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集运早报-20260401
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market is expected to operate weakly but may be affected by fuel prices [3] - The valuation of the 04 contract is neutral, and the 06 contract has become the main contract. It is recommended to wait and see because it is greatly affected by geopolitical news and shipping company behavior, and its valuation is difficult to anchor [3] - Due to the ongoing and unpredictable geopolitical risks, it is recommended to observe opportunities arising from the deviation of monthly spreads, but attention should be paid to the current poor liquidity of EC [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2604 - EC2612 contracts on the previous day ranged from 1592.8 to 2586.2, with price changes from -5.46% to 2%. For example, EC2604 was 1672.9 with a -27.2% change, and EC2606 was 2394.1 with a -5.46% change [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of contracts on the previous day varied from 42 to 20444, and the open interest ranged from 467 to 16342, with changes in open interest from -1369 to -4 [2] - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of different contract combinations (e.g., EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605) showed different values and changes compared to previous days and weeks. For example, the EC2604 - 2606 spread was -721.2, with a day - on - day increase of 91.4 and a week - on - week decrease of 160.1 [2] Spot Market Information - **Spot Index Changes**: The TERMINAL index on March 30, 2026, was 1752.54 points, with a 3.50% increase from the previous period. The SCFI index on March 27, 2026, was 1703 dollars/TEU, with a 4.10% increase from the previous period [2] - **European Line Spot Situation**: The price increase in April failed. In Week 14, the average quotation was 2570 dollars, equivalent to 1800 points on the disk. In Week 15, Maersk's quotation was 2350 dollars (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week), and the average quotation of shipping companies was 2450 dollars, equivalent to 1715 points on the disk. In Week 16, Maersk's opening quotation was 2200/2300 dollars, and a 400 - dollar/FEU surcharge was implemented for long - term contracts [4] Relevant News - Trump said that the US would end the war in Iran in two to three weeks and would give a national speech on the Iran issue at 9 pm local time on the next day (9 am Beijing time on Thursday) [5] - The Iranian president was willing to end the war under the condition of obtaining guarantees [5]
4月合约等待4月下半月运价指引,远月合约面临地缘扰动
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 06:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The April contract is waiting for the freight rate guidance in the second half of April, and the far - month contracts are facing geopolitical disturbances [1] - The valuation of the main contract EC2604 is gradually becoming clear, but the high geopolitical risk may amplify its volatility. It is recommended that investors closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly [4] - The contracts for June, July, and August (relatively peak seasons) are expected to have relatively strong short - term trends, but the actual freight rates in the future months are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly [5][6] - The Houthi rebels' possible blockade of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait may drive up the prices of far - month contracts [7] - The recommended strategy is to go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes from different shipping companies for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes in different time periods are provided, including quotes from Gemini Cooperation, MSC + Premier Alliance, and Ocean Alliance [1] 3.2 Geopolitical Factors - Iran's parliament has passed a bill to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which may reach up to $2 million per tanker. The new plan also includes restrictions on ships related to the US, Israel, or countries that have imposed unilateral sanctions on Iran. The US does not support this toll - collection [2] 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Static Supply**: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU have been delivered in 2026. The delivery expectations for different ship sizes from 2026 - 2029 are provided. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while in 2027, 2028, and 2029, the annual delivery volume of 17,000 + TEU ships exceeds 40 [2][3] - **Dynamic Supply**: The weekly average capacity from China to European base ports in March, April, and May is provided, along with the capacity for specific weeks. There are also details about the number of TBNs and empty sailings in April and May [3] 3.4 Contract Analysis - **EC2604**: Maersk's freight rate in the second week of April has been lowered. The valuation of the contract is gradually clear, waiting for the guidance of Maersk's quotes in the second half of April. The PA alliance is facing greater cargo - booking pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the OA alliance will follow the price cut. The settlement price of the April contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on April 13th, 20th, and 27th [4] - **EC2606, EC2607, EC2608**: These contracts are expected to have relatively strong short - term trends due to the low probability of the Suez Canal's full - scale reopening in the first half of 2026, the relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of demand from Asia to Europe [5][6] 3.5 Market Data - As of March 30, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 38,953.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 41,514.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes on March 27th and 30th are also given [8]
