责任编辑：史丽君 责任编辑：史丽君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 中信证券发布研报称，首予携程集团-S（09961）"买入"评级，对应目标价660港元。报告表示，近期携 程集团因自身舆论及国际政治波动对出境旅游造成的潜在负面影响，股价波动。该行认为，短期舆论影 响可控，长期而言，集团作为OTA龙头份额大概率不会降低，且对整体业绩影响较小。 该行预计，2026年携程集团境内收入增9%、出境增12%、纯海外增34%，整体收入增速13%，经调整净 利润225.8亿人民币。当前估值约16.5倍，低于历史估值中枢的18倍，建议逢低布局。展望2026年，该行 预计境内酒店价格逐步企稳回升、竞争格局相对稳定的背景下公司境内酒店业务增速有望持续领先行 业，同时Trip.com有望驱动海外业务延续高增长，携程有望持续实现份额提升与利润释放。 中信证券发布研报称，首予携程集团-S（09961）"买入"评级，对应目标价660港元。报告表示，近期携 程集团因自身舆论及国际政治波动对出境旅游造成的潜在负面影响，股价波动。该行认为，短期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The primary issue facing the Chinese economy and enterprises is the need to reduce "involution," which is characterized as ineffective competition leading to a zero-sum or negative-sum game, particularly due to resource bottlenecks [3][15]. Economic Challenges - Many industries in China are experiencing demand growth that lags behind supply growth, resulting in price reductions and increased difficulties for enterprises [3][15]. - The tourism industry exemplifies this trend, where domestic tourism numbers are increasing moderately, but supply growth (e.g., hotels, attractions) is outpacing demand, leading to price declines of 7% to 10% [4][16]. Demand Creation Strategies - To address the issue of involution, it is crucial to create more demand, particularly through increasing consumer demand rather than relying solely on investment [4][16]. - Expanding foreign demand, especially in inbound tourism, is identified as a significant opportunity, with potential for substantial GDP contributions if inbound tourism can reach 1% to 2% of the economy [5][18]. Consumer Spending Enhancement - The current economic environment is characterized by deflation, with many consumers hesitant to spend due to economic uncertainty. A proposed solution is to distribute cash directly to consumers through fiscal deficits, potentially amounting to 2% to 3% of GDP [6][19]. - This approach is deemed appropriate given China's production capacity and current deflationary pressures, which would mitigate inflation risks typically associated with cash distribution [7][19]. Addressing Declining Birth Rates - The declining birth rate poses a significant risk to the economy, with births dropping from over 18 million in 2016 to approximately 8 million in the current year, a reduction of over 50% [8][20]. - To counteract this trend, financial support should be directed towards young people, who are most in need of assistance for family planning and child-rearing [8][20]. Work-Life Balance and Education Reform - There is a call for reducing overall working hours and increasing vacation time to improve work-life balance, which could encourage family growth [10][21]. - Education reform is essential to reduce the current "involution" in the education system, which discourages young people from having children due to the pressures of excessive competition and examination [11][22]. Summary of Recommendations - The proposed measures to reduce involution in Chinese society include: increasing foreign tourism, distributing cash to consumers, encouraging higher birth rates, providing more vacation time, and reducing examination pressures [12][23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth potential of China's inbound tourism market, which has lagged behind domestic and outbound tourism in terms of growth rate and GDP contribution [4] - The inbound tourism market is primarily driven by two factors: the release of visa-free policies and the promotion of Chinese culture abroad, leading to a positive cycle of cultural and tourism integration [5] - The inbound tourism market in China has seen rapid growth since 2023, indicating the onset of a golden development period for inbound tourism [5] Group 2 - Trip.com, as a leading OTA, is benefiting from the inbound tourism boom, with a focus on the Asia-Pacific region and a strategy of gradual international growth [6] - Tongcheng Travel is expanding into international markets, with significant year-on-year growth in international flight and hotel bookings expected in 2024 [7] - Zhongxin Tourism, which started with outbound tourism, is gradually developing its inbound tourism business, having established a subsidiary for inbound services in March 2024 [8]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the sentiment in the market has cooled down, with a slight decrease in the proportion of rising stocks in the CSI 300 index, which remains above 50%, suggesting a cautious outlook for the near term [2] - The new stock fundraising scale has decreased month-on-month, with November 2025 seeing 11 new stocks listed and a total fundraising amount of 10.188 billion yuan, although it still maintains a level above 10 billion yuan [3] - The report predicts negative year-on-year profit growth for industries such as coal, cement, float glass, and ordinary steel, while fuel refining profits are expected to see slight positive growth [4] Group 2 - The inbound tourism market in China is entering a high-quality development phase, driven by visa-free policies and cultural outreach, with significant growth potential for leading OTA companies like Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel [5] - Ctrip is positioned as a leading OTA benefiting from the inbound