Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][11]. Core Insights - The adjusted net profit for 2026 is revised down to 4.038 billion RMB, while the 2027 adjusted net profit is raised to 4.938 billion RMB. A new profit forecast for 2028 is introduced at 5.730 billion RMB. The target market capitalization is set at 48.4 billion RMB, translating to a target price of 23.34 HKD per share [11][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 17,341 million RMB in 2024 to 26,634 million RMB in 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.86% [4]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 2,785 million RMB in 2024 to 5,730 million RMB in 2028, with a peak growth rate of 26.66% in 2025 [4]. - The adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to rise from 4,050 million RMB in 2024 to 8,208 million RMB in 2028, with an adjusted EBITDA margin projected to stabilize around 15.24% by 2028 [4][12]. Performance Overview - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.84 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.22%. The accommodation business grew by 15.44%, while the transportation segment saw a 6.53% increase. Other revenues surged by 52.98% [11]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2025 was reported at 780 million RMB, marking an 18.12% year-on-year increase, while the adjusted EBITDA reached 1.283 billion RMB, up 28.59% year-on-year [11]. Market Position - The company is positioned within the social services industry, specifically in the online travel agency (OTA) sector, which continues to show stable growth despite challenges in the travel agency segment [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][11]. Core Insights - The adjusted performance for Q4 2025 met expectations, with the core OTA business continuing to grow steadily, while the travel agency business faced one-time impairment risks [2][3]. - Revenue for Q4 2025 reached 4.84 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.22%. The adjusted net profit was 780 million RMB, up 18.12% year-on-year [11]. - The report anticipates an increase in international business and domestic peak season marketing investments, leading to an upward revision of the 2027 adjusted net profit forecast to 4.938 billion RMB [11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast (Million RMB)**: - 2024A: 17,341 - 2025A: 19,396 (+11.85%) - 2026E: 21,856 (+12.68%) - 2027E: 24,467 (+11.94%) - 2028E: 26,634 (+8.86%) [4] - **Net Profit Forecast (Million RMB)**: - 2024A: 1,974 - 2025A: 2,371 - 2026E: 3,372 - 2027E: 4,387 - 2028E: 5,239 [4] - **Adjusted Net Profit Forecast (Million RMB)**: - 2024A: 2,785 - 2025A: 3,403 - 2026E: 4,038 - 2027E: 4,938 - 2028E: 5,730 [4] - **Adjusted EBITDA (Million RMB)**: - 2024A: 4,050 - 2025A: 5,138 - 2026E: 5,974 - 2027E: 7,122 - 2028E: 8,208 [4] - **Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)**: - 2025A: 29.65% - 2026E: 26.85% - 2027E: 16.27% - 2028E: 19.23% [4] Market Data - Current stock price: 18.44 HKD - Market capitalization: 43.41 billion HKD - 52-week price range: 18.08 - 25.32 HKD [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Ctrip Group (9961) [6][10] Core Insights - The financial performance aligns with expectations, with stable domestic operations and increased resource allocation towards overseas market expansion [2][10] - The revenue growth for Q4 2025 was 20.84%, with adjusted net profit increasing by 14.68% [10] - The company is focusing on enhancing its competitive advantage while expanding internationally, despite regulatory concerns [10] Financial Summary - Revenue projections (in million RMB): - 2024A: 53,377 - 2025A: 62,510 (+19.78%) - 2026E: 69,866 (+11.77%) - 2027E: 81,993 (+17.36%) - 2028E: 94,864 (+15.70%) [4] - Adjusted net profit projections (in million RMB): - 2024A: 18,041 - 2025A: 31,839 (+38.02%) - 2026E: 18,530 (-41.80%) - 2027E: 20,261 (+9.34%) - 2028E: 22,799 (+12.53%) [4] - Adjusted EBITDA projections (in million RMB): - 2024A: 17,070 - 2025A: 18,888 (+10.65%) - 2026E: 20,180 (+6.84%) - 2027E: 23,928 (+18.58%) - 2028E: 27,684 (+15.70%) [4] Market Performance - The current stock price is HKD 411.40, with a market capitalization of HKD 293,552 million [6][7] - The stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 400.40 to HKD 609.00 [7] Strategic Focus - The company is reallocating resources to enhance its international market presence, with a focus on travel and accommodation bookings [10] - The management is controlling costs while increasing marketing expenditures for overseas expansion, resulting in a sales expense ratio of 28.5%, the highest in two years [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The financial performance of the company meets expectations, with stable domestic operations and increased resource allocation towards overseas market expansion [2] - The company reported a revenue of 154.29 billion RMB in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.84%, and