Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ: TCOM) is considered one of the most undervalued stocks on NASDAQ according to Wall Street analysts, despite a recent target price reduction by Benchmark to $72 from $82 while maintaining a Buy recommendation [1][7]. Financial Performance - The Q4 results showed a solid performance with diluted adjusted earnings per share increasing by 14% year-over-year, surpassing consensus estimates [1][2]. - The earnings beat was primarily driven by higher transaction volumes, particularly in the accommodation reservation and packaged tour segments, both of which grew by over 20% [2]. - Q4 net revenue increased by 21% year-over-year, also exceeding analyst expectations [2]. Future Guidance - The company provided in-line guidance for Q1, which was described as "arguably conservative" [3]. - Revenue growth is expected to be 14% in 2026; however, margins are projected to contract due to increased reinvestment needs, which contributed to the target price reduction by Benchmark [3]. Company Overview - Trip.com Group Limited operates as a one-stop travel platform with brands including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner, and is based in Singapore [4].

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group's shares fell 3% to a 17-month low amid an ongoing government anti-monopoly investigation, despite reporting significant profit increases for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 [2][3]. Financial Performance - Trip's net profit nearly doubled to 4.3 billion yuan (approximately $614 million) in Q4 2025, with revenue increasing by 21% to 15.4 billion yuan (around $2.2 billion) [4]. - The full-year profit also nearly doubled to $4.8 billion [4]. Market Context - The travel market showed strong resilience in 2025, with inbound travel being a key growth driver for economic development and job creation [5]. - Trip.com Group maintains a market capitalization of over $30 billion, making it one of the most valuable travel companies globally, larger than Expedia but smaller than Booking and Airbnb [6]. Corporate Governance Changes - Two co-founders, Min Fan and Qi Ji, resigned from their positions on the board, with Fan also stepping down as president [7]. - The company appointed two new independent directors, May Yihong Wu and Iris Yang Xiao, to enhance board diversity and expertise [8]. Leadership Insights - CEO Jane Sun emphasized the importance of inbound travel for economic growth [5]. - Chairman James Liang expressed optimism about AI adoption and its role in sustainable long-term development [5].

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM) is identified as a high growth international stock, with a maintained Buy rating but a reduced price target from $85 to $78 ahead of its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings call [1] Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Target - Bank of America Securities analyst Joyce Ju has lowered the price target for Trip.com from $85 to $78 while maintaining a Buy rating [1] - 92% of analysts covering Trip.com maintain a Buy rating, indicating strong overall bullish sentiment on Wall Street [4] - The 12-month median price target from analysts suggests more than 50% upside from the current stock level [4] Group 2: Financial Projections and Growth Expectations - Joyce Ju has reduced the non-GAAP net profit estimates for Trip.com for 2026-2027 by approximately 10% to 12% due to an ongoing Anti-Monopoly investigation [2] - Despite the lowered profit estimates, growth expectations for Trip.com remain robust, projected at 13% to 15% for 2026-2027, driven by strong Chinese travel demand and the company's market leadership [2]

Core Viewpoint - China's hotel industry is experiencing a paradox where record numbers of travelers are leading to declining room rates, largely attributed to the discounting practices of Trip.com Group Ltd [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of Trip.com on Hotel Operators - Hotel operators, such as those in Zhejiang province, report that nightly rates have fallen to levels not seen in over a decade due to Trip.com's frequent discount campaigns [2][3]. - Operators are compelled to cut prices by at least 15% to maintain visibility on Trip.com, which has become essential for connecting travelers with small operators [3][4]. - The dominance of Trip.com, which controls approximately 56% of China's online travel market, has contributed to a recovery in domestic tourism, with nearly 5 billion trips recorded in the first three quarters of 2025 [6]. Group 2: Regulatory Concerns and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is investigating Trip.com for alleged antitrust violations, focusing on its market position and the deflationary effects on the hotel sector [4][5]. - Revenue per room in China remained flat in 2025, contrasting with gains in other Asian markets, indicating a stagnation in profitability despite increased demand [5]. - The hotel industry faces challenges such as oversupply and cautious consumer spending, leading to significant losses as hotels reduce rates to fill vacancies [7]. Group 3: Exclusive Arrangements and Market Practices - Trip.com's "er xuan yi" exclusivity arrangements limit competition by preventing top-tier merchants from listing on rival platforms, which has drawn regulatory scrutiny [8][9]. - Merchants not bound by these exclusivity agreements report being pressured to offer the lowest prices on Trip.com's platform to avoid penalties like reduced search rankings [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [3][12]. Core Insights - Domestic growth is stable while overseas growth continues to be high, with the company expanding its user share and influence. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 31.86 billion, RMB 20.76 billion, and RMB 23.16 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][12]. - A valuation of 23x PE for 2026 is set, leading to a target market capitalization of RMB 476.4 billion, equivalent to HKD 523.3 billion, with a target price of HKD 733 [3][12]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 18.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 6.35 billion, up 11.73%, and adjusted operating profit was RMB 6.13 billion, reflecting a 12.2% increase. Net profit attributable to shareholders surged to RMB 19.89 billion, a 194.01% increase, largely due to partial investment profit sales [3][13]. - The company’s revenue growth in transportation accelerated due to peak season and overseas demand, while hotel growth remained in double digits but showed signs of sequential slowdown. Group tours have seen a decline in growth since Q1 2025, attributed to a shift towards independent travel and regional risks [3][13]. Performance Metrics - The adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to be 30.5% in 2025, with a slight decline expected in subsequent years. The company has maintained stable profit margins despite increased competition in overseas markets [3][12][13]. - The report highlights that the company has increased its investment in Trip, leading to a rise in marketing expenses, which has contributed to rapid growth in overseas markets and an increase in user share [3][13].

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group Limited is notifying holders of its 1.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2027 about their right to require the company to repurchase these notes for cash on July 1, 2025, under specific terms outlined in the Indentures [1][2][3] Group 1: Repurchase Right Details - Holders can require the company to repurchase all or a portion of their Exchangeable Notes, with a minimum amount of US$200,000 or integral multiples of US$1,000 [2][3] - The repurchase price will be 100% of the principal amount plus any accrued and unpaid interest up to July 1, 2025 [2] - The total outstanding amount of Exchangeable Notes as of May 27, 2025, is US$500,000,000, which means the total cash purchase price could reach US$500,000,000 if all notes are surrendered [2] Group 2: Timeline and Procedures - The opportunity to exercise the 2025 Repurchase Right starts on May 28, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. and ends on June 27, 2025, at 5:00 p.m. [3] - Holders must follow specific transmittal procedures outlined in the 2025 Repurchase Right Notice to exercise their rights [3] - Holders can withdraw previously tendered Exchangeable Notes until June 27, 2025 [3] Group 3: Company Overview - Trip.com Group Limited is a leading global one-stop travel platform, offering a comprehensive suite of travel products and services [7] - The company operates under various brands, including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner, and aims to provide cost-effective travel solutions [7] - Founded in 1999 and listed on Nasdaq in 2003 and HKEX in 2021, the company continues to expand its reach among travelers worldwide [7]