中美关税问题仍以延期的形式作为短期的解决方案，运价走势的逻辑 还是回归传统季节性和红海何时复航的问题上，目前现货价格小幅下 降。综上述,我们认为,关税问题已经呈现边际化效应,目前核心还 是现货运价的走向，主力合约已经出现季节性反弹，建议轻仓参与或 观望。 2025年11月24日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 现货价格短期见顶，盘面连续回落，盘面回撤至区间可尝试补仓，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 11月17日 | 11月21日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1357.67点，较上期下跌9.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）946.44点，较上期下跌5.33% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1238.42 点，较上期下跌6.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 951.65点，较上期下跌2.83% | | 11月21日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）955.93点，较上期下跌9.17% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1393.56点，较上期 ...

2025年11月21日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 现货价格短期见顶，盘面连续回落，符合目报预期，已建议部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 11月17日 | 11月14日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1357.67点，较上期下跌9.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）999.69点，较上期下跌5.12% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1238.42 点，较上期下跌6.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 979.34点，较上期上涨7.42% | | 11月14日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1052.43点，较上期下跌21.99% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1451.38点，较上期下跌43.72点， | 11月14日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1417USD/TEU，较上期上涨7.1% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1094.03点，较上期上涨3.4% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCF ...

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2512 | | 1775.7 | 0.70% | -418.0 | 4067 | | 8060 | -1508 | | | EC2602 | | 1631.0 | -0.55% | -273.3 | 32775 | | 42029 | 1785 | | | EC2604 | | 1163.0 | 0.03% | 194.7 | 3097 | | 16014 | 70 | | | EC2606 | | 1381.1 | -0.07% | -23.4 | 218 | | 1575 | -7 | | | EC2608 | | 1505.0 | 1.00% | -147.3 | 92 | | 1224 | 12 | | | EC2610 | | 1109.0 | -0.09% ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货11月19日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2512 | 1,771.1 | 1,750.0 | 1,763.3 | 1,768.7 | -7.8 | - ...

2025年11月20日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) 现货运价不及宣涨，压制盘面持续下探，符合日报预期，可考虑部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 11月14日 11月17日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 999.69点, 较上期下跌5.12% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1357.67点, 较上期下跌9.8% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线) 979.34点, 较上期上涨7.42% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1238.42 点, 较上期下跌6.9% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1052.43点, 较上期下跌21.99% 11月14日 11月14日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1451.38点,较上期下跌43.72点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1094.03点,较上期上涨3.4% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1417USD/TEU,较上期上涨7.1% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(欧洲航线) 1403.64点,较上期上涨2.7% 上海出口集装箱运价指数S ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are lower than the announced increase, suppressing the market to decline, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2] - The impact of the tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates [2] Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - From November 14th to 17th, the NCFI (comprehensive index) dropped 5.12% to 999.69 points, the SCFIS (European route) decreased 9.8% to 1357.67 points, the NCFI (European route) rose 7.42% to 979.34 points, the SCFIS (US - West route) fell 6.9% to 1238.42 points, and the NCFI (US - West route) dropped 21.99% to 1052.43 points [1] - From November 14th, the SCFI published price dropped 43.72 points to 1451.38 points, the CCFI (comprehensive index) rose 3.4% to 1094.03 points, the SCFI European route price rose 7.1% to 1417 USD/TEU, the CCFI (European route) rose 2.7% to 1403.64 points, the SCFI US - West route dropped 17.59% to 1823 USD/FEU, and the CCFI (US - West route) rose 3.9% to 846.24 points [1] Economic Data - In the Eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the services PMI initial value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), the composite PMI initial value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6), and the Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 (previous value, forecast - 8.5) [1] - In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] - In the US in October, the S&P Global services PMI initial value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI initial value was 52.2 (expected 52), and the composite PMI initial value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [2] Market Conditions - On November 19th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1640.1, with a decline of 2.66%, a trading volume of 18,700 lots, and an open interest of 40,200 lots, an increase of 1384 lots from the previous day [2] - Bearish sentiment persists, and the overall market is under pressure due to spot freight rates being lower than the expected announced increase [2] Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to spot trends, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or lightly try due to large fluctuations in each contract [3] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [3] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market on Wednesday showed a weak and fluctuating trend. Under the pressure of high capacity in December and January, short - sellers were actively trading, and the peak - season price increase was limited [2]. - The valuation of the 12 - contract is neutral and will gradually follow the delivery logic, with a significant decrease in open interest. The 02 - contract is expected to mainly follow the spot price in the short term. Before the peak season in December is realized, it's hard for the market to believe January is still a peak season. However, considering the late Chinese New Year this year and the good overall volume of China - Europe shipping, it's difficult to prove or disprove the non - peak season in the short term. If the peak season is gradually realized later, the 02 - contract may have more upside potential. The 04 - contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies and is more likely to fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2512 contract closed at 1763.3, down 0.35% with a basis of - 405.6; the EC2602 contract closed at 1640.1, down 2.26% with a basis of - 282.4; the EC2604 contract closed at 1162.7, down 1.43% with a basis of 195.0; the EC2606 contract closed at 1382.0, down 0.22% with a basis of - 24.3; the EC2608 contract closed at 1490.1, down 1.29% with a basis of - 132.4; the EC2610 contract closed at 1110.0, down 0.18% with a basis of 247.7 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2512 was 2452, and the open interest was 9568, a decrease of 864; the trading volume of EC2602 was 18687, and the open interest was 40244, an increase of 1384; the trading volume of EC2604 was 2358, and the open interest was 15944, a decrease of 201; the trading volume of EC2606 was 92, and the open interest was 1582, a decrease of 3; the trading volume of EC2608 was 118, and the open interest was 1212, an increase of 51; the trading volume of EC2610 was 264, and the open interest was 2520 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 600.6, with a daily increase of 10.7 and a weekly increase of 42.3; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was 123.2, with a daily increase of 31.8 and a weekly increase of 67.6; the EC2502 - 2604 spread was 477.4, with a daily decrease of 21.1 and a weekly decrease of 25.3 [2]. Spot Market - **Indices and Changes**: The SCHIS index (updated every Monday) was 1357.67 on November 17, 2025, down 9.78% from the previous period; the SCFI (European line, updated weekly) was 1417 dollars/TEU on November 14, 2025, up 7.11% from the previous period; the CCFI was 1403.64 points on November 14, 2025, up 2.69% from the previous period; the NCFI was 979.34 on November 14, 2025, up 7.42% from the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotations - **Week 48**: Currently, MSK's opening price is 2000 dollars, PA mainly follows the previous price, and OA has not adjusted the price. The average price is 2230 dollars (equivalent to about 1560 points on the futures market). MSK and MSC have issued price - increase letters for December, and other shipping companies may follow this week [4]. - **Week 49**: On Tuesday, MSK opened at 2500 dollars for the first week of December, in line with expectations. On Wednesday, MSC reduced the price to 2465 dollars, and HMM reduced the price to 2506 dollars [5]. Related News - The White House is about to announce a major new peace agreement with Russia, which is expected to end the three - and - a - half - year Russia - Ukraine conflict. An agreement framework is expected to be reached by the end of this month, or even "as soon as this week" [6].

