Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report by the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute, dated February 5, 2026 [2][3] 1. Shipping Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Fluctuations**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1317, 1176, 1867, 1101, 2605, 1418, 1792, and 2424 respectively. The previous values are 1458, 1209, 2084, 1294, 2896, 1595, 1859, and 2756 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes are -9.68%, -2.74%, -10.41%, -14.91%, -10.05%, -11.10%, -3.60%, and -12.05% [4] 2. Geopolitical Situation - **Mixed Signals from US - Iran**: There are mixed signals between the US and Iran. The probability of military strikes predicted by the market has slightly decreased. Iranian senior officials said that efforts to start negotiations with the US are making progress. The Wall Street Journal reported that the possibility of the US launching an air strike on Iran in the near - term is low as the US is still deploying air defense capabilities in the region. The "Lincoln" aircraft carrier has left the Oman Sea and entered the Indian Ocean [5] 3. Spot Market of Container Shipping on European Routes (EC) - **Market Condition**: The market is in a volatile state. The spot price shows a pre - holiday decline, with different adjustments among alliances. For the GEMINI alliance, Maersk's opening price in WK6 dropped to $2000 - 2100 per FEU, and Hapag - Lloyd maintained at $2300 - 2500 per FEU; in NK7, Maersk further lowered to $1995 per FEU, while Hapag - Lloyd remained stable. For the OA alliance, the price in WK6 slightly dropped to around $2500 per FBU, and in WK7, COSCO Shipping in North China ports adjusted to $2200 - 2300 per FBU, and East China ports may follow, with an overall range of $2200 - 2300 per FEU. For the PA alliance, the price fluctuated between $2200 - 2400 per FEU in WK6, and in WK7, affected by ONE's WK8 list price of $2000 per FEU, the average price approached $2000 per FEU, with some special prices as low as $1800 per FEU. MSC also slightly lowered its price following the market trend. Due to the pre - Spring Festival cargo volume vacuum period, the quotes of all alliances showed a downward trend [6] 4. Core Viewpoint - **Market Trend**: The container shipping European line (EC) spot and futures markets rebounded today, mainly due to the unexpectedly narrowed decline of the SCFIS index and the improvement of the commodity market atmosphere. After a significant decline, the market gradually made up for the losses, with strong spot - futures linkage. In the short - term, it is restricted by pre - holiday freight rates, and in the long - term, it focuses on the supply - demand game after the holiday. The short - term repair trend is clear but restricted by post - holiday expectations. On the spot side, there is no clear main line, and pre - holiday freight rates are basically determined, with shipping companies such as Maersk slightly lowering their quotes. After the holiday, the pressure is prominent, and freight rates may fall below $2000 to $1800. The effect of shipping companies' price - increasing and stabilizing measures is expected to be poor. The impact of photovoltaic rush shipments needs to be confirmed by March bookings and is limited [8] 5. Investment Strategy - **Trading Strategy**: The cost - effectiveness of short - selling in the short - term has decreased. It is recommended to focus on going long on contract 06 at low positions and short - selling contract 10 during the off - season when the price rebounds [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's collective forecast probability of a military strike has slightly declined as the US and Iran are sending mixed signals. Iran's senior officials said that efforts to start negotiations with the US are making progress, and the US is unlikely to conduct an air strike on Iran in the near term as it is still deploying air - defense capabilities in the region. The "Lincoln" aircraft carrier has left the Oman Sea and entered the Indian Ocean [5]. - The container shipping market shows an oscillating trend. The container shipping European route EC spot - futures market rebounded, mainly due to the unexpectedly narrowed decline of the SCFIS index and the recovery of the commodity market atmosphere. The futures main contract EC2604 oscillated and rebounded, with a closing increase of 5.22% and a clear short - term repair trend but restricted by post - festival expectations. The spot market lacks a clear main line, and post - festival pressure is prominent, with freight rates possibly falling below $2000 [7]. - The short - term cost - effectiveness of short - selling is reduced. Attention should be paid to going long on contract 06 at low levels and short - selling contract 10 during the off - season when it rebounds [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **Container Shipping Freight Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1317, 1176, 1867, 1101, 2605, 1418, 1792, and 2424 respectively. The previous values are 1458, 1209, 2084, 1294, 2896, 1595, 1859, and 2756 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes are - 9.68%, - 2.74%, - 10.41%, - 14.91%, - 10.05%, - 11.10%, - 3.60%, and - 12.05% [4]. Market Situation and Freight Price - **Market Situation**: The market shows an oscillating trend. The container shipping European route EC spot - futures market rebounded after a significant decline the previous day, with strong spot - futures linkage. The futures main contract EC2604 oscillated and rebounded, closing up 5.22% at 1220.8 points, with a maximum of 1254.0 points and a minimum of 1186.0 points, and a trading volume of 29296 lots. The far - month contracts also rose slightly by 1 - 3% [7]. - **Freight Price**: The freight price shows a pre - festival decline. Different alliances have different adjustments. For example, in the GEMINI alliance, Maersk's opening price in WK6 dropped to $2000 - 2100/FEU and further to $1995/FEU in WK7, while Hapag - Lloyd maintained $2300 - 2500/FEU in WK6 and remained stable in WK7. In the OA alliance, the price in WK6 dropped slightly to around $2500/FBU, and in WK7, COSCO Shipping in North China ports adjusted to $2200 - 2300/FEU, with East China ports likely to follow. In the PA alliance, the price fluctuated between $2200 - 2400/FEU in WK6, and in WK7, affected by ONE's WK8 list price of $2000/FEU, the average price approached $2000/FEU, with some volume - special prices at $1800/FEU. The NSC also adjusted slightly downward following the market rhythm [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping industry shows a mixed trend. The freight index has different changes, and the spot price of shipping has price differentiation. The adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic products will lead to a short - term rush of shipments on the European line and a subsequent decline in export volume, which will affect shipping demand and freight rates. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [4][6][7] 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index Section - The present values of Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1647, 1195, 2218, 1323, 3128, 1719 respectively, with changes of - 0.54%, 4.21%, 1.37%, 5.84%, 3.13%, 1.72% compared to the previous values. The present values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1956 and 3232, with changes of 8.97% and 2.83% compared to the previous values [4] Market News Section - The US Supreme Court has set Friday as the "judgment day" to rule on President Donald Trump's global tariff policy. Maersk will gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, and the Maersk Denver successfully passed the Bab el - Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea on January 11 - 12 [5] Spot Price Section - For the GEMINI, Maersk's quotes in the fourth week of January are differentiated. The Shanghai - Rotterdam quote is $2700/FEU (up $100 month - on - month), while quotes from Ningbo - Rotterdam and Shanghai - Gdansk dropped to $2400/FEU. Hapag - Lloyd's quote center fell to $2300 - 2700/FEU. For the OA, the quotes in the first half of January loosened, and EMC's quote from January 16 - 22 was $2800 - 2950/FEU. For the PA, YML's quote from January 16 - 22 was $2600/FEU. MSC's quote in the second half of January was $2840/FEU, the same as in the first half [6] Photovoltaic Export Tax - Rebate Policy Section - China has made major adjustments to the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic products. Currently, China exports 35,000 - 40,000 TEUs of photovoltaic modules to Europe per month, accounting for about 5% of the total European - bound exports. It is estimated that before April 1, the additional cargo volume on the European line due to the rush of shipments is about 30,000 TBU, consuming the capacity of 2 ships of 15,000 TEU. After April, the monthly European - bound shipping volume is expected to decrease by 3000 - 4000 TEU, accounting for about 0.4%. The rush of shipments may temporarily ease the decline in post - holiday freight rates, but it is difficult to benefit most shipping companies. