投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 IICE FRIE 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | | 投资咨询号： Z0021177 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/11/26 | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | | 现值 | 1394 | 1123 | 1645 | 1107 | 2384 | 1367 | | STATE | 前值 | 1451 | 1094 | 1823 | 1238 | 2600 | 1417 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -3.98% | 2.63% | -9.76% | -10.58% | -8.31% | -3.53 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 IICE FRIE 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | 投资咨询号： Z0021177 | | 2025/11/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | | | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | fil | 现值 | 1394 | 1123 | 1645 | 1107 | 2384 | 1367 | | S | 前值 | 1451 | 1094 | 1823 | 1238 | 2600 | 1417 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -3.98% | 2.63% | -9.76% | -10.58% | -8.31% | -3.53% | | ​​​ | | SCFI ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 IICE FRIE 12月运价落地成色:若马士基等头部船司维持2400-2600美元/FEU的报价区间,且未出现大面积爆舱,则EC近月合约 版 继续序压。 1月涨价函执行力度:船司计划在1月再次发起涨价,但若货量持续疲软或船司报价分化加剧，涨价落地难度将增 大,02合约上行空间受限。 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | | 投资咨询号： Z0021177 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/11/24 | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | fil | 现值 | 1394 | 1123 | 1645 | 1238 | 2384 | 1367 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GER期货 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 卢钊毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | 2025/11/20 | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | 现值 | | | | | | | | == | | 1451 | 1094 | 1823 | 1238 | 2600 | 1417 | | Alle | 前值 | 1495 | 1058 | 2212 | 1329 | 2848 | 1323 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -2.92% | 3.39% | -17.59% | -6.85% | -8.71% | 7.11% | | 情 | | SCFIS- ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Report's Core View - The adjustment of the pricing cycle of the EC2602 contract is individually bullish for this contract, but the pricing is relatively full, and investors should not blindly chase the high [8]. - It is necessary to observe the loading situation in November to determine whether it can lay a good foundation for the price increase in December, and the price increase situation in December (whether it is one or two rounds) and the amplitude and time of the high point are uncertain [7]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1451, 1094, 1823, 1238, 2600, and 1417 respectively, with changes of -2.92%, 3.39%, -17.59%, -6.85%, -8.71%, and 7.11% compared to the previous values [5]. - The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1357 and 2029 respectively, with changes of -9.77% and 0.00% compared to the previous values [5]. Contract Information - The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1385.0, 1509.6, 1112.0, 1769.5, 1678.1, and 1179.6 respectively, with changes of -1.35%, -0.76%, -0.54%, -1.27%, -2.78%, and -0.68% compared to the previous values [5]. - The current values of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 positions are 1585, 1161, 2455, 10432, 38860, and 16145 respectively, with changes of (36), (12), 51, (1654), (20), and (37) compared to the previous values [5]. - The current values of the spreads 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 are 91.4, 589.9, and 498.5 respectively, with changes of 25.1, (14.7), and (39.8) compared to the previous values [5]. Spot Price - In late November, NSK quoted 2020, HPL quoted 2850, 00CL quoted 2300, CMA quoted 3150, MSC quoted 2350, HML quoted 2500, YML quoted 2550, and ONE quoted 2650. In early December, MSK quoted 3200, HPL quoted 3250, and ONE quoted 2450 (MSK's final quote in December was 2500) [7]. Contract Trading Rule Adjustment - The last trading day of the container shipping index (European Line) futures EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026. The original pricing cycle was adjusted to two weeks earlier, which is bullish for the EC2602 contract [8]. Other Information - According to the holiday arrangement in 2026, the last trading Monday in February 2026 is February 9 [6][8] - Iran carried out a maritime attack near Oman Bay targeting Israel [6] - The ship CMA CGM JULES VERNE/ MEX1 was scheduled to go around the Cape of Good Hope but actually passed through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [6]

Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report from Guomao Futures Research Institute's Energy and Chemical Research Center [3][4] Shipping Derivatives Data Freight Rate Index - The current values of the comprehensive Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - West Coast of the United States, SCFIS - West Coast of the United States, SCFI - East Coast of the United States, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1451, 1094, 1823, 1329, 2600, 1417, 1504, and 2029 respectively [5] - The previous values are 1495, 1058, 2212, 1208, 2848, 1323, 1208, and 2029 respectively [5] - The percentage changes are -2.92%, 3.39%, -17.59%, 10.02%, -8.71%, 7.11%, 24.50%, and 0.00% respectively [5] Futures Contracts - For futures contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., the current values, previous values, and percentage changes vary. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1380.7, a previous value of 1364.7, and a percentage change of 1.17% [5] - Regarding the contract positions, the current and previous positions and their changes are also provided. For instance, EC2606's current position is 1623, the previous position is 1567, and the change is 56 [5] - The current values of the monthly spreads (12 - 02, 12 - 04, 02 - 04) are 150.3, 612.0, and 461.7 respectively, with previous values of 112.8, 577.4, and 464.6 and changes of 37.5, 34.6, and -2.9 respectively [5] Market News - The last trading day of the container shipping index (European line) futures EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026 [6] - Iran carried out a reported near - sea attack on Israel in the Gulf of Oman [6] - The ship CMA CGM JULES VERNE/ MEX1, which was scheduled to go around the Cape of Good Hope, is actually heading directly through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [6] Market Analysis - The market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [7] - In late November, the spot prices of different shipping companies vary: MSK quotes 2250, HPL quotes 3150, CMA quotes 3200, YML quotes 250, and OVE quotes 2600, and shipping companies are starting to announce price increases [8] - It is expected that there will be 1 - 2 more price increases during the peak season, but the price increases announced by shipping companies in early December conflict with the current price differentiation in late November. The loading situation in November needs to be monitored to see if it can support the price increases in December. The peak price and time in December are uncertain [8] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Red Sea crisis has officially ended after two years as the Yemeni Houthi armed leadership announced the end of attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea [6]. - From 2024 - 2025, shippers were affected by geopolitics and trade wars, but in 2026, with the intensification of supply - demand imbalance, the market will favor shippers, and freight rates will continue to decline [6]. - Maersk emphasizes the advantages of its "twin - star" strategy, with annual cost savings of $720 million - $950 million and a schedule reliability of over 90% [6]. - In November, shipping capacity has recovered, with available capacity on US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15%, and the overall TPBB route capacity expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. Market demand remains healthy after the pre - peak season booking rush [6]. - The EC market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The 02 contract had a subsidy - to - premium market due to rumors of early delivery, and the market declined on Wednesday due to the end of Houthi attacks [7]. - Spot prices of different shipping companies show obvious differentiation. Key factors affecting the market include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the consistency of shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term contract variables. In the short term, the market is likely to remain strongly volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the main contract [8]. 3. Directory Summaries Shipping Index Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), and other related sub - indices are provided, along with their previous values and percentage changes. For example, SCFI decreased by 3.59%, while CCFI increased by 3.60% [3][4]. - **Contract Data**: The current values, previous values, and percentage changes of contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc. are given. For instance, EC2506 increased by 1.17% [3][4][5]. - **Position Data**: The current and previous positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2608, etc., along with their changes, are presented. For example, the position of EC2606 increased by 56 [5]. - **Monthly Spread Data**: The current values, previous values, and changes of monthly spreads such as 12 - 02, 12 - 04, etc. are provided. For example, the 12 - 02 spread increased by 37.5 [5]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **Market Analysis**: The end of the Red Sea crisis, supply - demand imbalance, Maersk's strategy, capacity recovery, and factors affecting spot prices are analyzed [6][7][8]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [9].

【1】中美贸易政策缓和释放利好:10月30日中美领导人会晤,双方确认吉隆坡磋商成果,美方明确将取消针对中国 商品加征的10%所谓 "芬太尼关税",对中国商品加征的24%对等关税继续暂停一年,同时暂停实施9月29日公布的 出口管制56%穿透性规则一年,并暂停对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年。中方将相应调整针对美方上述关 税的反制措施，暂停实施10月9日公布的相关出口管制等措施一年并研究细化具体方案，双方还同意继续延长部分关 棋排除措施。此共识显著缓解贸易摩擦对跨洋货量的压制,虽直接影响集中于美线,但市场情绪外溢带动欧线预期 ig」改善。【2】本周宣布的美中贸易协议预计将促使部分美国零售商加快短期进口节奏，以满足即时需求。然而，由于 。 致供应链战略的大幅回调。【3】非常有意思的是，因为美国政府还在停摆，美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）表示， 在收到来自美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）的新指令之前，他们仍必须继续执行并征收"301中国船舶港口费用"。我 们也在等美国海关的细则。【4】据美以官员向 Axios 透露,美国已向哈马斯武装提供从以色列控制的加沙地区撤 离至哈马斯控制区域的安全通道。【5】釜山会晤，美 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The EC market is in a volatile state. The weak volatility this week is due to some airlines starting to lower their quotes for the first ten days of November. The European line is in the regular year - end price - holding stage. The first round of defensive price - holding in late October has initially stopped the decline, and it has now entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding actions are expected in the next two months. However, attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and empty flights in November. