5 February 2026 UBS Global I/O Semiconductors Advanced packaging: accelerating expansion to support new Cloud AI product cycle in 2026-27 Faster industry CoWoS capacity expansion Based on our analysis, we raise our estimate of the industry's CoWoS capacity to 150kwpm by the end of 2026E, from 135kwpm previously, up from 90kwpm at the end of 2025. The more aggressive capacity expansion reflects the strength of new cloud AI products ramping from H226E into 2027E, including Nvidia's Rubin, Google's TPU v8AX an ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 由 于 内 存 厂 商 集 中 精 力 生 产 HBM ， 导 致 通 用 内 存 短 缺 ， 这 也 增 强 了 内 存 企 业 的 议 价 能 力 。 据 DRAMeXchange数据显示，消费级DRAM价格从去年1月的1.35美元飙升至今年1月的11.5美元， 涨幅高达750%。同期，NAND闪存价格也从2.18美元上涨至9.46美元。英伟达CEO黄仁勋上月31 日与台湾供应链高管共进晚餐后表示："今年我们需要大量的内存。如此高的需求将给整个供应链 带来挑战。" 存储半导体市场格局的转变也体现在三星电子和SK海力士的业绩展望中。全球投资银行摩根士丹 利预测，三星电子今年的营业利润将达到245万亿韩元，SK海力士将达到179万亿韩元。与去年的 43.6万亿韩元和47.2万亿韩元相比，分别增长了四到五倍。摩根士丹利指出："到2026年，两家公 司都将面临前所未有的供应限制，今年的存储器供应已全部售罄。与以往相比，资本效率更高，并 已建立起高利润率的结构。"韩国科学技术院（KAIST）教授金正浩表示："随着存储半导体产品 逐渐走向定制化，拥有卓越设计和生产能力的韩国本 ...

①阿里平头哥上线自研高端AI芯片"真武810E"，性能对标英伟达H20。知情人士透露，阿里正考虑将未 来三年投入到AI基建与云计算上的3800亿元提升至4800亿元。 格隆汇1月30日｜今日上午，半导体板块盘中拉升，成份股普冉股份、中微半导、芯原股份分别涨 9.88%、9.21%和6.97%，带动科创芯片设计ETF天弘(589070)标的指数上演V型拉升，从早盘深跌2%翻 红上涨1%，盘中振幅高达3%，该ETF上个交易日大幅"吸金"超6200万元。 科创芯片设计ETF天弘(589070)专注产业"大脑"环节，芯片设计行业占比96%，涵盖 CPU、GPU、AI 芯 片、存储芯片、模拟芯片等，完整覆盖芯片设计产业链，前十大成分股涵盖寒武纪(AI训练芯片)、海光 信息(通用计算芯片)、澜起科技(内存接口芯片)、芯原股份(IP核)等AI算力体系核心企业，直接受益AI算 力爆发。 消息面上： ②黄仁勋透露下一代AI芯片Rubin需求"极其强劲"，正携手英特尔开发定制X86处理器，今年预增大幅 增长。他还警示，台积电未来十年产能扩充将面临严峻的能源挑战。 国信证券指出，受AI增量需求拉动，电子上游涨价品类不断增加，存储和 ...

1、国家主席习近平会见来华访问的英国首相斯塔默，国务院总理李强同斯塔默举行会谈。 中英双方达成一系列积极成果， 其中：双方致力于发展中英长 期稳定的全面战略伙伴关系； 双方欢迎成立中英金融工作组并召开首次会议；中方积极考虑对英国公民实施单方面免签政策；中方将威士忌酒进口关税 税率由10%降至5%。 2、 贵金属市场再度上演"过山车"行情。 1月29日，黄金、白银在亚市、欧市交易时段强势走高，现货黄金一度逼近5600美元/盎司关口，现货白银则连续 突破117、118、119、120和121美元/盎司五道关口。 纽约市场交易时段金银价格急转直下，现货黄金直线跳水跌近6%失守5100美元/盎司关口，现货白银 则跌超8%失守107美元/盎司， 但随后跌幅双双收窄。 3、 苹果公司2026财年第一季度营收同比增长16%至1437.6亿美元，其中iPhone收入852.7亿美元，稀释后每股收益为2.84美元，均创历史新高。 大中华区 营收255.3亿美元，超出市场预期；美国营收585.3亿美元，略低于市场预期。苹果董事会宣布派发每普通股股息0.26美元。 4、知情人士透露，马斯克旗下太空探索技术公司SpaceX和人工智能 ...

