GB200(Blackwell)

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英伟达(小会):2026 年目标相对谨慎,2030 年市场达到 3-4 万亿
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 04:49
Core Insights - The company has received partial H20 export licenses for the Chinese market, with expectations of shipping between $2 billion to $5 billion once geopolitical tensions ease [4][6] - The long-term market target for 2030 is set at $3-4 trillion in annual spending for data center infrastructure, driven by the growth of "AI factories," with the company's products expected to capture 60-70% of this market [3][5] - The company maintains a cautious outlook for the 2026 market target, while expressing confidence in achieving healthy growth towards the 2030 goal [5] Financial and Operational Data - The overall market capital expenditure is projected to reach $600 billion, encompassing major cloud service providers and broader market segments, including computing and networking equipment [2] - The company aims for a gross margin of over 75%, unaffected by the Chinese market situation, with the H20 product's gross margin aligning with the company's average [2][5] - Operating expenses are expected to remain in the range of 35-40%, reflecting rapid revenue growth [2] Market Size and Growth Expectations - The anticipated annual spending for data center infrastructure by 2030 is revised upwards to $3-4 trillion, factoring in the increasing expenditures for "AI factories" [2][5] - The demand for AI infrastructure is projected to be robust, with each 1 GW of AI factory construction corresponding to approximately $50 billion in total AI infrastructure spending [5] Product and Technology - The company has completed the design and tape-out of the Rubin product, with plans for mass production next year [3][5] - There is a strong demand for the GB200 (Blackwell) product, with significant performance improvements noted [5] - The debate over the superiority of ASIC versus GPU for training and inference is diminishing, as both markets show substantial demand [5] Supply Chain and Capacity - Current demand is expected to exceed supply throughout the year, with uncertainty regarding when supply and demand will reach equilibrium [3] - The company is actively working with the supply chain to increase production capacity to meet growing demand [5] China Market - The company has received export licenses for H20 products to certain customers in China, indicating market demand [4] - The potential impact of geopolitical issues on the supply chain is acknowledged, with the need for resolution to facilitate normal shipping operations [6]