主力合约估值逐步清晰,远月合约或仍面临情绪端扰动
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 05:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The valuation of the main contract EC2604 is gradually becoming clear, but the far - month contracts may still face emotional disturbances. The 6, 7, and 8 - month contracts in the peak season have strong expectations, but the actual freight rates are still uncertain. The blockade of the Mandeb Strait by the Houthi rebels may drive up the freight rates of far - month contracts [4][5][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes from different shipping companies for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes in different weeks and months are provided, including quotes from Gemini Cooperation, HPL, MSC + Premier Alliance, Ocean Alliance, etc. [1] 3.2 Geopolitical Situation - An Iranian military source said that Iran is monitoring the enemy's movements. If the enemy takes actions in Iranian territory or increases Iran's defense costs through maritime activities, Iran will respond. Iran has the ability to threaten the Mandeb Strait. [2] 3.3 Supply Situation - **Static Supply**: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU have been delivered in 2026. The delivery expectations for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU ships from 2026 to 2029 are provided. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small. [2][3] - **Dynamic Supply**: The weekly average capacity of China - European base ports from March to May is given. There are TBNs and empty flights in April and May. [3] 3.4 Contract Analysis - **Main Contract EC2604**: Maersk's freight rate in the second week of April decreased. The valuation of the April contract is gradually clear, but due to geopolitical risks, the volatility of the contract may be amplified. It is recommended that investors follow the spot market and operate flexibly. [4] - **Peak - season Contracts (6, 7, 8 months)**: The expectations for these contracts are strong. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of 2026, the relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of the Asian - European demand side. However, the actual freight rates are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly. [5][6] 3.5 Market Impact - The Houthi rebels' possible blockade of the Mandeb Strait may drive up the freight rates of far - month contracts. Since December 2023, the number of ships passing through the Aden Gulf has decreased significantly. [7] 3.6 Shipping Company News - On March 25, COSCO Shipping Lines resumed new booking business for ordinary containers to Middle - East Gulf countries. However, ships will not pass through the Hormuz Strait directly but will use land transfer after reaching ports on the east side of the strait. [7] 3.7 Market Data - As of March 25, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes is 38,261.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 35,860.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes are also given. [8] 3.8 Strategy - **Unilateral**: None - **Arbitrage**: Long EC2606 and short EC2610 [9]
永安期货集运早报-20260325
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 05:36
Group 1: Futures Market Data - EC2604 contract had a closing price of 1898.9, a decline of 2.99%, a basis of -342.4, a trading volume of 18908, an open interest of 15267, and a change in open interest of -2429 [2] - EC2605 contract had a closing price of 2178.2, a decline of 8.43%, a basis of -621.7, a trading volume of 1142, an open interest of 1569, and a change in open interest of -245 [2] - EC2606 contract had a closing price of 2439.2, a decline of 9.42%, a basis of -882.7, a trading volume of 11832, an open interest of 13405, and a change in open interest of -907 [2] - EC2607 contract had a closing price of 2567.0, a decline of 7.76%, a basis of -1010.5, a trading volume of 318, an open interest of 913, and a change in open interest of -79 [2] - EC2608 contract had a closing price of 2410.8, a decline of 5.98%, a basis of -854.3, a trading volume of 1175, an open interest of 2828, and a change in open interest of -117 [2] - EC2609 contract had a closing price of 1720.0, a decline of 6.29%, a basis of -163.5, a trading volume not provided, an open interest of 495, and a change in open interest of -7 [2] - EC2610 contract had a closing price of 1573.0, a decline of 4.55%, a basis of -16.5, a trading volume of 2309, an open interest of 7502, and a change in open interest of -15 [2] - EC2612 contract had a closing price of 1774.0, a decline of 2.26%, a basis of -217.5, a trading volume of 70, an open interest of 448, and a change in open interest of 10 [2] Group 2: Spread Data - The spread of EC2604 - 2606 was -540.3, with a day - on - day change of 195.2 and a week - on - week change of -103.6 [2] - The spread of EC2604 - 2605 was -279.3, with a day - on - day change of 142.1 and a week - on - week change of -231.7 [2] - The spread of EC2606 - 2610 was 866.2, with a day - on - day change of -178.7 and a week - on - week change of 49.6 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - The spot index (Oriental Line) updated weekly on Mondays, with a value of 1556.49 on March 16, 2026, a rise of 0.71% from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (Oriental Line) updated on Fridays, with a value of 1636 dollars/TEU on March 20, 2026, a rise of 1.11% from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis - The EC2604 contract is entering the delivery logic, with a contradiction between weak fundamentals and potential fuel cost increases; the EC2610 contract follows the cost - support logic, with high