We came across a bullish thesis on Fair Isaac Corporation on Rebound Capital’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on FICO. Fair Isaac Corporation's share was trading at $1,620.14 as of October 16th. FICO’s trailing and forward P/E were 69.82 and 50.51 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. FICO, the company behind the ubiquitous FICO Score, has become a cornerstone of the U.S. financial system through decades of innovation, strategic partnerships, and regulatory entrenchment ...

Core Insights - Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is leveraging an innovative portfolio to maintain its leadership in the financial services industry, recently introducing the FICO Foundation Model for Financial Services, which includes the FICO Focused Language Model (FLM) and the FICO Focused Sequence Model (FSM) aimed at reducing errors and improving accuracy [1][2] Product Innovation - The new models are designed to be smaller, cost-effective, and auditable, trained on curated financial data, enhancing task-specific transparency and improving fraud detection and risk assessment [2] - Both models incorporate patented Trust Scores, facilitating responsible AI adoption with configurable risk thresholds, showcasing FICO's commitment to practical and trustworthy GenAI solutions for financial institutions [2][3] AI Platform Leadership - The FICO Platform serves as the cornerstone of the company's AI expansion, enabling real-time decision-making at scale and transforming operational processes by optimizing consumer interactions and improving efficiency [4] - Forrester has recognized the FICO Platform as the leader in AI decisioning platforms for the fourth consecutive time, highlighting its innovation and value delivery to clients [5] Strategic Partnerships - FICO's collaboration with Amazon Web Services (AWS) enhances its AI capabilities, with a new agreement to expand global access to AI-driven decision workflows via the FICO Platform, starting with the FICO Decision Modeler in AWS Marketplace [6] - The partnership with Cognizant aims to launch a cloud-based real-time payment fraud prevention solution powered by FICO Falcon Fraud Manager, enhancing security and fraud detection for clients across various industries [7] - FICO's partnership with Fujitsu focuses on bringing Omni-Channel Engagement Capabilities to Japan, facilitating digital transformation for Japanese financial services firms through comprehensive service implementation [8][9] Financial Outlook - For fiscal 2025, FICO anticipates revenues of $1.98 billion, with non-GAAP earnings projected at $29.15 per share, driven by a strong portfolio and expanding clientele [10]

Core Business Strength - Fair Isaac's primary business, credit scoring, remains highly profitable, with over 90% of top U.S. lenders utilizing the FICO score, giving it near-monopoly status [4][6] - In Q3 2025, revenue from the scoring business grew by 34% year over year, with an impressive operating margin of 88%, indicating a strong business model [5][6] - The company benefits from significant pricing power, as lenders rely on FICO scores for risk assessments, making it difficult to switch to alternatives without facing compliance issues [6][7] Software Business Expansion - Fair Isaac is diversifying into software solutions, particularly through its cloud-based FICO Platform, which automates various financial decision-making processes [9][10] - The platform opportunity is still in early stages, with less than half of the top 300 global financial institutions currently engaged, suggesting substantial growth potential [10] - Traditional non-platform software continues to generate solid cash flow, with a gradual transition expected towards platform-based solutions as customer needs evolve [11] Global Market Opportunities - Fair Isaac is looking to expand its presence in emerging markets, where demand for credit analytics is increasing as consumer lending systems mature [12][13] - The company's scoring system can be quickly implemented in countries with incomplete credit data, allowing for expansion beyond mature markets [13] - With a long-term presence in 40 countries, Fair Isaac's global push could diversify revenue streams and reduce reliance on the U.S. credit cycle [14] Investment Implications - Fair Isaac is at a pivotal point, with its legacy FICO Score driving significant revenue while new analytics platforms and global expansion present additional growth opportunities [15] - Long-term investors may view Fair Isaac as a reliable earnings engine and an evolving growth business, making it a stock worth monitoring [15]