UPS (NYSE:UPS) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 27, 2026 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsBrian Dykes - EVP and CFOBruce Chan - DirectorCarol B. Tomé - CEOJason Seidl - Managing DirectorKate Gutmann - EVP and President of International, Healthcare and Supply Chain SolutionsKen Hoexter - Managing DirectorMatt Guffey - EVP, CCO, and CSONando Cesarone - EVP and President of U.S. OperationsP.J. Guido - Head of Investor RelationsRavi Shanker - Managing DirectorConference Call ParticipantsAri Rosa - Senior AnalystBas ...

UPS (NYSE:UPS) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 27, 2026 08:30 AM ET Speaker13Good morning. My name is Matthew, and I'll be your facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the UPS Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise, and after the speaker's remarks, there'll be a question-and-answer period. Any analyst that would like to ask a question, now is the time to press star, then one on your telephone keypad. It is now my pleasure ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q3 2025 was $21.4 billion, with an operating profit of $2.1 billion and an operating margin of 10% [7][19] - Year-to-date free cash flow reached $2.7 billion, showing improvement from previous quarters [7][27] - Diluted earnings per share were $1.74, with $0.30 attributed to a sale leaseback transaction [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. average daily volume (ADV) declined by 12.3%, primarily due to a planned reduction in Amazon volume and lower-yielding e-commerce volume [8][20] - U.S. domestic revenue was $14.2 billion, down 2.6% year over year, despite a 9.8% increase in revenue per piece [23][24] - International ADV grew by 4.8%, with export ADV increasing by 5.9%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth [9][25] - Supply Chain Solutions revenue was $2.5 billion, down $715 million year over year, largely due to the divestiture of Coyote [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The international segment's operating margin was 14.8%, down from the previous year due to trade lane shifts and lower demand-related surcharges [26] - The U.S. experienced a significant decline in imports from China, with a 27.1% drop in ADV [25][57] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is undergoing a significant transformation, focusing on high-value market segments and complex logistics needs [17][18] - The acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group is expected to enhance UPS's healthcare logistics capabilities [11][32] - The Digital Access Program (DAP) generated over $2.8 billion in revenue, a 20% increase year over year, indicating strong growth in the SMB segment [12][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating tariff changes and highlighted the importance of operational agility in response to evolving trade policies [6][9] - The company anticipates a strong peak season, driven by strategic enhancements and operational efficiencies [15][31] - Fourth quarter revenue is expected to be approximately $24 billion, with an operating margin of 11% to 11.5% [17][32] Other Important Information - The company has closed 93 buildings as part of its network reconfiguration efforts, aiming to reduce costs by approximately $3.5 billion this year [13][28] - The voluntary retirement program for long-term drivers was successfully completed, contributing to cost savings [13][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Domestic margins and future expectations - Management is pleased with revenue quality and progress on the Amazon glide down, with expectations for sequential increases in Amazon volume during peak [35][36] Question: Cost per piece and USPS collaboration - Cost per piece is expected to improve due to automation investments and the driver voluntary severance program, with benefits materializing in Q4 [42][43][46] Question: SMB performance and trade policy impacts - SMBs showed slight declines year on year, but the company is actively helping them navigate trade policy changes [50][51][52] Question: International trade flow analysis - Permanent changes in trade flows are expected, with a focus on operational adjustments to meet customer needs [88][90]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q3 2025 was $21.4 billion, with an operating profit of $2.1 billion and an operating margin of 10% [4][15] - Year-to-date free cash flow reached $2.7 billion, showing improvement from previous quarters [4][23] - Diluted earnings per share were reported at $1.74, with $0.30 of EPS attributed to a sale leaseback transaction [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. average daily volume (ADV) declined by 12.3%, primarily due to the planned reduction of Amazon volume and a focus on revenue quality [5][16] - U.S. revenue per piece increased by 9.8%, marking the strongest growth rate in three years [18] - International ADV grew by 4.8%, with export ADV increasing by 5.9%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth [6][21] - Supply Chain Solutions revenue was $2.5 billion, down $715 million year-over-year, largely due to the divestiture of Coyote [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The international segment saw a decline in U.S. imports, particularly a 27.1% drop in ADV from China to the U.S. [21][46] - SMBs represented 32.8% of total U.S. volume, showing a 340 basis point improvement compared to last year [17] - The healthcare logistics segment experienced strong revenue growth, driven by UPS's portfolio of healthcare solutions [6][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is undergoing a significant network reconfiguration aimed at reducing costs by approximately $3.5 billion this year [24][26] - UPS aims to become the number one complex healthcare logistics provider globally, with an acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group expected to close in early November [8][13] - The focus is on capturing high-value market segments and onboarding customers with complex logistics needs [13][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating tariff changes and highlighted the importance of agility in the international network [4][6] - The company anticipates consolidated revenue of approximately $24 billion for Q4 2025, with an operating margin of 11% to 11.5% [13][28] - Management noted that the operational strategy and commitment to excellence are expected to lead to a strong peak season [12][28] Other Important Information - The company has successfully implemented automation in 35 facilities, with plans for further deployment [12][26] - UPS has paid $4 billion in dividends year-to-date and expects to pay around $5.5 billion in dividends for the full year [23][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Domestic margins and future outlook - Management is pleased with revenue quality and progress on the Amazon glide down, with updates on 2026 expected in January [30][31] Question: Cost per piece and USPS collaboration - Cost per piece is on a tough comparison, but production metrics are strong, and savings from