中国算力的增长新范式。 编辑｜栗子 在AI算力的深海里，沉默往往预示着更剧烈的爆发。 1月26日，距离国产AI算力企业天数智芯（09903.HK）登陆港股仅仅过去18天，这家在外界看来一贯低调的企业就对外抛出了一颗"重磅炸弹"：一份敢于 将超越国际巨头Hopper、Blackwell乃至Rubin的具体日期写进日历的四代架构路线图。 图片来源：天数智芯 更重要的是，这并非画饼。事实上，天数智芯2025年推出的天数天枢架构，在DeepSeek V3这种关键的大模型场景上，已经交出了实测性能领先英伟达 Hopper约20%的成绩单，成为首个实现对国际主流架构实质性超越的国产方案。 过去七年，天数智芯选择了一条最慢也最难的路：全栈自研、深耕行业、死磕落地。这种"笨功夫"在物理AI爆发的前夜，终于汇聚成了突破性的质变信 号。 当算力竞争从"量的堆砌"转向"质的较量"，天数智芯用超300家客户、超1000次部署的实战答卷证明：国产算力不再是实验室里的备选方案，而是在千亿 市场的浪潮中，正以"现在完成时"的成果为"将来时"的承诺背书，重构着属于中国算力的增长新范式。 1.算力进化的"中国路径" 通用GPU的底层架构是算力 ...

Group 1 - Major stock indices futures showed slight increases, with Dow futures up 0.08%, S&P 500 futures up 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.23% [1] - Meta's Q4 2025 earnings exceeded expectations, reporting revenue of $59.893 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of $22.768 billion, a 9% increase, leading to a stock rise of 7.81% [2] Group 2 - Microsoft's Q2 2026 earnings surpassed expectations, with Azure cloud revenue growing 38% year-over-year, but the growth rate slowed by 1 percentage point from the previous quarter. Capital expenditures reached $37.5 billion, a 66% increase, causing a stock decline of 5.77% [3] - Tesla's Q4 2025 revenue fell approximately 3% to $24.901 billion, marking the first annual revenue decline in the company's history. The company plans to halt production of Model S and Model X to make way for Optimus robot production, resulting in a stock increase of 2.92% [4] Group 3 - IBM reported Q4 2025 revenue of $19.69 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, with software revenue up 14% and consulting revenue up 3.4%. Free cash flow grew by 23%, leading to a stock increase of 7.88% [5] Group 4 - Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are reportedly negotiating to invest up to $60 billion in OpenAI, with Nvidia considering an investment of up to $30 billion, Microsoft planning under $10 billion, and Amazon potentially exceeding $10 billion [6] - Deutsche Bank's Frankfurt office was raided by prosecutors in connection with a money laundering investigation, resulting in a stock decline of 2.38% [7] Group 5 - Amazon confirmed a layoff of approximately 16,000 corporate positions, marking the second round of significant layoffs since October, totaling 30,000 positions, which is about 10% of its corporate and technology workforce [8] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced collaboration with Intel to develop a custom X86 processor, highlighting strong demand for Nvidia's next-generation product, Rubin, which is crucial for maintaining its leadership in the AI chip market [9]

Group 1: Market Performance - Major indices futures showed positive movement with Dow futures up 0.08%, S&P 500 futures up 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.23% [1] Group 2: Company Earnings Reports - Meta reported Q4 2025 revenue of $59.893 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations of $58.42 billion; net profit was $22.768 billion, up 9%, with diluted EPS of $8.88, up 11% [2] - Microsoft reported Q2 2026 revenue and profit above expectations, with Azure cloud revenue growing 38% year-over-year, matching analyst forecasts; however, growth slowed by 1 percentage point from the previous quarter [3] - IBM's Q4 2025 revenue was $19.69 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, with software revenue at $9.03 billion, up 14%, and consulting revenue at $5.35 billion, up 3.4%; free cash flow grew 23% to $7.55 billion [5] Group 3: Strategic Changes and Investments - Tesla announced plans to halt production of Model S and Model X to make way for Optimus robot production lines, despite a 3% year-over-year revenue decline to $24.901 billion in Q4 2025 [4] - Amazon confirmed layoffs of approximately 16,000 corporate positions, marking the second round of significant layoffs since October, totaling 30,000 positions or about 10% of its corporate and tech workforce [6] - Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are reportedly in discussions to invest up to $60 billion in OpenAI, with Nvidia considering up to $30 billion, Microsoft planning under $10 billion, and Amazon potentially exceeding $10 billion [7] Group 4: Regulatory Issues - Deutsche Bank's Frankfurt office was raided by German prosecutors in connection with a money laundering investigation, with the bank cooperating with authorities [8]