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [2] - Research Institute: Guomao Futures Research Institute, Energy and Chemical Research Center [3] - Analyst: Lu Dingyi [3] - Data Sources: Clarksons, Wind [3] - Date: January 5, 2026 [3] Group 2: Freight Index - **Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI)**: Present value is 1656, previous value was 1553, with a rise of 6.66% [4] - **China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI)**: Present value is 1147, previous value was 1125, with a rise of 1.95% [4] - **SCFI - US West Coast**: Present value is 2188, previous value was 1992, with a rise of 9.84% [4] - **SCFIS - US West Coast**: Present value is 962, previous value was 924, with a rise of 4.11% [4] - **SCFI - US East Coast**: Present value is 3033, previous value was 2846, with a rise of 6.57% [4] - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: Present value is 1690, previous value was 1533, with a rise of 10.24% [4] - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: Present value is 1589, previous value was 1510, with a rise of 5.23% [4] - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: Present value is 3143, previous value was 2833, with a rise of 10.94% [4] Group 3: Market Review - Current European line freight rates are in high - level oscillations. The second - half - month quotes of each alliance are generally higher than those of the first - half - month. The OA alliance has the highest overall freight rate level, and the separate quotes of MSC have a significant increase [5] - **GEMINI Alliance**: In wk1 (12/29 - 1/4), 20GP is 1585, 40GP is 2550; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), the prices are the same as wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), 20GP is 1635, 40GP is 2650, up 50 and 100 respectively compared to wk1 [5] - **OA Alliance**: In wk1 (12/20 - 1/4), 20GP is 1535, 40GP is 2631; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), 20GP is 1824, 40GP is 3068, a significant increase compared to wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), the prices are the same as wk2 [5] - **PA Alliance**: In wk1 (12/29 - 1/4), 20GP is 1603, 40GP is 2806; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), 20GP is 1645, 40GP is 2600; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), the prices are the same as wk2 [6] - **MSC**: In wk1 (12/20 - 1/4), 20GP is 1700, 40GP is 2840; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), the prices are the same as wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), 20GP is 1880, 40GP is 3140, up 180 and 300 respectively compared to wk1 [6] Group 4: Core View - The European line container shipping shows a trend of "simultaneous strengthening of futures and spot". Freight rates have rebounded for multiple weeks, with spot and futures prices rising steadily. Shipping companies have a strong willingness to control cabins and support prices [6] - On the demand side, benefiting from the Spring Festival stocking and restocking demand, the cabin loading rate has improved. On the supply side, empty sailings have decreased, and effective capacity has tightened. The Red Sea situation has marginally eased, and some airlines are tentatively resuming flights, but overall they remain cautious [6] - The freight rate may peak in mid - January. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the progress of flight resumptions, and the market faces adjustment pressure [6] Group 5: Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The European container shipping market shows a "synchronous strengthening of spot and futures" trend. Freight rates have rebounded for multiple weeks, with both spot and futures prices rising steadily. Shipping companies are strongly willing to control capacity and support prices. The demand side benefits from pre - Spring Festival stocking and restocking needs, improving the cabin loading rate; the supply side sees a reduction in blank sailings and a tightening of effective capacity. The Red Sea situation has marginally eased, with some airlines tentatively resuming flights, but overall they remain cautious. Freight rates may peak in early January, and the market faces adjustment pressure depending on demand sustainability and flight resumption progress. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1656, up 6.66% from the previous value of 1553. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1147, up 1.95% from 1125. SCFI - US West is 2188, up 9.84%, SCFIS - US West is 962, up 4.11%, SCFI - US East is 3033, up 6.57%, and SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1690, up 10.24%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1589, up 5.23%, and SCFI - Mediterranean is 3143, up 10.94%. [5] - **Contract Data**: For contracts, EC2506 is 1316.2, down 0.29% from 1320.0; EC2608 is 1486.1, down 0.71% from 1496.7; EC2610 is 1049.3, down 0.92% from 1059.0; EC2512 is 1613.0, up 0.31% from 1608.0; EC2602 is 1824.5, up 1.38% from 1799.7; EC2604 is 1154.8, down 0.83% from 1164.5. [5] - **Position Data**: EC2606 position is 2249, up 123 from 2126; EC2608 position is 1192; EC2610 position is 6049, up 108 from 5941; EC2512 position is 1675, down 39 from 1714; EC2602 position is 31849, down 2401 from 