| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2604 | | 1236.0 | -3.33% | 337.5 | 28825 | | 36174 | 819 | | | EC2605 | | 1414.8 | -1.41% | 158.7 | 178 | | 3ેરે | 44 | | | EC2606 | | 1621.1 | -2.28% | -47.6 | 5854 | | 16649 | 287 | | | EC2607 | | 1812.0 | -0.92% | -238.5 | 41 | | 225 | 18 | | | EC2608 | | 1715.0 | -0.88% | -141.5 | 384 | | 1381 | 44 | | | EC2609 | | 1325.0 | 0.23% | 248.5 | ଚ | ...

2月25日，集运指数(欧线)期货大幅下跌，截至发稿主力合约报1285.6点，跌幅达4.24%。 【消息面汇总】 2月3日，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服务的航行路线，重新经由红海及苏伊士运河运输。然而本应首次实现复航红海 的"Maersk Detroit"号，在实际执行中转向南下绕行非洲好望角。 特朗普签署行政命令，自美国东部时间2月24日起，对进口到美国的商品征收10%的从价进口关税，为期150天；后续又在其社交平台"真实社 交"上发文称，将把对全球商品加征10%进口关税的税率水平提高至15%，抬升贸易成本。 国内集运现货运价方面，周一SCFIS欧线指数为1573.51点，周环比下跌2.10%，而春节期间双周累计下跌5.09%，船司空班停航使得运价整体跌幅 相对温和。 机构观点 申银万国期货：强预期推动市场放量上涨，IEEPA关税被最高法院裁定违法，美国海关正式官宣最新122关税税率10%，短期出现关税差额空档 期，对于集运市场来说，可能会导致亚美航线出口货量的激增，同时叠加市场对于3月节后光伏等产品抢出口存有相对乐观预期，航线联动效应叠 加可能高于往年季节性的货量表现带动节后预期乐观。与 ...

EEEEA | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2604 | | 1320.6 | 4.90% | 252.9 | 20698 | | 34505 | | | | EC2605 | | 1479.0 | 13.42% | 94.5 | 296 | | 310 | 3484 116 | | | EC2606 | | 1691.6 | 8.01% | -118.1 | 8328 | | 15857 | 2470 | | | EC2607 | | 1854.0 | 6.37% | -280.5 | ਰੇਤੋ | | 199 | 67 | | | EC2608 | | 1741.8 | 6.73% | -168.3 | 1101 | | 1337 | -65 | | | EC2609 | | 1315.0 | 6.64% | 258 ...

