远月来看，建议仍以逢高空10为主，主要基于淡季与退税利空逻辑。06和08估值难描定，合理范围内宽幅震荡，地缘犹动下建议谨慎操作。 欧线现货情况: 本周下游正预定2月初（week6-7）的舱位。当下船舶整体收货情况良好，但揽货压力有所增加，且船公司需要为春节假期发出船舶进行揽货, Week7价格中枢2140美金, 折盘面1500点。Week8-9MSK开舱1950美金（环比持平）, 其它船司报价暂时也以沿用为主。 相关新闻 2/1 据路透社：伊朗官员表示，有关伊朗革命卫队计划在霍尔木兹海峡举行军事演习的媒体报道是错误的。革命卫队尚未就霍尔木兹海峡军演事 消息面 宜发布官方声明。 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1716.7 | -0.05% | 142.6 | 453 | | 2551 | -261 | | ...

集运皇报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | বিরু | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓星 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1719.0 | 0.09% | 140.3 | 370 | | 3186 | -309 | | | EC2604 | | 1229.0 | 2.94% | 630.3 | 38983 | | 40146 | 1499 | | | EC2606 | | 1493.2 | 3.54% | 366.1 | 4954 | | 9602 | 1690 | | | EC2608 | | 1560.8 | 2.12% | 298.5 | 577 | | 1549 | 67 | | | EC2610 | | 1135.1 | 2.08% | 724.2 | 1747 | | 8722 | 211 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前内日 | 前三日 | 日环比 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For the 02 contract, it is gradually following the delivery logic, and its subsequent performance will be affected by the spot market. With a neutral valuation currently, it is not recommended to enter the market. [3] - For the 04 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. The expected decline in Week 5 when MSK opens bookings may suppress the futures market, but as freight rates fall, the scale of rush - shipping may increase, potentially weakening the downward slope in March. Its valuation fluctuates within a reasonable range, and it is advisable to watch for possible corrective market trends. [3] - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for far - month contracts. However, far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Overall, it is still recommended to focus on shorting the 10 - contract on rallies. [3] Summary by Related Content Market Data of Contracts - EC2602 closed at 1719.0 with a 0.06% increase, trading volume of 2673, and an open interest of 8878 with a decrease of 1583. [2] - EC2604 closed at 1202.7 with a 2.26% decrease, trading volume of 40524, and an open interest of 40832 with an increase of 788. [2] - EC2606 closed at 1421.8 with a 0.16% decrease, trading volume of 2189, and an open interest of 3048 with a decrease of 82. [2] - EC2608 closed at 1524.9 with a 0.50% decrease, trading volume of 153, and an open interest of 1321 with an increase of 15. [2] - EC2610 closed at 1111.0 with a 0.63% decrease, trading volume of 1331, and an open interest of 7581 with a decrease of 44. [2] - The spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 516.3, with a day - on - day increase of 28.8 and a week - on - week decrease of 69.0. [2] - The spread of EC2504 - 2606 was - 219.1, with a day - on - day decrease of 25.5 and a week - on - week increase of 62.2. [2] Index Data - The SCFIS (European Line) index on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39 points, with an 8.94% increase from the previous period and a 3.05% increase in the previous period. [2] - The SCFI (European Line) index on January 9, 2026, was 1719 dollars/TEU, with a 1.72% increase from the previous available data. [2] News and Market Conditions - On January 15, Hamas officials stated they were ready to transfer the administrative power of the Gaza Strip to a technical - bureaucrat committee. [4] - On January 15, Maersk announced the resumption of the Suez Canal route for its MECL service due to improved stability in the Red Sea. [4] Shipping Company Quotations - In Week 3, MSK's booking price was 2600 dollars, other alliances had small declines, with a central price of 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market. [7] - In Week 4, MSK's booking price was 2700 dollars, other alliances remained stable, with a central price of 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market. [7] - In Week 5, MSK's booking price was 2400 dollars (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week), PA was 2200 dollars, MSC was 2600 dollars, OA was 2700 dollars. The overall central price was 2500 - 2600 dollars, equivalent to 1750 - 1820 points on the futures market. [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For the EC2602 contract, it is moving towards the delivery logic, and its subsequent performance will be affected by the spot market. With a neutral valuation currently, it is not recommended to enter the market [3]. - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. The expected decline in the Week 5 MSK opening price may suppress the market, but the increasing rush - shipping scale due to falling freight rates may weaken the price decline slope in March. The valuation fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and it is advisable to watch for potential correction opportunities [3]. - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for the far - month contracts. Considering significant geopolitical disturbances in the far - month contracts, it is generally recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On January 15, 2026, the closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 1718.0 (down 0.14%), 1230.5 (up 2.57%), 1424.1 (up 0.75%), 1532.6 (up 0.18%), and 1118.0 (up 0.96%) respectively. The trading volumes were 5642, 45075, 1903, 212, and 1822, and the open interests were 10461 (down 1401), 40044 (up 1274), 3130 (down 134), 1306 (down 53), and 7625 (up 179) [2]. - **Month - spread**: The month - spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 were 487.5 and - 193.6 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 33.2 and 20.2 [2]. - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European Line) on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39 points, up 8.94% from the previous period; the SCFI (European Line) on January 9, 2026, was 1719 dollars/TEU, up 1.72% [2]. Spot Market Conditions - **Week 3**: MSK opened at 2600 dollars, other alliances had small declines. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points [4]. - **Week 4**: MSK opened at 2700 dollars, other alliances remained stable. