2025.11.22 根据伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）的数据，礼来目前的估值在大型制药公司中排名居前，约为未来12 个月预期收益的50倍，这反映出投资者仍在持续押注这家减重药巨头公司。 礼来股价的表现也远超美国大盘。自2023年底替尔泊肽减重药在美国上市以来，礼来股价已上涨超过 75%，超过同期标普500指数50%的涨幅。 华尔街估计，到2030年，减重药市场规模将达到1500亿美元，礼来与诺和诺德将占据全球大部分的预期 销售额。 投资者目前关注的焦点是礼来公司的下一代口服减重药orforglipron，该药预计将于明年年初获得批准。 本文字数：754，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 钱童心 11月21日美股收盘，礼来公司收盘市值突破1万亿美元，成为首个进入"万亿美元俱乐部"的医药公司， 打破了由科技行业主导的局面。 今年以来，受益于减重药需求的激增，礼来公司股价涨幅超35%。 在最新公布的季度财报中，礼来的GLP-1类药物替尔泊肽减重和降糖两大适应症的销售突破100亿美 元，占公司总收入的超过一半，也超越默沙东肿瘤药Keytruda（K药）的季度销售额，成为新时代的"药 王"。 过去两年，礼来凭借替 ...

11月21日美股收盘，礼来公司收盘市值突破1万亿美元，成为首个进入"万亿美元俱乐部"的医药公司， 打破了由科技行业主导的局面。 今年以来，受益于减重药需求的激增，礼来公司股价涨幅超35%。 在最新公布的季度财报中，礼来的GLP-1类药物替尔泊肽减重和降糖两大适应症的销售突破100亿美 元，占公司总收入的超过一半，也超越默沙东肿瘤药Keytruda（K药）的季度销售额，成为新时代 的"药王"。 过去两年，礼来凭借替尔泊肽的强势崛起，不断赶超减重药巨头诺和诺德，并在美国市场上抢占了诺和 诺德的GLP-1药物司美格鲁肽的大部分市场份额。礼来正计划投入数十亿美元以提升美国本土减重药 的产量。 2025.11. 22 本文字数：754，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 钱童心 花旗集团分析师在上周的一份报告中指出，最新一代GLP-1类药物已经成为"销售奇迹"，而下一代口服 减重药也有望受益于强劲的销售趋势。 微信编辑 | 龙王 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 ...

投资人也看到了这种新型减重治疗药物的巨大市场前景，由于庞大的肥胖患者基数，该领域已成为医疗保健行业最赚钱的细分市场之一。 根据伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）的数据，礼来目前的估值在大型制药公司中排名居前，约为未来12个月预期收益的50倍，这反映出投资者仍在持 续押注这家减重药巨头公司。 礼来股价的表现也远超美国大盘。自2023年底替尔泊肽减重药在美国上市以来，礼来股价已上涨超过75%，超过同期标普500指数50%的涨幅。 在最新公布的季度财报中，礼来的GLP-1类药物替尔泊肽减重和降糖两大适应症的销售突破100亿美元，占公司总收入的超过一半，也超越默沙东肿瘤 药Keytruda（K药）的季度销售额，成为新时代的"药王"。 过去两年，礼来凭借替尔泊肽的强势崛起，不断赶超减重药巨头诺和诺德，并在美国市场上抢占了诺和诺德的GLP-1药物司美格鲁肽的大部分市场份 额。礼来正计划投入数十亿美元以提升美国本土减重药的产量。 投资人也看到了这种新型减重治疗药物的巨大市场前景，由于庞大的肥胖患者基数，该领域已成为医疗保健行业最赚钱的细分市场之一。 11月21日美股收盘，礼来公司收盘市值突破1万亿美元，成为首个进入"万亿美元俱 ...

