Summary of Container Shipping Global Primer: 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the container shipping industry, analyzing seven container shipping equities, with six rated as Underweight due to challenging supply and demand dynamics [2][11]. Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - **Capacity Adjustments**: The global container supply/demand model has been updated, with demand growth for 2026/27/28 revised down by -30/-100/-200 basis points to a 3.0% run rate, aligning closely with GDP growth expectations [4][9]. - **Supply Growth**: Effective supply growth is projected to increase from approximately 4% to 6% for 2026-2028 due to new orders. A return to Red Sea sailings in 1H26 is anticipated, but any earlier resumption could worsen overcapacity, potentially driving effective supply growth above 10% [5][119]. - **Freight Rates**: Freight rates are expected to decline further, following a temporary boost from General Rate Increases (GRI) attempts by carriers [5][11]. Long-term Trends - **Reshoring of Supply Chains**: The report highlights a shift towards reshoring, which is expected to reduce reliance on long-distance sea freight and increase demand for road freight as supply chains shorten [10][9]. - **Market Segmentation**: While some segments will continue to depend on global supply chains, the overall growth rate, particularly for long-distance shipping, is expected to slow, benefiting shorter-haul modes like trucks and rail [10][9]. Financial Outlook - **Equity Valuation**: Despite low price-to-book (P/B) multiples averaging 0.7x across the global container equity coverage, the report warns of downside risks to freight rates and earnings. The average price targets imply a -24% downside [11][134]. - **Company Ratings**: Six companies are rated Underweight (Maersk, COSCO Shipping Holding, Orient Overseas, Nippon Yusen, Mitsui OSK, Kawasaki Kisen), with one rated Equal-weight (SITC) [11][134]. Market Performance - **Container Trade Volumes**: Year-to-date global container trade volumes have increased by 4.7%, but growth rates are moderating, with a decline observed in Asia to North America routes, down -3.1% year-over-year [58][61]. - **Divergence in Trade Routes**: There is a notable divergence in container flows, with volumes from Asia to North America decreasing by -7% to -11%, while volumes to Europe have increased by over 10% [61][58]. Risks and Considerations - **Overcapacity**: The persistent oversupply in the market is a significant concern, with supply additions expected to outpace demand growth through 2027 [115][119]. - **Market Sentiment**: Investor sentiment remains cautious, with many equities already consensus underweights, reflecting the challenging fundamentals of the industry [9][11]. Conclusion - The container shipping industry faces significant challenges in the coming years, with supply growth outpacing demand and freight rates under pressure. The shift towards reshoring and changing trade routes may alter the landscape, but the overall outlook remains cautious due to persistent overcapacity and economic uncertainties.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported total net revenues of $56.9 million, a 5.1% increase from $54.1 million in Q3 2024 [22] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $29.7 million, compared to $27.6 million in Q3 2024 [22] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 increased to $38.8 million from $36.1 million in Q3 2024 [23] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for Q3 2025 were $4.27 and $4.25, respectively, compared to $3.97 and $3.95 for the same period last year [24] - For the first nine months of 2025, total net revenues were $170.5 million, a 6.8% increase from $159.6 million in the same period of 2024 [25] - Net income for the first nine months of 2025 was $96.5 million, up from $88.4 million in the prior year [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average charter rate per vessel per day increased by 10.7% in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024 [22] - The fleet on the water consists of 21 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 61,000 TEU and an average age of about 12 years [6] - The company has secured 100% of available days for Q3 2025 at an average rate of approximately $30,345 per day [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index declined to its lowest level in nearly two years by late September 2025, but stabilized and increased by 30% in October and early November [9] - The average second-hand price index rose by about 4.4% in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025 [9] - The global fleet expanded by 6% year-to-date, with recycling activity remaining subdued [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to a $20 million share repurchase plan, having repurchased 466,000 shares for approximately $10.5 million [4] - The company has extended charters for several vessels, indicating a focus on securing long-term contracts [5] - The company is strategically positioned with minimal risk of oversupply due to a limited new building pipeline in smaller vessel segments [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the market remains fragile with downside risks stemming from persistent uncertainty and potential protectionist measures [11] - The company expects a dip in containerized trade growth to 0.7% in 2026 and a further decline of 6% in 2027 [13] - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding future profitability, supported by strong forward coverage [8] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share for Q3 2025, reflecting an annualized yield of approximately 5% [4] - The company’s total outstanding bank debt stood at about $224 million as of September 30, 2025, with a cost of debt around 5.9% [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for scheduled off-hire days for Q4 and 2026 - Management indicated a very light dry docking schedule with likely off-hire for Q4 being almost zero [39][40] Question: Impact of container ship ordering on rates - Management acknowledged that increased ordering could pressure rates from 2027 onward, but emphasized their strong coverage for 2027 [41][42] Question: Differences in the market pre-2020 and future expectations - Management highlighted that the previous oversupply and pandemic-related demand spikes significantly influenced market conditions [43][44] Question: Willingness to order additional tonnage - Management stated there is always a possibility to order more vessels, but they are currently comfortable with their positioning [50] Question: Medium-term leverage target - Management indicated a general strategy to maintain leverage around 50%, adjusting based on market conditions [51]