tourism boom, while Tongcheng Travel is rapidly expanding its international business [5] - The report recommends a "buy" rating for Ctrip Group and maintains a "buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel, while also giving an "accumulate" rating for Zhongxin Tourism [5] Group 3 - The report highlights that China's copper smelting plants are expected to reduce production by over 10% in 2026, which is anticipated to support a bullish outlook for copper prices [6] - The copper market is facing a shortage that is affecting electrolytic copper, with imbalances in inventory potentially leading to increased tightness outside the US [6] - Recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jinchuan Group, with a focus on companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Jiangxi Copper [6] Group 4 - The report tracks high-frequency data on the real estate market, indicating a cumulative transaction of 706,000 new homes across 20 cities, reflecting a 13% decrease year-on-year [7] - In major cities, Beijing saw a 19% decline in new home transactions, while Shanghai and Shenzhen experienced decreases of 5% and 31%, respectively [7] - Conversely, the second-hand housing market showed a slight increase of 3.1% in transactions across 10 cities, with notable increases in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [7]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Trip.com and Tongcheng Travel, and an "Accumulate" rating for Zhongxin Tourism [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese inbound tourism market is entering a golden development period, driven by visa-free policies and cultural exports, with significant growth potential [1][20]. - The inbound tourism market has shown rapid growth since 2023, with inbound visitor numbers expected to increase from 82.03 million in 2023 to 131.90 million in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 60.8% [20]. - The report highlights the importance of optimizing visa-free policies and enhancing cultural outreach as key drivers for the growth of inbound tourism [7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Potential - The Chinese inbound tourism market has a low base and significant growth potential, with historical growth lagging behind domestic and outbound tourism [19][21]. - Key source countries for inbound tourism include South Korea, Japan, and Russia for short-haul travel, while the United States is the largest long-haul source [19][50]. 2. Policy Impact - The report emphasizes the positive impact of visa-free policies, particularly in Hainan, which has significantly boosted inbound visitor numbers [19][20]. - The continuous release of visa-free policy benefits is expected to inject strong policy-driven momentum into the inbound tourism market [19][20]. 3. Cultural Influence - The integration of cultural exports with tourism is creating a virtuous cycle, enhancing China's global appeal and driving inbound tourism growth [7][19]. - The report cites Turkey as a successful example of how cultural exports can stimulate inbound tourism [7][19]. 4. Company Analysis - Trip.com is actively expanding its inbound tourism market presence and optimizing its supply chain to leverage growth opportunities [2][9]. - Tongcheng Travel is rapidly developing its international business, with significant year-on-year growth in international flight and hotel bookings expected in 2024 [2][9]. - Zhongxin Tourism, with its strong outbound tourism background, is beginning to establish its inbound tourism services, showing potential for future growth [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [3][12]. Core Insights - Domestic growth is stable while overseas growth continues to be high, with the company expanding its user share and influence. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 31.86 billion, RMB 20.76 billion, and RMB 23.16 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][12]. - A valuation of 23x PE for 2026 is set, leading to a target market capitalization of RMB 476.4 billion, equivalent to HKD 523.3 billion, with a target price of HKD 733 [3][12]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 18.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 6.35 billion, up 11.73%, and adjusted operating profit was RMB 6.13 billion, reflecting a 12.2% increase. Net profit attributable to shareholders surged to RMB 19.89 billion, a 194.01% increase, largely due to partial investment profit sales [3][13]. - The company’s revenue growth in transportation accelerated due to peak season and overseas demand, while hotel growth remained in double digits but showed signs of sequential slowdown. Group tours have seen a decline in growth since Q1 2025, attributed to a shift towards independent travel and regional risks [3][13]. Performance Metrics - The adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to be 30.5% in 2025, with a slight decline expected in subsequent years. The company has maintained stable profit margins despite increased competition in overseas markets [3][12][13]. - The report highlights that the company has increased its investment in Trip, leading to a rise in marketing expenses, which has contributed to rapid growth in overseas markets and an increase in user share [3][13].