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਨ EC2604 | | 昨日收盘价 1269.8 | 涨跌 0.87% | 基差 303.7 | 昨日成交量 25064 | | 昨日持仓昼 25845 | 持仓变动 -5176 | | | EC2605 EC2606 | | 1337.0 1636.0 | 2 53% 4.46% | 236.5 -62.5 | 74 5648 | | 188 13960 | -6 573 | | | EC2607 | | 1806.0 | 3.61% | -232.5 | 131 | | 185 | FB | | | EC2608 | | 1694.0 | 3.80% | -120.5 | 957 | | 1402 | O | | | EC2609 | | 1245.0 | 0.97% | 328.5 | 10 | | 134 | 1 | | 期货 | EC2610 | | 1137.2 | 0.54% | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of the 04 contract is neutral. In the medium term, the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [3]. - For far - month contracts, it's difficult to anchor the valuation of peak - season contracts, and it's hard to predict shipping companies' price - adjustment behavior. So, cautious operation is advised. The 10 - contract valuation is moderately high, and the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained [3]. - For new contracts, referring to historical seasonality and the valuation of old contracts, the reasonable valuation ranges of the 09 and 07 contracts are 1100 - 1300 and 1600 - 1800 points respectively. The subsequent strategy is mainly to short the 09 contract and long the 07 contract, but the valuation given by the market is already relatively reasonable. The 05 contract is at the off - peak to peak season transition point, and attention should be paid to the 4 - 5 reverse spread form [3]. - Before the Spring Festival holiday, frequent position - closing operations by funds are expected to cause large market fluctuations. Prudent operation is advised this week [3]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2604 closed at 1179.0 with a - 4.77% change, EC2605 at 1273.0, EC2606 at 1499.8 with a - 3.43% change, EC2608 at 1576.3 with a - 2.38% change, EC2610 at 1110.9 with a - 1.35% change, and EC2612 at 1380.0 with a - 3.19% change [2]. - The trading volume of EC2604 and EC2605 combined was 29560, and the open interest was 33899 with a change of 2767. The trading volume of EC2606 was 4155, and the open interest was 14740 with a change of 14. The trading volume of EC2608 was 340, and the open interest was 1416 with a change of 2. The trading volume of EC2610 was 1093, and the open interest was 8071 with a change of 178. The trading volume of EC2612 was 38, and the open interest was 127 with a change of - 11 [2]. - The month - spread of EC2604 - 2606 was - 320.8 (day - on - day change: - 5.8, week - on - week change: - 34.4), and the month - spread of EC2606 - 2610 was 388.9 (day - on - day change: - 38.0, week - on - week change: 5.8) [2]. Spot Market Information - The spot price (European line) on 2026/2/9 was 1657.94 points, a - 7.49% change from the previous period [2]. - The SCFI (European line) on 2026/2/6 was 1403 dollars/TEU, a - 1.06% change from the previous period [2]. - In Week 7, MSK's opening price was 1950 dollars (a decrease of 100 dollars compared to the previous period), PA was around 2000 dollars, MSC was 2140 dollars, OA was 2300 dollars. The central price was 2130 dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. In Week 8 - 9, MSK's opening price remained at 1950 dollars. In March, MSC led a price - increase notice, followed by CMA, COSCO, and HPL, with the European line price expected to rise to 3000 - 3100 dollars. On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for Week 10 remained at 1950 dollars [4]. Related News - On February 10, Israel's Defense Forces were formulating a plan to launch a new offensive in the Gaza Strip to disarm Hamas [5]. - On February 11, the US military in Qatar loaded missiles onto mobile platforms. Since January, as the tension between the US and Iran escalated, the US military at the Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar loaded missiles onto mobile launch platforms this month [5].

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 11 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 每日报告 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货2月10日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2604 | 1,235.4 | 1,249.0 | 1,179.0 | 1,194.9 | -56.4 | -4.57 | 29560 | 33899 | 2767 ...

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基岩 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1739.9 | -0.18% | 52.2 | 223 | | 1429 | -173 | | | EC2604 | | 1231.2 | -2.92% | 560.9 | 29451 | | 31427 | -3234 | | | EC2606 | | 1531.0 | -2.37% | 261.1 | 4900 | | 14812 | -76 | | | EC2608 | | 1613.2 | -1.06% | 178.9 | 482 | | 1387 | -13 | | | EC2610 | | 1119.0 | -1.13% | 673.1 | 1114 | | 7878 | -272 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 即树目 | 前三日 | 日环比 | | ...

