农历新年期间，不少东亚及东南亚目的地受惠于长假期而录得强劲的入境增长，其中越南、韩国及印度 尼西亚为增长最快的市场，各地主要城市如首尔、胡志明市及峇里岛的预订量同比均录得超过70%的升 幅，展现亚太区旅游回暖的强劲势头。 内地仍为港人及亚洲旅客欢度农历新年的热门目的地之一，而来自欧洲及大洋洲入境中国内地的旅客量 亦明显上升，其中英国及新西兰旅客同比增长超过150%，主要旅游城市包括上海、北京及广州。此 外，厦门与深圳的入境增长亦为显著，分别上升达60%及90%。 春节临近，据携程集团(09961)旗下Trip.com最新航班及酒店数据，亚太区短至中程旅程仍为港人旅游首 选，日本、泰国、韩国、菲律宾、越南、马来西亚、新加坡及印度尼西亚持续成为热门旅游目的地，长 线旅程则以澳洲及英国最受青睐。中短途行程占整体约六成，反映港人偏好文化体验与休闲度假兼具的 旅游模式。 数据显示，今年港人农历新年的平均旅程长度约为7.7天，约四成香港旅客在出发前31至60天进行预 订，近一半香港旅客甚至提早2个月以上进行预订，其他市场如中国台湾、新加坡及日本亦呈现类似趋 势，显示各地旅客均提早部署农历长假期，希望能够制订最心仪的旅游行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how Huazhu has leveraged high commission rates to enhance its performance, positioning itself as a leading player in the hotel industry despite challenges faced by its franchisees [4][7][36]. Group 1: Commission Structure and Revenue - Huazhu's overall commission rate is estimated to reach 12%, significantly higher than Ctrip's hotel booking commission rate of approximately 8%-10% [4][26]. - In 2025, Huazhu's total revenue is projected to be 800 billion, with franchisees contributing 703 billion, and Huazhu earning 87 billion from franchisees, resulting in a commission rate of 12.38% [25][26]. - Huazhu has managed to collect service fees from Ctrip, amounting to 1.12 billion and 1.46 billion in 2023 and 2024, respectively, effectively recouping nearly half of its commission expenses [11][12]. Group 2: Franchisee Challenges - Many franchisees report difficulties due to a lack of distance protection, leading to multiple franchises opening within close proximity, which has resulted in declining single-store revenue [7][43]. - Franchisees are increasingly dissatisfied, with reports of high turnover among store managers and complaints about operational inefficiencies [41][46]. - The average occupancy rate and daily room price for Huazhu's franchisees have declined, with single-store revenue dropping from 637 million to 630 million [43][44]. Group 3: Membership and User Base - Huazhu has built a robust membership system, with over 300 million members as of Q3 2025, contributing significantly to its order volume [15][16]. - The central reservation system accounted for 65.1% of Huazhu's room nights, indicating a lower reliance on OTA platforms compared to competitors [16][17]. Group 4: Expansion and Market Strategy - Huazhu has aggressively expanded its franchise model, increasing the number of franchise hotels from 5,746 to 10,380 between 2020 and 2024 [30][31]. - The company has focused on upgrading older hotels, with the proportion of outdated stores dropping from 29% to 4%, while newer versions have increased from 34% to 71% [32][35]. - Despite the rapid expansion, the competitive landscape has intensified, leading to franchisee concerns about profitability and market saturation [38][46].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group is under investigation for alleged monopolistic practices, including abuse of market dominance, as announced by the State Administration for Market Regulation on January 14 [2][3]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation is based on prior checks and is conducted under the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China [2][3]. - Ctrip has faced multiple inquiries from local regulatory bodies prior to the investigation, with accusations of practices such as "forcing merchants to choose" and price manipulation [4][5]. - Ctrip's official response indicates cooperation with regulatory authorities and a commitment to maintaining normal business operations [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Performance - Ctrip holds a dominant position in the OTA industry, with a projected market share of 56% in China's OTA market for 2024, significantly ahead of competitors [8]. - The company has experienced substantial revenue growth, with net revenues of 200.39 billion, 445.10 billion, and 532.94 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, and 470.11 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [9]. - The net profit attributable to Ctrip was 14.03 billion, 99.18 billion, and 170.67 billion yuan for the same periods, with a gross margin of 81% in 2025 [9][10]. Group 3: Pricing Practices - Ctrip's "Price Adjustment Assistant" has been criticized for unilaterally modifying hotel room prices, leading to complaints from merchants about forced price reductions [6][7]. - The system is designed to ensure competitive pricing but has been described as a "one-sided coercion" by hotel operators [6]. - Complaints from users about fluctuating hotel prices during peak seasons have also surfaced, indicating potential issues with pricing transparency [8].

