Summary of Ctrip Group's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ctrip Group (携程集团) - **Date**: November 21, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Ctrip's domestic and outbound tourism is entering a low season, while overseas tourism is entering a peak season, with Trip.com’s revenue share expected to rise from 13% in Q3 to 17-18% in Q4, indicating a seasonal revenue structure change [2][5] - The company has not been significantly impacted by new competitors due to rational competition post-pandemic, with brands focusing on core positioning and customer loyalty rather than price wars [2][6] - The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels has shown signs of recovery, with a 15% increase in domestic hotel bookings in Q3 and a return to 2019 levels for outbound travel bookings [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, domestic market performance was strong, particularly in leisure travel, with a 10% growth rate maintained in the first two months of Q4 [3] - Trip.com is expected to maintain over 50% growth in Q4, despite a high base from the previous year, with hotel business growth exceeding 40% of total revenue [3][4] AI Integration and Technology - Ctrip is implementing an "AI everywhere" strategy, integrating AI into its app for customer service, sales optimization, and user experience enhancement [2][7] - The company is developing an AI itinerary planning assistant that generates travel recommendations based on user inputs, aiming to improve operational efficiency and customer engagement [8][10] Revenue Structure and Commission Rates - Ctrip has no immediate plans to adjust commission rates for domestic or outbound businesses, focusing instead on market share growth [4][11] - Future commission rate increases may occur for Trip.com, currently at 8-9%, as the company prioritizes market share over immediate profitability [11] Market Recovery and Competition - The APAC market is recovering rapidly, with capacity restored to 90%, and Ctrip expects to capture more market share as some overseas OTAs have not returned to the Chinese market [13][15] - The company is focusing on high-value markets like Hong Kong and Singapore, where it has achieved profitability and is shifting marketing strategies from brand advertising to performance-based advertising [17][18] Challenges and Strategic Responses - Recent events in Japan have led to increased order cancellations, but Ctrip is adapting by promoting alternative destinations and monitoring travel trends [12] - The company is aware of the unique competitive landscape in Japan and Korea, where local OTAs dominate, and is adjusting its strategies accordingly [22][23] Future Outlook - Ctrip plans to maintain its marketing budget at current levels, with no immediate expansion expected, while anticipating a stable loss rate in 2026 [26][27] - The company is optimistic about its growth trajectory, particularly in the APAC region, and aims to leverage AI and data analytics to enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency [10][20] Additional Insights - Ctrip's focus on high-end international travel customers through Trip.com aligns with its strategy to enhance user experience and reduce reliance on third-party platforms [24][25] - The company is committed to optimizing its revenue structure by increasing the share of higher-margin segments like hotel bookings [11][19]

花旗发表报告指，携程公布第三季业绩，Trip.com录得强劲的预订量增长，按年增长超过60%，亚太地 区按年增长超过50%，欧洲和中东地区势头令人鼓舞。该行预计，尽管面临较高的按年比较基数，增长 势头在2025年第四季仍将大致延续，因用户参与度的提升，以及公司持续推进的产品和服务升级，这一 点将在即将到来的旅游旺季中得到体现。 基于第三季度收入表现好于预期，该行上调2025至27年盈利预测分别1.7%、0.3%及0.2%，携程美股目 标价相应由85美元上调至86美元，维持"买入"评级，反映中国国内业务坚韧以及Trip.com国际业务的动 能强劲。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's stock price has experienced a decline of over 6%, currently down 4.17% at HKD 552.5, with a trading volume of HKD 1.316 billion, following travel advisories against visiting Japan [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Ctrip's stock fell sharply after the Chinese government issued warnings to citizens to avoid travel to Japan, leading to a significant number of hotel cancellations [1] - The company's customer service indicated that they are actively managing cancellations and assisting customers with refunds, with some hotels agreeing to free cancellations [1] Group 2: Business Performance - Goldman Sachs reported that Ctrip's outbound travel business is normalizing, with a year-on-year growth of 14-15%, slightly above the company's guidance of 10-20% [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, Ctrip is benefiting from economies of scale in R&D and management expenses, with adjusted profit margins on an upward trajectory [1] - Profitability is expected to improve further with the anticipated earnings recovery of Trip.com [1]

Consumer Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focused on supply-side structural reforms, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes direct stimulation of demand, aiming to significantly boost consumer spending and enhance domestic circulation [2][3] - The goal of the "15th Five-Year Plan" includes increasing the consumer rate and ensuring that domestic demand continues to be the main driver of economic growth, with expectations for retail sales growth to outpace GDP growth [3] - Policies such as government and enterprise subsidies are expected to directly stimulate consumer spending, with a shift from structural optimization to activating consumption [2][3] E-commerce and Retail Innovations - New retail models like live streaming and instant retail are emerging growth areas, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou to create new consumer scenarios [4] - Instant retail is evolving from meeting urgent needs to catering to a broader range of consumer demands, creating a positive feedback loop that drives both supply and demand [4][5] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" calls for expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services, with e-commerce platforms expected to focus on balancing price and quality [3][5] Travel and Tourism - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the quality of tourism services and promote the integration of culture and tourism, with OTA platforms playing a key role in this transformation [6][7] - Domestic tourism is being enriched through cultural elements, while inbound tourism policies are being optimized to lower barriers and enhance the experience for international visitors [7][8] - OTA platforms are responding to national policies by expanding their service offerings and improving the overall travel experience for both domestic and international tourists [6][7] Technology and AI Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating AI innovation and application, with a focus on enhancing efficiency in existing businesses and driving new demand through AI technologies [9][10] - The demand for cloud computing is surging due to the growing need for AI applications, with Chinese cloud providers expected to benefit significantly from this trend [10] - AI applications are anticipated to revolutionize content production and advertising, with platforms leveraging AI to enhance user engagement and operational efficiency [11][12]