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1737.8 | 0.00% | 54.3 | 97 | | 1826 | - 57 | | | EC2604 | | 1247.6 | 0.78% | 544.5 | 24199 | | 32761 | -1468 | | | EC2606 | | 1534.0 | 0.02% | 258.1 | 3370 | | 14222 | 764 | | | EC2608 | | 1604.6 | 0.42% | 187.5 | 396 | | 1494 | ાર | | | EC2610 | | 1135.7 | 0.63% | 656.4 | 1963 | | 8185 | 508 | | | Ｆ菱 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 日环比 | | | 周环比 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated February 2, 2026 [2] Group 2: Contract Data Contract Price and Volume - EC2602: Yesterday's close was 1716.7, down 0.05%, with a basis of 142.6, volume of 453, and open interest of 2551, down 261 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's close was 1227.0, down 1.82%, with a basis of 632.3, volume of 25237, and open interest of 35881, down 3788 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's close was 1542.8, down 2.11%, with a basis of 316.5, volume of 5606, and open interest of 12303, up 997 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's close was 1607.0, down 2.33%, with a basis of 252.3, volume of 694, and open interest of 1594, down 72 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's close was 1122.5, down 2.49%, with a basis of 736.8, volume of 2674, and open interest of 8134, down 799 [2] Month - Spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's spread was 489.7, with a daily increase of 21.9 and a weekly decrease of 36.8 [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's spread was - 315.8, with a daily increase of 10.5 and a weekly decrease of 68.4 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - The spot (European Line) "ટરનાટ" index on January 26, 2026 was 1859.31 points, down 4.86% from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on January 30, 2026 was $1418/TEU, down 11.10% from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis and Recommendations Short - Term Market - Geopolitical tensions, stable Maersk February quotes, and expected March rush shipments may prevent short - term price drops [3] Near - Month Contracts - For the 04 contract, shorting should be done with caution. Watch for significant premiums. Pay attention to PA Alliance quotes and geopolitical situations [3] Far - Month Contracts - Short the 10 contract on rallies, based on the logic of off - season and tax - refund negatives. The valuations of 06 and 08 are hard to determine, and they will fluctuate widely within a reasonable range. Operate with caution under geopolitical uncertainties [3] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - Downstream is booking February 2 (Week 6 - 7) cabins. Ships are receiving good cargo, but the pressure to attract cargo is increasing, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships during the Spring Festival [4] - The price center in Week 7 is $2140, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures. Maersk's Week 8 - 9 quotes are $1950 (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies are also keeping their quotes unchanged for now [4] Group 6: News and Geopolitical Situation Military Exercise News - On February 1, Iranian officials said media reports about an Iranian Revolutionary Guard military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz were false, and no official statement had been issued [5] Diplomatic Negotiation News - On February 2, the US signaled a willingness to negotiate with Iran, and a meeting may be held in Turkey. However, experts believe that although both sides have a willingness to negotiate, there are serious differences, and the negotiation prospects are difficult [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to recent geopolitical tensions, Maersk's stable February quotes, and potential cargo rush and price support in March, the market may be difficult to decline in the short - term. The current valuation is moderately high, and the upside potential depends on capital behavior. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies, with a focus on the far - month contract 2610, which is more affected by the off - season and policies. Caution should be exercised for the 2604 contract, unless there is significant premium in the market. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and PA alliance quotes [3] - The export tax rebate adjustment policy is negative for contracts after April. However, the valuations of the 06 and 08 contracts are hard to determine, are currently within a reasonable range, and are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Prudent operation is advised [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2602 closed at 1719.0 with a 0.09% increase; EC2604 at 1229.0 with a 2.94% increase; EC2606 at 1493.2 with a 3.54% increase; EC2608 at 1560.8 with a 2.12% increase; EC2610 at 1135.1 with a 2.08% increase [2] - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of EC2602 decreased by 309 to 3186; EC2604 increased by 1499 to 40146; EC2606 increased by 1690 to 9602; EC2608 increased by 67 to 1549; EC2610 increased by 211 to 8722 [2] - **Month - Spread Changes**: The month - spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 490.0, a day - on - day decrease of 63.6 and a week - on - week decrease of 79.9; EC2504 - 2606 was - 264.2, a day - on - day decrease of 15.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 [2] Spot Market Information - **SCFIS and SCF Indexes**: The SCFIS (European Line) index on January 26, 2026, was 1859.31 points, a 4.86% decrease from the previous period. The SCF (European Line) was 1595 dollars/TEU on January 23, 2026, a 4.85% decrease from the previous period [2] - **Shipping Company Quotes**: In Week 5, the central quote was 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures. In Week 6, the central quote was equivalent to 1580 points on the futures. MSK's February Week 7 - 9 quote was 1950 dollars, lower than market expectations [4] Related News - Hamas senior official Musa Abu Marzouk stated that Hamas has never agreed to hand over its weapons in any form, and any arrangement for Gaza must be reached through an agreement with Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has no right to boast about the release of Israeli hostages [5] - After the initial nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran failed to make progress, US President Trump is considering a new major strike against Iran. Options under consideration include air strikes on Iranian leaders and security officials, as well as attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and government institutions [5]