commercial entities in Minhang District hosted promotional activities, creating themed and immersive shopping experiences to stimulate consumer enthusiasm [2] - Bailian South Shopping Center saw a 36.19% year-on-year increase in sales during its 26th anniversary celebration, which included free and threshold-based lottery promotions [2] Consumption Voucher and Subsidy Policies - Since September 26, Minhang District has issued two rounds of shopping vouchers covering 24 commercial complexes, 159 brands, and 807 stores, with a total redemption of 6.3735 million yuan and an order amount of 26.7123 million yuan, achieving a redemption ratio of 1:4.2 [4] - The automotive consumption subsidy policy has been extended until October 31, with a slight increase of 2.05% in automotive sales during the holiday, totaling over 800 vehicles sold and generating over 110 million yuan in sales [5] Sector-Specific Performance - The gold and jewelry sector in Minhang District experienced a year-on-year sales growth of 39.3%, driven by high demand for new accessories and record-high international gold prices [6] - The restaurant sector also saw a year-on-year sales increase of 5.04% during the holiday period [6] Event-Driven Consumption - The 2025 Shanghai Rolex Masters achieved a record audience attendance, with expectations of over 240,000 attendees, of which over 70% are from outside the region [6] - A ticket-related consumption discount initiative was launched, involving 17 commercial entities and over 200 merchants, generating over 580,000 yuan in related consumption [6] Local Brand Promotion - The "Minhang Good Goods" initiative aimed to enhance the visibility of local brands through online and offline channels, resulting in nearly 110,000 yuan in sales from community markets and 8.437 million yuan in sales through the "Vipshop" app since its launch on September 14 [9] - The ongoing evaluation and selection of "Minhang Good Goods" has further stimulated regional consumption [9]

Group 1 - Macy's Inc. is considered one of the most undervalued retail stocks, with Morgan Stanley raising its price target to $16 from $12 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating [1] - Evercore ISI maintained a Hold rating on Macy's with a price target of $14, while Telsey Advisory raised its price target to $17 from $14, maintaining a Market Perform rating [3] - Macy's operates as an omnichannel retail store managing three brands: Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury, selling a variety of merchandise across 43 US states, the District of Columbia, Guam, and Puerto Rico [4]