来源：市场资讯 （来源：国金证券研究所） 摘要 公司简介 携程集团（代码: 9961.HK/TCOM）创立于1999年，是中国领先的一站式旅行服务平台，集团目前通 过"携程"和"去哪儿"在中国市场占据龙头地位；旗下Trip.com侧重海外市场、"Skyscanner-天巡"为全球 机票比价直连平台；目前公司业务覆盖全球200+个国家，已成为全球市值第三大的在线旅游企业。 1） 国内旅游业务是基本盘，市占率领先&业务稳固。在当下酒店供给增加的背景下，OTA渠道价值进 一步凸显。携程前端具备流量优势，据QuestMobile数据，2025年5月携程&去哪儿APP自有流量位列行 业Top2。携程后端供应链基础扎实，积累覆盖国内600多个城市的75万+酒店资源。 2） 出境业务：具备"重服务+供应链资源丰富"的优势。携程2023年至今出境游恢复率持续快于行业， 且据Fastdata数据2024年7月携程出境游人次市占率达48.3%，我们认为其出境游优势主要来源于：①客 服沟通、界面操作等方面更符合国人操作习惯，重服务模式有效解决国人出境游痛点，携程拥有世界最 大的旅游业呼叫中心提供7*24小时中文服务；②出境资源布局 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com, the international online travel platform under Ctrip, has made significant strides in expanding its overseas business, achieving a revenue share of 14% in 2024, with expectations to contribute about 20% of the group's revenue in the next three to five years [1][2]. Group 1: Business Expansion Strategies - Ctrip's overseas business expansion began in 2016 with the acquisition of Skyscanner for approximately 136 billion RMB, which enhanced user acquisition through its high traffic and user engagement [4]. - The company further expanded its international presence by acquiring Trip.com in the U.S. and investing in Travix and MakeMyTrip, thereby increasing its market share in Europe and South Asia [4]. - Ctrip established a global content agreement with TripAdvisor in 2019, allowing Trip.com to leverage TripAdvisor's content as a significant traffic source [4]. Group 2: User Engagement and Marketing - Ctrip effectively utilizes Skyscanner's flight search capabilities, showcasing competitive flight and hotel prices to guide users towards higher-margin products [6]. - In 2024, Ctrip's international flight bookings increased by over 70%, with 15%-20% of flight users also booking hotels or other travel products [6]. - The implementation of visa-free entry policies has significantly boosted inbound tourism, with a 240% increase in hotel bookings from major visa-free countries in the first quarter of 2025 [6]. Group 3: Innovative Marketing Approaches - Ctrip has adopted live streaming as a marketing strategy since 2020, launching a new Asian live streaming center in Bangkok, which has attracted over 10 million viewers in 2024 [7]. - Traditional marketing efforts include airport promotions and tailored advertising campaigns that resonate with local cultures, such as the campaign in Hong Kong targeting young workers [9]. Group 4: Challenges and Market Dynamics - Despite its achievements, Ctrip faces intense competition from established platforms like Expedia, Booking, and Airbnb, necessitating unique value propositions to retain customers [10]. - The company's low commission rate strategy, averaging 3.9%, raises concerns about its long-term sustainability compared to competitors with rates three times higher [10]. - Ctrip's marketing expenses reached 11.9 billion RMB in 2024, a nearly 30% increase year-on-year, which may impact profitability in the short term [10]. Group 5: User Demographics and Market Penetration - Currently, Ctrip's overseas user base is predominantly composed of overseas Chinese, with foreign users representing a smaller proportion [11]. - The company has validated its strategies in the Asia-Pacific region but faces challenges in retaining local users in more mature markets like Europe and North America [11].

