Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor stocks are crucial for the AI and data center boom, with a focus on companies supplying chipmaking equipment rather than just chips [1] Group 1: ASML's Position and Performance - ASML has received a significant endorsement from Morgan Stanley, which raised its price target and named it a Top Pick in European semiconductors due to strengthening demand in memory and logic sectors [2] - ASML is the largest supplier of chipmaking equipment globally, with its EUV tools being essential for producing advanced CPUs, GPUs, and memory chips, creating a unique oligopoly in the market [4] - ASML's stock has increased approximately 55% year-to-date in 2025, driven by rising demand for chips in AI and data centers [5] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, ASML reported sales of €7.5 billion, slightly higher than the previous year, and net income of about €2.1 billion, with earnings per share at €5.49, surpassing year-ago figures [7] - The company's gross margin remained strong at just over 51% [7] Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Despite strong performance, ASML's valuation is considered high, with a forward P/E ratio around 35x, significantly above the sector median of 23x [6]

ASML Holding NV Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: ASML Holding NV (ASML.AS) - **Industry**: Technology - European Semiconductors - **Market Cap**: €341,480 million - **Current Share Price**: €858.80 (as of November 24, 2025) - **Price Target**: Raised from €975.00 to €1,000.00 Key Points Industry Dynamics - **DRAM Demand**: Strong demand for DRAM technology transitions, particularly the shift from 1a and 1b nodes to 1c nodes, is expected to increase EUV layer requirements, with 5-6 layers anticipated at 1c [3][8] - **Foundry Spending**: Continued solid demand from foundry spending, particularly from major players like Samsung and Hynix, is noted for FY26 [3][4] - **China Market**: Anticipated decline in demand from China, estimated at 15-20% YoY, with a conservative outlook embedded in the estimates [10][12] Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenues for FY26 are €34,141 million, up from €32,624 million in FY25, indicating a growth rate of approximately 4.7% [6][21] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS for FY26 is €26.31, reflecting a growth from €25.20 in FY25 [6][21] - **Margins**: Despite a slowdown in DUV sales, margins are expected to remain resilient due to higher EUV sales and improvements in Installed Base Management (IBM) [4][9] Strategic Insights - **EUV Tool Sales**: ASML anticipates selling 48 EUV tools in FY26, up from 41 in FY25, which is expected to positively impact margins [4][9] - **Installed Base Management**: Improvements in service efficiencies and a shift from upgrades to services are expected to enhance IBM margins [8][9] - **NVIDIA Impact**: Positive developments from NVIDIA, including record revenues and strong demand for AI chips, are expected to indirectly support ASML's foundry equipment supply and DRAM demand [11][12] Market Sentiment - **Shift in Sentiment**: The sentiment around ASML has improved since summer 2025, driven by significant events in the semiconductor industry, including investments in AI and memory supercycle dynamics [15][14] - **Order Book Stability**: The order book is stabilizing after a period of volatility, with indications of a recovery in demand [17][19] Risks and Considerations - **Geopolitical Uncertainty**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions, particularly concerning China, continue to pose risks to ASML's sales and market outlook [13][14] - **DUV Sales Decline**: A projected decline of approximately 6% YoY in DUV sales is expected to balance out the margin benefits from EUV sales [9][12] Conclusion ASML Holding NV is positioned to benefit from strong DRAM demand and foundry spending, with a positive outlook for FY26. The company is expected to maintain resilient margins despite challenges in the DUV segment, and the recent developments in the semiconductor industry, particularly from NVIDIA, are likely to provide additional support for ASML's growth trajectory. The raised price target reflects confidence in ASML's recovery and market position.

9 October 2025 | 8:31AM BST Equity Research ASML Holding (ASML.AS): Robust AI picture, positively revised WFE forecasts and strengthening customer data points; reiterate Buy We continue to see ASML as a clear beneficiary of improved leading-edge Logic/Memory demand from AI as illustrated by recent commentary from the AI ecosystem. Notably, data points have inflected positively in four out of six of the categories in our Europe Semicap tracker. Moreover, our US semis team positively revised its growth expect ...

Summary of ASML Holding NV Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ASML Holding NV - **Industry**: Technology - European Semiconductors - **Market Cap**: €349,950 million - **Current Stock Price**: €880.10 (as of October 3, 2025) - **Price Target**: €950.00 Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - The semiconductor capital equipment market is expected to recover, with ASML being a focal point of interest among investors in the US and Europe [1][3] - ASML has been perceived as a laggard in the semiconductor sector, particularly in relation to the AI boom, but the negative revision cycle appears to have ended [1][3] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue projections for ASML are set to increase from €28,263 million in FY24 to €39,212 million in FY27, indicating a growth trajectory [5][19] - EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) unit sales are expected to rise from 42 in 2025 to 61 in 2027, reflecting increased demand from major clients like Samsung [3][5] Memory Spending and Key Clients - Incremental spending on memory is anticipated to surpass that of TSMC, with Samsung being a significant driver of this growth [7][19] - The consensus expects Samsung to increase its memory spending, which could reverse the flat earnings growth seen in recent years [3][19] Order Book and Market Sentiment - There is uncertainty regarding near-term order intake, with expectations of a thin Q3 order book but a potentially better Q4 [9][19] - The market is cautious about immediate order increases from Samsung due to its existing backlog, with a more significant uptick expected in Q4 [9][19] Risks and Challenges - Risks to ASML's growth thesis include a weaker-than-expected order book, a slowdown in AI capital expenditures, and potential export restrictions affecting sales [21][24] - The anticipated sales from China are projected to decline from €8.5 billion (26% of group sales) this year to about €8 billion (25%) next year, indicating a potential reduction in growth from this market [15][19] Valuation and Investment Thesis - The current valuation reflects a recovery cycle with a projected P/E multiple in the high-20s, supporting a price target of €950 [20][22] - The market has yet to fully recognize ASML's cost controls and the strengthening memory spend, which could lead to positive earnings revisions [20][22] Conclusion - ASML is positioned for a cyclical recovery in the semiconductor capital equipment market, with strong projections for revenue and EUV sales driven by key clients like Samsung. However, the company faces risks related to order intake and market dynamics, particularly in China. The investment thesis remains positive, supported by a favorable valuation outlook.

17 September 2025 | 8:35AM BST ASML Holding (ASML.AS): Improving leading-edge demand trends in addition to continued AI tailwinds with inexpensive valuation, Ayo Odunaiya +44(20)7051-5995 | ayo.x.odunaiya@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 10 September 2025 | 4:39AM BST ASML Holding (ASML.AS): Communacopia + Technology Conference — Key Takeaways Bottom Line: Key takeaways included: 1) Samsung, Intel and EU trade deal news flow since results incrementally positive for ASML in 2026, 2) China demand gradually normalising, with historical regional demand having surprised positively in a number of prior years, 3) Leading-edge Logic demand shows no signs of disruption, with baseline well-defined, 4) DRAM EUV adoption of ...