在AI的狂热浪潮中，英伟达的股价似乎也遵循着某种季节性的"秋收冬藏"。 据追风交易台消息，高盛在8月24日发布的报告中提出一个战术性谨慎观点：尽管其对英伟达的长期增 长前景"非常看好"，但基于历史交易模式分析，这家芯片巨头的股价在未来几个月可能难以跑赢大盘。 该行称，英伟达股价表现呈现出一种规律性，即在上半年因明确的利好数据而上涨，但在下半年因缺乏 新的硬性催化剂而承压。比如其股价在2024年上半年飙升149%，下半年仅上涨12%。 分析师认为，在没有新的、足以推动盈利预期上调的量化数据点出现之前，市场对远期（即2027年）发 展方向的不确定性将在2025年底前压制股价趋势，这与2023年和2024年下半年的交易模式相似。 对于投资者而言，这意味着英伟达可能正在进入一个"AI之秋"的战术性盘整期。高盛指出，从现在到 2026年1月超大规模计算客户提供正式资本支出指引之前，市场将密切关注三大潜在驱动因素：10月份 超大规模计算客户的任何量化评论、公司对下一代"Rubin"平台推出时间的说明，以及关于中国业务和 美国出口管制的进一步明确信息。 不过，高盛强调这仅是短期战术判断。报告重申，基于超大规模计算客户积极的 ...

24 August 2025 | 6:15PM EDT +1(212)357-6369 | david.balaban@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Americas Technology: Semiconductors: Trading the "AI Autumn" - Our thoughts on tactical stock performance into year end Bottom line - We provide our thoughts on Nvidia's tactical stock performance heading into year end, ahead of the company's earnings report on August 27. To be clear, we remain very bullish on Nvidia's prospects for driving outsized growth in 2026, based on positive hyperscaler CapEx commentary and th ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来 源 ：内容来自 cnbc 。 英伟达（Nvidia）首席执行官黄仁勋周五在访问中国台湾时，对台积电大加赞扬，并表示任何想要 入股这家公司的人都"非常聪明"。 在此之前，美国政府曾表示有意收购科技公司股份，特别是那些根据美国《芯片法案》获得资助的 公司。 黄仁勋表示，他此行访问中国台湾的主要目的是感谢台积电团队为英伟达下一代人工智能芯片平台 Rubin 所做的努力。当被问及华盛顿是否会入股台积电时，他做出了上述回应。 黄仁勋说："首先，我认为台积电是人类史上最伟大的公司之一，任何想购买台积电股票的人都是 非常聪明的人。" 他还透露，台积电正在为英伟达生产六款新产品，包括一款新的中央处理器（用于计算的硬件组 件）和一款新的图形处理器（用于高级计算，特别是人工智能）。 本周早些时候，路透社曾报道称，美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）正考虑以股 权作为交换，向美光（Micron）、台积电和三星（Samsung）等公司提供《芯片法案》资金。 2022年通过、并得到两党支持的《芯片法案》旨在通过向在美国扩大生产的芯片制造商提供赠款 和贷款，以振兴美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics is set to begin mass production of its sixth-generation high bandwidth memory (HBM4) by the end of the year, following successful reliability tests, which is seen as a positive affirmation of Chairman Lee Jae-Yong's efforts in the AI semiconductor sector [2][3]. Group 1: HBM4 Production and Market Dynamics - Samsung delivered HBM4 samples to NVIDIA, which have passed initial testing and are entering the pre-production phase, with mass production expected in November or December if successful [2][3]. - HBM4 will be utilized in NVIDIA's next-generation AI accelerator, Rubin, and Samsung aims to close the gap with SK Hynix, which has already begun mass production of HBM4 [3][4]. - Samsung's HBM3E products are reportedly priced 20% to 30% lower than those from SK Hynix, which may influence NVIDIA's negotiations regarding HBM pricing [3][4]. Group 2: Market Share and Future Projections - Samsung's market share in the HBM sector has significantly dropped to 17% from 41% year-on-year, while SK Hynix's share increased from 55% to 62% [4]. - Financial analysts predict that Samsung's HBM sales could double next year, potentially leading to substantial investments in U.S. semiconductor facilities [4][8]. - The HBM market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 30% by 2030, driven by significant investments from major cloud computing companies in AI infrastructure [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - SK Hynix is currently the exclusive supplier of HBM3E to NVIDIA and has initiated the certification process for its HBM4 samples [5][6]. - The competition in the HBM market is intensifying, with Samsung and SK Hynix both preparing for mass production of HBM4, while Micron aims to ramp up its HBM4 capacity in collaboration with TSMC [6][9]. - The pricing of HBM4 is projected to be significantly higher than HBM3E, with estimates suggesting a price increase of 60% to 70% due to production complexities [9][10].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [1] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the potential of AI glasses, particularly focusing on the Meta ecosystem and its upcoming high-end smart glasses, Celeste, which is expected to exceed expectations [10][12] - Apple is making significant strides in AI, with plans to launch a desktop AI virtual companion robot and expand into home security systems, which could enhance its market position [15][18] - Tencent's AI initiatives are driving substantial revenue growth, with a reported total revenue of 364.