geopolitical risks. On Tuesday, both aspects of news were bearish, and the market is expected to be weak [3] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - In Week 13, MSK was flat at 2250 dollars, PA was reported at 2400 - 2500 dollars, and some voyages were at 2200 dollars (2000 dollars for large orders). The average spot price converted to the futures price was about 1700 - 1800 points. COSCO announced a price increase for the European Line in April to 5100 dollars, and CMA issued a price - increase letter for April at 3500 dollars [4] - In Week 14, MSK was reported at 2650 dollars (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous week) [4] - On Tuesday of Week 15, after the market closed, the price was reported at 2350 dollars (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week) [4] - In early April, ONE was reported at 2500 dollars, EMC at 3160 dollars, and OOCL at 3100 dollars [4] Group 6: Related News - On March 25, US media reported that the US had sent a 15 - point plan to Iran to end the Middle East war. The plan involved Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs and maritime shipping lanes. Pakistan's Army Chief Munir had become an important communication bridge between the US and Iran, and Egypt and Turkey encouraged Iran to engage constructively [5]
FICC日报:4月合约临近交割,关注马士基4月第二周开价-20260324
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 11:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2604 contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo - collection price changes. The freight rate of the European line may be affected by the increase in supply pressure caused by the transfer of Middle - East operating vessels to the European line. The subsequent game point is the actual demand in April under high capacity. The valuation of the April contract is gradually becoming clear, but the volatility of the EC2604 contract may be amplified due to geopolitical risks [4][5]. - The contracts for the relatively peak seasons of June, July, and August have strong expectations. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's reopening in the first half of the year, the relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of the monthly demand from Asia to Europe. However, the actual freight rates in the future are still unknown, and investors need to respond flexibly [6]. - The Houthi rebels' possible blockade of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait may drive up the prices of far - month contracts. Although the number of container ships passing through the Gulf of Aden has decreased significantly, the blockade will impact the global supply chain and drive up the freight rates of global shipping routes [7]. - The trading strategy is to go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610, and there is no unilateral strategy for now [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 23, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 46,216.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 63,634.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1957.40, 2378.80, 2692.90, 2783.00, 2564.00, 1835.40, 1648.00, and 1815.00 respectively [8]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On March 20, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1636 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2054 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2922 US dollars/FEU. On March 23, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1693.26 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1024.11 points [8]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. Among them, 6 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 86,000 TEU were delivered, and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a capacity of 17,148 TEU was delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, 679,000 TEU (46 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 2 weeks of March was 296,500 TEU. The capacities in Week 13 and Week 14 were 292,000 and 300,900 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April was 311,900 TEU, and the capacities in Week 15, Week 16, Week 17, and Week 18 were 337,000, 266,700, 306,300, and 337,400 TEU respectively. The average monthly capacity in May was 305,700 TEU, and the capacities in Week 19, Week 20, Week 21, and Week 22 were 338,600, 300,900, 289,700, and 293,900 TEU respectively. There were 3 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in April, and 6 TBNs in May [3]. 3.4 Supply Chain - The Houthi rebels in Yemen claim that they may block the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, which may drive up the far - month contracts. Since December 2023, the number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden has decreased significantly, from 80 per day to about 30 per day. The number of container ships passing through has decreased from more than 20 per day to about 5 per day, and the TEU has decreased from more than 200,000 TEU per day to about 50,000 TEU per day [7]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the monthly demand from Asia to Europe has been relatively high, with the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume in most months exceeding 10%. After the outbreak of the Israel - Iran conflict, new expectations have emerged for the peak - season contracts. Attention should be paid to whether developed countries in Europe and the United States will increase imports of domestic goods due to concerns about future inflation after the sharp increase in oil prices, which may drive up domestic export demand. At the same time, the expectation of a global economic recession caused by the excessive increase in oil prices should be guarded against [6].