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) concluded on November 10, with Trip.com Group showcasing its innovative achievements and service ecosystem in the inbound tourism sector as the "official travel service partner" [2][3] - Trip.com received positive feedback from international attendees, highlighting its user-friendly interface and seamless payment process, which alleviated initial concerns about booking travel in China [2] - The platform's tailored services, such as "free half-day tours" and "AI itinerary planning," significantly enhance the travel experience for first-time visitors [2][3] Company Developments - Trip.com is leveraging AI technology and localized experiences to create a "warm bridge" connecting China with the world, facilitating easier and more confident exploration for international guests [4] - CEO Sun Jie announced that by 2025, the recovery rate of inbound tourism in China is expected to reach 123%, surpassing global and Asia-Pacific averages [4] - The company is focusing on content marketing to enhance inbound tourism experiences, moving away from traditional price competition [4] Service Innovations - Trip.com has improved its non-Chinese language service offerings by 72%, with real-time translation of hotel information into 26 languages, ensuring that small and medium-sized hotels can accommodate international guests without issues [4] - The AI itinerary assistant "Trip.Planner" integrates personalized data and real-time information to predict user interests, enabling one-click planning and booking [5] - The integrated platform TripGenie collaborates with partners to enhance service and marketing efficiency [5]

Group 1 - Ctrip (TCOM.US) saw an initial increase of over 3%, reaching a high of $74.68 [1] - Ctrip Group has established a five-year strategic partnership with Cityline, marking its first collaboration with a major ticketing supplier in Hong Kong and Macau [1] - Users of Ctrip's Trip.com and Ctrip Travel will be able to easily collect event tickets from Cityline's self-service machine network in Hong Kong, Macau, and mainland China, enhancing convenience and providing a smoother ticketing experience for large events [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip (TCOM.US) has entered a five-year strategic partnership with Cityline, marking its first collaboration with a major ticketing supplier in Hong Kong and Macau, which is expected to enhance user experience in ticket purchasing and collection [1] Group 1 - Ctrip's stock rose approximately 1.5% to $73.55 in pre-market trading [1] - The partnership will allow users of Trip.com and Ctrip to easily collect event tickets at Cityline's self-service kiosks in Hong Kong, Macau, and mainland China [1] - The integration of online ticket purchasing with offline collection is anticipated to improve convenience for users attending large events [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Ctrip has implemented a new policy allowing research and development employees to work from home without needing direct supervisor approval, aiming to enhance work-life balance and foster a culture of trust and self-drive [1][2] - Since the introduction of the hybrid work policy in 2022, approximately 70% of Ctrip's employees have participated, resulting in around 640,000 instances of remote work [1] - Ctrip's chairman, Liang Jianzhang, advocates for the hybrid work model as a win-win for employees, companies, and society, highlighting benefits such as increased employee satisfaction, reduced traffic congestion, and improved family harmony [2] Group 2 - Ctrip is a leading one-stop travel platform globally, offering a comprehensive range of travel products and services through its various platforms, including Trip.com and Qunar [2] - The company was listed on the NASDAQ in 2003 and later on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2021, indicating its significant growth and international presence [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected financial results for Q2 2025, driven by strong accommodation revenue and effective cost control measures [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue increased by 16% to 14.9 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 1% due to higher-than-expected accommodation revenue [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached 5 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 34%, surpassing market expectations by 15% due to controlled marketing expenses and additional government subsidies [1]. - The company completed its previously announced $400 million shareholder return plan ahead of schedule and approved a new buyback plan of up to $5 billion in August 2025 [1]. Industry Trends - Domestic hotel bookings grew faster than the industry average, with accommodation revenue of 6.2 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a 21% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations by 3% [1]. - The overall hotel industry showed a decline in occupancy rates (OCC) by 4% and average daily rates (ADR) by 1% during the summer period, indicating a challenging environment [1]. - The company expects domestic hotel night volume to maintain low double-digit year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, with ADR declines narrowing to low single digits [1]. International Travel - Outbound travel bookings recovered to over 120% of 2019 levels in Q2 2025, outperforming the industry average of 84% recovery in flight volumes [2]. - The company anticipates a slight slowdown in year-on-year growth for outbound revenue due to high base effects from last year's summer travel [2]. - Trip.com maintained rapid growth with international OTA bookings increasing by over 60% in Q2, and the company's share of group revenue rising to 14% [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its 2025 non-GAAP net profit forecast upward by 8% to 17.7 billion yuan, while maintaining the 2026 forecast at 18.9 billion yuan [2]. - The company continues to rate outperforming the industry and has switched to a 2026 PE valuation method, maintaining target prices of $75.9 for US stocks and HK$588.5 for Hong Kong stocks, indicating potential upside of 16% and 15% respectively [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected Q2 performance, with hotel business growth surpassing expectations and market share continuing to increase. The competitive environment in mainland China is favorable for the company, and the trend of improving marketing investment efficiency is expected to continue. Although competition in some overseas markets has intensified, the impact on overall company profits is manageable. The target price has been raised based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio, maintaining a buy rating [1]. Group 1 - Q2 revenue reached 14.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, slightly above market expectations [2]. - The growth breakdown includes accommodation up 21%, transportation up 11%, vacation up 5%, and business travel up 9% [2]. - The number of hotel room nights in mainland China increased by over 15% year-on-year, exceeding the expected growth of over 10% [2]. Group 2 - Adjusted net profit was 5 billion RMB, remaining stable year-on-year and exceeding market expectations by 19% [2]. - The net profit margin was 34%, a decline of approximately 5 percentage points due to ongoing investments in overseas markets [2]. - For Q3, revenue is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year, with hotel revenue increasing by 18%, driven primarily by the growth in room nights [2].