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase [24][26] Summary by Sections AI Glasses and Meta Ecosystem - Meta Connect 2025 is set to showcase high-end smart glasses, Celeste, and innovations in AI interaction through muscle-sensing wristbands [12][13] - The Celeste glasses feature a unique single-eye full-color display and are expected to revolutionize AR interaction [13] - Meta is also developing a smartwatch in collaboration with domestic manufacturers, further expanding its metaverse vision [14] Apple's AI Developments - Apple is developing a desktop robot that can interact with users and manage daily tasks, alongside a new version of Siri [15][17] - The company announced a $100 billion investment plan in the U.S., which is expected to enhance its competitive edge by reducing production costs [18][19] - Apple's Q3 2025 revenue reached $94 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year, driven by strong iPhone and service sales [21][23] Tencent's Performance - Tencent's total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 364.5 billion yuan, with a 14% year-on-year growth, showcasing strong resilience and technological drive [24][26] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance its WeChat and gaming services, resulting in significant user growth and revenue increases [27][28] PCB and AI Chip Packaging - CoWoP technology is expected to reduce costs by 30%-50% and improve efficiency in PCB production, responding quickly to the rising demand for AI devices [30][35] - The transition from CoWoS to CoWoP packaging is anticipated to create new technical barriers and redefine AI hardware standards [32][36] Panel Industry Trends - The demand for panels is slowing, with price adjustments expected; however, leading companies are showing resilience [38][39] - TrendForce predicts a stabilization in panel prices, with some sizes expected to maintain or slightly decrease in price [41]

Group 1: Apple and AI Products - Apple plans to enhance its competitiveness in the AI sector with new devices, including robots, an upgraded Siri, smart speakers with displays, and home security cameras [2] - The core hardware of Apple's AI strategy is a desktop robot positioned as a "virtual companion," expected to launch in 2027 [2] Group 2: Alibaba's Business Structure - Alibaba has restructured its business units, with Taotian Group now being part of the China E-commerce Group alongside Ele.me and Fliggy, indicating a clearer division and enhanced independence among its business units [2] Group 3: Douyin E-commerce Integration - Douyin E-commerce is integrating its instant retail and e-commerce operations to enhance product and fulfillment capabilities, aiming to improve merchant operational efficiency and user experience [3] Group 4: Google's Investment in Oklahoma - Google announced a $9 billion investment in Oklahoma over the next two years to support the construction of new data centers and expand existing facilities [4] Group 5: ByteDance's Open Source Framework - ByteDance's Seed team has released and open-sourced the VeOmni framework, which significantly reduces engineering overhead and improves training efficiency for multimodal models [4] Group 6: Zhiyuan Robotics' New Platform - Zhiyuan Robotics launched the Genie Envisioner platform, integrating future frame prediction, strategy learning, and simulation evaluation into a unified model for robotic control [5] Group 7: DJI's Response to Restructuring Rumors - DJI refuted claims of significant internal restructuring in its sales department, asserting that the reports contained serious factual inaccuracies [8] Group 8: Tencent's Chip Resource Management - Tencent management stated that the company has sufficient chips for training and model upgrades, and plans to improve software to enhance inference efficiency [9] Group 9: Zhaowei Electromechanical's Investment in Thailand - Zhaowei Electromechanical announced a plan to invest up to $100 million in establishing a new production base in Thailand to enhance its international competitiveness [10] Group 10: Junsheng Electronics' Robotics Collaboration - Junsheng Electronics has signed cooperation agreements with domestic and international robotics manufacturers to provide key components and integrated solutions for humanoid robots [11] Group 11: Nvidia's GPU Chip Rubin - Nvidia denied reports of delays in the production of its next-generation GPU chip, Rubin, which is expected to be released on schedule [12] Group 12: Cambricon's Stock Trading Clarification - Cambricon clarified that recent market rumors regarding large orders and revenue forecasts were misleading and not based on factual information [13] Group 13: Nanjing's Price Increase in Storage Testing - Nanjing's storage testing company