34250; EC2604 position is 21462, up 208 from 21254. [5] - **Monthly Spread**: The 12 - 02 monthly spread is - 211.5, down 19.8 from - 191.7; the 12 - 04 monthly spread is 458.2, up 14.7 from 443.5; the 02 - 04 monthly spread is 669.7, up 34.5 from 635.2. [5] 3.2 Market Overview - The EC market shows a volatile trend. [7] 3.3 Spot Price - **Gemini Alliance**: MSK's freight rate in the second week of January rose to 2540 dollars/FEU, a 40 - dollar increase compared to the opening price, with the overall offline loading rate increasing. HPL - SPOT's price in the first half of January dropped from 3535 dollars/FEU to 3035 dollars/FEU, and there is an expected increase back to 3535 dollars/FEU in the second half of January. [8] - **OCEAN Alliance**: OOCL's freight rate in the first half of January remained flat at 3180 - 3230 dollars/FEU. CMA's freight rate in the first half of January rose slightly from 3245 dollars/FEU to 3293 dollars/FEU. [8] - **MSC&PA Alliance**: ONE has an expected online price increase to 2835 dollars/FEU in the second half of January. Offline, the FAK quote in the first half of January was 2800 dollars/PEU, up 120 dollars/FEU from the end of December. YML's offline quote is 2800 dollars/FEU, with special prices available for large volumes. [8] 3.4 Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see. [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The global shipping market is showing complex trends. The return of container ships to the Red Sea route is a significant development signal, but the actual impact on supply and demand is limited for now. The FEWB and TAWB routes are affected by factors such as ship - company capacity control, port congestion, and strong e - commerce demand, which support the freight rates at a high level during the Christmas and New Year period. In the EC market, the spot price is relatively stable, and the futures market is expected to move upward due to factors like the correction of previous extreme pessimistic expectations, coordinated price - holding by leading shipping companies, and improved supply - demand conditions [6][7][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is at 1506, up 7.79% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1118, up 0.29%. SCFI - West US is at 1780, up 14.84%; SCFIS - West US is at 924, down 3.75%; SCFI - East US is at 2652, up 14.56%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 1538, up 9.86%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 1510, up 0.07%; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2737, up 19.00% [5] - **Futures Contract Price**: Futures contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., show different degrees of decline. For example, EC2506 is at 1270.5, down 1.03% [5] - **Contract Holdings**: Holdings of different contracts also have changes. For instance, EC2606 holdings are 2272, a decrease of 34 from the previous value [5] - **Monthly Spread**: The 12 - 02 monthly spread is - 44.2, up 23.6 from the previous value; the 12 - 04 monthly spread is 515.6, up 7.7; the 02 - 04 monthly spread is 559.8, down 15.9 [5] 3.2 Market News and Impact - CMA CGM announced that its INDAMEX route will pass through the Suez Canal, indicating a significant step for container ships to return to the Red Sea route. The traffic volume through the Bab el Mandeb Strait has reached the highest level since January 2024 [6] - On the FEWB route, shipping companies strictly control capacity in December, with a low blank - sailing rate of 0.9%. European ports are congested, and strong e - commerce demand supports freight rates. On the TAWB route, ports in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean are severely congested due to labor disputes, and there is a shortage of containers and trailers in many European countries [6] 3.3 EC Market - **Market Review**: The market shows weak fluctuations. Maersk's quotes for the first week of December are 2500, and 2700 for the route to London, the same as at the beginning of December, after previously announcing an increase to 3500 [7] - **Logic Analysis**: On the spot side, the price has stabilized at 2400 US dollars. Leading shipping companies' coordinated price - holding actions have strengthened market confidence. In terms of supply and demand, European seasonal stocking drives up cargo volume, and the weekly average capacity on European routes shrinks in late December. The limited progress of Red Sea re - navigation has not increased supply negatively. These factors jointly drive the futures market to move upward [9] - **Strategy**: Try to short the 02 contract with a small position at high prices [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Global major liner company CMA CGM's decision to use the Suez Canal for its INDAMEX route is a significant signal of