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated an investigation into Ctrip Group for alleged monopolistic practices, while the company has stated it will cooperate with the investigation and maintain normal business operations [1]. Group 1: Regulatory Investigation - Ctrip Group is under investigation for suspected abuse of market dominance according to the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China [1]. - The company has faced multiple regulatory discussions in 2025 regarding practices such as "forced choice" and unfair pricing interventions [1]. - Ctrip's stock price fell by 6.49% to 569.5 HKD per share following the announcement of the investigation [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Competitors - Ctrip is a leading player in the Chinese Online Travel Agency (OTA) sector, having undergone significant business development and acquisitions [2]. - The company holds a market share of 56% in the OTA sector as of 2024, maintaining a dominant position [2]. - Ctrip targets the mid-to-high-end travel market, primarily serving consumers from high-tier cities, including young professionals and business travelers [2]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Ctrip's net operating revenue reached 18.3 billion RMB in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16% due to strong travel demand [3]. - The international OTA platform bookings grew by approximately 60% year-on-year, with inbound tourism bookings increasing by over 100% [3]. - Outbound hotel and flight bookings have risen to 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The National Market Supervision Administration of China has initiated an antitrust investigation against Trip.com Group Limited for alleged abuse of market dominance and monopolistic practices [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Trip.com Group Limited is a leading one-stop travel platform globally, operating brands such as Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner, and Qunar [1] - The company was listed on the NASDAQ in 2003 and subsequently on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2021 [1] Group 2: Allegations and Complaints - The Yunnan Province Tourism Homestay Industry Association has reported multiple complaints from its members regarding Trip.com and other online travel agencies (OTAs) using their market dominance to impose unfair practices [1] - Allegations include the implementation of "pick one from two" clauses, arbitrary commission increases, unfair trading conditions, and traffic blocking [1] Group 3: Regulatory Actions - In August 2025, the Guizhou Provincial Market Supervision Administration held discussions with Trip.com and four other travel platform companies regarding potential issues such as "pick one from two," interference with merchant pricing through technology, contract breaches, price fraud, and price gouging [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities has initiated a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group-S (09961) with a target price of 660 HKD, citing manageable short-term impacts from public opinion and international political fluctuations on outbound tourism [5]. Financial Projections - The firm forecasts that by 2026, Trip.com Group's domestic revenue will grow by 9%, outbound revenue by 12%, and pure overseas revenue by 34%, leading to an overall revenue growth rate of 13% and an adjusted net profit of 22.58 billion RMB [5]. - The current valuation stands at approximately 16.5 times earnings, which is below the historical average of 18 times, suggesting a buying opportunity during price dips [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Citic Securities believes that the company's market share as a leading Online Travel Agency (OTA) is unlikely to decrease in the long term, with minimal impact on overall performance [5]. - The report anticipates that domestic hotel prices will stabilize and recover gradually, with a relatively stable competitive landscape, allowing Trip.com to maintain a leading growth rate in its domestic hotel business [5]. - Trip.com is expected to drive continued high growth in its overseas business, enabling the company to enhance its market share and profit release [5].

Core Viewpoint - The primary issue facing the Chinese economy and enterprises is the need to reduce "involution," which is characterized as ineffective competition leading to a zero-sum or negative-sum game, particularly due to resource bottlenecks [3][15]. Economic Challenges - Many industries in China are experiencing demand growth that lags behind supply growth, resulting in price reductions and increased difficulties for enterprises [3][15]. - The tourism industry exemplifies this trend, where domestic tourism numbers are increasing moderately, but supply growth (e.g., hotels, attractions) is outpacing demand, leading to price declines of 7% to 10% [4][16]. Demand Creation Strategies - To address the issue of involution, it is crucial to create more demand, particularly through increasing consumer demand rather than relying solely on investment [4][16]. - Expanding foreign demand, especially in inbound tourism, is identified as a significant opportunity, with potential for substantial GDP contributions if inbound tourism can reach 1% to 2% of the economy [5][18]. Consumer Spending Enhancement - The current economic environment is characterized by deflation, with many consumers hesitant to spend due to economic uncertainty. A proposed solution is to distribute cash directly to consumers through fiscal deficits, potentially amounting to 2% to 3% of GDP [6][19]. - This approach is deemed appropriate given China's production capacity and current deflationary pressures, which would mitigate inflation risks typically associated with cash distribution [7][19]. Addressing Declining Birth Rates - The declining birth rate poses a significant risk to the economy, with births dropping from over 18 million in 2016 to approximately 8 million in the current year, a reduction of over 50% [8][20]. - To counteract this trend, financial support should be directed towards young people, who are most in need of assistance for family planning and child-rearing [8][20]. Work-Life Balance and Education Reform - There is a call