Core Insights - National Bureau of Statistics data indicates that from January to October 2025, the production of coke and steel continues to grow year-on-year, while the production of crude steel and pig iron shows a decline [1] Production Data Summary - From January to October, the national coke production reached 41,905 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. In October, coke production was 4,190 million tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, but a month-on-month decrease of 1.6%, marking the second consecutive month of decline [1] - National steel production from January to October totaled 121,759 million tons, up 4.7% year-on-year. However, in October, steel production decreased by 0.9% year-on-year and 4.5% month-on-month, amounting to 11,864 million tons [1] - Pig iron production from January to October was 71,137 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year. In October, pig iron production was 6,555 million tons, the lowest monthly level since March 2024, with year-on-year and month-on-month declines of 7.9% and 0.8%, respectively [1] - Crude steel production from January to October was 81,787 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. In October, crude steel production was 7,200 million tons, also the lowest monthly level since March 2024, with year-on-year and month-on-month declines of 12.1% and 2.0%, respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The production of coke and steel in China showed a year-on-year increase in the first nine months of 2025, while the output of crude steel and pig iron continued to decline [1] Group 1: Coke Production - In the first nine months of 2025, the national coke production reached 37.716 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [1] - In September 2025, the coke production was 4.256 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.0% but a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [1] - The average daily coke production in September was estimated at 1.42 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [1] Group 2: Pig Iron Production - The national pig iron production in the first nine months of 2025 totaled 64.586 million tons, which is a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [1] - In September 2025, the pig iron production was 6.605 million tons, down 2.4% year-on-year and 5.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline [1] - The average daily pig iron production in September was estimated at 2.2 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.2% [1] Group 3: Crude Steel Production - The crude steel production in the first nine months of 2025 was 74.625 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.9% [1] - In September 2025, the crude steel production was 7.349 million tons, which is a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.0%, continuing a downward trend for the fourth consecutive month [1] - The average daily crude steel production in September was estimated at 2.45 million tons, indicating a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [1] Group 4: Steel Production - The total steel production in the first nine months of 2025 reached 110.385 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - In September 2025, the steel production was 12.421 million tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 5.1% and a month-on-month increase of 1.2% [1] - The average daily steel production in September was estimated at 4.14 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.5% [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy**, particularly its **industrial production**, **fixed asset investment**, **retail sales**, and **property market** performance in August 2023. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Weak Economic Activity**: China's activity data in August showed broad weakness, missing market expectations, with industrial production growth declining to **5.2% year-on-year** from **5.7%** in July, primarily due to weaker-than-expected exports [1][9]. 2. **Fixed Asset Investment Decline**: Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth fell to **-6.8% year-on-year** in August from **-5.2%** in July, marking a new low since March 2020. This decline was attributed to adverse weather, local construction restrictions, a prolonged property downturn, and a lack of urgency from policymakers [1][12]. 3. **Retail Sales Slowdown**: Retail sales growth moderated to **3.4% year-on-year** in August from **3.7%** in July, mainly due to falling online goods sales, particularly in home appliances and communication equipment [1][13]. 4. **Services Sector Performance**: The services industry output index showed better performance, growing **5.6% year-on-year** in August, only slightly down from **5.8%** in July, indicating resilience in the services sector [1][14]. 5. **Property Market Weakness**: The property market continued to show signs of weakness, with new home starts down **20.3% year-on-year** and property sales declining by **10.3%** in volume terms in August [1][15]. 6. **Labor Market Conditions**: The nationwide unemployment rate increased to **5.3%** in August from **5.2%** in July, indicating ongoing labor market challenges [1][17]. 7. **GDP Growth Forecast**: Despite the sluggish domestic demand, the GDP tracking model suggests a slight upside risk to the Q3 real GDP growth forecast of **4.6% year-on-year**, driven by industrial production and services sector performance [1][18]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector-Specific Performance**: The decline in industrial production was led by slower output growth in ferrous metal smelting, power generation, and general equipment industries, which offset gains in non-ferrous smelting [1][9][25]. - **Investment Growth by Sector**: Year-on-year growth in manufacturing, infrastructure, and property investment dropped significantly in August, indicating broad-based weakness across sectors [1][12]. - **Consumer Behavior Trends**: The decline in online sales growth reflects changing consumer behavior, with expectations of further slowdown due to unfavorable base effects [1][13]. - **Policy Implications**: Incremental and targeted easing measures are deemed necessary in the coming quarters to address the ongoing economic challenges, despite the resilient export performance [1][18]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the Chinese economy and its various sectors.