Core Insights - Giverny Capital Asset Management's portfolio returned 0.01% in Q4 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's 2.66% return, and year-to-date returns were 12.58% compared to the index's 17.88% [1] - The firm faced challenges due to an underweight in large technology companies and an overweight in smaller niche leaders, despite strong earnings growth and capital returns from portfolio companies [1] - The market's focus on AI investments has overshadowed the actual benefits of portfolio companies, which are excelling in earnings growth [1] Company Highlights - Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) was highlighted as a leading contributor in Giverny Capital's Q4 2025 investor letter, with a stock price of $338.66 and a market capitalization of $4.088 trillion as of January 29, 2026 [2] - Alphabet Inc. achieved a one-month return of 7.40% and a 52-week gain of 64.72% [2] - The company reported a 30% increase in earnings for 2025, compounding in the high teens since 2021, supported by its diverse portfolio including Google Services, Google Cloud, and AI initiatives [3] Investment Sentiment - Alphabet Inc. ranks 7th among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 186 hedge fund portfolios holding its shares at the end of Q3 2025, up from 178 in the previous quarter [4] - The company achieved its first-ever $100 billion in revenue in Q3 2025, indicating strong financial performance [4] - While Alphabet Inc. is recognized for its potential, the firm suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [4]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon.com Inc. is expected to regain its market leadership position after years of underperformance compared to its Big Tech rivals, driven by strong demand for its Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud-computing business and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technology [1][2]. Group 1: AWS and AI Impact - The demand for AWS is anticipated to benefit significantly from the growth of AI technology, which is also expected to enhance Amazon's e-commerce operations through improved advertising targeting and logistics efficiency [2]. - Portfolio managers believe that improvements in AWS will positively influence the stock's perception, which has been viewed as a laggard in the cloud sector [3]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Valuation - Amazon shares were the worst performers among the Magnificent Seven tech stocks in 2025, marking the seventh consecutive year of underperformance, with a 5% gain compared to a 20% increase in the Nasdaq 100 Index [4]. - The stock is currently trading at approximately 24 times projected earnings for the next 12 months, which is lower than competitors like Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet, and significantly below its five-year average of 36 [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Comparisons - Wall Street analysts point to Alphabet's recent stock rebound as a potential model for Amazon, noting that Alphabet was previously seen as a loser in the AI race but experienced a significant turnaround after launching its Gemini AI model [6]. - Following the release of the Gemini AI model, Alphabet's shares surged by 89%, leading to speculation that Amazon could be the next tech stock to benefit from a similar surge in AI enthusiasm [7].

Core Insights - Alphabet Inc. has surpassed a $4 trillion market capitalization, becoming one of the few companies to achieve this milestone, driven by investor confidence in its position within the artificial intelligence sector [1][7] Company Performance - Shares of Alphabet closed up 1% at $331.86, resulting in a market cap of just over $4 trillion, overtaking Apple Inc. to become the second-largest firm behind Nvidia Corp. [2] - Alphabet's stock has increased by 6% in 2025, building on a previous year's rally of over 65%, adding nearly $1.5 trillion to its market valuation [3] AI Dominance - The positive sentiment towards Alphabet is attributed to its strong position in key AI areas, with favorable reviews for its Gemini AI model alleviating competition concerns from firms like OpenAI [4][7] - The company's tensor processing unit chips are anticipated to be a significant driver of future revenue growth [4] Competitive Advantages - Analysts note that Alphabet's competitive advantages in AI are not only intact but are also expanding, with no other competitor possessing the same combination of models, compute power, applications, talent, and data [5] - Alphabet's shares are trading at approximately 28 times estimated earnings, which is near their highest since 2021 and significantly above the 10-year average of 20.5 [5] Market Validation - Despite its increased valuation, Alphabet trades at a slight discount compared to the overall Magnificent Seven Index [6] - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a stake in Alphabet, indicating confidence from a traditionally conservative investor regarding tech stocks [6]