the driver voluntary severance program will materialize in Q4 [32][35][37] Question: SMB performance and trade policy impact - SMBs showed slight declines but performed better than expected relative to the market, with ongoing support for navigating trade policy changes [40][42] Question: International trade flow analysis - Permanent changes in trade flows are expected, with a target of mid to high teen margins for international operations [66][68] Question: Impact of government shutdown on operations - No significant impact on peak season has been factored in, but management is monitoring the situation closely [70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q1 2025 was $21.5 billion, a decrease of 0.7% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [7][30] - Consolidated operating profit increased by 0.9% to $1.8 billion, with an operating margin of 8.2%, up 20 basis points from the previous year [7][30] - Diluted earnings per share rose by 4.2% to $1.49 [7][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. Domestic segment operating profit increased by $164 million year-over-year, with an operating margin expansion of 110 basis points [8] - Total U.S. average daily volume (ADV) decreased by 3.5%, with ground ADV down 2.5% and air ADV down 9.6% [32] - International segment ADV increased by 7.1%, with export ADV growing by 9.3% year-over-year [38][39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - SMBs accounted for 31.2% of total U.S. volume, the highest concentration in ten years, driving changes in overall volume and revenue quality [34][19] - U.S. import volume is approximately 400,000 pieces per day, representing less than 2% of total global ADV [21] - Revenue from China to U.S. trade lanes represented 11% of total international revenue, with other trade lanes to the U.S. accounting for 17% [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing a significant network reconfiguration, including 164 operational closures, to optimize capacity and reduce dependency on labor [14][43] - The strategic focus includes improving revenue quality and expanding in healthcare, international, B2B, and SMB markets [18] - The company aims to achieve $1 billion in savings through the Efficiency Reimagined initiative, which targets process improvements and cost reductions [17][43] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the uncertain market, emphasizing the agility of their integrated network [28] - The company is not providing updates to the full-year outlook due to market uncertainties but is focused on executing strategic and financial goals [27][50] - Management highlighted the importance of modeling different scenarios to adapt to rapid shifts in business conditions [26][50] Other Important Information - The company plans to close 73 buildings by June 2025 as part of its network reconfiguration [43][48] - The first quarter saw $2.3 billion in cash from operations and $1.5 billion in free cash flow [42] - The company is leveraging next-gen brokerage technology to assist customers in navigating tariff changes [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Cost savings from the $3.5 billion target - Approximately $500 million of the $3.5 billion cost savings was realized in Q1, with expectations for ramp-up in subsequent quarters [60][78] Question: Automation and efficiency initiatives - The company is exploring automation in various operations, aiming for significant cost savings and reduced labor dependency [70][74] Question: Impact of tariffs on SMBs - SMBs are facing challenges due to tariffs, with many being single-sourced from China, leading to uncertainty in the marketplace [80][81] Question: International volume growth outlook - The company anticipates a shift in trade flows, with potential growth opportunities outside the U.S. despite current uncertainties [89][90] Question: Domestic business performance and pricing strategies - The GroundSaver product has seen an intentional decline in volume as the company adjusts its cost structure and focuses on revenue quality [94][95]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q1 2025 was $21.5 billion, a decrease of 0.7% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [7][30] - Consolidated operating profit increased to $1.8 billion, up 0.9% compared to the previous year [7][30] - Consolidated operating margin improved to 8.2%, an increase of 20 basis points year-over-year [7][30] - Diluted earnings per share rose to $1.49, reflecting a 4.2% increase from the prior year [7][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. Domestic segment operating profit increased by $164 million year-over-year, with an operating margin expansion of 110 basis points [8][38] - Total U.S. average daily volume (ADV) decreased by 3.5%, with ground ADV down 2.5% and air ADV down 9.6% [32] - International segment ADV increased by 7.1%, with all regions showing growth [38] - Supply Chain Solutions revenue decreased by $471 million, primarily due to the divestiture of Coyote [40] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. import volume is approximately 400,000 pieces per day, representing less than 2% of total global ADV [21] - Revenue from China to U.S. trade lanes accounted for 11% of total international revenue, while other trade lanes contributed 17% [21][22] - SMBs represented 31.2% of total U.S. volume, the highest concentration in ten years [34][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing a significant network reconfiguration, including 164 operational closures, to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [14][43] - The strategic focus includes reducing dependency on Amazon's volume by over 50% by June 2026, while maintaining profitable segments [12][46] - The company aims to improve revenue quality by targeting growth in healthcare, international, B2B, and SMB markets [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating a dynamic environment, emphasizing the importance of agility in operations [6][28] - The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain due to changing trade policies and tariffs, with no updates provided for the full-year outlook [26][50] - Management highlighted the need to model various scenarios to adapt to rapid shifts in business conditions [26][50] Other Important Information - The company generated $2.3 billion in cash from operations and paid $1.3 billion in dividends during Q1 [42] - The efficiency reimagined initiative is expected to deliver $1 billion in savings by improving operational processes [17][60] Q&A Session Summary Question: Cost savings from the $3.5 billion target - Approximately $500 million of the $3.5 billion cost savings was realized in Q1, with expectations for ramp-up in subsequent quarters [78][79] Question: Impact of tariffs on SMBs - SMBs are facing significant uncertainty due to tariffs, particularly those reliant on single sourcing from China [80][81] Question: International volume growth outlook - The company anticipates that trade flows will shift, allowing for potential growth in international markets despite challenges in the China to U.S. lane [89][90]