EC2606等集运合约
Search documents
集运早报-20260129
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-29 01:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to recent geopolitical tensions, Maersk's stable February quotes, and potential cargo rush and price support in March, the market may be difficult to decline in the short - term. The current valuation is moderately high, and the upside potential depends on capital behavior. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies, with a focus on the far - month contract 2610, which is more affected by the off - season and policies. Caution should be exercised for the 2604 contract, unless there is significant premium in the market. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and PA alliance quotes [3] - The export tax rebate adjustment policy is negative for contracts after April. However, the valuations of the 06 and 08 contracts are hard to determine, are currently within a reasonable range, and are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Prudent operation is advised [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2602 closed at 1719.0 with a 0.09% increase; EC2604 at 1229.0 with a 2.94% increase; EC2606 at 1493.2 with a 3.54% increase; EC2608 at 1560.8 with a 2.12% increase; EC2610 at 1135.1 with a 2.08% increase [2] - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of EC2602 decreased by 309 to 3186; EC2604 increased by 1499 to 40146; EC2606 increased by 1690 to 9602; EC2608 increased by 67 to 1549; EC2610 increased by 211 to 8722 [2] - **Month - Spread Changes**: The month - spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 490.0, a day - on - day decrease of 63.6 and a week - on - week decrease of 79.9; EC2504 - 2606 was - 264.2, a day - on - day decrease of 15.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 [2] Spot Market Information - **SCFIS and SCF Indexes**: The SCFIS (European Line) index on January 26, 2026, was 1859.31 points, a 4.86% decrease from the previous period. The SCF (European Line) was 1595 dollars/TEU on January 23, 2026, a 4.85% decrease from the previous period [2] - **Shipping Company Quotes**: In Week 5, the central quote was 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures. In Week 6, the central quote was equivalent to 1580 points on the futures. MSK's February Week 7 - 9 quote was 1950 dollars, lower than market expectations [4] Related News - Hamas senior official Musa Abu Marzouk stated that Hamas has never agreed to hand over its weapons in any form, and any arrangement for Gaza must be reached through an agreement with Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has no right to boast about the release of Israeli hostages [5] - After the initial nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran failed to make progress, US President Trump is considering a new major strike against Iran. Options under consideration include air strikes on Iranian leaders and security officials, as well as attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and government institutions [5]