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is recognized as a significant player in the AI sector, with analysts highlighting its potential for growth despite recent underperformance compared to other AI stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Insights - Wolfe has reiterated NVIDIA's stock as "Outperform," indicating it as a favored investment for 2026, despite a 36% increase over the past year, which is lower than other AI-related companies [1]. - The underperformance of NVIDIA is attributed to three main factors: the delayed launch of the Blackwell chip, concerns regarding the sustainability of AI spending, and potential market share losses to custom AI solutions [2]. - Recent developments in NVIDIA's product roadmap, particularly the full ramp-up of Blackwell and the timely launch of Rubin, are expected to alleviate these concerns [2][3]. Group 2: Product Developments and Revenue Outlook - The Rubin chip is projected to provide a fivefold improvement in inference capabilities compared to Blackwell, enhancing NVIDIA's competitive edge in the AI market [3]. - Analysts forecast a potential upside of at least $40 billion to NVIDIA's consensus revenue for the calendar year 2026, with resumed shipments to China contributing to this growth [3]. - NVIDIA specializes in AI-driven solutions across various sectors, including data centers, self-driving vehicles, robotics, and cloud services, positioning itself as a leader in the AI industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is positioned as a prime growth stock for investment, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence (AI) advancements, despite recent underperformance compared to the S&P 500 [4][20]. Company Performance - Nvidia's stock is currently trading around $186 per share, with a market capitalization of $4.5 trillion [3][13]. - The company has experienced a decline in stock performance over the last three months, alongside other major tech stocks like Microsoft and Meta Platforms [4]. - Nvidia's revenues have shifted significantly from gaming and professional visualization to data centers, indicating a strategic pivot towards more lucrative markets [15][16]. Product Development - At CES, Nvidia announced that its new Rubin GPU architecture is in full production, with shipments expected in the second half of 2026 [6]. - The Rubin platform consists of six integrated chips designed for AI applications, offering significant improvements in performance, including a five-fold increase in inference power and 3.5 times the training power compared to the previous Blackwell architecture [7][9]. - The Rubin GPU features 60% more transistors than Blackwell, continuing the trend of Moore's Law while also addressing AI workload bottlenecks through its integrated design [10]. Competitive Advantage - Nvidia's ability to innovate rapidly allows it to maintain high profit margins, with the company converting approximately 70 cents of every dollar in sales into gross profit [17]. - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.9 based on trailing earnings, but a more favorable 24.4 based on analysts' estimates for fiscal 2027, suggesting potential for significant earnings growth [18]. Investment Thesis - Nvidia is characterized as a growth stock that is not only maintaining its margins but also rapidly growing earnings, making it an attractive investment opportunity [19][20]. - The upcoming impact of the Rubin architecture is expected to enhance Nvidia's financial performance in the near future, positioning it as a compelling option for investors looking to allocate funds into AI-related stocks [20].

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor market is expected to be dominated by AI, particularly in the data center sector, while demand for consumer electronics like PCs and smartphones remains stagnant [2][3]. Group 1: NVIDIA and AI - NVIDIA continues to emphasize its leadership in AI, with plans to launch the new product "Rubin" in 2026, potentially priced between $100,000 and $120,000 [4][6]. - The company is focusing on "physical AI" applications, which are essential for real-world implementations such as autonomous driving and robotics [6]. Group 2: TSMC's Market Position - TSMC's market share in the foundry business is projected to exceed 60% in 2024 and possibly 70% in 2025, maintaining its dominance in advanced process technologies [7]. - TSMC has begun mass production of 2nm technology, with Apple expected to be its first major customer [7]. Group 3: Intel's Manufacturing Challenges - Intel's manufacturing division is facing significant financial losses, with a reported $20 billion loss in the manufacturing sector for the fiscal year 2024, raising concerns about its long-term viability [8]. - Discussions about potential funding and management for Intel's manufacturing operations are ongoing, but no concrete plans have emerged [8]. Group 4: Semiconductor Market Growth - The global semiconductor market is forecasted to grow from $772.2 billion in 2025 to $975.5 billion in 2026, translating to approximately 151.2 trillion yen [11]. - Japan's semiconductor industry is at risk of declining market share, potentially falling below 5% due to rapid global market growth driven by AI [11]. Group 5: DRAM Market Dynamics - The DRAM market is experiencing volatility due to increased demand from AI applications, with contract prices rising sharply [16]. - There are concerns that aggressive investments in DRAM production could lead to a market downturn in the latter half of 2026 [16]. Group 6: Emerging Competitors - Chinese power device manufacturers are gaining competitiveness, with a significant portion of the market share in power devices expected to shift towards them [17]. - The potential for oversupply in the power device market is a risk that needs monitoring as demand dynamics evolve [17]. Group 7: Nexperia's Market Position - Nexperia holds a 20% market share in the small signal transistor market, with over 50% of its revenue coming from the automotive sector, indicating potential vulnerabilities [19]. Group 8: TSMC's Expansion in Japan - TSMC's expansion in Japan is becoming increasingly important, with plans to introduce advanced process nodes in its facilities, despite current underutilization of existing capacity [20].