Summary of Ctrip Group's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ctrip Group (携程集团) - **Date**: November 21, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Ctrip's domestic and outbound tourism is entering a low season, while overseas tourism is entering a peak season, with Trip.com’s revenue share expected to rise from 13% in Q3 to 17-18% in Q4, indicating a seasonal revenue structure change [2][5] - The company has not been significantly impacted by new competitors due to rational competition post-pandemic, with brands focusing on core positioning and customer loyalty rather than price wars [2][6] - The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels has shown signs of recovery, with a 15% increase in domestic hotel bookings in Q3 and a return to 2019 levels for outbound travel bookings [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, domestic market performance was strong, particularly in leisure travel, with a 10% growth rate maintained in the first two months of Q4 [3] - Trip.com is expected to maintain over 50% growth in Q4, despite a high base from the previous year, with hotel business growth exceeding 40% of total revenue [3][4] AI Integration and Technology - Ctrip is implementing an "AI everywhere" strategy, integrating AI into its app for customer service, sales optimization, and user experience enhancement [2][7] - The company is developing an AI itinerary planning assistant that generates travel recommendations based on user inputs, aiming to improve operational efficiency and customer engagement [8][10] Revenue Structure and Commission Rates - Ctrip has no immediate plans to adjust commission rates for domestic or outbound businesses, focusing instead on market share growth [4][11] - Future commission rate increases may occur for Trip.com, currently at 8-9%, as the company prioritizes market share over immediate profitability [11] Market Recovery and Competition - The APAC market is recovering rapidly, with capacity restored to 90%, and Ctrip expects to capture more market share as some overseas OTAs have not returned to the Chinese market [13][15] - The company is focusing on high-value markets like Hong Kong and Singapore, where it has achieved profitability and is shifting marketing strategies from brand advertising to performance-based advertising [17][18] Challenges and Strategic Responses - Recent events in Japan have led to increased order cancellations, but Ctrip is adapting by promoting alternative destinations and monitoring travel trends [12] - The company is aware of the unique competitive landscape in Japan and Korea, where local OTAs dominate, and is adjusting its strategies accordingly [22][23] Future Outlook - Ctrip plans to maintain its marketing budget at current levels, with no immediate expansion expected, while anticipating a stable loss rate in 2026 [26][27] - The company is optimistic about its growth trajectory, particularly in the APAC region, and aims to leverage AI and data analytics to enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency [10][20] Additional Insights - Ctrip's focus on high-end international travel customers through Trip.com aligns with its strategy to enhance user experience and reduce reliance on third-party platforms [24][25] - The company is committed to optimizing its revenue structure by increasing the share of higher-margin segments like hotel bookings [11][19]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Trip.com has shown strong booking growth in Q3, with over 60% year-on-year increase, and over 50% growth in the Asia-Pacific region, while Europe and the Middle East show encouraging momentum [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Trip.com reported better-than-expected revenue performance in Q3, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 1.7%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [1] - The target price for Trip.com’s US stock has been raised from $85 to $86, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The growth momentum is expected to continue into Q4 2025, despite facing a high year-on-year comparison base, driven by increased user engagement and ongoing upgrades in products and services [1] - The upcoming travel peak season is anticipated to reflect these improvements in user engagement and service offerings [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's stock price has experienced a decline of over 6%, currently down 4.17% at HKD 552.5, with a trading volume of HKD 1.316 billion, following travel advisories against visiting Japan [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Ctrip's stock fell sharply after the Chinese government issued warnings to citizens to avoid travel to Japan, leading to a significant number of hotel cancellations [1] - The company's customer service indicated that they are actively managing cancellations and assisting customers with refunds, with some hotels agreeing to free cancellations [1] Group 2: Business Performance - Goldman Sachs reported that Ctrip's outbound travel business is normalizing, with a year-on-year growth of 14-15%, slightly above the company's guidance of 10-20% [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, Ctrip is benefiting from economies of scale in R&D and management expenses, with adjusted profit margins on an upward trajectory [1] - Profitability is expected to improve further with the anticipated earnings recovery of Trip.com [1]

Consumer Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focused on supply-side structural reforms, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes direct stimulation of demand, aiming to significantly boost consumer spending and enhance domestic circulation [2][3] - The goal of the "15th Five-Year Plan" includes increasing the consumer rate and ensuring that domestic demand continues to be the main driver of economic growth, with expectations for retail sales growth to outpace GDP growth [3] - Policies such as government and enterprise subsidies are expected to directly stimulate consumer spending, with a shift from structural optimization to activating consumption [2][3] E-commerce and Retail Innovations - New retail models like live streaming and instant retail are emerging growth areas, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou to create new consumer scenarios [4] - Instant retail is evolving from meeting urgent needs to catering to a broader range of consumer demands, creating a positive feedback loop that drives both supply and demand [4][5] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" calls for expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services, with e-commerce platforms expected to focus on balancing price and quality [3][5] Travel and Tourism - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the quality of tourism services and promote the integration of culture and tourism, with OTA platforms playing a key role in this transformation [6][7] - Domestic tourism is being enriched through cultural elements, while inbound tourism policies are being optimized to lower barriers and enhance the experience for international visitors [7][8] - OTA platforms are responding to national policies by expanding their service offerings and improving the overall travel experience for both domestic and international tourists [6][7] Technology and AI Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating AI innovation and application, with a focus on enhancing efficiency in existing businesses and driving new demand through AI technologies [9][10] - The demand for cloud computing is surging due to the growing need for AI applications, with Chinese cloud providers expected to benefit significantly from this trend [10] - AI applications are anticipated to revolutionize content production and advertising, with platforms leveraging AI to enhance user engagement and operational efficiency [11][12]