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双碳周报:全国碳市场碳排放配额累计成交量明显下调-20251212
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the carbon quota trading price in the European carbon market increased, the EUA futures price in the US market decreased while the UKA futures price increased, and the KAU25 spot price in the South Korean market decreased. The carbon quota trading volume in the European and US carbon markets increased, while that in the South Korean market decreased. In the national carbon market in China, the cumulative trading volume and transaction amount of carbon emission allowances decreased, but the daily average trading price increased. The weekly trading volume of domestic pilot carbon markets increased, with trading mainly concentrated in the Hubei carbon market [2]. - Two important events occurred in the field of green development last week: the official launch of China's first pressure - energy zero - carbon data center and the successful development of the first 110 - kilowatt - class thermally coupled direct seawater electrolysis hydrogen production system device [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Carbon Trading Market Tracking 3.1.1 European Carbon Quota Price and Volume - EUA spot price rose from 81.92 euros/ton on December 1st to 82.56 euros/ton on December 5th, with a weekly increase of 0.78%. The EUA spot trading volume last week was 19.10 tons, a 55.28% increase from the previous week [6]. 3.1.2 US Carbon Quota Price and Volume - EUA futures price dropped from 82.64 euros/ton on December 1st to 81.98 euros/ton on December 5th, with a weekly decrease of 0.80%. The total trading volume of EUA futures last week was 369.90 million tons, a 12.87% increase from the previous week. UKA futures price rose from 55.46 pounds/ton on December 1st to 56.10 pounds/ton on December 5th, with a weekly increase of 0.64% [8]. 3.1.3 South Korean Carbon Quota Price and Volume - KAU25 spot price dropped from 10,800 won/ton on December 1st to 10,450 won/ton on December 5th, with a weekly decrease of 3.24%. The trading volume of KAU25 spot in the South Korean market last week was 35.90 tons, a 23.78% decrease from the previous week [14]. 3.2 Domestic Carbon Market Tracking 3.2.1 National Carbon Market Carbon Quota Volume and Average Transaction Price - The cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances (CEA) in the national carbon market last week was 681.84 tons, and the cumulative transaction amount was 399 million yuan. Both the cumulative trading volume and transaction amount decreased compared to the previous week, with a decline of 32.14% and 31.84% respectively. As of December 5th, the daily average trading price of CEA last week was 58.73 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase from the previous week [17]. 3.2.2 Weekly Average Transaction Price of Carbon Quotas in Domestic Pilot Provincial and Municipal Carbon Markets - Except for the Guangdong Province GDEA and Fujian Province FJEA, the weekly average transaction price of carbon quotas in domestic pilot carbon markets showed a downward trend. The GDEA in Guangdong Province had the largest increase of 2.42%, and the HBEA in Hubei Province had the largest decrease of 8.59%. Compared with the same period last month (November 3rd - November 7th, 2025), except for the BEA in Beijing and the GDEA in Guangdong, the weekly average transaction price of carbon quotas in each pilot carbon market showed a downward trend, with the HBEA in Hubei Province having the largest decrease of 10.75% [20]. 3.2.3 Trading Volume and Transaction Amount of Carbon Quotas in Domestic Pilot Provincial and Municipal Carbon Markets - The carbon quota trading in domestic pilot carbon markets last week was mainly concentrated in the Hubei carbon market. Its weekly trading volume accounted for 89.25% of the total weekly trading volume of all pilot carbon markets, and the transaction amount accounted for 87.86% of the total weekly transaction amount of all pilot carbon markets. The total weekly trading volume of domestic pilot carbon markets last week was 106.16 tons, an increase of 77.37% from the previous week [21]. 3.3 Double - Carbon Frontier Technology Tracking 3.3.1 Official Launch of China's First Pressure - Energy Zero - Carbon Data Center - The first pressure - energy zero - carbon data center in China was officially launched in Shaoxing, Zhejiang. It innovatively constructs an integrated and coordinated operation system of "pressure energy - electric energy - cold energy - computing power", achieving the deep integration of electric energy, cold energy, and computing power generated by natural gas differential pressure power generation. It can provide important support for the development of "Artificial Intelligence +" applications, reaching the leading level in the industry and filling the domestic gap in related technology fields. Compared with traditional commercial data centers, it no longer relies on fossil energy for power generation, achieving "zero - carbon" operation. After the project is put into operation, the annual power generation will exceed 1.5 million kilowatt - hours, and the annual electricity cost savings will exceed 1.2 million yuan [23]. 3.3.2 China Successfully Developed the First 110 - Kilowatt - Class Thermally Coupled Direct Seawater Electrolysis Hydrogen Production System Device - The "Thermally Coupled Direct Seawater Electrolysis Hydrogen Production" achievement press conference was held in Rizhao, Shandong on December 6th. China has successfully developed the first 110 - kilowatt - class thermally coupled direct seawater electrolysis hydrogen production system device, which has achieved continuous and stable operation for more than 500 hours, marking a key breakthrough from the laboratory to engineering application in the field of direct seawater electrolysis hydrogen production. This device solves the problem that traditional green hydrogen must rely on high - purity fresh water and provides a more efficient and low - cost solution for future seawater hydrogen production and other water electrolysis hydrogen production processes [24].
