8 December 2025 Global Energy Storage Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. +852 2123 2648 neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA +852 2123 2615 brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Hengliang Zhang +852 2123 2629 hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Europe • UK sees weakest monthly EV sales growth in 2 years - electrive.com. In November, the UK registered 39,965 new battery electric vehicles (BEVs), up 3.6%, giving BEVs a 26.4% market share—1.5% higher than last year. Despite this, growth was the weakest in two years. Electrified veh ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 04 December 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Battery & Materials 2026 target revised up; December production outlook: CATL the only manufacturer seeing m/m growth J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Li ...

December 4, 2025 07:22 AM GMT Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd. | Asia Pacific Business Update Call Takeaways Key Takeaways Mgmt expects Ganfeng's lithium chemicals production to be 170-180kt LCE in 2025, growing by 50kt LCE in 2026, of which 30-50kt will come from its own mines. Project updates: Management sees a tight supply-demand balance for lithium in 2026, with demand being ~2mnt LCE and supply being 2-2.1mnt LCE, assuming some restarts following recent lithium price hikes. The s-d balance could be even tighte ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Asia Pacific Equity Research 30 November 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. ESS Battery Raising forecasts by 17%; AIDC ESS use case emerging Global ESS demand has exceeded expectations this year, with battery sh ...

Summary of the 2025 China Materials Tour Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Battery Materials and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) - **Key Company**: ZE Consulting Core Insights 1. **Battery Demand Forecast**: ZE Consulting predicts a significant increase in ESS demand for FY26, estimating a growth of **70-80% YoY**. This is attributed to battery makers revising their output guidance upwards for FY26, indicating a tightening supply-demand dynamic in the battery market [1][2][3] 2. **Battery Price Trends**: Anticipated price hikes in batteries are expected due to: - Tightening supply and demand dynamics for both ESS and electric vehicle (EV) batteries - Inflation in raw material costs that battery manufacturers will need to pass on to consumers [1][3][5] 3. **Production Pipeline**: The production pipeline for December 2025 is expected to remain stable month-over-month. Leading battery manufacturers are stockpiling battery materials in preparation for increased average selling prices (ASP) and for production needs during the Chinese New Year [2][3] 4. **Cost Inflation Impact**: Recent inflation in battery materials has resulted in approximately a **10% increase** in the cost of battery cells. Key materials such as LiPF6, VC, and lithium carbonate have seen significant price increases, with further hikes expected for cathodes and other components [3][5] 5. **Lepidolite Mine Operations**: JXW is projected to resume operations in December 2025, adding around **8,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE)** monthly to the market. However, other lepidolite mines may face operational suspensions similar to CATL's situation during FY26 [4][5] 6. **Price Hikes Sequence**: The sequence of price increases is expected to start with ESS, followed by LiPF6 and cathodes, and then separators and anodes. EV battery prices may also rise due to cost pressures and a shift in production capacity towards ESS [5][8] 7. **Profitability Concerns**: If battery makers increase the ASP of battery cells to offset cost inflation, it could negatively impact the internal rate of return (IRR) for ESS projects. Profitability is at risk if the ASP exceeds **Rmb0.4/wh** [8] Additional Important Points - **Inventory Management**: Leading battery manufacturers are increasing their inventory of battery materials in anticipation of rising prices and production needs [2][3] - **Market Dynamics**: The overall market dynamics indicate a shift towards a more constrained supply environment, which could lead to further price volatility in the battery materials sector [1][5] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of the battery materials industry and its implications for future investments.