格林大华期货早盘提示:集运欧线-20260324
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 08:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the container shipping industry is weak [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East situation is volatile, affecting the market. The release of information about a potential US - Iran agreement led to a significant drop in overnight crude oil prices, which is expected to cause short - term weakness in container shipping prices. Airlines' price quotes continue to vary, and the implementation of these quotes should be monitored. The market is highly volatile, making it difficult to participate, so short - term operations or waiting for opportunities while controlling risks are recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the container shipping European line EC2604 contract rose to 1957.4, a 3.0% increase. The far - month EC2606 contract once hit the daily limit [1] 3.2 Important Information - US President Trump said the US had "strong" talks with Iran and reached an agreement to suspend attacks on its energy facilities for 5 days. He is negotiating a broader agreement, and an agreement may be reached within 5 days or less. However, Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US, stating that Trump's remarks aim to lower energy prices and gain time for military operations [1] - Affected by Trump's remarks on US - Iran negotiations, global financial markets were in turmoil. US and Brent crude oil prices dropped by over 9%. The US Treasury bond yield turned from a sharp increase to a decrease, with the 2 - year US Treasury bond yield fluctuating by over 22 basis points. Precious metals rebounded, with COMEX silver closing down 0.49% (after dropping over 12% earlier) and COMEX gold down 3.6% (after dropping over 10% earlier) [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On March 23, the SCFIS reported 1693.26 points, an 8.8% increase from the previous period. The underlying spot index is still at a discount to the futures price [1] - On March 20, the SCFI European line freight rate was 1636 US dollars/TEU, a 1.1% increase [1] - The spot quotes: Maersk's wk14 large container price is 2600 US dollars and high - cube container is 2700 US dollars, an increase of 400 US dollars; CMA CGM announced an increase of large container price to 3500 US dollars, slightly higher than the written - announced 3100 US dollars in late March. The market is cautious about the price increase in early April. The PA Alliance's quotes should be focused on to see if they continue the low - price strategy [1] - According to Aphaliner's latest data, as of March 23, 2026, the total number of global operating container ships increased to 7,521, with a total global operating capacity of 33,924.968 TEU and a total operating ship tonnage of 402,768,003 tons. As of the week of March 23, the trans - Atlantic capacity was 169,459 TEU, the trans - Pacific capacity was 538,820 TEU, and the Far East - Europe capacity was 524,271 TEU [1] - On March 20, the container shipping index for the Far East - Northern Europe route closed at 2679 US dollars/FEU, a 1.13% (or 30 US dollars/FEU) increase from the previous value. The Far East - US West Coast route closed at 2057 US dollars/FEU, unchanged from the previous value [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the repeated Middle East situation and the significant drop in overnight crude oil prices, container shipping prices are expected to be short - term weak. Airlines' price quotes are still different, and their implementation should be monitored. The market is highly volatile, so short - term operations or waiting for opportunities while controlling risks are recommended [1]
集运早报-20260324
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 02:01
Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The EC2604 contract is gradually entering the delivery logic, with a neutral current valuation. The future mainly lies in the contradiction between the cargo - collection and price - adjustment situation of the European line itself and the change in fuel costs. The EC2610 contract follows the cost - support logic, and fuel costs continuously affect its valuation. Geopolitical risks are significant, and TACO news may make it difficult for the short - term market to continue rising. A significant decline requires a clearer signal of geopolitical relaxation. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to repair the basis for the EC2604 contract [3] Summary by Relevant Categories Futures Contract Information - **Contract Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, etc. are 1957.4, 2378.8, 2692.9 respectively, with increases of 0.69%, 8.57%, 11.17% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also vary, such as the trading volume of EC2604 being 36453 and the open interest being 17696 with a change of - 74 [2] - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, EC2606 - 2610 are - 735.5, - 421.4, 1044.9 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 257.2, - 174.3, 192.4 respectively and week - on - week changes of - 287.0, - 236.4, 171.9 respectively [2] Spot Situation - **Week 13**: MSK's price is flat at $2250, PA quotes range from $2400 - 2500, and some voyages are at $2200 (large - volume orders at $2000). The average spot price converted to the futures contract is about 1700 - 1800 points. COSCO announces a price increase for the European line in April to $5100, and CMA issues a price - increase letter for April with a target of $3500 [4] - **Week 14**: MSK quotes at $2650 (a $400 increase from the previous week). YML releases the freight rate for the first half of April at $2750. The PA Alliance's FE4 maiden voyage (April 11) quotes at $2200 [4] Spot Index - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated on March 20, 2026, the price is $1636 per TEU, with a 1.11% increase from the previous period and an 11.43% increase in the previous period [2] News - On March 24, Iranian media reported that the US and Israel attacked two Iranian energy infrastructure facilities. The Trump administration is secretly evaluating the possibility of taking Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf as a potential partner and even a future Iranian leader. Iranian - US relations are complex, with information being transmitted through Egypt and Turkey to ease tensions, but the US has not accepted Iran's two core conditions. The issue of closing the Strait of Hormuz and laying mines is still in Iran's potential action options [5]
集运早报-20260320
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 01:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. The EC2604 contract is gradually entering the delivery logic, and it is necessary to observe whether there are opportunities for basis repair. Although historically, the 6 - 7 and 6 - 8 reverse spreads have appropriate valuations, it still depends on the duration of the geopolitical situation [2] 3. Detailed Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Futures Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2604 closed at 1915.0 with a 0.51% increase, EC2605 at 2168.0 with a 1.45% increase, EC2606 at 2386.2 with a 1.89% increase, EC2607 at 2530.0 with a 2.22% increase, EC2608 at 2366.0 with a 2.16% increase, EC2609 at 1712.0 with a 1.10% increase, EC2610 at 1561.6 with a 2.37% increase, and EC2612 at 1742.8 with a 1.40% increase [2] - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of EC2604 decreased by 1272, EC2605 decreased by 3, EC2606 decreased by 95, EC2607 increased by 36, EC2608 decreased by 30, EC2609 decreased by 14, EC2610 decreased by 175, and EC2612 increased by 3 [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2604 - 2606 was - 471.2, with a daily decrease of 34.5 and a weekly decrease of 1.3; the spread of EC2604 - 2605 was - 253, with a daily decrease of 21.3 and a weekly decrease of 245.4; the spread of EC2606 - 2610 was 824.6, with a daily increase of 8.0 and a weekly decrease of 34.4 [2] Spot Information - **SCFIS and SCFI**: The SCFIS (European line) index on March 9, 2026, was 1545.46 points, with a 5.61% increase from the previous period; the SCFI (European line) on March 13, 2026, was 1618 dollars/TEU, with an 11.43% increase from the previous period [2] - **European Line Spot Quotes**: In Week 12, the average spot price was 2450 dollars, equivalent to about 1715 points on the futures market. In Week 13, the average spot price was equivalent to about 1700 - 1800 points on the futures market. COSCO announced a price increase for the European line in April to 5100 dollars, and CMA announced a price increase to 3500 dollars [2][3] News - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel would suspend attacks on Iran's main gas fields, but still sought "regime change" in Iran and hinted at a possible ground operation. He also said that the war would end faster than expected [4]
集运早报-20260313
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-13 03:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current 04 contract corresponds to a freight rate of $2885, with a basis of -$300, which has priced in short - term risk premiums mainly due to rising fuel costs, and the valuation is relatively reasonable. Shipping companies may issue price increase notices for April. Due to the repeated geopolitical sentiment, the short - term market is expected to remain strong but with large fluctuations. A 6 - 7 reverse spread can be arranged, but attention should be paid to the poor liquidity of the 07 contract [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 2020.1, up 1.38%, with a basis of -474.6, trading volume of 61827, and open interest of 27408 with a change of -1194 [2] - EC2605: Yesterday's closing price was 2206.4, up 7.63%, with a basis of -660.9, trading volume of 2824, and open interest of 2247 with a change of 24 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 2436.9, up 4.61%, with a basis of -891.4, trading volume of 18920, and open interest of 14972 with a change of -643 [2] - EC2607: Yesterday's closing price was 2506.0, up 2.92%, with a basis of -960.5, trading volume of 496, and open interest of 806 with a change of 1 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 