1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping market shows a weak and volatile trend. The main reason is that CM4 raised the November freight rate to 3000, and MSK kept the freight rate for the second week of October at 1400, which increased the expectation of stopping the decline. However, the confidence in price increases gradually declined, and there was a reduction in positions and a price drop before the holiday [7]. - In late September, shipping companies collectively lowered prices to compete for goods, and the freight rate once dropped to 1300 US dollars/FEU. Before the peak season at the end of the year, Maersk took the lead in announcing a 400 - dollar/FEU increase for the second half of October. But with the decline in both supply and demand in October, it is likely to return to the off - season market. Subsequently, European routes will focus on stabilizing and supporting prices during the transition between the off - season and peak season, and it is difficult for shipping companies' announced price increases to materialize [8]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct a long - short spread trade between the October and December contracts [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1115, 1087, 1460, 921, 2385, and 971 respectively, with corresponding declines of - 6.97%, - 2.93%, - 10.76%, - 22.80%, - 6.73%, and - 7.70% compared to the previous values. The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1120 and 1485 respectively, with declines of - 6.12% and - 9.34% [5]. - **Contract Freight Index**: The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1452.7, 1595.0, 1115.0, 1756.3, 1667.0, and 1253.0 respectively, with declines of - 2.08%, - 1.37%, - 2.11%, - 1.16%, - 1.07%, and - 1.23% compared to the previous values [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 930, 530, 29314, 20683, 8852, and 9110 respectively. The position changes are - 8, - 12, - 3117, - 1012, 84, and 11 respectively [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are - 641.3, 89.3, and 503.3 respectively, with changes of - 3.3, - 2.7, and - 5.1 compared to the previous values [5]. 3.2 Market News and Analysis - Trans - Pacific shipping companies are increasing capacity cuts to curb the decline in freight rates. On the east - west trans - Pacific routes, the spot freight rate has fallen below the fixed contract price signed by medium - sized retailers in May. In the next four weeks, trans - Pacific liner companies will accelerate the implementation of blank sailings to stabilize the continuously falling spot freight rate. The market is unusually weak before the Golden Week this year [6]. - The spot prices this week: GEMINI in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The market FMK freight rate center in late September was at 1500 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market is experiencing a rebound, mainly due to the market's increased expectation of interest rate cuts after Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the anticipation of a rush to ship furniture before potential tariffs. However, the current shipping market demand remains weak, with spot freight rates accelerating to the bottom, and the overall trend is downward [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Index Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and related sub - indices showed declines, with SCFI - Northwest Europe having the largest decline of - 8.35%, and EC2510 in the derivatives having the largest increase of 3.74% [5]. - **Positions**: There were changes in the positions of various contracts, such as a decrease of 22 in the EC2606 position and an increase of 102 in the EC2410 position [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 all increased, with the 12 - 4 spread increasing by 16.0 [5]. 3.2 Market Situation - **Demand and Supply**: The demand in the shipping market is weak. In late August, the increase in overtime ships pressured the spot freight rates. The market is buyer - dominated, and there are no clear price - increase plans from shipping companies. The announced empty - sailing rate for European routes in September is low, and the supply of shipping capacity is abundant in the short term [8]. - **Port Conditions**: European main ports such as Germany and the Netherlands are congested, and the on - time rate of the Asia - Europe route has decreased by 13.3%, which may affect subsequent cabin allocation and arrival cycles [8]. - **Policy Impact**: Trump's potential tariff policy on furniture and the global over - capacity problem have further suppressed trade volume [8]. 