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Energy Storage Systems (ESS) Battery Core Insights and Arguments - **Global ESS Battery Shipments**: In October, global ESS battery shipments increased by 6% month-over-month (m/m) and 70% year-over-year (y/y), with a doubling of demand in the first ten months of 2025 compared to the same period last year, primarily driven by robust exports from China, which saw over 140% y/y growth [2][11][34] - **Domestic Market Performance**: In China, domestic ESS battery shipments surged by 77% y/y and 19% m/m in October, supported by favorable government policies and a rebound in demand following a decline earlier in the year [2][11][34] - **AIDC Demand**: The demand for ESS driven by AI data centers (AIDC) is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts indicating an 85% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2030 [11][34] - **Market Dynamics**: Chinese players' shipments to the US dropped by 30% m/m in October due to anticipated tariff changes, yet they experienced a 176% y/y growth in the first ten months of 2025 [11][34] Key Players and Market Share - **Top Picks**: J.P. Morgan identifies CATL-A, Sungrow, and LGES as top picks in the ESS market due to their strong market positions and growth potential [2][11] - **Sungrow**: The largest solar inverter producer globally, with a market share of approximately 30% as of FY24, is expected to benefit from rising ESS demand [11][34] - **CATL**: The largest ESS battery maker globally, with a significant share in the US market, is projected to gain market share in the domestic market post-policy changes [11][34] Regional Demand Insights - **China's Domestic Demand**: The domestic market accounted for 37% of total Chinese ESS battery shipments in the first ten months of 2025, down from approximately 48% in 2024, while the US market accounted for 24% [11][45] - **Export Growth**: ESS battery shipments to the US saw a remarkable increase of 176% y/y, driven by strong demand and rush purchases before tariff hikes [11][45] Price Trends and Production Capacity - **ESS Battery Prices**: Prices have remained largely flat following a 5-10% rebound in mid-2023, indicating stable market conditions despite fluctuations in demand [11][34] - **Production Capacity**: CATL's global ESS market share fell by 9 percentage points in the first ten months of 2025 due to capacity constraints and policy disruptions, although it remains the leader in production volume [11][69] Future Outlook - **Forecast Upgrades**: The US ESS installation forecast for FY26 has been upgraded from a 13% y/y decline to a 13% y/y growth, reflecting increased confidence in market recovery [11][8] - **Strategic Agreements**: HyperStrong signed a ten-year supply agreement with CATL for over 200 GWh of energy storage batteries, indicating strong expectations for future demand [11][7] Additional Insights - **Market Competition**: The competition in the China domestic market is fierce, with CATL holding only about 15% market share, down from 25% in 2024, while the US market sees CATL leading with approximately 47% market share [11][45] - **Utility-Scale Market**: CATL experienced an 11 percentage point decrease in market share in the utility-scale segment, primarily due to competition from BYD and Hithium [11][95] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the ESS battery industry, highlighting growth trends, market dynamics, and future outlooks for key players.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for CALB Group Co Ltd with a target price of HK$33.40, indicating an expected share price return of 3.3% [6]. Core Insights - CALB's battery shipment volume guidance for 2025E is set at 110GWh, with expectations to exceed this target based on year-to-date trends and production plans for the last two months of the year. For 2026E, the guidance is 180GWh, comprising 110GWh for EV batteries and 70GWh for ESS batteries [2][3]. - The completed battery capacity is projected to be over 160GWh by the end of 2025 and over 230GWh by the end of 2026, with effective capacities expected to be 130GWh and nearly 200GWh, respectively [2]. - Demand for ESS batteries is strong, with CALB operating at full capacity in 2025. The company anticipates sustained capacity amid shipment bottlenecks and strong demand growth from both existing and new clients in 2026-27E [3]. - Management expects a slight increase in the average selling price (ASP) of ESS batteries due to tight supply, but significant increases are unlikely. Margins in the ESS battery segment are expected