Group 1 - Ctrip Group has opened over 1,100 overseas positions across 75 cities in 23 countries, including London and Tokyo, focusing on hotel and vacation business lines [1] - The company has established a tourism innovation fund of 1 billion yuan and formed strategic partnerships with hotel groups in Thailand and Malaysia [1] - Ctrip's international platform, Trip.com, is expected to see a year-on-year increase of over 60% in booking volume by Q1 2025, with a goal to double the overseas revenue share in the next 3-5 years [1] Group 2 - Industry experts indicate that emerging platforms will struggle to challenge the supply chain and service advantages of leading OTAs like Ctrip in the short term [1] - The industry is developing a competitive landscape characterized by "local deep cultivation" and "global expansion" strategies [1]

Summary of Ctrip Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ctrip (Trip.com) - **Industry**: Online Travel Agency (OTA) Key Points and Arguments Domestic Hotel Booking Trends - In Q2, domestic hotel bookings maintained double-digit growth despite a year-over-year price decline, with the decline rate narrowing [2][3] - Hotel supply increased by 5%-10% year-over-year, indicating a clear trend of normalized demand growth [2][3] - Traffic maintained a steady double-digit growth, with expectations for continued normalized growth in domestic tourism [2][4] International Travel Recovery - Outbound travel capacity has recovered to approximately 80%-85%, with free travel, hotel, and flight recovery rates at 120%-125% [2][5] - Ctrip's international version saw a growth rate of about 60% in Q1, with a target of over 50% growth for the year [2][5] - Overall revenue growth is expected to maintain around 15% for the year [2][5] Revenue Composition and Future Goals - Domestic business accounts for 60%-65% of total revenue, outbound business approximately 15%, and pure overseas business 20% [2][6] - Trip.com contributed about 13% to total revenue, exceeding pre-pandemic levels [2][6] - The goal is for international business to contribute over 50% of total revenue in the next 3-5 years, with Trip.com aiming for around 20% [2][7] Hotel Revenue Structure - Trip.com has shifted from primarily ticket sales to hotel revenue, which now exceeds 40% and is expected to increase further [2][8] - A higher hotel revenue proportion is anticipated to positively impact Ctrip's profit structure [2][8] Seasonal Trends in Travel - The peak travel season for overseas and domestic tourism differs significantly, with Q4 being the peak for Trip.com due to major holidays [2][9][10] - Q3 is also busy due to summer vacations, while Q1 and Q2 are more fragmented with various regional holidays [2][9][10] International Route Recovery - Some routes in the Asia-Pacific region, such as Thailand, have not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with recovery rates around 60%-70% [2][11] - Europe has largely recovered or surpassed 2019 levels, while some regions like Spain and Italy are still lagging [2][11] Foreign Tourist Preferences - Foreign tourists from the Asia-Pacific region prefer using Trip.com, while European and American tourists tend to use Booking.com [2][13] - Trip.com is the only platform allowing foreign tourists to book high-speed train tickets in China, providing a competitive advantage [2][15] Future Growth Expectations - Ctrip anticipates an increase in inbound tourism's contribution but aims to avoid over-reliance on the Chinese market [2][17] - The company plans to enhance brand awareness in the Asia-Pacific region to attract more foreign tourists [2][17] Financial Performance and Projections - Ctrip's international segment is expected to incur higher losses than last year, but this is within anticipated limits [2][21] - The budget and revenue expectations for 2025 align with initial forecasts, with a stable tax rate around 15% [2][22][23] Market Position and Competition - Trip.com has maintained profitability with an operating margin of 20-25% [2][26] - The company faces competition from traditional channels and aims to leverage its unique positioning and local language services to capture market share [2][27] Commission Rates and Monetization - Trip.com’s commission rates in overseas markets are lower than competitors, around 8%, to enhance competitiveness [2][28] - The company plans to gradually increase commission rates as the market expands while maintaining lower rates than competitors [2][28] Strategic Differences with Competitors - Trip.com has replicated its domestic competitive advantages in overseas markets, focusing on direct channels and strong supplier relationships [2][29][30] Additional Important Insights - The company emphasizes service quality and customer loyalty over price competition, which aligns with its long-term strategy [2][20] - The overall competitive landscape in the domestic OTA market remains stable, with a focus on enhancing customer experience rather than aggressive pricing strategies [2][20]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group Limited is notifying holders of its 1.