2025年对拜耳来说是个转折点。截至11月24日，拜耳股价年内涨幅已超59%，成为老牌MNC阵营中的涨幅NO.1。 要知道，就在两年前，拜耳还深陷 "四面楚歌" 的绝境：收购孟山都带来的130亿欧元诉讼赔偿压得公司喘不过气，核 心药物Xarelto专利到期导致销售额暴跌，研发管线断层让投资者看不到希望，市值较2015年巅峰时期蒸发超70%。 而如今，在CEO 比尔·安德森铁腕改革的推动下，拜耳制药业务率先破冰——三季度核心新药销售额劲增，两款重磅 新药Acoramidis、Elinzanetant也先后获批，尤其是下一代抗凝药asundexian三期临床的"意外"成功，更是让市场看到了 真正的增长动能，直接推动股价单日暴涨10.91%。 拜耳，终于要迎来否极泰来的时刻了吗？ 意外转机 就在几周前，BMS和强生宣布终止其FXIa抑制剂milvexian的一项三期试验（针对急性冠脉综合征），原因同样是疗效 不达标。 在这一连串打击下，拜耳asundexian的成功无疑是该赛道的一剂强心针。 其次，这不仅是FXIa抑制剂类药物首次成功完成的三期研究，更为拜耳带来了一大重磅炸弹。 据拜耳统计，全球每年约有1200万人 ...

【文/观察者网 柳白】"中国制药业正处于走向全球的关口。"英国《经济学人》杂志网站11月23日刊文 指出，中国药企在新药研发、临床试验数量与国际合作方面迅速崛起，凭借快速迭代、成本低、临床资 源丰富以及"跟随式创新到首创式创新"转型，建立了领先优势。尽管美国希望减少对中国供应链的依 赖，但实际上，美国制造商和患者可能反而会越来越依赖中国。 报道称，继美国之后，中国是全球第二大创新药开发国，其企业去年开展了全球约三分之一的临床试 验，而十年前这一比例仅为5%。中国在癌症等关键研究领域也正快速发展。投资者已经注意到，今年 中国生物科技公司的股价上涨了110%，是美国同行的三倍多。 在过去大部分世纪里，新药发现一直由西方企业主导，即通常被统称为"大药企"的公司。如今格局已 变。这些公司正面临历史上最陡峭的"专利悬崖"：未来六年预计可创造逾3000亿美元收入的药物，将在 2030年前失去专利保护。为了填补空缺，欧美大型药企正全球搜寻潜力药物分子，而越来越多的发现来 自中国。 可是，这一时机却十分尴尬。 毕竟美国希望降低对中国供应链的依赖，美国政府担心中国对活性药物成分的"卡脖子"。而且白宫将收 紧对中国制药业的传闻不 ...

作者 | 武月 11月21日，礼来股价上涨1.59%，收于1059.70元/股，全球首家迈入"万亿美元俱乐部"的药企，也终于诞 生了。 一直以来，万亿美元市值是科技巨头的专属领地。2018年，苹果成为美股首家万亿美元的巨头，此后跟 进的8家企业中，6家均为科技公司，仅特斯拉与伯克希尔・哈撒韦两个 例外。 如今礼来的闯入，不仅再次改写了万亿市值俱乐部的行业构成，更彻底捅破了创新药行业的估值天花 板。 市场沸腾背后，是一场关于"价值逻辑"的重构。过去十年，创新药企的市值天花板被锚定在千亿美元， 国内在无数创新药企奋力攀爬，却始终难越雷池。 （来源：氨基观察） 转自：氨基观察 礼来的登顶证明，创新药的天花板，本质是想象力的天花板。当一款药物能撬动千亿美元市场、覆盖近 亿患者，传统估值模型便显得苍白。 并且，万亿美元并非终点。大多数达成这一里程碑的科技巨头，随后都实现了数万亿美元的市值。只不 过，专利周期的诅咒、技术迭代的焦虑、管线断层的风险……制药业的兴衰规律并未改变。 礼来用十年务实主义攀上巅峰，但这才是真正的试炼开端。 减肥药，推开万亿美元大门 礼来的万亿美元之路，始于一款GLP-1双靶点药物替尔泊肽。2023 ...

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly has become the first pharmaceutical company to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion, driven by strong demand for weight loss and diabetes medications, with its stock price rising nearly 40% this year [2][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - Eli Lilly's stock rose by 1.60% on Friday, contributing to a year-to-date increase of nearly 40% [2][3]. - The healthcare ETF in the U.S. has seen a rise of over 2% on Friday and a cumulative increase of 12% this year, reflecting growing investor enthusiasm for the pharmaceutical sector [5][6]. Group 2: Competitive Advantage - Eli Lilly is rapidly distancing itself from competitors due to the overwhelming advantage of its GLP-1 class drugs, with its weight loss drug Zepbound expected to dominate the market despite only launching at the end of 2023 [4][9]. - The company is on the brink of a significant new product cycle in biopharmaceuticals, with its oral weight loss candidate orforglipron being highlighted as one of the most important new product cycles in the industry [9][10]. Group 3: Future Prospects - Eli Lilly's management has indicated that global regulatory submissions for orforglipron are imminent, with expectations for a U.S. market launch next year [10]. - The company is also advancing in next-generation obesity compounds, with promising data from the second phase of the selective incretin agonist eloralintide, which showed a weight loss of 20.1% [11][12]. Group 4: Financial Considerations - Eli Lilly's largest shareholder, the Lilly Foundation, has been selling shares, with a record $2.4 billion in stock sold in Q4 2025, raising concerns about valuation [16][17]. - The company’s forward P/E ratio for 2026 is projected at 41 times, significantly higher than the pharmaceutical industry average of 16 times, leading to debates about its valuation [19]. - Forecasts suggest that Eli Lilly's two flagship drugs could generate annual sales exceeding $40 billion by 2026, potentially justifying the high valuation [20].

