Core Insights - Barter trade activities between Chery Automobile and Iran have increased due to U.S. sanctions, allowing Chery to supply vehicles in exchange for Iranian metal ores [1][2][4] Group 1: Barter Trade Dynamics - Chery, the largest vehicle exporter in China, has engaged in barter trade with Iran, supplying semi-knocked-down vehicles in exchange for access to Iranian metal ores, which constituted over half of Chery's exports by 2016 [3] - The trade is facilitated through a separate company that routes the vehicles to Chery's local partner in Iran, MVM, for assembly [3] - Chery's approach of not trading in U.S. dollars allows it to operate without violating the sanctions imposed on Iran [4] Group 2: Impact of Sanctions - The U.S. sanctions, intensified after the abandonment of the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2018, have restricted Iran's access to the global financial system, prompting the barter trade [2] - Iran supplies metal ores such as Copper and Zinc to Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Holdings, which then distributes them to other companies in China [4] Group 3: Chery's Financial Activities - Chery's recent IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange raised $1.2 billion, with its share price increasing by 11% to HK$34.16 from an initial price of HK$30.75 [7] - Other companies, such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL), also saw significant financial success, raising over $4.6 billion and experiencing a 12.5% surge in share price [7]

Lithium Americas (LAC) stock soared in premarket trading Wednesday morning, gaining more than 90% after news reports that the Trump administration is looking to take a stake in the operator of what is set to be the largest lithium mine in the country. On Tuesday evening, Reuters reported that the administration is seeking a stake of up to 10% in Vancouver, British Columbia-based Lithium Americas as part of renegotiations for a $2.26 billion loan the company received from the Department of Energy for its T ...

Core Viewpoint - Chery Automobile, the second-largest carmaker in China by volume, is seeking to raise up to HK$9.14 billion (US$1.2 billion) through a Hong Kong stock offering, capitalizing on strong investor interest in the electric vehicle (EV) sector [1]. Group 1: IPO Details - Chery plans to offer 297.4 million shares priced between HK$27.75 and HK$30.75, with the final price to be determined on September 23 [2]. - Approximately 10% of the H-share offering will be allocated to the public, while the remainder is reserved for institutional investors [3]. - Retail investors can subscribe to shares starting Wednesday, with the offer closing on Monday, and trading expected to commence on September 25 [3]. Group 2: Market Context - The IPO timing aligns with renewed global investor interest in the Chinese EV supply chain, highlighted by significant stock price increases of other EV-related companies [5]. - Contemporary Amperex Technology's shares surged 60.4% following its US$4.6 billion IPO, and Hesai Group's shares rose 10% on debut after raising US$531 million [5]. Group 3: Company Performance and Outlook - Chery ranked second in sales among Chinese domestic car companies in 2023 and 2024, with strong annual growth expected in emerging markets from 2025 to 2030 [6]. - Revenue from overseas markets reached 26.29 billion yuan in the first three months of this year, accounting for 38.5% of total revenue [7]. - The company faces challenges from US-China trade tensions and high competition in both domestic and international markets [6].

Core Insights - The Automotive MMI has decreased by 2.3%, reflecting challenges in the US automotive market due to rising costs and potential metal supply shortages [1] - The US government has increased metal tariffs from 25% to 50% on various imports, including automotive-grade steel and aluminum, significantly impacting vehicle production costs [2] - The 25% steel tariff could add up to $1,500 to the cost of a typical vehicle, with the doubling of tariffs leading to even higher expenses for automakers [2] - Domestic steel prices have also risen, affecting automakers even when sourcing "Made in America" steel, forcing companies to either absorb costs or increase vehicle prices [4] - Critical minerals for electric vehicles, such as lithium and rare earth elements, face supply risks, particularly after China halted exports of certain rare earth metals in early 2025 [5][6] - Automakers are seeking to secure more reliable sources for critical minerals, with companies like Lucid Group collaborating with US mining and refining firms to enhance domestic battery material production [7]

Market Overview - The S&P 500's equity risk premium has reached zero, indicating a potential bubble in the market [1] - Massive investments in data centers are reminiscent of the tech boom, with concerns about sustainability and reliance on a single client, OpenAI [2][3] Investment Strategy - The company is adopting a defensive stance in equity investments, acknowledging the risks associated with current market exuberance [4][3] - There is a cautionary approach towards tech stocks due to potential reversals in the Japanese carry trade, which could impact US tech investments [8][7] Japan's Economic Policy - Japan's current policy rate is approximately 0.5%, with expectations for a 25 basis point increase, which could reverse the carry trade [6][7] - An increase in Japanese interest rates may negatively affect US tech stocks, as Japanese investors may withdraw funds from the US [8] China Market Insights - The company has allocated about 10% of its funds to China, indicating a belief in the potential for growth despite being underweight in the US [10] - Chinese stocks are considered cheap, and the government is showing a willingness to support rising share prices, which is crucial for investment [11][12] Housing Market in China - The Chinese housing market requires a clearing of excess capacity, and while lower interest rates may help, significant government intervention may be necessary [17][19] - The government could potentially buy excess housing for social purposes, which would significantly impact the market [19] Electric Vehicle (EV) Sector in China - The company is currently avoiding investments in the Chinese EV sector due to concerns about excess capacity and market consolidation [20][22] - There is an expectation of consolidation in the automobile market, and the company is looking for potential acquisition targets among struggling firms [21][22]