for reducing overall working hours and increasing vacation time to improve work-life balance, which could encourage family growth [10][21]. - Education reform is essential to reduce the current "involution" in the education system, which discourages young people from having children due to the pressures of excessive competition and examination [11][22]. Summary of Recommendations - The proposed measures to reduce involution in Chinese society include: increasing foreign tourism, distributing cash to consumers, encouraging higher birth rates, providing more vacation time, and reducing examination pressures [12][23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth potential of China's inbound tourism market, which has lagged behind domestic and outbound tourism in terms of growth rate and GDP contribution [4] - The inbound tourism market is primarily driven by two factors: the release of visa-free policies and the promotion of Chinese culture abroad, leading to a positive cycle of cultural and tourism integration [5] - The inbound tourism market in China has seen rapid growth since 2023, indicating the onset of a golden development period for inbound tourism [5] Group 2 - Trip.com, as a leading OTA, is benefiting from the inbound tourism boom, with a focus on the Asia-Pacific region and a strategy of gradual international growth [6] - Tongcheng Travel is expanding into international markets, with significant year-on-year growth in international flight and hotel bookings expected in 2024 [7] - Zhongxin Tourism, which started with outbound tourism, is gradually developing its inbound tourism business, having established a subsidiary for inbound services in March 2024 [8]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the sentiment in the market has cooled down, with a slight decrease in the proportion of rising stocks in the CSI 300 index, which remains above 50%, suggesting a cautious outlook for the near term [2] - The new stock fundraising scale has decreased month-on-month, with November 2025 seeing 11 new stocks listed and a total fundraising amount of 10.188 billion yuan, although it still maintains a level above 10 billion yuan [3] - The report predicts negative year-on-year profit growth for industries such as coal, cement, float glass, and ordinary steel, while fuel refining profits are expected to see slight positive growth [4] Group 2 - The inbound tourism market in China is entering a high-quality development phase, driven by visa-free policies and cultural outreach, with significant growth potential for leading OTA companies like Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel [5] - Ctrip is positioned as a leading OTA benefiting from the inbound tourism boom, while Tongcheng Travel is rapidly expanding its international business [5] - The report recommends a "buy" rating for Ctrip Group and maintains a "buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel, while also giving an "accumulate" rating for Zhongxin Tourism [5] Group 3 - The report highlights that China's copper smelting plants are expected to reduce production by over 10% in 2026, which is anticipated to support a bullish outlook for copper prices [6] - The copper market is facing a shortage that is affecting electrolytic copper, with imbalances in inventory potentially leading to increased tightness outside the US [6] - Recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jinchuan Group, with a focus on companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Jiangxi Copper [6] Group 4 - The report tracks high-frequency data on the real estate market, indicating a cumulative transaction of 706,000 new homes across 20 cities, reflecting a 13% decrease year-on-year [7] - In major cities, Beijing saw a 19% decline in new home transactions, while Shanghai and Shenzhen experienced decreases of 5% and 31%, respectively [7] - Conversely, the second-hand housing market showed a slight increase of 3.1% in transactions across 10 cities, with notable increases in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [7]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Trip.com and Tongcheng Travel, and an "Accumulate" rating for Zhongxin Tourism [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese inbound tourism market is entering a golden development period, driven by visa-free policies and cultural exports, with significant growth potential [1][20]. - The inbound tourism market has shown rapid growth since 2023, with inbound visitor numbers expected to increase from 82.03 million in 2023 to 131.90 million in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 60.8% [20]. - The report highlights the importance of optimizing visa-free policies and enhancing cultural outreach as key drivers for the growth of inbound tourism [7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Potential - The Chinese inbound tourism market has a low base and significant growth potential, with historical growth lagging behind domestic and outbound tourism [19][21]. - Key source countries for inbound tourism include South Korea, Japan, and Russia for short-haul travel, while the United States is the largest long-haul source [19][50]. 2. Policy Impact - The report emphasizes the positive impact of visa-free policies, particularly in Hainan, which has significantly boosted inbound visitor numbers [19][20]. - The continuous release of visa-free policy benefits is expected to inject strong policy-driven momentum into the inbound tourism market [19][20]. 3. Cultural Influence - The integration of cultural exports with tourism is creating a virtuous cycle, enhancing China's global appeal and driving inbound tourism growth [7][19]. - The report cites Turkey as a successful example of how cultural exports can stimulate inbound tourism [7][19]. 4. Company Analysis - Trip.com is actively expanding its inbound tourism market presence and optimizing its supply chain to leverage growth opportunities [2][9]. - Tongcheng Travel is rapidly developing its international business, with significant year-on-year growth in international flight and hotel bookings expected in 2024 [2][9]. - Zhongxin Tourism, with its strong outbound tourism background, is beginning to establish its inbound tourism services, showing potential for future growth [3][9].