Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ: TCOM) is considered one of the most undervalued stocks on NASDAQ according to Wall Street analysts, despite a recent target price reduction by Benchmark to $72 from $82 while maintaining a Buy recommendation [1][7]. Financial Performance - The Q4 results showed a solid performance with diluted adjusted earnings per share increasing by 14% year-over-year, surpassing consensus estimates [1][2]. - The earnings beat was primarily driven by higher transaction volumes, particularly in the accommodation reservation and packaged tour segments, both of which grew by over 20% [2]. - Q4 net revenue increased by 21% year-over-year, also exceeding analyst expectations [2]. Future Guidance - The company provided in-line guidance for Q1, which was described as "arguably conservative" [3]. - Revenue growth is expected to be 14% in 2026; however, margins are projected to contract due to increased reinvestment needs, which contributed to the target price reduction by Benchmark [3]. Company Overview - Trip.com Group Limited operates as a one-stop travel platform with brands including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner, and is based in Singapore [4].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 3）25Q4度假业务实现营收10.56亿元，同比+21%，表现超指引（同比增近13%），主要受出境游度假推 动。25年度假业务实现营收46.88亿元，同比+8%。 4）25Q4商旅实现营收8.08亿元，同比+15%，表现超指引（同比+4%），主要由于出海中企数量增加，公 司抓住更多的商旅需求。25全年商旅业务实现营收28.29亿元，同比+13%。 5）25Q4其他业务实现营收19.1亿元，同比+54%，表现超指引（同比+34%），得益于公司海外市场影响 力日益增强，与海外供应商合作紧密以推动广告业务增长。25全年其他业务实现营收64.04亿元，同比 +38%。 分地区：1）人口结构变迁与体验经济兴起，为公司国内业务创造 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Trip.com has experienced strong growth in domestic hotel night stays and outbound bookings during the Spring Festival holiday, reflecting a positive growth momentum for both domestic and outbound business in the first quarter [1] Group 1: Business Performance - Domestic hotel night stays and outbound bookings recorded double-digit year-on-year growth, indicating robust demand in the travel sector [1] - Trip.com's booking volume maintained a growth momentum of approximately 60% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The strong performance in inbound tourism to China is expected to benefit Trip.com due to its brand advantage and scale of travel products in the Chinese market [1] - Based on the stronger-than-expected growth momentum in the first quarter and steady demand for travel in China, Citigroup has raised its profit forecasts for the next two years by 2% and 1% respectively [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for Trip.com on the US stock market with a target price of $82, suggesting that the valuation has become more attractive following recent market weakness [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Trip.com has experienced strong growth in domestic hotel night stays and outbound bookings during the Spring Festival holiday, reflecting a robust growth momentum for both domestic and outbound business in the first quarter [1] Group 1: Business Performance - Domestic hotel night volume and outbound bookings recorded double-digit year-on-year growth, indicating a positive trend for Trip.com [1] - The booking volume for Trip.com maintained a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 60%, showcasing strong demand [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Citigroup believes that the inbound tourism performance in China is strong, and Trip.com is likely to benefit from its brand advantage and the scale of its travel products in the Chinese market [1] - Based on the stronger-than-expected growth momentum in the first quarter and robust tourism demand in China, Citigroup has raised its profit forecasts for the next two years by 2% and 1% respectively [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for Trip.com's U.S. stock and keeps the target price at $82, suggesting that the valuation has become more attractive following recent market weakness [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group's shares fell 3% to a 17-month low amid an ongoing government anti-monopoly investigation, despite reporting significant profit increases for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 [2][3]. Financial Performance - Trip's net profit nearly doubled to 4.3 billion yuan (approximately $614 million) in Q4 2025, with revenue increasing by 21% to 15.4 billion yuan (around $2.2 billion) [4]. - The full-year profit also nearly doubled to $4.8 billion [4]. Market Context - The travel market showed strong resilience in 2025, with inbound travel being a key growth driver for economic development and job creation [5]. - Trip.com Group maintains a market capitalization of over $30 billion, making it one of the most valuable travel companies globally, larger than Expedia but smaller than Booking and Airbnb [6]. Corporate Governance Changes - Two co-founders, Min Fan and Qi Ji, resigned from their positions on the board, with Fan also stepping down as president [7]. - The company appointed two new independent directors, May Yihong Wu and Iris Yang Xiao, to enhance board diversity and expertise [8]. Leadership Insights - CEO Jane Sun emphasized the importance of inbound travel for economic growth [5]. - Chairman James Liang expressed optimism about AI adoption and its role in sustainable long-term development [5].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group announced its unaudited financial results for Q4 2025 and the entire year, along with changes in its board of directors [1][4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Ctrip Group reported a net operating revenue of 15.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.3 billion yuan [4] - For the full year 2025, Ctrip Group's net operating revenue reached 62.