Core Viewpoint - Euroholdings Ltd reported improved financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with a focus on growth in the tanker sector following a strategic shift after a change in shareholder base [4][5]. Financial Highlights Third Quarter 2025 Financial Highlights - Total net revenues were $3.0 million, a 29.4% decrease from $4.2 million in Q3 2024, attributed to a reduction in the average number of vessels operating [9]. - Net income for the quarter was $1.5 million, or $0.55 earnings per share, compared to $1.0 million or $0.34 per share in Q3 2024 [12][13]. - Adjusted EBITDA was $1.4 million, up from $1.0 million in the same quarter of the previous year [9][13]. Nine Months 2025 Financial Highlights - Total net revenues for the first nine months were $8.7 million, a 27.4% decrease from $12.1 million in the same period of 2024 [15]. - Net income for the nine-month period was $13.4 million, compared to $4.7 million in the first nine months of 2024 [22]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the nine months was $3.1 million, down from $4.8 million in the same period of 2024 [23]. Recent Developments - On November 3, 2025, Euroholdings signed a Memorandum of Agreement to acquire a medium-range product tanker vessel for $31.83 million, with delivery expected in mid-November 2025 [4]. - The company formed an independent committee to evaluate the acquisition, and on November 14, 2025, signed a loan agreement for $20.0 million to finance part of the purchase [4]. - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share for Q3 2025, maintaining an annualized yield of about 8% [4]. Operational Insights - The average time charter equivalent rate for vessels in Q3 2025 was $16,580 per day, a 17.7% increase from $14,087 in Q3 2024 [7]. - Average daily vessel operating expenses increased to $7,902 per vessel per day in Q3 2025 from $7,431 in Q3 2024, primarily due to higher general and administrative expenses [8]. - The fleet profile includes two feeder container carriers and one product tanker, with a total carrying capacity of 90,879 dwt after the acquisition of M/V Hellas Avatar [26].

Core Insights - China's exports have significantly supported the global container market despite ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., with its global export share increasing to approximately 37 percent in 2023 from 33 percent in the previous year [1] - Maersk has revised its global container market volume growth forecast upwards, now expecting a growth of 4 percent in 2025, an increase from the previous range of 2 percent to 4 percent [2] - The demand for container shipping has shown remarkable resilience, with Maersk reporting a 7 percent increase in volume for the third quarter, moving 3.4 million containers [3] Export Growth - China's export growth has accelerated in all regions except North America, with exports to the U.S. declining by 27 percent while exports to ASEAN and the EU increased by 15.6 percent and 14.1 percent respectively [4] - The strong export growth from China is attributed to its widely available production capacity and competitive products, indicating a sustained momentum in exports [3][4] Company Performance - Maersk's volume growth reflects the overall optimism in the market, particularly in East-to-West trade lanes, which saw a 9.6 percent increase [3] - The company's Gemini Cooperation vessel-sharing alliance with Hapag-Lloyd has resulted in a $50 million cost benefit in the third quarter [5] - Maersk has raised its full-year guidance for pre-tax operating profit, increasing the lower end from $2 billion to $3 billion, while maintaining the higher end at $3.5 billion [5]

Financial Performance - The company's net revenues for Q2 2025 were $5723 million, a decrease of 25% compared to $5872 million in Q2 2024[9, 63] - Net income for Q2 2025 was $2986 million, a decrease of 267% compared to $4075 million in Q2 2024[9, 63] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $3932 million, a decrease of 69% compared to $4225 million in Q2 2024[9, 63] - For the first six months of 2025, net revenues were $11358 million, an increase of 77% compared to $10544 million in the first six months of 2024[63] - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $070 per share for Q2 2025[10] Fleet and Operations - The current fleet consists of 22 vessels with an average age of 128 years and a carrying capacity of 675k TEU[17] - The company has repurchased 463,074 shares of its common stock for approximately $105 million under a $20 million share repurchase plan[13] - For 2025, 9660% of available days have been secured at an average rate of ~$28,242/day[23] - For 2026, approximately 666% of available days are already covered at an average rate of $31,610/day[23] - The company signed an agreement to sell M/V Marcos V for $50 million, with delivery scheduled for October 2025[15]

Group 1: Yara International ASA - Yara International ASA (YARIY) is a global provider of fertilizers and industrial solutions [1] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 and a Value Score of A [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 10.1% over the last 60 days [1] - Yara has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 10.26, significantly lower than the industry average of 17.60 [1] Group 2: COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. - COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. (CICOY) operates in container shipping and terminal operations [2] - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 1 and a Value Score of A [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has risen by 7.4% over the last 60 days [2] - COSCO SHIPPING has a P/E ratio of 6.75, compared to the industry average of 16.10 [2] Group 3: Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited - Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (FRFHF) is involved in property and casualty insurance and investment management services [3] - The company carries a Zacks Rank of 1 and a Value Score of A [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 14.4% over the last 60 days [3] - Fairfax Financial has a P/E ratio of 8.84, lower than the industry average of 10.80 [3]