Core Insights - The approval of PD-1 inhibitors Keytruda and Opdivo a decade ago has significantly transformed cancer treatment, particularly in lung cancer, melanoma, and lymphoma, marking the beginning of the immunotherapy era [1] - As key patents near expiration and biosimilars enter the market, the market share of leading products is under pressure, with Merck's Keytruda sales growth slowing to 8% and BMS's Opdivo experiencing a 1% decline [1][2] - The oncology market is evolving into a 2.0 era, with companies like Merck and BMS focusing on combination therapies involving ADCs (antibody-drug conjugates) to maintain competitive advantages [1][2] Industry Trends - The global oncology drug market is projected to grow from $168 billion in 2020 to $247 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2%, while the ADC market is expanding rapidly with a CAGR of 41.7% [1] - Merck is actively building a "PD-1+ADC" treatment matrix, acquiring ADC technologies and collaborating with various companies to enhance the efficacy and application of Keytruda [2] - The KEYNOTE-905 study presented at ESMO 2025 demonstrated significant clinical benefits of combining Keytruda with Padcev in treating muscle-invasive bladder cancer, potentially changing clinical practices [3] Company Developments - Domestic companies like Fuhong Hanlin are making strides in ADC development, with promising clinical data for their PD-L1 ADC HLX43 in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [4] - The Chinese market is witnessing a shift towards innovative therapies, with a focus on combination strategies involving PD-1 inhibitors and ADCs, as well as dual-targeting antibodies [5][6] - Major pharmaceutical companies are increasingly interested in acquiring innovative assets in the PD-1 and ADC space, indicating a trend towards collaboration and co-development in the industry [6]

Core Insights - The approval of PD-1 inhibitors Keytruda and Opdivo a decade ago has significantly transformed cancer treatment, particularly in lung cancer, melanoma, and lymphoma, marking the beginning of the immunotherapy era [1] - As key patents near expiration and biosimilars enter the market, the market share of leading products is under pressure, with Merck's Keytruda sales growth slowing to 8% and BMS's Opdivo experiencing a 1% decline [1] - The oncology market is evolving into a "2.0 era," with companies like Merck and BMS focusing on combination therapies involving PD-1 and ADCs to maintain competitive advantages [1][2] Industry Overview - The global oncology drug market is projected to grow from $168 billion in 2020 to $247 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2%, while the ADC market is expected to exceed $35 billion with a CAGR of 41.7% [1] - The shift in market dynamics indicates a move towards a multi-target competition era, emphasizing ADCs and combination therapies [1] Company Strategies - Merck is actively building a "PD-1+ADC" treatment matrix through acquisitions and partnerships, aiming to extend the lifecycle of Keytruda [2] - Recent FDA approvals for combination therapies, such as Keytruda with Padcev for bladder cancer, highlight the potential for these combinations to change clinical practices [3] - BMS has also expanded its combination therapies, with its dual immunotherapy for liver cancer becoming the first approved in China [3] Domestic Innovations - Chinese biotech companies are rapidly advancing in the "PD-1+ADC" space, with companies like Junshi Biosciences reporting promising clinical data for their PD-L1 ADC, HLX43, in non-small cell lung cancer [4] - The industry is moving towards "dual antibodies/multi-antibodies + ADC" strategies, with companies like Rongchang Bio and Pfizer exploring innovative combinations [5] Future Directions - The next generation of IO and ADC therapies is expected to become a focal point for multinational corporations in the oncology sector, with a strong emphasis on business development in China [6] - Companies are increasingly inclined to pursue co-development models as clinical data becomes more robust, indicating a trend towards strategic partnerships in the industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer has filed a second lawsuit against Novo Nordisk, accusing it of anti-competitive behavior in its attempt to acquire weight-loss drug manufacturer Metsera, claiming that the bid is aimed at maintaining market share rather than genuine acquisition interests [2][6]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Accusations - Pfizer has submitted a lawsuit to the U.S. District Court in Delaware, alleging that Metsera's controlling shareholders colluded with Novo Nordisk to influence the development of new drugs [3]. - Pfizer has requested a temporary restraining order to prevent Metsera from terminating its agreement with Pfizer [5]. - The lawsuit claims that Novo Nordisk offered $6.5 billion in prepayment to Metsera's shareholders before regulatory review, including restrictive clauses that could delay or obstruct new drug clinical progress [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The ongoing legal battle highlights the intense competition between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk over Metsera, which has a promising weight-loss drug pipeline projected to generate $5 billion in annual revenue [10]. - Metsera has received seven acquisition offers this year, with Novo Nordisk's final bid valuing the company at $9 billion, exceeding Pfizer's offer by over $1 billion [10]. - Novo Nordisk's market dominance in weight-loss drugs is under threat, especially with the expiration of its core product GLP-1 drug semaglutide's patent in China by 2026, which is expected to lead to the entry of numerous generics [10]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Competitor Performance - The weight-loss drug market is seeing significant investments from major players like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, with Eli Lilly currently outperforming Novo Nordisk in recent data, leading to a nearly 40% drop in Novo Nordisk's stock price this year [11]. - Eli Lilly's GLP-1 drug tirzepatide generated $24.837 billion in revenue in the first three quarters, surpassing Merck's blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda [11]. - Other competitors in the weight-loss drug sector include Roche, Amgen, AstraZeneca, and Merck, all of which are entering the market through self-research and acquisition strategies [11]. Group 4: Emerging Players in China - In the Chinese market, Innovent Biologics' weight-loss drug product, mazhidutide, is in the early stages of growth, with several other companies like Heng Rui Medicine, Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group, and East China Pharmaceutical actively investing in this field [12].