3.3 Market Trend and Strategy - **Trend**: Shipping companies are accelerating the price - cut rhythm to maintain market share, and the overall downward trend of freight rates is established. The spot freight rate is in the stage of accelerating to the bottom, and the follow - up decline of the futures market may be smaller [9]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to short the October contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a state of shock, mainly due to the increase in over - capacity during the off - season caused by overtime ships, leading to a lower opening of the main contract [6]. - Spot prices have peaked. Quotes started to weaken in early August, and this will drive prices in late August to decline. It is expected that spot prices will peak at the end of July and early August, then slowly decline until late August when the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract is the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [7]. - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies (profits can be taken as there has been a significant recent correction), and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [8]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Contents Shipping Freight Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI)**: The current value is 1551, the previous value was 1593, with a decline of 2.63% [3][4]. - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The current value is 1233, the previous value was 1261, with a decline of 2.27% [3][4]. - **SCFI - US West Coast**: The current value is 2021, the previous value was 2067, with a decline of 2.23% [3][4]. - **SCFIS - US West Coast**: The current value is 1130, the previous value was 1284, with a sharp decline of 11.99% [3][4]. - **SCFI - US East Coast**: The current value is 3126, the previous value was 3378, with a decline of 7.46% [3][4]. - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 2051, the previous value was 2090, with a decline of 1.87% [3][4]. - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 2297, the previous value was 2316, with a decline of 0.82% [3][4]. - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 2333, the previous value was 2418, with a decline of 3.52% [3][4]. EC Contracts Price - **EC2506**: The current value is 1453.2, the previous value was 1465.1, with a decline of 0.81% [3][4]. - **EC2508**: The current value is 2122.3, the previous value was 2126.5, with a decline of 0.20% [3][4]. - **EC2510**: The current value is 1421.8, the previous value was 1424.0, with a decline of 0.15% [3][4]. - **EC2512**: The current value is 1677.2, the previous value was 1692.4, with a decline of 0.90% [3][4]. - **EC5602**: The current value is 1470.2, the previous value was 1490.0, with a decline of 1.33% [3][4]. - **EC2604**: The current value is 1315.1, the previous value was 1325.0, with a decline of 0.75% [3][4]. Position - **EC2606 Position**: The current value is 795, the same as the previous value, with a change of 0 [3][4]. - **EC2508 Position**: The current value is 4367, the previous value was 4465, with a decline of 98 [3][4]. - **EC2410 Position**: The current value is 51053, the previous value was 52376, with a decline of 1323 [3][4]. - **EC2412 Position**: The current value is 8387, the previous value was 8440, with a decline of 53 [3][4]. - **EC2602 Position**: The current value is 4139, the previous value was 4142, with a decline of 3 [3][4]. - **EC2604 Position**: The current value is 5146, the previous value was 5112, with an increase of 34 [3][4]. Monthly Spread - **10 - 12 Spread**: The current value is - 255.4, the previous value was - 268.4, with an increase of 13.0 [3][4]. - **12 - 2 Spread**: The current value is 207.0, the previous value was 202.4, with an increase of 4.6 [3][4]. - **12 - 4 Spread**: The current value is 362.1, the previous value was 367.4, with a decline of 5.3 [3][4].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [3] - Date: August 4, 2025 [4] - Author: Lu Zhaoyi from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] - Data Sources: Clarksons, Wind [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The market for shipping derivatives is in a state of shock. Spot prices started to weaken in early August, leading to a synchronous decline in late August. The peak of spot prices is showing signs, and it is expected that the freight rates of scheduled cargo will peak at the end of July and early August, then gradually decline until late August when the decline slope will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract game is the decline slope of freight rates from August to October. The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies (take profit as it has corrected significantly recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [6][7]. Group 4: Shipping Index Analysis Freight Rate Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI)**: The current value is 1551, down 2.63% from the previous value of 1593 [4]. - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The current value is 1233, down 2.27% from the previous value of 1261 [4]. - **SCFI - US West**: The current value is 2021, down 2.23% from the previous value of 2067 [4]. - **SCFIS - US West**: The current value is 1284, down 1.31% from the previous value of 1301 [4]. - **SCFI - US East**: The current value is 3126, down 7.46% from the previous value of 3378 [4]. - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 2051, down 1.87% from the previous value of 2090 [4]. - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 2316, down 3.50% from the previous value of 2400 [4]. - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 2333, down 3.52% from the previous value of 2418 [4]. EC Contracts Price - **EC2506**: The current value is 1465.1, up 0.18% from the previous value of 1462.5 [4]. - **EC2508**: The current value is 2126.5, up 0.23% from the previous value of 2121.6 [4]. - **EC2510**: The current value is 1424.0, down 0.08% from the previous value of 1425.1 [4]. - **EC2512**: The current value is 1692.4, up 0.01% from the previous value of 1692.3 [4]. - **EC5602**: The current value is 1490.0, up 0.36% from the previous value of 1484.7 [4]. - **EC2604**: The current value is 1325.0, up 0.07% from the previous value of 1324.1 [4]. Position - **EC2606 Position**: The current value is 795, down 13 from the previous value of 808 [4]. - **EC2508 Position**: The current value is 4465, down 408 from the previous value of 4873 [4]. - **EC2410 Position**: The current value is 52376, up 558 from the previous value of 51818 [4]. - **EC2412 Position**: The current value is 8440, down 20 from the previous value of 8460 [4]. - **EC2602 Position**: The current value is 4142, down 82 from the previous value of 4224 [4]. - **EC2604 Position**: The current value is 5112, up 29 from the previous value of 5083 [4]. Calendar Spread - **10 - 12 Spread**: The current value is - 268.4, down 1.2 from the previous value of - 267.2 [4]. - **12 - 2 Spread**: The current value is 202.4, down 5.2 from the previous value of 207.6 [4]. - **12 - 4 Spread**: The current value is 367.4, down 0.8 from the previous value of 368.2 [4]. Group 5: Spot Market Analysis - **GEMINI**: Maersk's wk33 opening price increased from 2800 to 2900, while HPL's price dropped to 3150 in early August [6]. - **04**: The average quoted price in early August was 3300, with CMA at 3450, EMC at 3500, and OCCL at 3250 [6]. - **PA**: Due to a large open position, the price continued to drop to 3100 and is likely to be further adjusted downwards. ONE's price is 3150, and HMM's is 3100 [6]. - **MSC**: The quoted price in early August was 3350 [6]. Group 6: Strategy Recommendations - Short the 10 - contract on rallies (take profit as it has corrected significantly recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market has seen a significant upward trend, with the EC2510 contract rising over 16% today and over 20% in two days [8][9] - The main reasons for the sharp increase in the 10 and far - month contracts are the change of the main contract from 2508 to 2510, better - than - expected spot market and European port congestion, and some assistance from geopolitical factors [10][11] - In the future, there may still be a rush to transport in July. The current situation of the European route is stable reality and weak expectation. After the deep discount repair in the futures market, investors should not chase the high [11] - The strategy is to hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1733, down 1.71%; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1314, down 2.18%. Different routes have different changes, such as a 5.03% increase in SCFI - US West and a 7.22% increase in SCFIS - Northwest Europe [4] - **Contract Data**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., prices and their changes vary. For example, the EC2510 contract price is 1440.7, up 4.25%. The positions of different contracts also change, with the EC2410 position increasing by 3971 [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread is 586.5, down 62.1; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is - 139.8, up 19.1; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 361.9, up 13.1 [4] Geopolitical and Trade News - Israel has accepted a 60 - day cease - fire and hostage release agreement draft proposed by Qatar, but Hamas has rejected it. The core of the deadlock lies in the map parameters of the Israeli army's withdrawal from Gaza [5] - Israel's Defense Minister said that if Iran threatens Israel, Israel will strike Iran again [6] - Russian President Putin is privately urging Iran to accept a "zero enrichment" nuclear agreement in exchange for the possibility of a new nuclear agreement with the US [6] - The US has imposed a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, escalating trade tensions [6] - The Philippine government has ordered shipping agencies to avoid the Bab el - Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea due to attacks on commercial vessels [7] - US Secretary of State Rubio said that the possibility of a summit between US President Trump and China is high [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall EC market showed a volatile downward trend [9]. - Spot prices in May averaged between 1700 - 1800 $/FEU, with a slight decline compared to early May. Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on the US route, airlines attempted to raise June freight rates on the European route. Market sentiment was influenced by shipping companies' price adjustments [10]. - The strategy is to gradually take profit on long positions and arbitrage [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was at 1586, up 7.21% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was at 1107, up 0.23%. Rates on different routes had varying changes, such as a 5.95% increase on the SCFI - US West route and a - 1.44% decrease on the SCFIS - Northwest Europe route [5]. - **Contracts**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., most showed a decline. For example, EC2506 was at 1773.0, down - 0.51% from the previous value [5]. - **Positions**: Positions of different contracts also changed. For instance, EC2506's position decreased by 1440 to 15946 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread was 600.1, down 65.0 from the previous value [5]. Spot Market - **May Spot**: The average price in May was between 1700 - 1800 $/FEU, with a slight decline compared to early May [10]. - **June Price Adjustments**: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on the US route, airlines tried to raise June freight rates on the European route. Some shipping companies made price adjustments, such as CMA reducing prices in early and mid - June, and Maersk adjusting prices on different routes [10]. Market Conditions - **Overall Trend**: The market was in a volatile downward trend. After the Sino - US negotiation results exceeded expectations, contracts first rose rapidly and then returned to fundamental games, with overall volatility this week [9][10]. - **Contract Focus Shift**: As the June pricing became clearer, the market started to focus on the more certain 06 contract, and the spread between the 6 - 8 contracts began to shrink [10]. Trade News - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days [6]. - US President Trump said the US may unilaterally set new tariff rates for many trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7]. - The fourth round of Japan - US tariff negotiations is scheduled for the 30th [8]. - Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting from June 1st [8].

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - The report is titled "Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report" [4] - It is from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute, written by Lu Zhaoyi, with an investment consulting number of Z0021177 and a qualification number of F03101843, dated May 27, 2025 [5] - The data sources are Clarksons and Wind [5] Group 2: Shipping Freight Index Spot Freight Index - The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1586, with a previous value of 1479 and a rise of 7.21% [5] - The current value of the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1107, with a previous value of 1105 and a rise of 0.23% [5] - For SCFI sub - routes: SCFI - US West is 3275 (up 5.95%), SCFIS - US West is 1720 (up 18.92%), SCFI - US East is 4284 (up 5.28%), SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1317 (up 14.12%), SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1247 (down 1.44%), and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2328 (up 11.82%) [5] EC Futures Price Index - Futures contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 show a general downward trend. For example, EC2506 is at 1841.5 (down 0.51%), and EC2508 is at 2085.0 (down 6.29%) [5] Futures Contract Positions - Positions of EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 have different changes. For example, EC2506 position decreased by 547, and EC2410 position increased by 1089 [5] Futures Contract Month - to - Month Spreads - The month - to - month spreads 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 all decreased. For example, the 10 - 12 spread decreased by 69.7 [5] Group 3: Market News - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days [6] - US President Trump said that the US may unilaterally set new tariff rates for many trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7] - Hamas and Israel held a new round of Gaza cease - fire negotiations in Doha [8] - Brussels may impose a 2 - euro handling fee on billions of small packages mainly imported from China. Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting from June 1st [9] Group 4: EC Market Analysis - The EC market shows a downward trend with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [10] - In the spot market, the average price of May spot is still between 1700 - 1800 $/FEU, with a slight decline compared to early May. Affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiation news and the recovery of US - bound demand, airlines are trying to raise the June freight rate on the European route to 3200 - 3300 $/FEU [11] - In the futures market, after the Sino - US negotiation results exceeded expectations last week, the contracts first rose rapidly and then returned to fundamental analysis. As the June pricing becomes clearer, the market focuses more on the 06 contract, and the spread between the 6 - 8 contracts begins to shrink [11] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Long positions and arbitrage positions can be gradually closed for profit [12]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about shipping derivatives data and the market situation of EC shipping futures [4][5][9] Group 2: Shipping Rate Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1345, 