根据公开信息，在传统流感疫苗平均预防效力仅为40%左右的背景下，CD388在2b期临床试 验中最高剂量展现出76%的预防效力，且单次用药可提供长达4～5个月的保护。 "若CD388成功获批上市，其展现出的76%预防效力远高于传统疫苗，有望打开百亿美元级市 场。结合默沙东成熟的商业化网络与全球渠道，协同效应下净现值（NPV）或远超收购成 本。默沙东近年持续加码传染病领域布局（如新冠药物Lagevrio、HPV疫苗Gardasil等），此 次收购其希望通过引入Cidara的专有Cloudbreak平台技术，进一步强化在'免疫激活型抗感染 药物'领域的管线厚度，为中长期增长储备新引擎。"有券商医药行业分析师对21世纪经济报道 记者表示。 在上述分析师看来，从交易时点来看，Cidara正处于核心产品CD388数据验证的关键阶段，3 期ANCHOR研究（高风险人群）结果虽未披露，但预期乐观。此时，默沙东以合理溢价收 购，锁定"潜在First-in-Class"资产，避免了后续研发风险和竞对抬价，符合大型药企"前瞻性 并购+降低不确定性"的常规逻辑。 面对王牌抗癌药Keytruda（帕博利珠单抗）即将面临的专利悬崖危机， ...

Core Viewpoint - Merck is aggressively pursuing acquisitions and partnerships to diversify its product portfolio and mitigate the impending revenue loss from the expiration of key patents, particularly for its blockbuster drug Keytruda, which is expected to face significant sales declines by 2030 [6][23]. Group 1: Acquisition Strategy - Over the past three years, Merck has spent over $50 billion on acquisitions, with significant deals including the $11.5 billion acquisition of Acceleron Pharma in 2021, $10.8 billion for Prometheus Biosciences in 2023, and a planned $10 billion acquisition of Verona Pharma in 2025 [1][6]. - Merck's acquisition strategy includes a focus on various therapeutic areas such as oncology, autoimmune diseases, cardiovascular, respiratory, and ophthalmology, aiming to build a diverse product pipeline [3][8]. Group 2: Key Products and Partnerships - Merck has established partnerships worth over $30 billion with companies like Kura Oncology and Daiichi Sankyo to develop antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), enhancing its oncology pipeline [2][10]. - The company is also introducing new drugs, such as a cardiovascular treatment from Hutchison China MediTech for $2 billion, and is actively developing multiple ADC products in collaboration with partners [2][10]. Group 3: Revenue Challenges - The patent for Keytruda is set to expire in 2028, with projections indicating a potential sales drop of nearly 50% by 2030, leading to an anticipated revenue gap of around $15 billion [6][8]. - Sales of Merck's second-best-selling product, the HPV vaccine Gardasil, have also declined by 48% year-on-year, further exacerbating revenue concerns [7][8]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - Merck's acquisitions and partnerships are expected to yield several potential blockbuster drugs across various therapeutic areas, including the TL1A monoclonal antibody for inflammatory bowel disease and the dual-target COPD drug Ensifentrine [16][17]. - The company is also exploring innovative treatments in the ophthalmology sector, with a potential first-in-class Wnt antibody for diabetic macular edema [20]. Group 5: Strategic Outlook - Merck's recent acquisitions and partnerships are part of a strategic shift to prepare for the post-Keytruda era, aiming to fill revenue gaps and reshape the competitive landscape in the pharmaceutical industry [23].