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17% [4] Board Changes - Fan Min has resigned from his position as a director and president of the company, while Ji Qi has stepped down from his role as a director [1][3] - Wu Yihong and Xiao Yang have been appointed as new independent directors [1] Regulatory Investigation - Ctrip received a notification from the State Administration for Market Regulation in January 2026 regarding an investigation into alleged monopolistic behavior under the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China [3][4] - The company is cooperating fully with the investigation and maintaining active communication with regulatory authorities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM) is identified as a high growth international stock, with a maintained Buy rating but a reduced price target from $85 to $78 ahead of its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings call [1] Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Target - Bank of America Securities analyst Joyce Ju has lowered the price target for Trip.com from $85 to $78 while maintaining a Buy rating [1] - 92% of analysts covering Trip.com maintain a Buy rating, indicating strong overall bullish sentiment on Wall Street [4] - The 12-month median price target from analysts suggests more than 50% upside from the current stock level [4] Group 2: Financial Projections and Growth Expectations - Joyce Ju has reduced the non-GAAP net profit estimates for Trip.com for 2026-2027 by approximately 10% to 12% due to an ongoing Anti-Monopoly investigation [2] - Despite the lowered profit estimates, growth expectations for Trip.com remain robust, projected at 13% to 15% for 2026-2027, driven by strong Chinese travel demand and the company's market leadership [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong travel trends among Hong Kong residents and the increasing popularity of various destinations in the Asia-Pacific region during the Lunar New Year period [1][2] - Short to medium-haul trips remain the preferred choice for Hong Kong travelers, with Japan, Thailand, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia being the most popular destinations [1] - The average travel length for Hong Kong travelers during the Lunar New Year is approximately 7.7 days, with around 40% booking their trips 31 to 60 days in advance, and nearly half booking more than two months ahead [1] Group 2 - East Asian and Southeast Asian destinations, particularly Vietnam, South Korea, and Indonesia, have experienced significant inbound growth during the Lunar New Year, with major cities like Seoul, Ho Chi Minh City, and Bali seeing over 70% year-on-year increases in bookings [2] - Mainland China remains a popular destination for Hong Kong and Asian travelers during the Lunar New Year, with inbound travelers from Europe and Oceania, particularly from the UK and New Zealand, increasing by over 150% [2] - Notable inbound growth has also been observed in Xiamen and Shenzhen, with increases of 60% and 90% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how Huazhu has leveraged high commission rates to enhance its performance, positioning itself as a leading player in the hotel industry despite challenges faced by its franchisees [4][7][36]. Group 1: Commission Structure and Revenue - Huazhu's overall commission rate is estimated to reach 12%, significantly higher than Ctrip's hotel booking commission rate of approximately 8%-10% [4][26]. - In 2025, Huazhu's total revenue is projected to be 800 billion, with franchisees contributing 703 billion, and Huazhu earning 87 billion from franchisees, resulting in a commission rate of 12.38% [25][26]. - Huazhu has managed to collect service fees from Ctrip, amounting to 1.12 billion and 1.46 billion in 2023 and 2024, respectively, effectively recouping nearly half of its commission expenses [11][12]. Group 2: Franchisee Challenges - Many franchisees report difficulties due to a lack of distance protection, leading to multiple franchises opening within close proximity, which has resulted in declining single-store revenue [7][43]. - Franchisees are increasingly dissatisfied, with reports of high turnover among store managers and complaints about operational inefficiencies [41][46]. - The average occupancy rate and daily room price for Huazhu's franchisees have declined, with single-store revenue dropping from 637 million to 630 million [43][44]. Group 3: Membership and User Base - Huazhu has built a robust membership system, with over 300 million members as of Q3 2025, contributing significantly to its order volume [15][16]. - The central reservation system accounted for 65.1% of Huazhu's room nights, indicating a lower reliance on OTA platforms compared to competitors [16][17]. Group 4: Expansion and Market Strategy - Huazhu has aggressively expanded its franchise model, increasing the number of franchise hotels from 5,746 to 10,380 between 2020 and 2024 [30][31]. - The company has focused on upgrading older hotels, with the proportion of outdated stores dropping from 29% to 4%, while newer versions have increased from 34% to 71% [32][35]. - Despite the rapid expansion, the competitive landscape has intensified, leading to franchisee concerns about profitability and market saturation [38][46].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group is under investigation for alleged monopolistic practices, including abuse of market dominance, as announced by the State Administration for Market Regulation on January 14 [2][3]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation is based on prior checks and is conducted under the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China [2][3]. - Ctrip has faced multiple inquiries from local regulatory bodies prior to the investigation, with accusations of practices such as "forcing merchants to choose" and price manipulation [4][5]. - Ctrip's official response indicates cooperation with regulatory authorities and a commitment to maintaining normal business operations [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Performance - Ctrip holds a dominant position in the OTA industry, with a projected market share of 56% in China's OTA market for 2024, significantly ahead of competitors [8]. - The company has experienced substantial revenue growth, with net revenues of 200.39 billion, 445.10 billion, and 532.94 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, and 470.11 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [9]. - The net profit attributable to Ctrip was 14.03 billion, 99.18 billion, and 170.67 billion yuan for the same periods, with a gross margin of 81% in 2025 [9][10]. Group 3: Pricing Practices - Ctrip's "Price Adjustment Assistant" has been criticized for unilaterally modifying hotel room prices, leading to complaints from merchants about forced price reductions [6][7]. - The system is designed to ensure competitive pricing but has been described as a "one-sided coercion" by hotel operators [6]. - Complaints from users about fluctuating hotel prices during peak seasons have also surfaced, indicating potential issues with pricing transparency [8].