an adjusted net profit of 34.84 billion RMB, up 14.68% [10] - For the full year 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 625.10 billion RMB, a 17.11% increase, and an adjusted net profit of 318.39 billion RMB, reflecting a significant growth of 76.48% [10] - The report indicates that the company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence while maintaining a stable domestic competitive landscape [10] Financial Summary - Projected revenues for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024: 53,377 million RMB - 2025: 62,510 million RMB - 2026: 69,866 million RMB - 2027: 81,993 million RMB - 2028: 94,864 million RMB - The adjusted net profit is expected to be: - 2024: 18,041 million RMB - 2025: 31,839 million RMB - 2026: 18,530 million RMB - 2027: 20,261 million RMB - 2028: 22,799 million RMB [4][12] - The adjusted EBITDA for the years is projected as follows: - 2024: 17,070 million RMB - 2025: 18,888 million RMB - 2026: 20,180 million RMB - 2027: 23,928 million RMB - 2028: 27,684 million RMB [4][12] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the domestic market while enhancing its international market share, driven by a robust growth trend in revenue [10] - The report highlights a strategic shift towards increasing marketing expenditures for overseas expansion, with a sales expense ratio reaching a two-year high of 28.5% [10] - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 78.8%, indicating effective cost management despite increased marketing efforts [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [3][12]. Core Insights - Domestic growth is stable while overseas growth continues to be high, with the company expanding its user share and influence. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 31.86 billion, RMB 20.76 billion, and RMB 23.16 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][12]. - A valuation of 23x PE for 2026 is set, leading to a target market capitalization of RMB 476.4 billion, equivalent to HKD 523.3 billion, with a target price of HKD 733 [3][12]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 18.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 6.35 billion, up 11.73%, and adjusted operating profit was RMB 6.13 billion, reflecting a 12.2% increase. Net profit attributable to shareholders surged to RMB 19.89 billion, a 194.01% increase, largely due to partial investment profit sales [3][13]. - The company’s revenue growth in transportation accelerated due to peak season and overseas demand, while hotel growth remained in double digits but showed signs of sequential slowdown. Group tours have seen a decline in growth since Q1 2025, attributed to a shift towards independent travel and regional risks [3][13]. Performance Metrics - The adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to be 30.5% in 2025, with a slight decline expected in subsequent years. The company has maintained stable profit margins despite increased competition in overseas markets [3][12][13]. - The report highlights that the company has increased its investment in Trip, leading to a rise in marketing expenses, which has contributed to rapid growth in overseas markets and an increase in user share [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][11]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit have shown robust growth, driven primarily by hotel bookings and international business [11]. - The report highlights that the company's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations, benefiting from a stable competitive landscape and improved marketing efficiency [2][11]. - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 183.25 billion, 206.60 billion, and 227.21 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is forecasted to grow from 44,562 in 2023 to 78,490 in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.28% [4]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 13,071 in 2023 to 22,721 in 2027, with a significant growth of 910.12% in 2023 [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to rise from 13,975 in 2023 to 23,342 in 2027, indicating a steady increase in profitability [4]. Performance Highlights - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.864 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.23%, and a net profit of 4.864 billion RMB, up 26.4% [11]. - The breakdown of revenue sources shows hotel bookings growing by 21.2%, transportation tickets by 10.8%, and group tours by 5.3% [11]. - The company has maintained a stable profit margin, with adjusted EBITDA margin projected at 29.6% for 2025 [4][11]. Market Position - The company is positioned to outperform its competitors, with a target market capitalization of 476.4 billion RMB, translating to a target price of 731 HKD per share [11]. - The report notes that the company's market share is increasing, particularly in the hotel sector, despite a relatively stable performance in outbound travel [11].