container ships' large - scale return to the Red Sea route. The traffic volume through the Bab el Mande Strait has reached the highest since January 2024 [6]. - The FEWB route in December saw shipping companies strictly control capacity, with a low blank - sailing rate of 0.9%. Combined with ship maintenance, reduced capacity; port congestion in Europe and strong e - commerce demand supported freight rates, and shipping companies' GRI push led the market up [6]. - The TAWB route had serious port congestion in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean due to labor disputes, with yard utilization over 90%, and many European countries faced shortages of containers and trailers [6]. - In the EC market, the spot price of Maersk for the first week of December was 2500, and the price to London was 2700, unchanged from early December. The market was in an oscillatory state [7]. - On the spot side, price quotes stabilized at 2400 US dollars. In December, the freight rate center increased by over 200 US dollars compared to the first half of the month. Shipping companies' coordinated price - holding actions strengthened market confidence. On the supply - demand side, European seasonal stocking increased cargo volume, shipping companies' loading rates improved, and effective supply was not overly loose. The limited progress of Red Sea re - navigation did not increase supply negatives, leading to the 2602 contract's upward oscillation [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **SCFI**: The current value is 1506, up 7.79% from the previous value of 1398 [5]. - **CCFI**: The current value is 1118, up 0.29% from the previous value of 1115 [5]. - **SCFI - US West**: The current value is 1780, up 14.84% from the previous value of 1550 [5]. - **SCFIS - US West**: The current value is 924, down 3.75% from the previous value of 960 [5]. - **SCFI - US East**: The current value is 2652, up 14.56% from the previous value of 2315 [5]. - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1538, up 9.86% from the previous value of 1400 [5]. - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1510, up 0.07% from the previous value of 1509 [5]. - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 2737, up 19.00% from the previous value of 2300 [5]. 3.2 Shipping Derivative Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., their current values, previous values, and corresponding percentage changes are provided. For example, EC2506's current value is 1283.7, down 0.49% from the previous value of 1290.0 [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current and previous positions and their changes are given for contracts such as EC2606, EC2608, etc. For example, EC2606's current position is 2306, with a change of 1 from the previous value of 2305 [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The current values, previous values, and changes of spreads like 12 - 02, 12 - 04, etc. are presented. For example, the 12 - 02 spread's current value is - 67.8, down 12.5 from the previous value of - 55.3 [5]. 4. Strategy - Recommend a small - position short - selling attempt on the 02 contract when the price is high [10]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot freight rate of the European route has increased, with the freight rate center in late December rising by over $200 compared to early December. The leading shipping companies' price - holding actions have strengthened market confidence. The supply - demand situation shows that the seasonal stocking in Europe has increased the cargo volume and the shipping companies' loading rate. The weekly average capacity of the European route has shrunk in late December, and the effective supply is not overly loose. The resumption of shipping in the Red Sea has made limited progress, and the previous extremely pessimistic expectations in the market are gradually being revised, driving the market to fluctuate upwards. However, the strategy suggests short - selling the 02 contract with a small position at high prices. [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1506, 1118, 1780, 924, 2652, 1538, 1510, and 2737 respectively. The corresponding previous values are 1398, 1115, 1550, 960, 2315, 1400, 1509, and 2300, with the respective growth rates being 7.79%, 0.29%, 14.84%, - 3.75%, 14.56%, 9.86%, 0.07%, and 19.00%. [5] Shipping Derivative Contracts - For contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604, the current values are 1290.0, 1462.4, 1041.2, 1631.5, 1686.8, and 1112.7 respectively. The previous values are 1306.7, 1479.9, 1053.8, 1649.8, 1746.0, and 1149.7, with the growth rates of - 1.28%, - 1.18%, - 1.20%, - 1.11%, - 3.39%, and - 3.22%. [5] Shipping Contract Positions - The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 2305, 1351, 4711, 2566, 