2379.0, up 3.64%, with a basis of -833.5, trading volume of 2043, and open interest of 3138 with a change of 6 [2] - EC2609: Yesterday's closing price was 1760.0, up 4.51%, with a basis of -214.5, trading volume of 254, and open interest of ୧୦୫ with a change of 26 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1580.4, up 2.89%, with a basis of -34.9, trading volume of 2339, and open interest of 8688 with a change of -456 [2] - EC2612: Yesterday's closing price was 1875.0, up 1.99%, with a basis of -329.5, trading volume of 162, and open interest of 403 with a change of 17 [2] Month - spread Information - EC2604 - 2606: The previous day's value was -416.8, with a daily change of -80.1 and a weekly change of -147.6 [2] - EC2604 - 2605: The previous day's value was -186.3, with a daily change of -129.0 and a weekly change of -0.2 [2] - EC2606 - 2610: The previous day's value was 856.5, with a daily change of 63.1 and a weekly change of 154.1 [2] Spot Index Information - Spot (European Line): On March 9, 2026, the value was 1545.46 points, up 5.61% from the previous period [2] - SCFI (European Line): On March 6, 2026, it was $1452/TEU, up 2.25% from the previous period [2] European Line Spot Situation - ONE adjusted prices. Week 12 was reported at $2400 (equivalent to 1680 points on the disk), and week 13 was $2700 (equivalent to 1890 points on the disk). YML's week 13 price was adjusted to $2700 due to rising fuel costs. The expected trading center in the second half of the month is $2400, and the FAK quote (the part included in the index) is expected to be around $2600, equivalent to 1820 points on the disk [3] Related News - CMA CGM reopened all import bookings to Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE [4]
集运早报-20260312
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 01:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Ship companies may issue price increase letters for April recently. The current 04 contract corresponds to a freight rate of $2800, with a basis of -$300, which has already priced in short-term risk premiums, mainly due to a rise in fuel costs (around +$300), and the valuation is relatively reasonable. Geopolitical sentiment is fluctuating. It is expected that the short-term market will remain strong and volatile. The fundamental contradiction of the peak-season contracts lies in geopolitics, and it may be too early for left-side trading with large upward potential [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1992.7, up 7.78%, with a basis of -447.2, a trading volume of 66207, an open interest of 28602, and an open interest change of 797 [2] - EC2605: Yesterday's closing price was 2050.0, up 7.44%, with a basis of -504.5, a trading volume of 3113, an open interest of 2223, and an open interest change of 336 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 2329.4, up 7.35%, with a basis of -783.9, a trading volume of 16645, an open interest of 15615, and an open interest change of 168 [2] - EC2607: Yesterday's closing price was 2434.9, up 6.90%, with a basis of -889.4, a trading volume of 490, an open interest of 802, and an open interest change of 81 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 2295.5, up 6.39%, with a basis of -750.0, a trading volume of 1655, an open interest of 3132, and an open interest change of 253 [2] - EC2609: Yesterday's closing price was 1684.1, up 6.11%, with a basis of -138.6, a trading volume of 268, an open interest of 582, and an open interest change of 51 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1536.0, up 5.26%, a trading volume of 4582, an open interest of 9144, and an open interest change of -402 [2] - EC2612: Yesterday's closing price was 1838.5, up 3.12%, with a basis of -293.0, a trading volume of 171, an open interest of 386, and an open interest change of -36 [2] Month Spread Information - EC2604 - 2606: The previous day's spread was -336.7, with a daily change of -15.6 and a weekly change of -154.6 [2] - EC2604 - 2605: The previous day's spread was -57.3, with a daily change of 1.8 and a weekly change of -37.0 [2] - EC2606 - 2610: The previous day's spread was 793.4, with a daily change of 82.6 and a weekly change of 238.2 [2] Spot Index Information - Spot (European Line): Updated every Monday, as of March 9, 2026, the index was 1545.46 points, up 5.61% from the previous period [2] - SCFI (European Line): Updated on Friday, as of March 6, 2026, the price was $1452/TEU, up 2.25% from the previous period [2] European Line Spot Situation - Yesterday, major shipping companies issued emergency fuel surcharges for long-term contracts. There are rumors that HMM offered a special price of $1800 [3] - In the second half of March, the expected trading center is $2300, but the FAK quote (the part included in the index) is expected to be around $2500, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures market [3] Related News - ONE and MSC added emergency fuel surcharges of $320 and $300 respectively [4] - Three ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, and one oil tanker and one VLGC passed through yesterday [4]