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's dominance in the weight loss drug market is being challenged by Pfizer's legal actions, which allege anti-competitive behavior related to the acquisition of Metsera [1][3][5]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Allegations - Pfizer has filed a second lawsuit against Novo Nordisk, accusing it of attempting to acquire Metsera at a price higher than Pfizer's offer, which constitutes anti-competitive behavior [1]. - Pfizer claims that Novo Nordisk's offer is a strategic move to maintain its market share of semaglutide rather than a genuine interest in Metsera's drug pipeline [3]. - The lawsuit includes allegations that Novo Nordisk provided $6.5 billion in upfront payments to Metsera's shareholders before regulatory review, with restrictive clauses that could delay or obstruct new drug development [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Financial Implications - The ongoing legal battle intensifies competition between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk over Metsera, which has a promising weight loss drug pipeline projected to generate $5 billion in annual revenue [5]. - Metsera has received seven acquisition offers since the beginning of the year, with Novo Nordisk's final bid valuing the company at $9 billion, exceeding Pfizer's offer by over $1 billion [5]. - Novo Nordisk's market position is expected to face further challenges as its core product, GLP-1 drug semaglutide, will lose patent protection in China by 2026, leading to the entry of numerous generics [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The weight loss drug market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Eli Lilly, Roche, Amgen, and AstraZeneca also entering the field through research and acquisitions [7]. - In China, companies such as Innovent Biologics are beginning to establish their weight loss drug products, while several domestic firms are actively investing in this sector [7]. - Eli Lilly has reported strong performance in the weight loss drug market, with its GLP-1 drug contributing $24.837 billion in revenue in the first three quarters, surpassing Merck's leading cancer drug Keytruda [6].