32483, and 19928 respectively. The previous positions are 2335, 1441, 4739, 2724, 33065, and 19657, with the changes of - 30, - 90, - 28, - 158, - 582, and 271. [5] Shipping Contract Month - to - Month Differences - The month - to - month differences of 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 are currently - 55.3, 518.8, and 574.1 respectively. The previous values are - 96.2, 500.1, and 596.3, with the changes of 40.9, 18.7, and - 22.2. [5] Market News and Trends - CMA CGM has announced that its INDAMEX route will use the Suez Canal for both forward and return voyages between India/Pakistan and the US East Coast, which is seen as a significant step in the large - scale return of container ships to the Red Sea route. The traffic through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait has reached the highest level since January 2024. The FEWB route in December has a low blank sailing rate of 0.9% and reduced capacity due to ship maintenance. Ports in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean are congested, and strong e - commerce demand supports freight rates. The TAWB route has serious congestion in Nordic and Mediterranean ports due to labor disputes, and there is a shortage of containers and trailers in many European countries. [6] EC Market Review - The EC market is in a downward trend. The spot prices in early December from MSK, HPL, OOCL, CMA, EM3, QNE, and MSC are $2500, $2350, $2300, $350, $3100, $2450, and $2450 respectively. In late December, the prices from MSK, HPL, and CMA are $2400, $2050, and $350. MSK plans to raise the price to $3500 in January. [7] Market Logic and Strategy - In the spot market, the PA alliance's low - price cargo collection in the early stage led to a large number of "rolled cargoes". The blank sailing on the FE3 route in week 51 alleviated the cargo - collection pressure, and the freight rate stabilized at $2400. The leading shipping companies' price - holding actions have strengthened market confidence. In terms of supply and demand, the seasonal stocking in Europe has increased the cargo volume, and the shipping companies' loading rate has improved. The weekly average capacity of the European route has shrunk in late December, and the effective supply is not overly loose. The resumption of shipping in the Red Sea has made limited progress, and the previous extremely pessimistic expectations in the market are gradually being revised. The strategy is to short - sell the 02 contract with a small position at high prices. [9][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current market shows a state of "near - term decline, long - term expectation". The freight rate framework for late December has been clarified but needs further implementation, while the outline of January freight rates is emerging. The market is in an entangled state and needs time to resolve disturbing factors. The report currently holds a neutral and wait - and - see attitude towards the market [8]. - The strategy recommended in the report is to adopt a wait - and - see approach [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Index - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is currently at 1506, up 7.79% from the previous value of 1398. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1118, up 0.29% from 1112. SCFI - US West is 1780, up 14.84%; SCFIS - US West is 960, up 1.18%; SCFI - US East is 2652, up 14.56%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1538, up 9.86%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1509, up 1.75%, and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2737, up 19.00% [5]. Contract Information - For contracts, EC2506 is currently at 1260.8, up 2.75%; EC2608 is 1431.7, up 3.61%; EC2610 is 1030.0, up 0.82%; EC2512 is 1650.0, down 0.19%; EC5602 is 1677.8, down 0.66%; EC2604 is 1106.0, up 1.22% [5]. - Regarding contract positions, the current position of EC2606 is 2355, an increase of 59 from the previous value; EC2608 is 1555; EC2610 is 4582, an increase of 291; EC2512 is 2947, a decrease of 84; EC2602 is 31664, an increase of 41; EC2604 is 19930, an increase of 653 [5]. - For monthly spreads, the 12 - 02 spread is currently - 27.8, an increase of 8.1 from the previous value; the 12 - 04 spread is 544.0, a decrease of 16.4; the 02 - 04 spread is 571.8, a decrease of 24.5 [5]. Market News and Impact - Global major liner company CMA CGM has announced that its INDAMEX route will use the Suez Canal for both forward and return voyages between India/Pakistan and the US East Coast, which is seen as a significant step for container ships to return to the Red Sea route. The traffic volume through key channels such as the Suez Canal and the Bab el Mandeb has reached the highest level since January 2024 [6]. - On the FEWB route, shipping companies