Group 1 - Nvidia's Rubin is gradually increasing orders, and the demand for ASICs is accelerating, indicating that Q布 demand is expected to exceed expectations [1] - The company is simultaneously advancing customer sampling and capacity expansion, which is likely to enhance its full industry chain layout in the future [1] - The EU GSR regulation is contributing significantly to incremental demand for the company [1]

财联社倾力打造王牌栏目《风口研报》，替您"扒一扒"市场含金量超高的研报、调研信息。以机构视 角，追踪研报和调研纪要细节里的"超预期"、"拐点"、"事件催化"和"价值洼地"。 ①英伟达Rubin逐步下单+Asic需求提速，Q布需求有望超预期，这家公司同步推进客户送样与产能扩充， 后续有望向上延伸完善全产业链布局；②欧盟GSR法规贡献显著增量需求，这家公司商用车视频监控+视 前言 觉AI产品力极强，海外业务毛利率维持在50%以上。 ...

华泰证券指出，不同于OpenAI严重依赖外部算力（英伟达）和云设施（微软），谷歌正在构建从芯片 （TPU v7p）到模型（Gemini 3.0）再到应用（搜索+Waymo）的完全自给自足的生态闭环。看好谷歌自 给自足"全栈式"AI 生态和能力，抢回主导权正当时。报告指出，这一闭环正在转化为实打实的财务回 报：TPU部署大幅降低推理成本，搜索市场份额企稳回升至90%以上，充沛的广告现金流为高强度的资 本开支（Capex）提供了充足弹药。长江证券也指出，同等算力规模的情况下，ASIC的光模块用量远超 GPU。若只对比谷歌和英伟达算力卡的数字：TPU v7的FP8精度算力估算为4614 TFLOPS，vs Rubin （2die）约16667 TFLOPS，推测TPU v7的1.6T模块配比约1:4.5，vs Rubin（2die）的1:5，换算一下，在 纸面算力相等的情况下TPU v7光模块用量是Rubin（2die）的3.3倍。换言之，若英伟达份额有所下降， 则ASIC或将取得更多份额，光模块板块增速更快，占整体Capex比例或将进一步提升。 数据显示，截至2025年10月31日，上证科创板100指数(0006 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant impact of the U.S. stock market's rise in technology stocks on the A-share computing power sector, leading to substantial gains in related stocks and ETFs [1][3] - The launch of the "Genesis Mission" by the U.S. government aims to leverage AI to transform scientific research and accelerate discoveries, indicating a strong governmental push towards AI integration in various sectors [3] - The cloud computing ETF Huatai (159273) saw a notable increase of over 3%, with trading volume exceeding 20 million yuan, reflecting investor confidence in the sector [1][3] Group 2 - NVIDIA reported a record revenue of $57.006 billion for Q3 2025, marking a 22% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 62% year-over-year increase, showcasing the robust growth of the AI industry [5] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure is expected to drive significant revenue growth, with projections indicating that NVIDIA's Blackwell and Rubin products could generate $500 billion in revenue from early 2025 to the end of 2026 [5] - The introduction of Google's Gemini 3 and Nano Banana Pro AI models is anticipated to further enhance demand for computing power, as these models demonstrate superior capabilities in various applications [6] Group 3 - The demand for optical modules is projected to increase significantly, with estimates for 2025-2027 indicating a need for 50 million, 75 million, and 100 million units respectively, driven by AI training and inference network bandwidth requirements [8] - The overall AI demand is accelerating, with cloud computing revenues exceeding expectations, and indicators such as remaining performance obligations and backlog orders suggesting sustained long-term revenue growth [7][8] - The cloud computing ETF Huatai (159273) is positioned to capture the growth opportunities in the AI-driven computing power market, covering a wide range of sectors including hardware, cloud services, and data center operations [8]

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 20 November 2025 Global Research UBS Global I/O Semiconductors Cloud AI: how tight could N3 foundry and CoWoS be in 2026? [ERRATUM] New analysis of N3 foundry supply-demand In this note, we set out our proprietary analysis of N3 foundry supply. Cloud AI accelerators including Nvidia's Rubin and ASICs like Google's TPUs and Amazon's Trainium are due to migrate from N4 to the N3 process in 2026, all to be carried out at TSMC. Our research in October highlighted TSMC' ...

Market Overview - A and H shares continued to be negatively impacted by the Federal Reserve's lower-than-expected interest rate cuts, with significant declines in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals [1] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90%, Shenzhen Component Index down 5.13%, and ChiNext Index down 6.15% [3] - Defensive sectors like banking, media, food and beverage, and defense showed relative resilience, while sectors like power equipment, basic chemicals, and steel experienced significant declines [1][3] Industry Dynamics - The pharmaceutical industry index fell 6.88%, with sub-sectors like chemical pharmaceuticals and bioproducts declining by 7.02% and 7.46% respectively [5] - Eli Lilly became the first global healthcare company to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion, driven by its GLP-1 weight loss drug contributing 55% of its revenue [7] - Moderna announced the termination of three mRNA projects and secured a $15 billion loan, focusing future efforts on oncology and rare diseases [7] - Innovative drug companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics reported significant revenue growth, with BeiGene's global revenue reaching $1 billion, up 51% year-on-year [8] Technology Sector - The technology sector faced significant adjustments, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping 7.18% [10] - Nvidia reported Q3 revenue of $57 billion, exceeding expectations, with data center revenue of $51.2 billion, up 66% year-on-year [17] - Google launched the Gemini 3 model, achieving breakthroughs in multi-modal understanding and reasoning capabilities, surpassing competitors [12] - Alibaba's AI application "Qianwen" quickly rose to the fourth position in the App Store rankings, aiming to become a personal AI assistant [13] Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are focusing on technological transformation and de-globalization, with an emphasis on AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] - The market is expected to enter a bottoming phase after two weeks of significant adjustments, with a long-term view of a structural bull market [1][3] - The focus is on identifying undervalued technology players within the overseas supply chain [2]

