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航运衍生品数据日报-20250527
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 05:43
Group 1: Report Title and General Information - The report is titled "Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report" [4] - It is from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute, written by Lu Zhaoyi, with an investment consulting number of Z0021177 and a qualification number of F03101843, dated May 27, 2025 [5] - The data sources are Clarksons and Wind [5] Group 2: Shipping Freight Index Spot Freight Index - The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1586, with a previous value of 1479 and a rise of 7.21% [5] - The current value of the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1107, with a previous value of 1105 and a rise of 0.23% [5] - For SCFI sub - routes: SCFI - US West is 3275 (up 5.95%), SCFIS - US West is 1720 (up 18.92%), SCFI - US East is 4284 (up 5.28%), SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1317 (up 14.12%), SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1247 (down 1.44%), and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2328 (up 11.82%) [5] EC Futures Price Index - Futures contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 show a general downward trend. For example, EC2506 is at 1841.5 (down 0.51%), and EC2508 is at 2085.0 (down 6.29%) [5] Futures Contract Positions - Positions of EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 have different changes. For example, EC2506 position decreased by 547, and EC2410 position increased by 1089 [5] Futures Contract Month - to - Month Spreads - The month - to - month spreads 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 all decreased. For example, the 10 - 12 spread decreased by 69.7 [5] Group 3: Market News - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days [6] - US President Trump said that the US may unilaterally set new tariff rates for many trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7] - Hamas and Israel held a new round of Gaza cease - fire negotiations in Doha [8] - Brussels may impose a 2 - euro handling fee on billions of small packages mainly imported from China. Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting from June 1st [9] Group 4: EC Market Analysis - The EC market shows a downward trend with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [10] - In the spot market, the average price of May spot is still between 1700 - 1800 $/FEU, with a slight decline compared to early May. Affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiation news and the recovery of US - bound demand, airlines are trying to raise the June freight rate on the European route to 3200 - 3300 $/FEU [11] - In the futures market, after the Sino - US negotiation results exceeded expectations last week, the contracts first rose rapidly and then returned to fundamental analysis. As the June pricing becomes clearer, the market focuses more on the 06 contract, and the spread between the 6 - 8 contracts begins to shrink [11] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Long positions and arbitrage positions can be gradually closed for profit [12]