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points [4]. - **Week 5**: MSK opened at 2400 dollars (down 300 dollars from the previous week), YML quoted 2650 dollars, MSC quoted 2640 dollars. The overall central price was 2650 dollars (equivalent to 1855 points). On Wednesday, YML offered special prices of 2250 dollars for two routes [4]. News - **Palestinian Cease - fire Agreement**: On January 15, Palestinian factions reached a consensus on the second - stage requirements of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and on establishing an independent committee to manage Gaza [5]. - **US and Iran Situation**: The US special envoy launched the second stage of the "ten - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict; Iran closed its airspace; Trump hinted at postponing military action against Iran, causing international oil prices to drop by 4% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - No clear core views are explicitly stated in the provided reports. The reports mainly present various data on different futures and industries including股指期货, bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spreads - **IF Spreads**: The IF spot - futures spread was 3.52, up from the previous day. The historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles were 58.90% and 82.70% respectively. For IF inter - delivery spreads, different combinations showed various values and percentile positions [1]. - **IH Spreads**: Similar to IF, IH spreads had specific values and percentile changes compared to the previous day [1]. - **IC Spreads**: The IC spot - futures spread was 897, with high historical percentiles. Inter - delivery spreads also had their own values and changes [1]. - **IM Spreads**: The IM spot - futures spread was 6.26. Inter - delivery spreads showed different magnitudes and percentile positions [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 300, CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 50, and others had their current values, changes, and historical percentiles [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: For different bond futures like TS, TF, T, and TL, their implied repo rates (IRR) and basis had specific values, changes, and percentiles on December 17, 2025 [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Inter - delivery spreads for different bond futures contracts (e.g., current quarter - next quarter, current quarter - far quarter) had their values, changes, and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. also had corresponding data on December 17, 2025 [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Domestic Futures**: On December 17, 2025, domestic futures contracts like AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, and PD2606 had their closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes compared to the previous day [3]. - **Foreign Futures**: Foreign futures contracts such as COMEX gold, COMEX silver, NYMEX platinum, and NYMEX palladium also had their closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of precious metals including London gold, London silver, and others had their values, changes, and percentage changes [3]. - **Basis**: The basis between different spot and futures prices (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold, London gold - COMEX gold) had specific values, changes, and historical percentiles [3]. - **Ratios**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, and others had their current values, changes, and percentage changes [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate had their values, changes, and percentage changes [3]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: Inventories of precious metals in different exchanges and ETF holdings had their values, changes, and percentage changes [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European and US West routes) and SCFI (composite, European, US West, and US East routes) had their settlement or freight rates, changes, and percentage changes [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures contracts like EC2602 (main contract) and others had their prices, changes, and percentage changes. The basis of the main contract also had its value and change [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply had a slight change. Shanghai port - related indicators such as port on - time rate, port berthing situation, and monthly export volume had their values and percentage changes. Overseas economic indicators including Eurozone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, and US manufacturing PMI also had their changes [5].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the freight futures market, mainly analyzing the prices, trends, and influencing factors of European line freight futures contracts, as well as recent news and market conditions [2]. 1. Futures Contract Price and Change 1.1 Futures Contract Prices and Fluctuations - EC2512: The price was 1749.4, with a change of 0.119%, and the trading volume was 22970, and the open interest decreased by 4048 to 21157 [2]. - EC2602: The price was 1636.6, a decrease of 3.19%, the trading volume was 27879, and the open interest increased by 3551 to 32901 [2]. - EC2604: The price was 1172.0, a decrease of 1.33%, the trading volume was 5188, and the open interest increased by 73 to 15483 [2]. - EC2606: The price was 1364.7, a decrease of 4.16%, the trading volume was 532, and the open interest increased by 144 to 1567 [2]. - EC2608: The price was 1472.1, a decrease of 4.712%, the trading volume was 336, and the open interest decreased by 5 to 1208 [2]. - EC2610: The price was 1129.9, a decrease of 0.67%, the trading volume was 609, and the open interest increased by 225 to 1833 [2]. 1.2 Month - to - Month Spread - EC2512 - 2504: The spread was 577.4, with a daily increase of 19.1 and a weekly decrease of 142.5 [2]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 112.8, with a daily increase of 57.2 and a weekly decrease of 203.4 [2]. - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was 464.6, with a daily decrease of 38.1 and a weekly increase of 60.9 [2]. 