announced a price increase of 5% to 18% due to rising costs, while maintaining a stable business outlook [14] Group 14: Zhengzhou's Silicon Wafer Project Update - Zhengzhou's 12-inch silicon wafer project is on track for completion by the end of September, with plans to produce 100,000 wafers monthly after full operation [15] Group 15: Yiswei Materials' IPO Approval - Yiswei Materials' IPO application has been approved, marking it as the first unprofitable company to receive approval under new regulations [16] Group 16: Chipsea Technology's H-Share Listing Plan - Chipsea Technology plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its international strategy and competitiveness [17] Group 17: Kanda New Materials' Acquisition - Kanda New Materials intends to acquire a 51% stake in Zhongke Huami for 275 million yuan to expand its semiconductor integrated circuit capabilities [18] Group 18: Didi's Strategic Investment in New Stone - Didi announced a strategic investment in New Stone Technology, which has recently expanded its autonomous vehicle deployment significantly [19]

Summary of TSMC's CoWoS and Advanced Packaging Outlook Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - **Industry**: Semiconductor, specifically focusing on advanced packaging technologies such as CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) and CoPoS (Chip-in-Panel-on-Substrate) Key Points and Arguments CoWoS Capacity and Growth Forecast - TSMC's total CoWoS capacity is projected to reach **675k** wafers per month (wpm) by the end of **2025**, with a forecast of **1.08 million** wpm by the end of **2026**, representing a **61%** year-over-year (YoY) growth [5][62] - The company anticipates further expansion to **130k** wpm by the end of **2027** [5][13] - CoWoS capacity has seen significant growth, with a **100%** YoY increase noted in early **2024** [11] Utilization Rate and Production Adjustments - TSMC's CoWoS utilization rate (UTR) is expected to be in the low **90s** in **1H26**, with a return to full capacity anticipated in **2H26** as new projects enter mass production [5][57] - Adjustments in nVidia's orders have led to a production mismatch, impacting the UTR and causing some expansion timelines to shift [5][50] Customer Allocation and Market Dynamics - nVidia is projected to maintain a **50.1%** market share in CoWoS capacity allocation for **2026**, slightly down from **51.4%** in **2025** [6][62] - Broadcom is expected to become the second-largest customer, with an allocation of **187k** wpm, benefiting from multiple projects entering mass production [62] Advanced Packaging Technologies - TSMC is focusing on several advanced packaging technologies, including CoWoS, CoPoS, and WMCM (Wafer-level Multiple-Chip Module), with CoPoS expected to enter high-volume production by **2028** [5][21][35] - CoWoS has evolved from a niche solution to a critical component in AI and high-performance computing (HPC), driven by the demand for larger memory bandwidth [10] Strategic Partnerships and Outsourcing - TSMC is collaborating with OSAT partners like ASE and SPIL to manage the increasing demand for CoWoS, with expectations that outsourcing will accelerate in **2026** and **2027** [40][42] - The company has invested significantly in expanding its advanced packaging capabilities, including a **US$100 billion** investment in the U.S. for new fabs and R&D centers [46] Challenges and Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry faces challenges such as production bottlenecks and mismatches between upstream and downstream production, which TSMC is actively addressing [52] - The demand for AI-related products is expected to remain strong, with TSMC's management indicating improved demand compared to previous forecasts [52] Conclusion - TSMC is positioned as a leader in the advanced packaging sector, with aggressive expansion plans and a strong customer base, particularly in the AI and HPC markets. The company's strategic partnerships and investments are expected to support its growth trajectory in the coming years [7][46]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights potential delays in the production of NVIDIA's next-generation GPU chip, Rubin, due to redesign efforts to compete with AMD's upcoming MI450 [2][3] - Rubin was initially scheduled for mass production by the end of 2025 and sales to begin in early 2026, but the likelihood of delays is considered high by analysts [2] - The first version of Rubin completed tape