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content China Export Container Freight Rates - **Rate Index**: The present values of SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - Northwest Europe, and the comprehensive index SCFI are 1403, 2153, 3032, 1107, and 1246 respectively, with corresponding increases of 2.02%, 6.27%, 7.11%, 11.21%, and 28.42%. The present values of SCFI - Mediterranean and SCFIS - Northwest Europe are 1312 and 1746 respectively, with increases of 15.09% and 8.25% [3]. Contracts - **Contract Price**: For contracts EC2506, EC5602, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, the present values are 1482.0, 1374.0, 1788.3, 1548.7, 1162.7 respectively, with changes of - 0.94%, 0.11%, VALUE!, 0.75%, - 1.46% [3][4]. - **Contract Position**: The present positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604 are 1402, 1313, N/A, 28900, 13910, 14279 respectively, with changes of 31, 64, VALUE!, 905, 772, 133 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The present values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4 monthly spreads are VALUE!, 239.6, 625.6 respectively, with changes of VALUE!, 36.2, 29.4 [4]. Market News - The US Treasury Secretary has reached a framework agreement with China's vice - premier to avoid 100% US tariffs on Chinese products and extend China's rare - earth export controls. The US President is confident of reaching an agreement with China's leader [5]. - Some shipping companies like CMA CGM, Maersk, and Mediterranean Shipping are re - flagging their vessels to India. The Suez Canal Authority expects its 2026 revenue to reach about $8 billion, up from the current $4 billion. The US and Vietnam have agreed on a trade framework agreement [5]. EC Market - **Spot Prices**: In late October, Maersk quoted 1800 - 1900, HPL 1900, 00CL 2600, CMA 2100, EMC 2050, NSC 2050, YML 1350, ONE 1450. In early November, ISK quoted 2400, HEJ 2500, CME 2700, OOCJ 2300, EMC 2700, MSC 2250, YML 2250, ONE 2550, HMM 1900 [6]. - **Logic and Strategy**: The European line is in the year - end price - holding stage. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The EC market is in a downward trend mainly due to some airlines starting to lower quotes for the first ten days of November. The European line is in the regular year - end price - holding stage, with the first attempt in late October showing initial results in stopping the decline, and it has entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding attempts are expected in the next two months. The strategy is to wait and see, and future attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and empty flights in November [5][6] Summary by Relevant Information Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1403, a previous value of 1310, and a change of 7.11%. For different routes, SCFI - US West has a current value of 2153, a change of 11.21%; SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1107, a change of 28.42%; SCFI - US East has a current value of 3032, a change of 6.27%; SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1246, a change of 8.82%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1312, a change of 15.09%; SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 1746, a change of 8.25%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a previous value of 973, with a change of - 100.00% [3] - **Contracts**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., most show a downward trend in price. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1387.1, a previous value of 1397.9, and a change of - 0.77% [3] - **Positions**: There are changes in positions for different contracts. For example, EC2606 position has a current value of 1371, a previous value of 1377, and a change of (6) [3] - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread has a current value of - 644.1, a previous value of - 693.2, and a change of 49.1; the 12 - 2 monthly spread has a current value of 203.4, a previous value of 230.0, and a change of (26.6); the 12 - 4 monthly spread has a current value of 596.2, a previous value of 651.4, and a change of (55.2) [3] Market News - The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he reached a "very substantial framework agreement" with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng, which will avoid 100% US tariffs on Chinese products and extend China's rare - earth export controls. US President Donald Trump is confident of reaching an agreement with Chinese leaders after the Sino - US high - level economic officials' trade consultations [4] - CMA CGM, Maersk, and Mediterranean Shipping have started to re - flag some ships to India. India's shipping policies attract shipping orders and ship registrations, while the US's shipping revitalization in 2025 has weaker results [4] - The Suez Canal Authority expects its 2026 revenue to reach about $8 billion, up from the current about $4 billion as the regional situation stabilizes and ship traffic returns to pre - crisis levels [4] - The US and Vietnam have agreed to establish a "reciprocal, fair, and balanced trade framework agreement" to strengthen bilateral economic relations and provide market access for exporters [4] EC Market - **Spot Prices**: In late October, Maersk quoted 1800 - 1900, HPL quoted 1900, 00CL quoted 2600, etc. In early November, ISK quoted 2400, HPL quoted 2500, etc., with some prices showing changes [5] - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]