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晶澳科技(002459):短期经营承压 加速中东产能布局
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:43
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to decreased shipments in the U.S. market and asset impairment losses, while maintaining a positive outlook for future growth driven by international market expansion [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 70.121 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.02% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -4.656 billion yuan, aligning with the upper limit of the performance forecast (-4.5 to -5.2 billion yuan) [1] - In Q4 2024, revenue was 15.773 billion yuan, down 26.89% year-on-year and 7.17% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -4.172 billion yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [1] Market Dynamics - The U.S. market shipments decreased significantly, with the company estimating a shipment volume of approximately 21.9 GW in Q4 2024, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15%, but with overseas market shipments down 6% [1] - The final ruling on anti-dumping duties in the U.S. led to a tax rate of 120.69% for the company's Vietnam factory, increasing by 64.65 percentage points from the preliminary ruling, which may adversely affect its economic viability [1][3] Strategic Moves - The company has a strong liquidity position with cash reserves of 25.089 billion yuan and a current ratio of 1.1, allowing it to manage potential risks effectively [2] - A strategic decision was made to transfer U.S. production capacity to enhance liquidity and mitigate risks associated with the suspension of IRA subsidy approvals by the U.S. government [2] - The company is accelerating its capacity expansion in the Middle East, particularly with a 6 GW battery and 3 GW module project in Oman, to serve international clients [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the decline in U.S. market shipments and falling prices in the domestic market, the company has revised its component shipment and gross margin assumptions downward [4] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.232 billion yuan, 3.477 billion yuan, and 4.853 billion yuan, reflecting declines of 16.4% and 21.1% for 2025-2026 [4] - The company is assigned a target price of 10.72 yuan based on a 16x PE ratio for 2025, maintaining an "overweight" rating [4]