to rise in 2026-27E due to increased shipments to overseas markets and higher-margin ESS system shipments [4]. - For EV batteries, effective capacity is expected to reach 85GWh in 2025E and 130GWh in 2026E. Shipment growth for EV batteries is anticipated to remain strong, with improved margins expected as shipments to international OEMs increase [5]. Summary by Sections Battery Shipment - CALB's battery shipment volume guidance for 2025E is 110GWh, with expectations to exceed this target. For 2026E, the guidance is 180GWh, including 110GWh for EV batteries and 70GWh for ESS batteries [2]. Battery Capacity - Completed battery capacity is expected to be over 160GWh in 2025 and over 230GWh in 2026, with effective capacities projected at 130GWh and nearly 200GWh, respectively [2]. ESS Battery - ESS battery demand is strong, with full utilization expected in 2025. Capacity is anticipated to be sustained in 2026 amid strong demand growth [3]. ESS Battery Price and Margin - Management expects a slight increase in ESS battery ASP due to tight supply, with margins expected to rise in 2026-27E due to increased shipments to overseas markets [4]. EV Battery - Effective capacity for EV batteries is projected at 85GWh in 2025E and 130GWh in 2026E, with strong shipment growth and improved margins expected [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China's Battery Value Chain - **Focus**: Catalyst previews for 4Q25-1Q26, emphasizing the importance of Energy Storage System (ESS) order momentum and price negotiations across the battery value chain [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) - **ESS Order Momentum**: Strong throughout 2025; if sustained into 2026, valuations could increase despite potential US export tariff hikes [7] - **Battery Price Negotiation**: Material prices may rise in 4Q25; CATL may negotiate battery prices based on a cost-plus scheme, potentially leading to higher margins [7] - **Truck Electrification**: Rising electric vehicle (EV) penetration rate in 2025 suggests strong e-truck battery growth in 2026, alleviating concerns over e-passenger vehicle (ePV) battery slowdowns due to subsidy reductions in China [7] EVE Energy Co. Ltd. - **4Q25 Reporting**: Key for assessing improvements in product mix, average selling price (ASP), and profitability; previous ASP miss raises investor concerns [7] - **ESS Order Momentum**: Sustained high growth in ESS orders could maintain valuations, but increased competition from CATL's capacity expansion may limit revenue opportunities [7] Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co. - **Price Negotiations**: Long-term contracts with top battery makers will be negotiated in 4Q25, crucial for determining profitability over the next 1-2 years [9] Yunnan Energy New Material Co. Ltd. - **Price Negotiations**: Similar to Tinci, negotiations in 4Q25 will be key for unit profit direction [9] - **Earnings Turnaround**: Previous downturns led to one-offs; product price increases in 4Q25 raise questions about achieving a turnaround [9] Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co. - **Price Negotiations**: Long-term contracts with top battery makers in 4Q25 will be critical for unit profit direction [9] Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The overall battery market is influenced by the balance of supply and demand, particularly for LiPF6 and electrolytes, with potential price recovery expected [10][14] - **Risks**: - **Upside Risks**: Stronger EV penetration and ESS applications, better-than-expected margins, and market share gains [16][22] - **Downside Risks**: Weaker EV penetration, battery price wars, and potential delays in capacity expansion [20][21] Valuation Methodology - **Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.**: Valued at 5.5x 2026 estimated book value, reflecting re-rate potential due to tight LiPF6 supply [10] - **Yunnan Energy New Material Co.**: Price target of RMB 53 based on 2x 2026 estimated P/B, accounting for past earnings quality issues [11] - **EVE Energy Co.**: Valued at 18x 2025 estimated P/E, slightly below industry average due to price competition and margin pressure [12] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted critical catalysts for the battery industry in China, focusing on order momentum, price negotiations, and the impact of EV penetration on future growth. The insights provided a comprehensive view of the potential opportunities and risks within the sector, particularly for key players like CATL, EVE Energy, and Tinci.