EVE Energy Research Summary Company Overview - **Company Name**: EVE Energy - **Ticker**: 300014.SZ - **Industry**: Technology (Battery Manufacturing) - **Established**: 2001 - **Products**: Lithium primary batteries, lithium polymer batteries, lithium-ion batteries for EV, energy storage, and consumer electronics [12][14] Key Financial Highlights - **2Q25 Revenue**: CNY 15.4 billion, up 25% y-y and 20% q-q, driven by EV and ESS battery volume growth [1][15] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Improved by 2.2pp y-y to 17.5%, attributed to better margins in the EV battery segment [1][15] - **Net Profit**: Declined by 53% y-y to CNY 503 million due to one-off expenses including share-based compensation of CNY 579 million and impairment of ~CNY 150 million [1][15] - **1H25 Revenue Growth**: EV batteries up 42% y-y to CNY 12.7 billion; ESS batteries up 32% y-y to CNY 10.3 billion [1] Future Projections - **2025 Shipment Growth**: Expected 65% y-y growth in EV battery shipments to 50GWh and 49% y-y growth in ESS battery shipments to 75GWh [2] - **2026 Shipment Growth**: Anticipated 35% y-y growth for EV batteries to 68GWh and 30% y-y growth for ESS batteries [2] - **Revenue Forecasts**: FY25-27 revenue forecasts raised by 4-11% due to higher battery shipments [3] Valuation and Target Price - **Target Price**: Increased to CNY 62, implying a 29% upside from the current price of CNY 48.07 [5][26] - **Valuation Methodology**: Based on a Sum-of-the-Parts (SoTP) approach, with 20x 2026F P/E for EV and ESS segments and 15x for consumer batteries [3][18] - **Current P/E Ratio**: 14.7x FY26F [3] Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: 1. Potential oversupply in the EV battery market due to aggressive capacity expansion [13][19] 2. Increased price competition from domestic and global battery manufacturers [13][19] 3. Stricter regulations on the e-cigarette market in China [13][19] ESG Considerations - EVE Energy plays a significant role in promoting electrification in the automotive industry and enhancing the utilization of renewable energy through its battery products [14] Additional Financial Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: USD 13.7 billion [6] - **Dividend Yield**: Expected to increase from 1.0% in FY24 to 2.2% in FY27 [4] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Projected to improve from 11.3% in FY24 to 17.7% in FY27 [4] Conclusion EVE Energy is positioned for significant growth in the EV and ESS battery markets, supported by strong revenue growth and improved margins. However, the company faces risks related to market competition and regulatory challenges. The revised target price reflects a positive outlook based on anticipated shipment growth and improved financial performance.

Partnerships - GM is partnering with Redwood Materials to utilize EV batteries for powering data centers [1] Technology and Innovation - The collaboration focuses on repurposing EV batteries, potentially extending their lifespan and reducing waste [1]

Industry Overview - The U.S. automotive industry is expected to see a rise in vehicle costs due to tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration, particularly a 25% duty on non-American content, which will affect pricing across the board [1][7] - Automakers heavily rely on global imports of key materials such as graphite, lithium, and semiconductors, making the industry vulnerable to disruptions caused by tariffs [2][7] Company Specifics - Lucid Group is actively working to localize its supply chain to mitigate costs, particularly focusing on battery material sourcing through a new deal with Graphite One for U.S.-processed graphite [3][7] - The partnership with Panasonic for battery production will be delayed until at least 2026, impacting Lucid's ability to offset tariff burdens in the short term [3][7] - Over the past year, Lucid's shares have declined by 38.6%, significantly underperforming the industry average decline of 2.3% [5]

Production & Expansion - Panasonic aims for full production at its DeSoto, Kansas facility this year, with sales already underway [2] - The company invested $4 billion in the DeSoto facility and is eligible for nearly $7 billion in incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act [15] - Panasonic plans to localize 50% of its supply chain within North America by 2030 to enhance resilience [19] Customer & Market Strategy - Panasonic is diversifying its customer base beyond Tesla to include other established OEMs and startups [8][9] - The company is "very bullish" and not currently experiencing a slowdown in orders from key customers [6] - Panasonic acknowledges the hybrid market's continued relevance alongside EV growth, with EV sales rising by 114% [23] Location & Partnership - Kansas was chosen for its available workforce, infrastructure, and the supportive attitude of state officials [11][12] - Panasonic collaborated with local schools and community colleges to create curriculums to ensure a skilled workforce [14] Supply Chain - Panasonic is actively working to diversify its supply chain to ensure resilience, addressing issues highlighted during COVID-19 [18][20] - The refining process for raw materials is a key focus to ensure the quality needed for battery production [21] Future Outlook - Panasonic's next priority after the DeSoto facility reaches smooth operation is yet to be determined (TBD), focusing on producing quality batteries [22] - The company is hopeful that the 45X manufacturing credit will remain intact, supporting job creation and technology advancement in the US [17]

Battery Production & Technology - Tesla is completing a new LFP battery cell factory in Sparks, Nevada [1] - The factory will produce lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells, which are safer and more affordable [1] Strategic Importance - Elon Musk calls the facility "vital to America," highlighting its importance to domestic battery production [1] - The initiative represents a major step toward U S energy independence [1]