Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the communication industry [4][7]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the communication industry index increased by 5.47%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (+3.76%), CSI 300 Index (+1.65%), Shenzhen Component Index (+5.03%), and ChiNext Index (+4.47%) [3][13]. - The capital expenditure of the four major North American cloud providers is expected to grow over 60% year-on-year, indicating a turning point for CPO commercialization applications [4][6]. - The retail sales of communication equipment in China increased by 20.9% year-on-year in December 2025, driven by the demand for smartphones [6][44]. - The three major telecom operators in China achieved a total telecom business revenue of 1.75 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [6][45]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The communication industry index rose by 5.47% in January 2026, outperforming major indices [3][13]. - Sub-sectors such as cables, other communication equipment, and system equipment saw increases of 19.70%, 10.72%, and 7.85% respectively [16]. Industry Tracking - The capital expenditure of North American cloud providers reached $126 billion in Q4 2025, a 62% year-on-year increase, with a forecast of over $660 billion for 2026 [24][25]. - AI applications are increasingly driving cloud business growth, with significant investments in AI infrastructure by major cloud providers [30][34]. Telecom Industry Insights - The telecom industry in China is experiencing stable growth, with a focus on new information infrastructure such as 5G and gigabit networks [45]. - The revenue from emerging businesses like cloud computing and big data reached 450.8 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 4.7% year-on-year [45]. Smartphone Market - Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 2% in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units, with AI smartphones expected to penetrate 34% of the market [6][44]. - The latest AI smartphones feature advanced NPU chips with processing power between 60 to 200 TOPS, enhancing user experience through real-time interactions [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in optical devices, optical chips, optical modules, and AI smartphones, including Tianfu Communication, ZTE, and China Mobile [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the communication industry [4][7]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the communication industry index increased by 5.47%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (+3.76%), CSI 300 Index (+1.65%), Shenzhen Component Index (+5.03%), and ChiNext Index (+4.47%) [3][13]. - The capital expenditure of the four major North American cloud providers is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 [6][24]. - The procurement results for special optical cables by China Mobile indicate that eight manufacturers, including Tongding Interconnection and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, have been selected, highlighting the focus on key sectors such as industrial manufacturing and digital government [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The communication industry index showed a strong performance in January 2026, with a 5.47% increase, outperforming major indices [3][13]. - Sub-sectors within the communication industry saw varied performance, with cable, other communication equipment, and system equipment rising by 19.70%, 10.72%, and 7.85% respectively [16]. Telecommunications Sector - In 2025, the telecommunications business revenue reached CNY 1.75 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [6][45]. - By December 2025, 5G mobile phone users accounted for 65.9% of total mobile phone users, with a monthly data usage (DOU) of 23.04GB per user, reflecting a 17.0% year-on-year increase [6][45]. Cloud Infrastructure Investment - The combined capital expenditure of the four major North American cloud providers in Q4 2025 was USD 126 billion, marking a 62.0% year-on-year increase [24][25]. - For 2026, the total capital expenditure guidance for these providers exceeds USD 660 billion, with an expected growth of 61.0% [24][25]. AI and Smartphone Market - The retail sales of communication equipment in China increased by 20.9% year-on-year in December 2025, driven by the demand for smartphones [44]. - The global smartphone shipment is projected to grow by 2% in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units, with AI smartphones expected to penetrate 34% of the market by 2025 [6][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in optical devices, optical chips, optical modules, and AI smartphones, including Tianfu Communication, ZTE, and China Mobile [7][6].

Core Insights - The global smartphone market is projected to reach 320.1 million units in Q3 2025, reflecting a 3% year-over-year growth, driven by increased shipments from major brands like Samsung, Apple, Transsion, and Lenovo [1][2]. Company Performance - Samsung maintains its position as the global leader with shipments of 60.6 million units, a 6% increase year-over-year, supported by strong sales of its high-end Galaxy Z Fold7/Flip7 and mid-range Galaxy A07 and A17 models [5]. - Apple shipped 56.5 million units, marking a 4% year-over-year growth, with the iPhone 17 series performing well due to enhanced storage options and strong demand in emerging markets [5]. - Transsion has risen to the fourth position globally, achieving a 12% year-over-year increase in shipments after completing inventory adjustments [6]. - Xiaomi's shipments reached 43.4 million units, showing a modest 1% growth, with regional performance offsetting declines in the Chinese market [5]. - Vivo ranked fifth, benefiting from strong performance in the Indian market and surpassing Huawei in market share within China [6]. Regional Market Trends - The North American and Greater China markets experienced a year-over-year decline in shipments, while regions like Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa saw robust growth, contributing to the overall recovery of the global smartphone market [9]. - Africa recorded a significant 25% year-over-year increase in shipments, largely due to Transsion's increased market investment following inventory adjustments [9]. - The Asia-Pacific region achieved a 5% year-over-year growth, marking the highest quarterly performance since Q4 2021 [9]. Market Outlook - The global smartphone market is exhibiting a polarized growth trend, with both low-end (under $100) and high-end (over $700) segments expanding, while the mid-range market remains weak [10]. - Despite the recovery in Q3, challenges such as component shortages and rising costs are expected to impact the industry, potentially leading to increased prices for new products and dampening demand in the low-end market [10]. - Manufacturers are likely to adopt various strategies to address these challenges, including prioritizing high-margin models and enhancing supply chain negotiation power to maintain profitability [10].