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2027 about their right to require the company to repurchase these notes for cash on July 1, 2025, under specific terms outlined in the Indentures [1][2][3] Group 1: Repurchase Right Details - Holders can require the company to repurchase all or a portion of their Exchangeable Notes, with a minimum amount of US$200,000 or integral multiples of US$1,000 [2][3] - The repurchase price will be 100% of the principal amount plus any accrued and unpaid interest up to July 1, 2025 [2] - The total outstanding amount of Exchangeable Notes as of May 27, 2025, is US$500,000,000, which means the total cash purchase price could reach US$500,000,000 if all notes are surrendered [2] Group 2: Timeline and Procedures - The opportunity to exercise the 2025 Repurchase Right starts on May 28, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. and ends on June 27, 2025, at 5:00 p.m. [3] - Holders must follow specific transmittal procedures outlined in the 2025 Repurchase Right Notice to exercise their rights [3] - Holders can withdraw previously tendered Exchangeable Notes until June 27, 2025 [3] Group 3: Company Overview - Trip.com Group Limited is a leading global one-stop travel platform, offering a comprehensive suite of travel products and services [7] - The company operates under various brands, including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner, and aims to provide cost-effective travel solutions [7] - Founded in 1999 and listed on Nasdaq in 2003 and HKEX in 2021, the company continues to expand its reach among travelers worldwide [7]

Group 1 - The first quarter revenue met expectations, with profits exceeding market expectations by 9%. The company anticipates a 14% revenue increase in the second quarter, with adjusted operating profit remaining flat year-on-year [1] - The first quarter performance for 2025 showed revenue of 13.8 billion RMB, a 16% year-on-year increase, aligning with market expectations. Key segments included accommodation (+23%), transportation (+8%), vacation (+7%), and business travel (+12%) [1] - The number of hotel nights in mainland China increased by over 15% year-on-year, with average daily rates (ADR) showing a slight decline, which is better than the industry average [1] Group 2 - Trip.com reported a nearly 60% year-on-year revenue increase, accounting for approximately 13% of total revenue. Adjusted net profit rose 3% to 4.2 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 10% and 9% due to lower-than-expected marketing expenses [2] - The company expects a 14% revenue increase in the second quarter, with hotel and transportation segments projected to grow by 17% and 9%, respectively. Hotel night volumes in mainland China and outbound markets are expected to increase by 10-15% and 15-20% [2] - The competitive landscape in the industry is expected to alleviate some monetization pressure, although profit margins are projected to decline due to ongoing investments in overseas branding [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit exceeding market expectations, driven by controlled marketing expenses and favorable foreign exchange gains [1][3]. Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 16% to 13.8 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations; non-GAAP net profit reached 4.2 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 9% [1]. - The company's hotel booking revenue in Q1 2025 was 5.54 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations by 1.4% [1]. Development Trends - Domestic tourism demand remains robust, with hotel prices expected to stabilize. The company anticipates a mid-to-low double-digit year-on-year growth in domestic hotel night stays for Q2 2025, with a narrowing decline in Average Daily Rate (ADR) [1]. - For outbound travel, the company expects a 15-20% year-on-year increase in outbound flight and hotel bookings in Q2 2025, recovering to 120% of 2019 levels, despite challenges in the Thai market [2]. Growth Expectations - Trip.com is projected to achieve high growth, with international OTA bookings increasing over 60% in Q1, and inbound travel bookings nearly doubling [3]. - The company expects to maintain a 50%+ revenue growth rate for Trip.com in the second half of the year, supported by strong demand from inbound tourism policies and brand expansion into new markets [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 3% to 16.4 billion yuan and 18.9 billion yuan, respectively, while maintaining revenue expectations [3]. - The target prices for the company's shares are set at $75.9 for US stocks and HK$588.5 for Hong Kong stocks, reflecting a potential upside of 13% and 14% from current prices [3].