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美光确认内存短缺将延续至2026年以后,HBM侵占所有产能
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2026-01-19 04:57
Group 1 - The memory industry is entering a new cycle, as indicated by the latest statements from Samsung and SK Hynix [2] - The core issue revolves around HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), with AI accelerators driving exponential demand for HBM, which in turn significantly squeezes supply in traditional markets like PCs, smartphones, and servers [3] - Micron's CEO stated that the aggregate industry supply will remain substantially short of demand for the foreseeable future [3] Group 2 - Server DRAM prices are projected to surge by 55-60% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, with Samsung and SK Hynix quoting price increases of up to 70% to major clients like Microsoft and Google [3] - The two South Korean giants have refused to sign long-term contracts, opting for quarterly pricing, indicating that the price increase trend is far from over [3] - Supply relief is not expected until at least 2027, with Micron building new fabs in Idaho expected to come online in 2027 and 2028, while a new facility in New York will not contribute until 2030 [4] Group 3 - OpenAI's Stargate project has secured an agreement with Samsung and SK Hynix for a monthly supply of 900,000 DRAM wafers, which exceeds the current global HBM production capacity [4] - The impact on end markets is becoming evident, with IDC adjusting its 2026 PC market forecast from a decline of 2.5% to a potential contraction of 5-9%, and smartphone BOM costs are also under significant pressure [4] - NVIDIA plans to cut the production of its GeForce RTX50 series graphics cards by 30-40% due to GDDR7 shortages, highlighting the shift of memory from a commodity to a strategic asset [4]