转自：新华财经 国庆、中秋假期（10月1日至10月8日），上海市闵行区商务委对全区44家重点商业综合体进行了假期运营监测。双节期间，闵行区消费达到8.49亿元，同比 增长10.5%；客流达到885.77万人，同比增长2.5%；平均客单价96元，同比增长7.9%。 整体来看，闵行区商业项目通过"春申美好福利券"发放、"闵行好物"评选推广、购车补贴、各类主题活动等措施，整体消费持续增长。数据显示，大型商业 载体成为支撑消费增长的核心驱动力。其中，销售净增额前三名为上海万象城、百联南方购物中心、七宝领展广场。 重点商圈中，吴中路商圈以销售额2.09亿元排名第一，其次为莘庄商圈和七宝商圈，分别为1.42亿元和1.3亿元。同比增长的商圈有10个，增幅最高的商圈是 江川商圈，同比增长76.5%，主要受益于金悦乐方等调改项目的增长。 商业体推广活动持续发力 9月26日以来，闵行区已发放两轮购物消费券，覆盖全区24家商业综合体、159个品牌、807家门店，品类包括体育用品、零售百货、服装鞋帽、首饰配饰、 茶饮饮品、商超、汽车后市场、影院、酒店等。截至10月8日，已核销消费券637.35万元，累计订单额2671.23万元，核销 ...

Macy’s Inc. (NYSE:M) is one of the most undervalued retail stocks to invest in. On September 18, Morgan Stanley raised the firm’s price target on Macy’s Inc. (NYSE:M) to $16 from $12 while keeping an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The Most Successful Celebrity Beauty Company in the World A female customer shopping for beauty products in a modern store. The firm told investors that it updated its models for the company and several other retailers after their Q2 earnings. However, in a report release ...

Group 1 - The ISM services number came in weaker than expected at 50, indicating potential inflationary pressures in the service sector, which constitutes 60% of the CPI index [1][2] - Prices paid by service sector companies increased, suggesting that inflation in services may be more persistent than previously thought [1][2] - Employment index in the ISM report showed a slight improvement at 47.2%, indicating challenges in assessing the true state of the economy without government data [1][2] Group 2 - In the absence of government data, alternative indicators such as Red Book same-store retail sales and OpenTable restaurant data are crucial for assessing consumer health [1][2] - The consensus forecast for inflation is at 3% for the next 12 months, higher than the Fed's target of 2%, raising concerns about inflation risks if the economy does not slow down [2] - The Fed may need to consider rate hikes if inflation remains sticky and does not decrease as expected [2] Group 3 - Consumer spending has been resilient, but persistent inflation could lead to reduced real spending as prices rise [2] - Higher inflation for an extended period may result in higher interest rates, impacting borrowing costs and increasing delinquency rates on consumer credit [2] - The AI sector is becoming increasingly concentrated, with the top companies driving significant market performance, raising concerns about potential overvaluation [5][6] Group 4 - Historical data suggests that government shutdowns have minimal impact on market performance, with markets often rising during shutdown periods [21][22] - The upcoming earnings season is critical, with expectations for a 7% year-on-year gain in Q3 for the S&P 500, particularly strong in technology [29][30] - Valuations are elevated, with the S&P 500 trading at a 42% premium compared to a 20-year history, indicating potential risks for future returns [33][34]

The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) is included among the 12 Best Dividend Aristocrat Stocks to Invest in Right Now. Procter & Gamble (PG): A Dividend King with Over Six Decades of Increases The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) has a diverse portfolio of consumer goods that is marketed through Beauty, Grooming, Health Care, and Home Care segments, and it is based on a massive multinational scale. Operating in nearly 180 markets, it enjoys a powerful worldwide distribution network and long-lasting pa ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - Exports have stabilized sequentially amid a tariff truce, with nominal exports rising 0.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, following a decline of 0.4% in April [5][11] - Exports to Europe improved significantly, increasing by 9% cumulatively over the past three months, partly due to a ~10% depreciation of the RMB against the EUR since the end of January [3][11] - The outlook for export growth is cautious, with expectations of 0% nominal export growth for 2025, indicating a potential decline of approximately -5% year-on-year in the second half of the year [4] Summary by Sections Export Performance - In May 2025, exports totaled $316 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [6] - Exports to the US contracted at a milder pace of -8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted after a significant drop of -25% in April [11] - Consumer goods exports showed a rebound, aligning with their high elasticity of demand, while rare earth exports continued to decline [11] Import Trends - Imports totaled $213 billion in May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of -3.4% [6] - The decline in imports was driven by a persistent decrease in commodity volumes and prices, indicating weaker global and domestic demand [3][11] - Notable declines in specific products included unwrought copper and products (-16.9%), steel products (-20.0%), and crude petroleum oil (-22.1%) [6] Trade Balance - The trade balance for May 2025 was reported at $103 billion, an increase from $96 billion in April [6] - The overall trade balance for the first five months of 2025 reached $273 billion, compared to $298 billion in the same period of 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Market optimism is increasing due to anticipated trade deals, despite a modest contraction in real GDP of 0.3% in Q1, driven by strong imports and a robust private domestic demand growth of 3.0% [1] - Employment data shows an increase of 177k jobs in April, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%, although future labor market data may weaken due to tariff impacts [1][29] - The report anticipates three stages of tariff impacts: front-loading of demand, increased uncertainty, and eventual supply/demand reduction [15] Summary by Sections Economic Activity - Real GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1, primarily due to surging imports, while private domestic demand rose by 3.0% [16] - Strong consumption and investment in Q1 may be partially attributed to tariffs, with unit auto sales remaining high at 17.27 million in April [17][19] - The report forecasts a 1.4% increase in GDP for Q2, supported by front-loading activity and a decline in imports [19][73] Labor Market - The hiring rate was stable at 3.4% in March, but job openings fell, indicating potential future weakness in the labor market [26] - Continuing jobless claims reached their highest post-pandemic level, suggesting a possible rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4-4.5% in May [31] - April employment data reflects conditions prior to the April 2 tariff announcement, and subsequent data may show the effects of weak hiring [29] Tariff Impacts - The report outlines that the immediate impact of tariffs has increased uncertainty, leading to a pause in investment and hiring plans [25] - Tariffs on many goods from China are significantly high, which is expected to reduce imports and impact related sectors like manufacturing and transportation [34][40] - Planned layoffs due to tariffs have started to rise, indicating potential future job losses in manufacturing and other sectors [41] Inflation and Price Trends - Core PCE inflation was stronger than expected in Q1, with a slowdown to 2.6% YoY in March, and the report anticipates that inflation will largely be concentrated in goods prices [46][47] - The report suggests that the timing and magnitude of tariff-related impacts on the economy are difficult to estimate, with inflation likely to rise as tariffs remain high [49][78] Federal Reserve Outlook - The report expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a total of 125 basis points this year, starting in June, contingent on labor market data weakening [49][50] - The Fed is likely to maintain policy rates in the upcoming meeting, focusing on inflation and labor market conditions [50][51]