out at the end of June, but NVIDIA is currently undergoing redesign, with the next tape out expected by the end of September or October [2] Group 2 - Nomad Semi analyst Moore Morris indicates that Rubin will replace NVIDIA's current Blackwell series, with projected shipments of 750,000 units in Q1 2025, increasing to 1.2 million in Q2, and further rising to 1.5 million and 1.6 million in Q3 and Q4 respectively [3] - Despite the anticipated growth of AMD and Broadcom in TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging capacity, NVIDIA is expected to maintain a dominant market share of 51.4% in 2025, with AMD and Broadcom at 16.2% and 7.7% respectively [3] - By 2026, market share estimates suggest a slight decline for NVIDIA to 50.1%, while Broadcom and AMD's shares are projected to rise to 17.4% and 9.2% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has experienced solid growth despite temporary challenges from the Chinese export ban, with a year-to-date stock increase of approximately 30% following a recent dip after Q2 earnings results [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - AMD's overall revenue increased by 32% to $7.69 billion in Q2, but adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell by 30% to $0.48, missing analyst expectations [8] - The data center segment, AMD's primary growth driver, saw a revenue increase of 14% to $3.2 billion, impacted by the inability to sell MI308 GPUs in China [3][8] - The client and gaming segment experienced a significant revenue surge of 69% to $3.6 billion, driven by strong CPU share gains and demand for new gaming GPUs [6] - The embedded segment reported a 4% revenue decline to $824 million, with expectations for sequential growth in the second half of the year [7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - AMD's data center revenue would have grown approximately 39% if not for the $700 million negative impact from the Chinese export restrictions [10] - The company is seeing increasing adoption of its MI300 and MI325 GPUs, with seven out of ten top model builders and AI companies utilizing its products [4] - AMD's CPUs are gaining market share in the server space, driven by rising demand for cloud and on-premises computing and investments in AI infrastructure [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - AMD projects Q3 revenue growth of 28% to $8.7 billion, excluding potential revenue from MI308 shipments to China [8] - The company is on track to introduce its M400 chip, aiming to compete with Nvidia's next-generation Rubin chip, indicating future growth potential in the AI inference market [10][11] - The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27.5 times 2026 analyst estimates, suggesting potential upside if AMD becomes a significant player in the AI inference market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The competition for TSMC's CoWoS capacity is intensifying as major tech companies, particularly NVIDIA, are vying for advanced packaging technology to support their AI strategies. [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - Global demand for CoWoS is projected to reach 1 million wafers by 2026, indicating a robust growth of 40% to 50% in the cloud AI semiconductor market. [1] - NVIDIA is expected to consume 595,000 wafers, capturing approximately 60% of the total global demand. [2][4] - The capital expenditure of cloud service providers (CSPs) is rising, with Google increasing its 2025 budget from $75 billion to $85 billion, further accelerating investments in 2026. [1][5] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - NVIDIA's total demand for CoWoS wafers is forecasted at 595,000, with 515,000 wafers sourced from TSMC, primarily for its next-generation Rubin architecture chips. [2][4] - AMD is projected to secure 105,000 wafers, representing about 11% of the market share, with 80,000 wafers produced by TSMC for its MI355 and MI400 series AI accelerators. [2][4] - Broadcom is anticipated to demand 150,000 wafers, accounting for 15% of the market, mainly for custom chips for major clients like Google and Meta. [2][4] Group 3: Financial Implications for TSMC - TSMC's CoWoS monthly capacity is expected to increase significantly from 32,000 wafers in 2024 to 93,000 wafers by the end of 2026, driven by strong customer demand. [7] - AI-related revenue is projected to constitute 25% of TSMC's total revenue by 2025, positioning the company as a key beneficiary in the ongoing AI wave. [7]