2025年11月19日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) SCFIS持续下行，压制盘面持续下探，符合日报预期，可考虑部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1357.67点, 较上期下跌9.8% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1238.42 点, 较上期下跌6.9% 11月14日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1451.38点,较上期下跌43.72点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1417USD/TEU,较上期上涨7.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1823USD/FEU,较上期上下跌17.59% 11月14日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 999.69点, 较上期下跌5.12% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 979.34点, 较上期上涨7.42% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1052.43点, 较上期下跌21.99% 11月14日 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1094.03点,较上期上涨3.4% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1403.6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Tuesday trading session saw the market give back some of the gains from Monday. The valuation of the EC2512 contract is considered neutral, and it will gradually follow the delivery logic, with a significant decrease in open interest. The EC2602 contract is expected to mainly track the spot market. Before the peak season in December is realized, the market is less likely to believe that January will also be a peak season. The high point of freight rates usually occurs 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year). If the peak season is gradually realized, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential. The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be approached with a short - selling strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of various EC futures contracts on November 19, 2025, showed declines. For example, EC2512 closed at 1769.5, down 1.27% (-411.8); EC2602 closed at 1678.1, down 2.78% (-320.4); etc. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for EC2610, which had an increase of 51 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of different contract combinations also changed. For instance, EC2512 - 2504 spread was 580.0, with a day - on - day decrease of 14.7 and a week - on - week decrease of 22.2; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 91.4, with a day - on - day increase of 25.1 and a week - on - week decrease of 81.9 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Indices**: The SCHIS index on November 17, 2025, was 1357.67 points, down 9.78% from the previous period. The SCF (European line) on November 14, 2025, was 1417 dollars/EU, up 7.1% from the previous period. The CCFI was 1403.64 points, up 2.69% from the previous period, and the NCFI was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period [2]. - **European Line Quotations**: Shipowners previously announced price increases of 2365 - 2950 dollars for the second half of November. In Week 47, the offline PA was around 1900 - 2100, OA and Gemini were at 2200 - 2400, with an average of 2260 dollars (equivalent to about 1580 points on the futures market). In Week 48, the average was 2230 dollars (equivalent to about 1560 points on the futures market). MSK and MSC have issued price increase notices for December, and MSK opened at 2500 dollars for the first week of December, which was in line with expectations [4]. 3.3 Related News - Hamas stated that it is legitimate to resist Israel by all means and refused to disarm. The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution on Gaza, which was welcomed by the State of Palestine. The resolution aims to establish a permanent and comprehensive cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, ensure unimpeded access and distribution of humanitarian aid, and reaffirm the right of the Palestinian people to self - determination and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state [5].

2025年11月18日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 02合约高开高走,盘面整体偏强震荡,符合日报预期,可考虑部分止盈,关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 11月17日 | 11月14日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1357.67点，较上期下跌9.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）999.69点，较上期下跌5.12% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1238.42 点，较上期下跌6.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 979.34点，较上期上涨7.42% | | 11月14日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1052.43点，较上期下跌21.99% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1451.38点，较上期下跌43.72点， | 11月14日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1417USD/TEU，较上期上涨7.1% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1094.03点，较上期上涨3.4% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数S ...