2. Index Data 2.1 Index Values and Changes - Data Index: Updated weekly on Mondays. As of 2025/11/10, it was 1504.80 points, an increase of 24.50% from the previous period and a decrease of 7.92% expected in the next period [2]. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, a decrease of 1.56% from the previous period [2]. - CCFI: Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 1366.85 points, an increase of 3.25% from the previous period and an expected increase of 2.37% in the next period [2]. - NCFI: Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 911.73 points, a decrease of 5.8% from the previous period and an expected increase of 17.43% in the next period [2]. 3. Market Analysis and Outlook 3.1 Market Movement on Wednesday - In the morning, the market oscillated, and in the afternoon, it dropped across the board due to the news that the Houthi rebels officially announced to stop attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea [2]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Contracts - EC2512: Its valuation is neutral and will gradually follow the delivery logic. The freight rate in late November will determine the implementation degree of the price - holding in December. It is expected to mainly follow the changes in spot prices and the rhythm of shipping companies' price announcements in the future [2]. - EC2602: Its valuation is more difficult to anchor. In the short term, it is expected to mainly follow the trend of EC2512. If the peak - season cargo - booking situation is gradually realized in the future, it may have more room for growth. The peak freight rate usually occurs 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year) [3]. - EC2604: It is a off - season contract. In the short term, it will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the peak - season logic. Considering the expected greater supply pressure next year and the off - season in April, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3]. 4. Recent European Line Quotation Situation 4.1 Cargo - Booking Situation - In week 45, the cargo - booking situation was good; in week 46, the PA cargo - receiving improved slightly, but the shipping capacity in this week was extremely low. The pressure increased in the second half of November. Among them, PA improved, while MSK faced increased cargo - receiving pressure, and the pressure on OA decreased due to sailings suspension compared with the first half of the month [4]. 4.2 Price Levels - In week 46, the average landed price was 2000 dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures). Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 dollars for the second half of November, but MSK opened the booking at 2250 dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period). It is expected that the quotes of other shipping companies will be gradually lowered this week, and they may also announce a price increase for December [4]. - In week 47, the offline PA price was around 2000 dollars, OA was 2200 - 2400 dollars, and MSK was 2000 dollars. OOCL lowered the online price for November by 300 dollars to 2600 dollars [4]. - On Tuesday, MSK opened the booking for week 48 at 1900 - 2000 dollars, equivalent to 1340 - 1400 dollars on the futures [4]. 5. Related News - On 11/12, the Houthi rebels issued a statement saying that they would end their targeted actions against maritime interests related to Israel and stop armed attacks on merchant ships passing through the Red Sea. However, they warned that if the enemy continued to invade Gaza, they would resume military operations and the navigation ban on Israeli ships [5]. - On 11/12, Hamas stated that it had completed the first phase of the cease - fire agreement. A senior Hamas member said that the previous cease - fire agreement was only a "preliminary agreement" and not a final comprehensive one. The first - phase implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement had been in place for a month, but the second - phase negotiation had not started yet. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel was determined to enforce the cease - fire agreement with a "heavy hand" in Gaza and Lebanon [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current valuation of the December contract is moderately high. With multiple price increase announcements and long - term contract signings from November to December as positive drivers, it is recommended to adopt a "buy - on - dips" strategy, waiting for next week or continue to trade based on the PA price cut/MSK's flat opening [3]. - The February contract's valuation is difficult to anchor, with high uncertainty. It is expected to follow the December contract's trend in the next month [3]. - The April contract is for the off - season. It will fluctuate within a narrow range under the current peak - season logic and face greater supply pressure next year. A "sell - on - rallies" strategy is recommended [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - For EC2512, the closing price was 1804.0, down 2.16%, with a basis of - 491.3, trading volume of 59519, and an open interest of 31365, an increase of 1259 [2]. - For EC2602, the closing price was 1553.6, down 1.86%, with a basis of - 240.9, trading volume of 11387, and an open interest of 18455, an increase of 2222 [2]. - For EC2604, the closing price was 1161.1, down 1.26%, with a basis of 151.6, trading volume of 4119, and an open interest of 14910, an increase of 450 [2]. - For EC2606, the closing price was 1379.6, down 1.69%, with a basis of - 66.9, trading volume of 366, and an open interest of 1521, an increase of 110 [2]. - For EC2608, the closing price was 1471.1, down 1.10%, with a basis of - 158.4, trading volume of 226, and an open interest of 1352, an increase of 23 [2]. - For EC2610, the closing price was 1132.0, down 0.04%, with a basis of 180.7, trading volume of 442, and an open interest of 1280, an increase of 218 [2]. Month - spread Data - The EC2512 - 2504 month - spread was 642.9, down 25.0 day - on - day and up 21.6 week - on - week [2]. - The EC2512 - 2602 month - spread was 250.4, down 10.4 day - on - day and up 39.3 week - on - week [2]. - The EC2502 - 2604 month - spread was 392.5, down 14.6 day - on - day and down 17.7 week - on - week [2]. Spot Index Data - The SCFIS (European Line) index on October 27, 2025, was 1312.71, up 15.11% from the previous period [2]. - The SCFI (European Line) on October 31, 2025, was 1344 dollars/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period [2]. - The CCFI on October 31, 2025, was 1323.81, up 2.37% from the previous period [2]. - The NCFI on October 31, 2025, was 965.62, up 17.43% from the previous period [2]. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, in week 49, there was one additional sail - canceling, and two ships postponed departure. The average weekly capacity in November and December is 290,000 and 336,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as sail - canceling, it is 286,000 and 313,000 TEU. The capacity in week 45/46/47/48 of November was 310,000/250,000/277,000/325,000 TEU respectively, with greater pressure in the second half of November [2]. - In the first half of November, OA and MSK had no pressure in receiving goods, while the PA alliance was short of goods and led the price cut [2]. Recent European Line Quotation - Downstream customers are finalizing the cabin bookings for early November (week 45). In the first half of November, the PA alliance cut prices the most, to 1700 - 1900 US dollars, GEMIN to 2100 - 2200 US dollars, and OA to 2250 US dollars, with an average of about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1430 points on the futures market) [4]. Related News - On October 31, Israel attacked Gaza for the third consecutive night, impacting the cease - fire agreement. The cease - fire agreement mediated by the US has been in effect for three weeks, but issues such as Hamas' disarmament and Israel's withdrawal schedule from Gaza remain unsolved [5]. - On November 1, Qatar warned that Gaza might fall into a "neither war nor peace" situation, calling on the international community to intervene [5]. - On November 3, the Houthi armed forces stated that they would strongly respond to any Israeli aggression [5].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles of stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, IM, and cross - variety ratios [1] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Spot - Futures Spread**: IF's is - 30.20, down 1.29; IH's is - 16.68, down 1.66; IC's is - 74.15, up 0.72; IM's is - 93.46, up 10.33 [1] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different delivery month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, with various changes and quantiles [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., are given, along with their changes and quantiles [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Displays the latest values, changes from the previous day, and quantiles since listing of treasury bond futures spreads, including TS, TF, T, TL, and cross - variety spreads [4] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Basis**: IRR and basis values for TS, TF, T, and TL are presented [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Spreads between different delivery months for TS, TF, T, and TL are shown, with corresponding changes and quantiles [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads between different treasury bond futures varieties are given, along with their changes and quantiles [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Shows domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [8] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Domestic and Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: AU2508 contract is down 0.73%, AG2508 contract is down 0.76%; COMEX gold is down 1.73%, COMEX silver is down 0.76% [8] - **Spot Prices**: London gold, London silver, Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D, and silver T + D all show declines [8] - **Basis**: Basis values and their changes for gold and silver are presented, along with historical 1 - year quantiles [8] - **Ratio**: Ratios of COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver are given, with their changes and percentage changes [8] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields decline, while the US dollar index rises [8] - **Inventory and Positions**: Some inventories change slightly, and ETF positions remain unchanged [8] Group 4: Container Shipping Index - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Provides settlement price indices, Shanghai export container freight rates, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [12] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Settlement Price Index**: SCFIS (European route) is down 1.44%, SCFIS (US West route) is up 18.90% [12] - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate**: SCFI composite index, SCFI (Europe), SCFI (US West), and SCFI (US East) all show increases [12] - **Futures Price and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts change, and the basis of the main contract decreases by 7.16% [12] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is stable, Shanghai port's on - time rate and berthing situation decline, and some overseas economic indicators change [12] Group 5: Domestic Data/Information - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Lists domestic economic indicators and financial events in different sectors, including black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities [17] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals**: Steel Union's weekly survey of 523 mine production and sales for coking coal and coke [17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: China's port commercial crude oil inventory data from Longzhong Information [17] - **Special Commodities**: Glass sales rate and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory [17] Group 6: Capital Flow and Key Position Changes - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The report title mentions capital flow and key position changes, but specific content is incomplete and unavailable for detailed summary [19]