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Date**: July 25, 2025 - **Analysts**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Key Takeaways Production and Sales of Industrial Goods - Average crude steel output from key steel mills was 2.141 million tons in mid-July 2025, reflecting a 2.1% increase compared to early July [1] - Planned production of household air conditioners is expected to decline by 7.1% year-over-year in August [1] - Passenger vehicle (PV) sales are projected at 1.85 million units in July, marking an 8% year-over-year increase but an 11% month-over-month decrease, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales at 1.01 million units [1] - Shipbuilding delivery volume for the first half of 2025 was 24.13 million compensated gross tons (CGT), down 3.5% year-over-year [1] Infrastructure and Property Developments - Construction has commenced on a massive hydro station at the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, with a total investment of RMB 1.2 trillion [2] - Water conservancy investment in China reached RMB 532.9 billion in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 6.3% year-over-year [2] - Renovation of old urban communities saw 16,500 new starts, achieving approximately 66% of the annual target in the first half of 2025 [2] Supply Policies - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) are working to improve standards for recognizing low-price dumping and regulating market price order [3] - The National Energy Administration (NEA) has issued a notice to check coal overproduction in eight major coal-producing provinces for 2024 and year-to-date 2025 [3] Building Materials Activity - Weekly cement shipments in July 2025 were 665 million tons, with a year-to-date total of 2,778 million tons, reflecting a 56% increase [4] - Daily molten iron production was reported at 2,422 thousand tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.1% [4] - Planned production of battery materials in July 2025 includes 145.1 GWh of batteries, a 1% increase year-over-year, while lithium production is expected to reach 102.2 thousand tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), a 3% increase [4] Additional Insights - The hydro station project is significant for future energy supply and infrastructure development in the region, indicating a strong government push towards renewable energy sources [8] - Supply-side policies may lead to increased market stability and reduced competition pressures in the materials sector [3] - The decline in household AC production and fluctuations in vehicle sales may indicate broader economic trends affecting consumer demand [1][2] Conclusion The conference call highlighted a mixed outlook for the Greater China materials sector, with positive developments in infrastructure and energy projects, but challenges in consumer goods production and sales. The ongoing supply-side policies are expected to play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics in the coming months.

Industry Trend - China made further headway in June in its bid to tackle oversupply of key industrial commodities [1] - Crude steel production leading declines in construction materials [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is classified as Attractive [6]. Core Insights - More steel mills have received production control notices, indicating tighter supply conditions in the steel market [9]. - Cement and long steel products consumption were affected by holidays and rainy weather, leading to fluctuations in demand [9]. - Planned production in the lithium battery supply chain has seen a mild increase in May, reflecting ongoing investment in this sector [9]. - Total investment in projects that started construction in April was approximately Rmb 3.2 trillion, representing a decrease of 8% month-over-month and 20% year-over-year, while the year-to-date figure is up 16% year-over-year [9]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - Jiangsu and Shaanxi provinces have been ordered to reduce their annual crude steel production by 6 million tons and 1 million tons, respectively [2]. - Daily output of crude steel from key enterprises was reported at 2.202 million tons at the end of April, showing a decrease of 1.2% compared to mid-April but a slight increase of 0.1% year-over-year [2]. Market Activity - PV retail sales reached 1.755 million units in April, marking a year-over-year increase of 14.5% but a month-over-month decline of 9.4% [3]. - NEV sales totaled 905,000 units in April, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 33.9% but a month-over-month decrease of 8.7% [3]. - Excavator sales in April were estimated at around 22,000 units, up 17% year-over-year [3]. Building Materials - Weekly cement shipments in May were reported at 175.3 billion Rmb, with North China showing a 51% share, down 3.3 percentage points year-over-year [4]. - The investment in new projects started in April was Rmb 3.2 trillion, down 8% month-over-month and 20% year-over-year [4]. Consumption Trends - Weekly steel apparent consumption was reported at 21.8 million tons year-to-date, with long products down 23% and flat products down 6% compared to the previous year [4]. - Glass inventory increased by 3% month-over-month and 6% year-over-year, indicating stable demand in the glass sector [4].