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通威股份(600438):业绩拐点已现,盈利修复可期
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-29 07:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its third-quarter performance, with a notable reduction in losses, indicating a potential turning point in profitability [1][2] - The recovery in multi-crystalline silicon prices and cost optimization have contributed to the improvement in profitability [1] - The company maintains a leading position in the photovoltaic technology sector, with robust production capacity and global market share [2] - Strong cash flow provides a solid safety margin against industry fluctuations [2] - Profit forecasts indicate a recovery trajectory for net profits from -48.90 billion in 2025 to 76.86 billion in 2027, reflecting substantial growth rates [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 646.0 billion, a year-on-year decline of 5.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -52.70 billion [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue reached 240.91 billion, with a reduced year-on-year decline of 1.57%, and a net loss of -3.15 billion, marking a 62.69% reduction in losses compared to the previous quarter [1] - The company's operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 28.25 billion, maintaining positive inflow [2] - The total interest-bearing debt stood at 884.25 billion, with 60.8% being long-term loans, indicating a stable debt structure [2] Production and Technological Leadership - The company has achieved significant milestones in photovoltaic technology, including a TOPCon component power of 778.5W and an HJT component efficiency of 25.46% [2] - As of June 2025, the company has an annual production capacity of over 900,000 tons of high-purity silicon, over 150GW of solar cells, and over 90GW of modules, leading in global shipments [2] Cash Flow and Financial Stability - By the end of September 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 182.46 billion, a 27.75% increase from the beginning of the year, providing a buffer against industry volatility [2] - The report highlights a decrease in management expenses by 34.47% year-on-year, reflecting effective management practices [1]