Financial Milestone - Alphabet reached a $4 trillion valuation for the first time, surpassing Apple to become the second-most valuable company in the world [1] - Alphabet is the fourth company to achieve this milestone, following Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple [1] AI Partnership - Apple selected Google's Gemini AI model to enhance its digital assistant Siri, which is pre-installed on every iPhone, although the financial details of the deal were not disclosed [2] - Apple stated that Google's technology provides the most capable foundation for its AI models [2] Stock Performance - Alphabet's stock surged approximately 65% in 2025, outperforming its peers in the "Magnificent Seven" group of elite stocks [3] - Despite concerns of a stock market bubble, investor enthusiasm for AI investments remains strong [3] Product Launches - Alphabet has addressed investor concerns regarding its AI strategy through high-profile product launches, including the Gemini AI model and the Nano Banana image generator [4] - OpenAI's latest model, GPT-5, did not meet expectations, allowing Alphabet to gain a competitive edge [4] Cloud Business Growth - Google Cloud's revenue increased by 34% in the third quarter, with a backlog of non-recognized sales contracts reaching $155 billion [5] - The cloud unit's growth has been bolstered by renting out self-developed AI chips previously reserved for internal use [5] Advertising Business Stability - Google's advertising business, primarily driven by Google Search and YouTube, has remained stable despite economic uncertainties and competition [6] - The company is currently navigating two significant US antitrust lawsuits, with a judge ruling against breaking up the company in the first case [6] Antitrust Legal Challenges - In the second antitrust case, a judge ruled that Google had illegally monopolized the online ad market, with a trial underway to determine remedies, which may include divesting parts of its advertising business [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current market dynamics indicate a shift in investor sentiment, with a focus on earnings growth and stock selection rather than solely relying on major tech companies for returns. The Magnificent 7 index is experiencing slower profit growth, prompting investors to seek more quality management and tangible returns on investments in AI and technology [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Valuations and Earnings Growth - The Magnificent 7 index is currently priced at 29 times projected profits for the next 12 months, significantly lower than the 40s multiples seen earlier in the decade [1]. - Profits for the Magnificent 7 are expected to grow by approximately 18% in 2026, which is the slowest pace since 2022, and only slightly better than the 13% growth projected for the remaining S&P 500 companies [1]. Group 2: Performance of Major Tech Companies - Nvidia has seen a remarkable stock increase of 1,165% since the end of 2022, but it has lost 11% since reaching its record high on October 29 [6]. - Microsoft is projected to invest nearly $100 billion in capital expenditures during its current fiscal year, with expectations to rise to $116 billion the following year [8]. - Apple’s stock fell nearly 20% through early August but rebounded with a 34% increase by year-end, driven by strong iPhone sales despite its conservative approach to AI investments [11][12]. - Alphabet's stock rose over 65% last year, benefiting from its strong position in the AI landscape, but its shares are trading at around 28 times estimated earnings, above its five-year average [13][14]. - Amazon, despite being the weakest performer in the Magnificent 7 in 2025, has shown strong early performance in 2026, driven by growth in Amazon Web Services [15][16]. - Meta Platforms has faced skepticism regarding its heavy AI spending, with a significant drop in stock value following increased capital expenditure forecasts [17][18]. - Tesla's shares were the worst performers in the Magnificent 7 in the first half of 2025 but rebounded over 40% in the second half, with revenue projected to rise 12% in 2026 after a contraction in 2025 [19][20].

Core Insights - The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) has prompted a collaboration between tech giants Apple and Alphabet, previously rivals in the smartphone market [1][2]. Apple - Apple plans to license Alphabet's Gemini AI model for its Siri voice assistant at an annual cost of $1 billion, benefiting Alphabet as its stock price increased nearly 60% in 2025 [2]. - Apple reported record revenue of $416.2 billion for the fiscal year ending September 27, 2025, up from $391 billion the previous year, with a strong fourth quarter contributing $102.5 billion [5][6]. - The company appointed Amar Subramanya as the new head of AI strategy, indicating a commitment to enhancing its AI capabilities [7]. - Apple released the M5 chip in October, designed to support AI applications on its devices [8]. Alphabet - Alphabet has made organizational changes to improve its AI strategy, culminating in the launch of the Gemini 3 AI model in November [10]. - Google search revenue reached $56.6 billion in Q3 2025, up from $49.4 billion in 2024, driven by AI enhancements [11]. - Alphabet's AI initiatives are also supporting its self-driving car business, Waymo, which is expanding internationally [12]. Investment Comparison - The AI industry is projected to grow from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033, indicating significant growth potential for both companies [14]. - Alphabet is considered a better investment option compared to Apple based on share price valuation, as its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has been lower throughout 2025 [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - AI stocks are currently available at discounted prices due to negative sentiment following earnings results from Oracle and Broadcom, creating potential investment opportunities in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Oracle and Broadcom Earnings Impact - Oracle's stock declined as investors expressed concerns over OpenAI's ability to finance its $300 billion cloud computing deal, excluding its agreements with AI chipmakers [2]. - Broadcom reported strong AI sales but faced margin concerns, leading to a stock decline after earnings, with anticipated margins dropping by approximately 1% in Q1 FY26 [2]. Group 2: Iren's Market Position - Iren, an Australia-based AI specialist, is addressing energy bottlenecks in data centers and has signed a significant five-year, $9.7 billion deal with Microsoft, highlighting its potential [5]. - Despite a nearly 50% drop from its peak in early November, Iren's stock decline is viewed as an overreaction, as its performance is not directly related to Oracle or Broadcom's issues [6]. - Iren aims to generate $3.4 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of fiscal 2026, a substantial increase from $16.4 million in fiscal 2025 revenue from AI cloud services [7][8]. Group 3: Alphabet's Competitive Advantage - Alphabet has evolved from a search engine to a diversified business, including cloud services and AI chip development, positioning it as a leading AI stock [10][11]. - The company benefits from strong financials and cash flow, allowing it to invest heavily in AI initiatives without balance sheet concerns, unlike smaller speculative AI stocks [12]. - Alphabet's Q3 revenue increased by 18% year over year, with Google Cloud revenue surging by 34%, indicating strong market share growth in AI [13]. - The company's AI ventures, particularly its Gemini AI model, could enhance its market position, potentially making it the most valuable company, surpassing Nvidia [14].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has initiated an investigation into Google to determine if it is violating competition rules by using online content from web publishers and YouTube for its artificial intelligence services, potentially disadvantaging rival AI developers [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation Focus - The investigation will assess whether Google is distorting competition by imposing unfair terms on publishers and content creators or by granting itself privileged access to content, disadvantaging competitors in the AI space [2]. - Concerns have been raised that Google may have utilized content from web publishers to create AI-powered services in search results without compensating publishers or allowing them to refuse the use of their content [3]. - The commission is also investigating whether Google has used YouTube content to train its generative AI models without compensating creators or providing them the option to refuse [3]. Group 2: Content Creator Obligations - Content creators on YouTube are required to grant Google permission to use their data for various purposes, including training generative AI models [4]. - Google does not compensate YouTube content creators for their content and mandates that they allow Google to use their data, which restricts rival AI developers from using YouTube content for their own AI training [5]. Group 3: Industry Context - Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet, has acknowledged that AI models are "prone to errors" and advised users to utilize them alongside other tools [6]. - Pichai also indicated that no company would be immune if the AI bubble were to burst, highlighting the potential risks within the AI industry [7].