商品市场持仓与资金流向_全球商品市场持仓价值跌破 10 年季节性高位-Commodity Market Positioning & Flows_ Global commodity market open interest value dips below 10-year seasonal high
2025-08-22 01:00
Summary of J.P. Morgan Commodity Market Positioning & Flows Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global commodity market, specifically analyzing open interest values and investor positioning across various sectors including energy, precious metals, base metals, and agricultural commodities [3][7][10]. Key Points and Arguments Global Commodity Market Trends - The estimated value of global commodity market open interest declined by **1.0% week-over-week (WOW)**, decreasing by **$14 billion** to **$1.47 trillion**, falling below the 10-year seasonal high [3][7]. - The net investor position across global commodity futures markets decreased by **3.3% WOW**, amounting to **$124 billion** as of August 12 [3][14]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Energy Markets**: - Open interest value in energy markets decreased by **$6 billion WOW**, marking the third consecutive weekly decline, primarily due to price weakness amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [3][20]. - Global oil demand growth is tracking at **0.92 million barrels per day (mbd)**, slightly below the estimated **0.94 mbd** for the year-to-date [3]. - **Precious Metals**: - Open interest in precious metals markets fell by **5.9% WOW** to **$245 billion**, driven by significant outflows from gold markets totaling **$9.7 billion** [3][25]. - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) continued its gold buying streak, adding **2 tonnes** to its reserves in July, with year-to-date purchases reaching **21 tonnes** [4]. - **Base Metals**: - Open interest in base metals increased by **2.3% WOW** to **$175 billion**, with net inflows concentrated in copper and nickel [6][24]. - **Agricultural Commodities**: - Open interest value in agricultural markets rose by **1.4% WOW** to **$330 billion**, driven by rising prices in grains and oilseeds [6][27]. - The USDA reported record high US corn and soybean yields, with corn at **188.8 bushels per acre** and soybeans at **53.3 bushels per acre** [6]. Price Momentum and Market Signals - Price momentum across commodities was mixed, with declines in most metals and energy markets, while agricultural commodities showed increased momentum [6][47]. - Positive price momentum signals were observed for **CBOT Soybeans** and **ICE Coffee**, while short-term sell signals emerged for **ICE EUA's**, **COMEX Gold**, and **LME Lead** [6][47]. Investor Positioning - Managed Money net length in COMEX Gold futures decreased by **5.7k contracts** to approximately **148k contracts net long**, indicating a cautious investor sentiment [3][15]. - The net long position of Investment Funds in European Union Allowances (EUA's) increased by **39% WOW** to **28,856 lots** as of August 8 [6][23]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring Federal Reserve Chair Powell's comments at Jackson Hole, particularly regarding gold markets, as sticky inflation suggests limited easing from the Fed [3]. - The report also cautions about potential short covering risks across grain, cotton, and sugar markets due to weak investor positioning [6]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of the current state of the global commodity market, highlighting key trends, sector-specific insights, and investor behaviors that could influence future market movements.