strictly controlled capacity in December, with a blank sailing rate of only 0.9%, and ship maintenance further reduced capacity. Ports in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean are congested, leading to longer ship turnaround times and more cargo rejections, while strong e - commerce demand supports freight rates, and shipping companies' GRI promotions drive up the market. Freight rates are expected to remain high during Christmas and the New Year. On the TAWB route, ports in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean are severely congested due to labor disputes, with yard utilization rates exceeding 90%, and many European countries face shortages of containers and trailers [6]. EC Market - The EC market shows a volatile trend. In early December, MSK quoted 2500, HPL quoted 2350, etc.; in late December, MSK quoted 2400, HPL quoted 2050, etc. MSK has issued a price increase letter for January, aiming for 3500 [7]. - In the main contract, there is a fierce game between long and short positions. Long - position investors rely on the dual expectations of price increases in late December and January to confirm the market's landing expectations, waiting for the "catalyst" of high expectations in January. Short - position investors rely on the time advantage, hoping for more price cuts in late December, an early peak, and a price war, and believe that most of the expectations have been factored into the price. The current attitude is neutral and wait - and - see [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Research Institute, Energy and Chemical Research Center [5] - Date: November 20, 2025 [5] Group 2: Shipping Index Data Spot Freight Index - **Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI)**: Current value is 1451, down 2.92% from the previous value of 1495 [5] - **China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI)**: Current value is 1094, up 3.39% from the previous value of 1058 [5] - **SCFI - US West Coast**: Current value is 1823, down 17.59% from the previous value of 2212 [5] - **SCFIS - US West Coast**: Current value is 1238, down 6.85% from the previous value of 1329 [5] - **SCFI - US East Coast**: Current value is 2600, down 8.71% from the previous value of 2848 [5] - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: Current value is 1417, up 7.11% from the previous value of 1323 [5] - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: Current value is 1357, down 9.77% from the previous value of 1504 [5] - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: Current value is 2029, unchanged from the previous value [5] Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices**: EC2506 at 1382.0 (down 0.22%), EC2608 at 1490.1 (down 1.29%), EC2610 at 1110.0 (down 0.18%), EC2512 at 1763.3 (down 0.35%), EC2602 at 1640.1 (down 2.26%), EC2604 at 1162.7 (down 1.43%) [5] - **Contract Positions**: EC2606 at 1582 (down 3), EC2608 at 1212, EC2610 at 2520, EC2512 at 9568 (down 864), EC2602 at 40244 (up 1384), EC2604 at 15944 (down 201) [5] - **Monthly Spreads**: 12 - 02 at 123.2 (up 31.8), 12 - 04 at 600.6 (up 10.7), 02 - 04 at 477.4 (down 21.1) [5] Group 3: Market News and Events - **Holiday Arrangement**: The last trading Monday in February 2026 for container shipping index (European line) futures EC2602 is February 9 [6][8] - **Geopolitical Event**: Iran carried out a maritime attack near the Oman Gulf targeting Israel [6] - **Shipping Route Change**: CMA CGM JULES VERNE/ MEX1 is directly passing through the Red Sea/Suez Canal instead of rounding the Cape of Good Hope as scheduled [6] Group 4: Spot Price and Market Logic - **Spot Prices**: In late November, NSK quoted 2020, HPL 2850, 00CL 2300, CMA 3150, MSC 2350, HML 2500, YML 2550, ONE 2650; in early December, MSK quoted 3200, HPL 3250, ONE 2450 (MSK's final December quote was 2500) [7] - **Market Logic**: There are still expected 1 - 2 rounds of price increases during the peak season. The price increases in early December conflict with the price differentiation in late November. The loading situation in November needs to be monitored to see if it can support the December price hikes. The timing and magnitude of the peak price in December are uncertain [7] Group 5: Contract Adjustment and Strategy - **Contract Adjustment**: The final trading day of the container shipping index (European line) futures EC2602 is February 9, 2026. The delivery settlement price is now calculated based on the weighted average of the underlying index prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026, instead of February 9, 16, and 23. This adjustment is favorable for the EC2602 contract, but investors should avoid chasing high prices [8] - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the EC2512 contract is gradually losing trading value [9]