Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. (Guomao Co.) reported a significant decline in net profit by 25.78% in its 2024 annual report, indicating challenges in its operational and financial performance amid a competitive market environment [1][3]. Financial Key Indicators Analysis - Revenue slightly decreased by 2.67% to CNY 2,589,429,841.71 in 2024 from CNY 2,660,414,937.05 in 2023, reflecting competitive pressure in the reducer industry [2]. - The revenue from gear reducers was CNY 1,950,757,822.55, down 4.95%, while the revenue from cycloidal pinwheel reducers and GNORD reducers decreased by 7.50% and 26.57%, respectively, indicating a need for product structure optimization [2]. Profitability Challenges - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 293,522,767.79, a decrease of 25.78% from CNY 395,500,856.38 in 2023, primarily due to intense market competition and a decline in product prices and gross margins [3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 206,479,719.98, down 42.18%, highlighting challenges in the core business profitability [3]. Earnings Per Share Decline - Basic earnings per share fell to CNY 0.45 from CNY 0.60, a decrease of 25.00%, directly impacting shareholder returns [4]. - The diluted earnings per share also decreased by 42.59% to CNY 0.31, reflecting weakened core business profitability [4]. Expense Management - Sales expenses increased slightly by 0.22% to CNY 65,501,283.56, indicating stable investment in market promotion [5]. - Management expenses decreased by 6.38% to CNY 73,414,762.97, suggesting effective internal management optimization [5]. - R&D expenses were CNY 117,501,225.53, down 7.49%, but still represented 4.54% of revenue, indicating a commitment to innovation [5]. Cash Flow Analysis - Net cash flow from operating activities increased by 11.53% to CNY 594,482,184.28, showing improved operational cash generation [6]. - Net cash flow from investing activities turned positive at CNY 351,992,410.82, primarily due to increased redemption of financial products [8]. - Net cash flow from financing activities was negative at CNY -247,149,575.39, reflecting increased cash dividend distribution [9]. R&D and Personnel Analysis - R&D investment remains significant despite a decrease, focusing on technological innovation to enhance product competitiveness [10]. - The R&D personnel structure is stable, with 367 employees, ensuring a solid foundation for ongoing innovation [11]. Industry Challenges - The reducer industry faces intensified competition, with leading companies expanding their market share, necessitating Guomao Co. to enhance its competitiveness [12]. - Fluctuations in raw material prices pose challenges for cost control, impacting profit margins [13]. - Uncertainties in the international economic environment may affect market demand, requiring strategic adjustments [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - In 2024, the company experienced a slight decline in revenue by 2.7% year-on-year, totaling 2.589 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased significantly by 25.8% to 294 million yuan [1][2] - The company's sales volume of gear reducers increased by approximately 5% year-on-year, indicating a rise in market share despite a decrease in revenue due to intensified competition and falling product prices [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its high-end product lines and has launched new products targeting the injection molding and rubber-plastic industries, which are expected to drive future growth [3] Revenue and Profit Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.589 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 21.1%, down 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] - The company's gear reducer revenue was 1.951 billion yuan, down 5.0% year-on-year, while the revenue from cycloidal pinwheel reducers was 356 million yuan, down 7.5% [2] - The report forecasts a decline in net profit for 2025 and 2026, with expected figures of 346 million yuan and 416 million yuan respectively, while projecting a recovery to 479 million yuan by 2027 [3][9] Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating a projected revenue growth rate of 13.99% in 2025 and 14.25% in 2027 [4][9] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to recover from 0.45 yuan in 2024 to 0.73 yuan in 2027 [4][11] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 8.02% in 2024 to 10.65% in 2027 [4][11] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its market presence in various sectors, including water conservancy, mining, non-ferrous metals, and oil, to mitigate the impact of declining demand in the lithium battery sector [3] - The introduction of new products such as the DHI series electric pre-plastic gearboxes and TEH series gearboxes is aimed at meeting customer demands for efficiency improvements [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][11] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, with a revenue of 2.589 billion yuan in 2024, down 2.67% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 294 million yuan, down 25.78% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to cautious capital expenditure by many enterprises amid a weak macroeconomic recovery, leading to weak overall demand in the reducer market [2][11] - The company is accelerating the research and promotion of new products to enhance brand competitiveness, with various divisions increasing product development efforts [6][11] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 25.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.67% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.94 billion yuan, down 25.78% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 6.02 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 33.4% year-on-year [2][4] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 21.13%, down 4.88 percentage points year-on-year, with a first-quarter gross profit margin of 19.63%, down 3.37 percentage points year-on-year. The decline is mainly due to weak demand in the reducer industry and intense product price competition [3][4] - The company's net profit margin for 2024 was 11.48%, down 3.31 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by the decline in gross margin and underperformance of the acquired company [4] - As of the end of 2024, the company's inventory increased by 14.52% year-on-year to 624 million yuan, while contract liabilities rose by 2.04% to 72 million yuan. The net cash flow from operating activities improved by 11.53% year-on-year to 594 million yuan [5][11] Product Development and Market Position - The company is focusing on accelerating the development and promotion of new products, including the modular reducer GR-129 series and various new gearboxes, which are expected to gradually enhance brand competitiveness [6][11]