Group 1 - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Negotiation has commenced in Beijing, introducing a "Commercial Insurance Innovative Drug Directory" mechanism to enhance the accessibility and commercialization of innovative drugs [1] - The inclusion of HPV vaccine in the National Immunization Program will significantly expand market demand for HPV vaccines, particularly the bivalent type, and may accelerate R&D and production efforts by other vaccine companies [2] Group 2 - Changchun High-tech reported a 58.23% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first three quarters, raising concerns about future profitability and development prospects [3] - Tongrentang's net profit decreased by 12.78% year-on-year in the first three quarters, which may lead to investor concerns about the company's future profitability, although its strong brand heritage may support recovery [4] Group 3 - Eli Lilly's sales of Tirzepatide surpassed Keytruda, with third-quarter revenue reaching $17.6 billion, indicating increased market attractiveness and potential competitive pressure on peers [5]

Market Performance Review - The recent market performance shows a pulse-like adjustment post-holiday, with the A-share market closing at 3883 points before the holiday and breaking through 3900 points before starting to adjust. On October 17, the market experienced its largest single-day decline since late August, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 dropping 1.95% and 2.26% respectively [4][7][25] - In the short term, there is a clear shift in style, with growth stocks leading in August with an overall increase of over 10%, while small-cap growth and national index growth fell by 6.28% and 5.96% respectively in October. Value stocks, which had previously lagged, gained positive returns [4][10][20] A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to enter the second phase of a bull market, with a focus on technology as the main line. The current market resembles the 1999 bull market, driven by policy and cyclical patterns. The technology sector is expected to lead earnings recovery, driving structural market performance [4][35] - The valuation of growth stocks is under scrutiny, with liquidity being a core driver of the bull market. Current valuations for technology stocks have not yet reached the levels seen in previous peaks, suggesting continued focus on AI applications in the coming year [4][35] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to benefit from increased pricing power of Chinese companies and stable liquidity, with a focus on pharmaceuticals and e-commerce as new catalysts. The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index saw significant fluctuations, with the latter experiencing a decline of over 10% in October after a 13.9% increase in September [4][25][28] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown resilience, with innovative drug companies performing well despite overall market adjustments. The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to provide a boost to the e-commerce sector [4][25][28]

Core Viewpoint - Merck is aggressively pursuing acquisitions and partnerships to diversify its product portfolio and mitigate the impending revenue loss from the expiration of key patents, particularly for its blockbuster drug Keytruda, which is expected to face significant sales declines by 2030 [6][23]. Group 1: Acquisition Strategy - Over the past three years, Merck has spent over $50 billion on acquisitions, with significant deals including the $11.5 billion acquisition of Acceleron Pharma in 2021, $10.8 billion for Prometheus Biosciences in 2023, and a planned $10 billion acquisition of Verona Pharma in 2025 [1][6]. - Merck's acquisition strategy includes a focus on various therapeutic areas such as oncology, autoimmune diseases, cardiovascular, respiratory, and ophthalmology, aiming to build a diverse product pipeline [3][8]. Group 2: Key Products and Partnerships - Merck has established partnerships worth over $30 billion with companies like Kura Oncology and Daiichi Sankyo to develop antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), enhancing its oncology pipeline [2][10]. - The company is also introducing new drugs, such as a cardiovascular treatment from Hutchison China MediTech for $2 billion, and is actively developing multiple ADC products in collaboration with partners [2][10]. Group 3: Revenue Challenges - The patent for Keytruda is set to expire in 2028, with projections indicating a potential sales drop of nearly 50% by 2030, leading to an anticipated revenue gap of around $15 billion [6][8]. - Sales of Merck's second-best-selling product, the HPV vaccine Gardasil, have also declined by 48% year-on-year, further exacerbating revenue concerns [7][8]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - Merck's acquisitions and partnerships are expected to yield several potential blockbuster drugs across various therapeutic areas, including the TL1A monoclonal antibody for inflammatory bowel disease and the dual-target COPD drug Ensifentrine [16][17]. - The company is also exploring innovative treatments in the ophthalmology sector, with a potential first-in-class Wnt antibody for diabetic macular edema [20]. Group 5: Strategic Outlook - Merck's recent acquisitions and partnerships are part of a strategic shift to prepare for the post-Keytruda era, aiming to fill revenue gaps and reshape the competitive landscape in the pharmaceutical industry [23].