1106, 2347, 1455, 3335, and 1161 respectively, with daily changes of 0.32%, -1.31%, 3.30%, 10.19%, 1.58%, and -3.25% [5] - The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1303 and 2089 respectively, with daily changes of -5.54% and 0.00% [5] Group 3: Shipping Futures - The current values of EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1685.0, 2280.0, 1445.0, 1595.0, 1419.5, and 1241.7 respectively, with daily changes of -5.72%, -3.36%, -1.34%, -1.01%, -2.04%, and -2.47% [5] - The current values of EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 positions are 34207, 48759, 23558, 5138, 3214, and 3463 respectively, with daily changes of -4355, 245, -898, 34, -80, and 8 [5] - The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 spreads are 835.0, -150.0, and 353.3 respectively, with daily changes of -59.6, -3.5, and 15.3 [5] Group 4: Market News - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days [6] - US President Trump said that the US may unilaterally set new tariff rates for many trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7] - Hamas and Israel held a new round of cease - fire negotiations in Doha [8] - The US reduced the tariff on small parcels from 120% to 54% [8] Group 5: Market Analysis and Strategy - The EC market showed a downward trend with a divergence between near and far months [9] - The average price of May spot remained between 1700 - 1800 $/FEU, with a slight decline compared to early May [9] - Affected by the news of China - US tariff negotiations and the recovery of demand on the US route, airlines collectively tried to raise the freight rate on the European route in June to 3200 $/FEU, except for Maersk, which quoted 1800 $/FEU until mid - June [9] - The market rose rapidly due to the better - than - expected news of the first China - US tariff negotiation in Switzerland and the airlines' simultaneous increase of June freight rates. After filling the gap, short - term positive factors were exhausted, and the near - month contract fell on Friday [9] - The strategy is to gradually take profits on long positions and arbitrage [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, affected by the significant breakthrough in China-US tariff negotiations, the container shipping European route opened higher in the morning. The market expected significant tariff benefits after the closing, and almost all contracts hit the daily limit. On Tuesday, the market sentiment subsided, and concerns about tariff reversals and the strength of the linkage between the European and US routes emerged [9]. - The current spot freight rate has fallen below the long - term contract price and is approaching the cost line, with limited downward space. The 1350$/FEU is an important observation point to see if airlines will "reduce ships" for reporting purposes. The European route freight is in a state of oversupply, with general cargo volume and relatively large supply [9]. - The view that demand is postponed after the tariff suspension has been largely disproven. The 08 peak - season contract will benefit the most, and there may be a rush to export during the peak season in the next 90 days, with some overseas importers starting to replenish inventory for year - end holidays [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI)**: The present value is 1345, with a 0.32% increase from the previous value of 1341 [5]. - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The present value is 1106, a 1.31% decrease from the previous value of 1121 [5]. - **SCFI Sub - routes**: SCFI - US West increased by 3.30% to 2347; SCFIS - US West rose by 10.19% to 1455; SCFI - US East increased by 1.58% to 3335; SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 3.25% to 1161; SCFIS - Northwest Europe dropped by 5.54% to 1303; SCFI - Mediterranean remained unchanged at 2089 [5]. 3.2 EC Contracts - **Contract Prices**: EC2506 increased by 3.55% to 1787.3; EC2508 rose by 7.92% to 2359.3; EC2510 decreased by 5.01% to 1464.7; EC2512 dropped by 5.78% to 1611.2; EC2602 decreased by 4.56% to 1449.0; EC2604 decreased by 3.11% to 1273.2 [5]. - **Contract Positions**: EC2506's position increased by 61 to 38562; EC2508's position increased by 2731 to 48514; EC2410's position increased by 578 to 24456; EC2412's position increased by 110 to 5104; EC2602's position decreased by 29 to 3294; EC2604's position increased by 353 to 3455 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12 spread increased by 250.5 to 894.6; the 12 - 2 spread increased by 21.5 to - 146.5; the 12 - 4 spread decreased by 57.9 to 338.0 [5]. 3.3 Tariff Adjustments - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days [5]. - The US will suspend the 24% tariff on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macao) for the initial 90 days and retain the remaining 10% tariff, and cancel the additional tariffs imposed by certain executive orders [6]. - The US will reduce the tariff on small parcels from 120% to 54%, maintain a 100 - dollar per - item specific tariff, and cancel the planned increase to 200 dollars [6]. 