Summary of Global Energy Storage Conference Call Industry Overview - The battery value chain in China has experienced a significant surge in demand, with a year-on-year increase of 50% in 2025, leading to a rally in stock prices across the sector, particularly for battery cell makers, LFP cathodes, and electrolytes, which saw gains of 60-80% [1][15] - Battery demand is projected to grow by 45% year-on-year, reaching 1.7 TWh for the full year 2025, driven by lower battery costs, strong EV product lineups, and increasing needs for power and energy storage systems (ESS) [1][11] Key Financial Metrics - Battery cell prices have rebounded by 10%, with NMC battery cell prices increasing by 5%-15% and LFP prices by 7% [2][23] - Average utilization rates for Chinese battery companies reached a historical high of 97% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong operational efficiency [2][30] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The gap between battery demand growth (35-40%) and capacity expansion (25-30%) is widening, suggesting potential capacity constraints that could drive margins back to cyclical highs [3][32] - The demand for ESS is doubling in China and increasing by 50-60% in Europe and the US, with LFP batteries being the dominant technology benefiting Chinese companies [7][9] Earnings and Growth Projections - CATL is expected to deliver 42% earnings growth for 3Q25, with battery sales growth between 35% and 40% year-on-year [4][5] - Despite an expected decline in average selling prices (ASP) by 8% year-on-year, there is potential for upside due to recent increases in battery cell prices [4] Investment Implications - The rally in battery stocks is expected to continue, supported by strong earnings momentum and high utilization rates [3][7] - Tactical trades in companies involved in LFP cathode material, electrolytes, and lithium are favored due to anticipated strong earnings growth [7] Competitive Landscape - CATL remains the top pick within the battery value chain, with strong potential for continued re-rating despite geopolitical concerns [5] - Other notable companies include Hunan Yuneng (LFP cathode), Ronbay (NMC cathode), and Tinci Materials (electrolyte), which have shown significant improvements in plant utilization [5][15] Price Trends and Market Conditions - The price of lithium has rebounded from a low of US$8.2k/ton in July to US$10.1k/ton, reflecting a stable supply-demand balance [2][25] - Battery cell prices have shown a clear rebound since April, driven by supply tightness in LFP and ESS battery cells [23][24] Utilization and Operational Data - Companies reported high levels of utilization and expect sequential improvements in revenue growth and margins for the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [30][31] - Utilization rates across the battery value chain ranged from approximately 50% to 80% in Q3 2025, with significant improvements noted in the electrolyte, cathode, and separator sectors [35] Conclusion - The battery industry is poised for continued growth, driven by strong demand, improving prices, and high utilization rates, making it an attractive sector for investment opportunities [1][7][11]

Summary of China Battery Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China battery market**, particularly the export data and price expectations for batteries as of August 2025 [5][66]. Key Points and Arguments Battery Export Data - **Total battery exports** (including consumer batteries and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS)) increased by **45% year-over-year (YoY)** in August 2025 and **67% YoY** in the first eight months of 2025 [5][75]. - **Export breakdown**: - **United States**: 21% of total export volume in 8M25, with a **28% YoY** increase, but a **60% month-over-month (MoM)** decline back to May levels [5]. - **Europe**: 36% of total export volume in 8M25, with a **65% YoY** increase and a **24% MoM** increase in August 2025. The growth is attributed to both Electric Vehicle (EV) battery demand and emerging demand for Energy Storage Systems (ESS) [5]. - **Rest of the World (RoW)**: 42% of total export volume in 8M25, with a **99% YoY** increase, contributing approximately **107 GWh** of exports [5]. Price Expectations - There is **caution regarding sustained price increases** in the battery market despite short-term tightness. Seasonal strengths in Q4 2025 may lead to temporary price rebounds, but a sustainable price hike is deemed unlikely due to expected seasonal weakness in Q1 2026 [5]. - A **sensitivity analysis** indicates that a **10% price hike** could result in a **30%-60% earnings upside** in 2026E. Companies like **Gotion, CALB, and EVE Energy** are noted to be more sensitive to battery price hikes [5]. Market Dynamics - The **30%-80% rally** in share prices over the past 60 trading days is believed to have already priced in **2%-5% battery Average Selling Price (ASP)** hikes for 2026E [5]. - The **battery supply chain** shows varied utilization trends across different components, with notable increases in separator and electrolyte prices [8][37]. Company Performance - **CATL, BYD, and CALB** are highlighted as key players in the domestic battery installation market, with varying month-over-month growth rates [54][56]. - **Sales volume** for major companies in August 2025 shows significant YoY growth, with **BTR** at **44.1 kt** (+62% YoY) and **Shanshan** at **46.2 kt** (+40% YoY) [60]. Additional Insights - The **European BEV market** saw a **25% YoY sales growth** in the first half of 2025, which is a significant driver for battery imports from China [5]. - Emerging markets with high solar installation percentages, such as the **Netherlands, Bulgaria, and Greece**, are increasingly importing batteries despite limited EV production [5]. Conclusion - The China battery market is experiencing robust growth in exports, particularly to Europe and the RoW, driven by both EV and ESS demand. However, expectations for sustained price increases are tempered by anticipated seasonal fluctuations and a balanced supply-demand dynamic. Key players are positioned to benefit from potential price hikes, but market conditions will require careful monitoring.