Core Viewpoint - Warby Parker's stock surged over 13% following news of its collaboration with Google on AI-powered glasses, indicating strong investor interest in the company's innovative direction [1][7]. Group 1: Product Development - Warby Parker is developing advanced AI-powered glasses in partnership with Google, Gentle Monster, and Samsung, with a planned release in 2026 [1][2]. - The glasses will operate on Google's Android XR operating system and utilize the Gemini AI model, featuring two models: one with speakers, cameras, and microphones, and another with only an in-lens display [4]. Group 2: Market Performance - Warby Parker's stock price increased by 13.27%, reaching $21.26, with a market capitalization of $2 billion [5][6]. - The stock's trading range for the day was between $19.51 and $21.79, and it has a 52-week range of $13.63 to $29.73 [6]. Group 3: Industry Context - The AI glasses market is competitive, with other companies like Meta Platforms also developing similar products, but Warby Parker's collaboration with Google is seen as a significant advantage due to Google's resources and expertise [4][6]. - The pricing for the new eyewear has not been disclosed, making it difficult to assess the potential impact on Warby Parker's fundamentals [6].

Core Insights - Wall Street's sentiment is shifting from OpenAI to Alphabet Inc., with OpenAI facing profitability concerns while Alphabet is seen as a strong competitor in AI [1][2][3] Company Performance - OpenAI's stock is under heavy selling pressure, affecting associated companies like Oracle, CoreWeave, and AMD, while Alphabet's stock is rising, benefiting companies like Broadcom and Lumentum [2][9] - OpenAI's associated companies saw a 74% gain in 2025, but Alphabet-exposed stocks surged by 146% [4] Market Dynamics - The rapid change in sentiment towards OpenAI has significant implications for the AI sector, which has been a major driver of the stock market's rally [3][10] - Alphabet's market capitalization is among the highest in the S&P 500, with substantial cash reserves and a diverse business portfolio, enhancing its competitive position [6][7] Competitive Landscape - There is a growing belief that Alphabet is positioned to become the leading AI model builder, a title that was previously attributed to OpenAI [7] - OpenAI's recent struggles, including mixed reactions to its GPT-5 and the success of Alphabet's Gemini AI, have raised doubts about its future [5][10] Financial Concerns - OpenAI's ambitious spending plans, estimated to exceed $207 billion by 2033, have led to skepticism about its ability to generate sufficient revenue [13][14] - Analysts suggest that OpenAI needs to improve revenue, manage costs better, or seek additional capital to close the financial gap [14] Investment Sentiment - Investors are becoming more cautious, shifting from a bullish outlook on tech to skepticism, particularly regarding companies associated with OpenAI [11][12] - Despite the current weakness in stocks tied to OpenAI, some analysts see potential buying opportunities as these stocks trade at a discount compared to those linked to Alphabet [15] Future Outlook - There is optimism about untapped demand across industries, which could support growth for companies involved in AI, as long as they focus on monetization [16]