3.4 Market Strategies - Long positions and arbitrage can be gradually closed for profit [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot freight rate on the European route has been continuously sluggish, with three consecutive price increases failing from March to May due to weak fundamentals. The average freight rate in early May fell below $2000. Although the loading rate at the end of the month was good, the high capacity deployment at the end of April did not lead to a significant improvement in freight rates. It is difficult to raise prices in May as a whole. Usually, freight rates enter the peak season in May, but this year it is expected to lose one - month's price increase slope, and short - term spot freight rates may fluctuate slightly [11]. - The demand on the US route shows resilience, with high trans - shipment demand from Southeast Asia, Japan, and South Korea. The US is at the bottom of the inventory and transportation cycle, and the freight rate is gradually recovering, with the supply - demand situation turning around. However, due to the variable US tariff policy, the peak season on the US route is expected to be postponed [11]. - About 10 additional vessels were transferred from the US route to the European route in May, which may be a one - time adjustment, only impacting the supply on the European route in May. As it takes 3 - 4 months for a round - trip on the European route, it is difficult for the vessels to return to Asia before the peak season, which may lead to a shortage of vessels during the peak season on the US route and push up the peak - season freight rate center on the European and US routes [11]. - After the continuous decline in the futures market, there is no need to panic excessively. The fundamentals are forming an inflection point in late April and May, but the inflection point is not achieved overnight. The peak - season contracts are still bullish at the current level, and investors with relatively high risk tolerance can choose to buy at low prices. Given the variable macro - policies, most investors prefer to wait and see, and it is recommended to reasonably control positions and avoid risks before holidays [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1348, 1112, 2141, 1230, 3257, 1260, 1429, and 2129 respectively. The corresponding previous values are 1370, 1111, 2103, 1368, 3251, 1316, 1508, and 2161 respectively, with the respective changes of - 1.62%, 0.13%, 1.81%, - 10.09%, 0.18%, - 4.26%, - 5.24%, and - 1.48% [4]. - **Contract Data**: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2504, the current values are 1385.0, 1570.8, 1300.7, 1466.8, 1315.2, and 1442.0 respectively. The previous values are 1365.1, 1613.0, 1304.9, 1476.1, 1312.0, and 1440.6 respectively, with the respective changes of 1.46%, - 2.62%, - 0.32%, - 0.63%, 0.24%, and 0.10% [4]. - **Position Data**: The current positions of EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2504 are 39636, 32405, 16078, 4018, 2707, and 860 respectively. The previous positions are 40348, 31861, 16123, 4056, 2714, and 875 respectively, with the respective changes of - 712, 544, - 45, - 38, - 7, and - 15 [4]. - **Monthly Spread Data**: The current values of spreads 4 - 6, 6 - 8, and 8 - 10 are 57.0, - 185.8, and 270.1 respectively. The previous values are 75.5, - 247.9, and 308.1 respectively, with the respective changes of - 18.5, 62.1, and - 38.0 [4]. 3.2 Market News - The Trump administration is considering multiple tariff - adjustment plans. One plan may reduce the tariff rate on Chinese goods to about 15% - 65%, and the other "graded plan" will divide Chinese goods into two categories, with tariff rates of 35% and at least 100% respectively [5]. - US Treasury Secretary Bentsen said that China's exemption shows its hope to de - escalate the trade situation, the negotiations with Asian trading partners are progressing smoothly, the US government is in contact with China on all fronts, and India may be one of the first countries to sign a trade agreement with the US [6][7][8]. 3.3 Spot Freight Rate Situation - After the price - increase attempts in March and April failed, the major shipping companies' coordinated price - increase in late April was also ineffective. Maersk's price for the second half of May is $1450, and it maintains $1600 in the first half of May. OOCL's price in the first half of May dropped to $1700, and CMA's announced price increase of $4500 in May has dropped to $2145 as the booking window approaches. HPL and ONE have also lowered their May quotes, and COSCO still uses $1925 offline. It is expected that the price in the first half of May will be between $1800 - $2000 [9]. 3.4 Political Situation - The trade tariff war between the US and China has cast a pessimistic shadow over the future economy and trade volume. Currently, both sides are in a stage of accumulating chips and playing games. US Treasury Secretary Bentsen said that the current tariffs are unsustainable, but the negotiation process is long, and it may take 2 - 3 years to reach a comprehensive trade agreement. Trump also said that he will not lower the tariffs on China unless China gives the US some benefits [10].