Core Insights - The global smartphone market showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with shipments reaching 320.1 million units, a 3% year-on-year increase after a stagnant first half of the year [2][3]. Market Performance - The smartphone market faced challenges in the first half of 2025, including uncertainties from U.S. tariff policy adjustments, supply chain restructuring, slowing retail traffic, and manufacturers actively reducing inventory, resulting in flat shipments compared to the previous year [2]. - Major manufacturers like Samsung, Apple, Transsion, and Lenovo saw their shipments increase by over 2 million units year-on-year, contributing to the overall market growth [2]. Manufacturer Highlights - Samsung maintained its leading position with shipments of 60.6 million units, a 6% increase, driven by strong sales of high-end models like Galaxy Z Fold7/Flip7 and mid-range Galaxy A07 and A17 [5]. - Apple shipped 56.5 million units, up 4%, preparing for the upcoming holiday season with strong demand for the redesigned iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max, as well as growth in emerging markets like India [5]. - Xiaomi's shipments reached 43.4 million units, a modest 1% increase, with growth in regions outside China offsetting declines in the domestic market [5]. - Transsion rose to fourth place globally with a 12% year-on-year increase in shipments, benefiting from completed inventory adjustments [5]. - Vivo ranked fifth, showing strong performance in the Indian market and surpassing Huawei in market share in China [5]. Regional Performance - The North American and Greater China markets experienced year-on-year declines, while the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Africa regions recorded strong growth, contributing to the overall recovery of the global smartphone market in Q3 [8]. - Africa saw a significant 25% year-on-year increase in shipments, largely due to Transsion's increased market investment following inventory adjustments [8]. - The Asia-Pacific region achieved a 5% year-on-year growth, marking the highest quarterly level since Q4 2021 [8]. Market Outlook - The global smartphone market is exhibiting a polarized growth trend, with both low-end and high-end markets expanding, while the mid-range market remains weak [11]. - Despite the recovery in Q3, challenges such as component shortages and rising costs are expected to impact the industry, potentially leading to increased prices for new products and dampening demand in the low-end market [11]. - Manufacturers may adopt various strategies to address these challenges, including prioritizing high-margin models and enhancing supply chain bargaining power, with profitability remaining a primary goal for all manufacturers [11].

Core Insights - The global smartphone market experienced a 3% year-on-year increase in shipments, totaling 320.1 million units in Q3 2025, indicating a recovery from earlier challenges in the year [1][2]. Market Performance - The first half of 2025 faced challenges such as U.S. tariff policy changes and cautious retail sentiment, leading to flat market volume compared to the previous year. However, Q3 saw vendors capitalize on channel opportunities and adjust inventory, resulting in growth [2]. - Major vendors like Samsung, Apple, Transsion, and Lenovo each shipped over two million additional units year-on-year, contributing to the market's recovery [2]. Vendor Highlights - Samsung led the market with 60.6 million units shipped, a 6% increase YoY, driven by strong sales of its premium Galaxy Z Fold7/Flip7 models and the Galaxy A series [4]. - Apple shipped 56.5 million units, up 4% YoY, with the iPhone 17 exceeding launch expectations and strong demand from emerging markets like India [6]. - Xiaomi maintained a mild growth of 1% with 43.4 million units shipped, while Transsion saw a 12% increase in shipments, moving to fourth place [7]. Regional Performance - North America and Greater China saw declines in shipments, while Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa recorded strong growth, particularly Africa with a 25% YoY increase [8][9]. - Asia-Pacific achieved a 5% YoY increase, marking the highest quarterly volume since Q4 2021 [9]. Market Outlook - The smartphone market is experiencing polarized growth, with low-end and premium segments expanding, while the mid-range segment remains weak. The ultra-low-end (below $100) and high-end (above $700) segments are driving overall volume growth [10]. - Recent component shortages and rising costs pose challenges for the industry, potentially leading to higher pricing for new products [10][11].