Ac t i o n | 20 Nov 2025 02:46:50 ET │ 19 pages NVIDIA Corp (NVDA.O) Estimate Changes — We revise FY27/FY28 sales by 19%/26% reflecting what we now expect to be a re-accelerated DC sales backed by better-than expected Blackwell and Rubin demand visibility. Though pushing down our FY27E/FY28E non-GAAP GM estimates to 75%/75.3% from prior 76%/76.1% respectively, our FY27/28 EPS estimates go up by 12%/19% to $8.10 and $10.08, respectively. We raise our TP to $270 on consistent 30x P/E times revised CY27 EPS po ...

Q&A NV 业绩再超预期，AI 后续投资怎么看？20251121 摘要 英伟达业绩超预期，收入指引乐观，预计 Q4 收入中位数为 650 亿美元， 环比增长 14%，显示 AI 基础设施投资持续强劲，但宏观经济不确定性 影响股价波动。 英伟达预估 2025-2026 年通过 Blackwell 和 Rubin 等产品实现 5,000 亿美元收入，并积极拓展中东数据中心等新项目，企业级 AI 和主权 AI 将推动 AI 基础设施投资。 AMD 预测数据中心 TAM 将从 2025 年的 2000 亿美元增长到 2030 年 的 1 万亿美元，五年复合增长率超 40%，并持有 OpenAI、Oracle 和 Meta 等公司的大量订单，预计 2027 年数据中心收入达数百亿美元。 工业富联作为 NV 链核心标的，未来订单确定性高，受益于英伟达 GPU 需求增长和 ASIC 相关需求增加，组装环节竞争格局较好，单机柜价值 量持续提升。 PCB 行业短期回调，但长期受益于 NV 链增长逻辑，已获明年及以后 ASIC 订单，机柜价值量和数量快速增长，核心 PCB 公司仍具投资价值。 英伟达在 2025 财年第三季度的 ...

"对管理供应链的能力有信心。与以前相比更容易预测未来"，该公司首席执行官（CEO）黄仁勋在同一 天的财报说明会上，被问及阻碍高增长的风险因素时如此强调。 在股票市场上，认为英伟达的供应能力不足将成为增长绊脚石的不安情绪正在扩散。黄仁勋解释称，该 公司与AI半导体代工企业台积电（TSMC）紧密合作，并表示正在构建满足较高需求的增产体制。 英伟达2025年8～10月财报刷新了历史最高利润，面向AI的数据中心投资支撑着盈利增长。不过，供电 网的建设尚未跟上数据中心的需求，交付的半导体无法正常运转的风险正在浮现。有分析师称："电力 将成为数据中心投资的瓶颈"…… 美国英伟达(NVIDIA)11月19日公布的2025年8～10月财报刷新了历史最高利润。面向人工智能（AI）的 数据中心投资支撑着盈利增长。不过，供电网的建设尚未跟上数据中心的需求，交付的半导体无法正常 运转的风险正在浮现。电力短缺将成为该公司持续增长的障碍。 为黄仁勋的乐观发言提供支撑的是同一天公布的强劲财报。该公司2025年8～10月的财报显示，营业收 入比上年同期增长62%，达到570亿600万美元，净利润增长65%，达到319亿1000万美元。营业收 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's FY26Q3 performance exceeded market expectations, with significant revenue growth driven by strong demand for its Blackwell platform and positive guidance for FY26Q4 [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - FY26Q3 revenue reached $57.006 billion, a year-over-year increase of 62% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 22%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $55.189 billion [4]. - Non-GAAP gross margin was 73.6%, showing a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.9 percentage points but a year-over-year decrease of 1.4 percentage points due to the transition from the Hooper platform to the Blackwell platform [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit was $31.767 billion, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 23% and a year-over-year increase of 59%, resulting in a Non-GAAP EPS of $1.30, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $1.259 [4]. Group 2: Business Segments - Data Center Business: FY26Q3 revenue was $51.215 billion, up 66% year-over-year and 25% quarter-over-quarter, with computing revenue at $43.028 billion and networking revenue at $8.187 billion. The company anticipates continued capital expenditure growth from major CSPs and hyperscale data centers, projecting $500 billion in revenue from Blackwell and Rubin by the end of 2026 [5]. - Gaming Business: FY26Q3 revenue was $4.265 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 30% but a slight quarter-over-quarter decline of 1%, driven by strong demand for Blackwell architecture chips [6]. - Professional Visualization Business: FY26Q3 revenue was $760 million, up 56% year-over-year and 26% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to increased sales of the new DGX Spark and Blackwell chips [6]. - Automotive Business: FY26Q3 revenue was $592 million, a year-over-year increase of 32% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1%, supported by the adoption of the company's autonomous driving platform by downstream customers [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - FY26Q4 guidance indicates expected revenue of $65 billion (±2%), which is higher than Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $62.133 billion, with a projected Non-GAAP gross margin of 75.0% (±50 basis points) [4]. - The company is collaborating with OpenAI to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of AI data centers, with OpenAI's weekly users surpassing 800 million [5]. - The Rubin platform is expected to begin mass production in the second half of 2026, further enhancing revenue potential [5].