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly has become the first pharmaceutical company to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion, driven by strong demand for weight loss and diabetes medications, as well as a sector rotation of funds from technology to healthcare [1][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - Eli Lilly's stock rose by 1.60% on Friday, with a cumulative increase of nearly 40% this year, leading to a market capitalization surpassing $1 trillion [1][2]. - The healthcare ETF in the U.S. has increased by over 2% on Friday and has risen 12% year-to-date, reflecting growing investor enthusiasm for the pharmaceutical sector [4]. Group 2: Product Development and Sales - Eli Lilly's weight loss drug sales more than doubled year-over-year in Q3, generating $10.1 billion in revenue from diabetes treatment Mounjaro and weight loss drug Zepbound [5]. - The company is on the verge of launching its oral weight loss candidate orforglipron in the U.S. market next year, which is expected to significantly expand the target market due to its convenience [8]. - Eli Lilly's next-generation obesity compounds, such as eloralintide and retatrutide, are showing promising results, with eloralintide demonstrating a weight loss of 20.1% in Phase II trials [9][10]. Group 3: Valuation and Investor Sentiment - The largest shareholder, the Lilly Foundation, has been selling shares, with a record $2.4 billion in stock sold in Q4 2025, raising concerns about valuation as the company's forward P/E ratio is 41 times, significantly higher than the industry average of 16 times [11][12]. - Despite valuation concerns, projections indicate that Eli Lilly's two flagship drugs could generate over $40 billion in annual sales by 2026 and approach $60 billion by 2030, potentially justifying the high valuation [12]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's GLP-1 drugs are gaining a significant market share, surpassing competitors like Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in new obesity prescriptions [3]. - The company faces potential competition from other pharmaceutical giants like Amgen and Pfizer as it approaches a significant patent cliff, which could impact future revenue [13].

得益于减肥和糖尿病药物的强劲需求推动，礼来公司成为全球首家跻身万亿美元俱乐部的制药企业。 周五礼来美股股价收涨1.60%，今年已累计上涨近40%。公司市值突破1万亿美元，加入了科技七巨头以及巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦在内的万亿 美元市值企业行列。 （周五礼来收涨 1.60%） 用于治疗糖尿病的Mounjaro和用于减肥的Zepbound在该季度合计创造了101亿美元的收入。Morningstar医疗研究主管Karen Andersen表示： 目前很难找到礼来战略的漏洞。一切都对礼来有利。 她指出，去年8月新型减肥药物orforglipron试验结果令人失望导致股价下跌，"这是我能想到的礼来唯一的负面消息"。 Neuberger Berman投资组合经理Rick Bradt则表示，礼来股价近几周的快速上涨部分源于投资者从追逐人工智能增长的大型科技公司转向其他板 块。他说： 华尔街见闻提及，礼来凭借其GLP-1类药物的压倒性优势，正迅速拉开与竞争对手的差距。 尽管礼来的减肥药Zepbound在2023年底才上市，但随着产能的提升和新临床数据的出现，已成功超越诺和诺德的Wegovy，占据了新增肥胖症药物 处方的绝大 ...

在利润丰厚的减肥药市场争夺战中，天平正发生决定性倾斜，礼来公司（Eli Lilly）正朝着首家万亿美 元市值制药企业的目标迈进。 据《华尔街日报》11月18日分析，减肥药热潮即将催生一家万亿美元市值的公司——礼来。凭借其 GLP-1类药物的压倒性优势，礼来正迅速拉开与竞争对手的差距。 最新的市场动态显示，礼来已在这场竞争中取得决定性领先。其减肥药Zepbound尽管在2023年底才上 市，但随着产能的提升和新临床数据的出现，已成功超越诺和诺德的Wegovy，占据了新增肥胖症药物 处方的绝大多数份额。 这一转变清晰地反映在市场估值上。自2024年3月以来，礼来的市值从超过7000亿美元飙升至约9700亿 美元，而当时市值超过5000亿美元的诺和诺德，如今已跌至约2000亿美元。 而礼来的增长故事或许才刚刚开始。近期与特朗普政府达成的一项协议，通过降价换取了更广泛的联邦 医保（Medicare）和潜在的医疗补助计划（Medicaid）覆盖，此举有望为其减肥药带来约4000万名新患 者，极大地拓宽了市场基础。 此前，供应短缺一度限制了礼来和诺和诺德的增长。但据报道，两家公司目前都已解决了产能问题。更 重要的是，礼来 ...

Core Viewpoint - Merck (MSD) has acquired Cidara Therapeutics for approximately $9.2 billion, focusing on the innovative flu drug CD388, which has shown a 76% efficacy in preventing flu in clinical trials, significantly higher than traditional vaccines [1][2][5] Acquisition Details - The acquisition price of $221.50 per share reflects Merck's strong recognition and urgent need for Cidara's core asset, CD388 [5] - Following the announcement, Cidara's stock surged over 105%, reaching its highest level since 2017, while Merck's stock saw a slight increase of 0.74% [5][6] Market Potential - If CD388 is approved, it could tap into a market worth over $10 billion, leveraging Merck's established commercialization network [2][8] - The global flu vaccine market is projected to grow from $5.8 billion in 2020 to $8.9 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.2% [10] Competitive Landscape - CD388's dual mechanism of action, combining direct pathogen targeting and immune activation, positions it as a potential "First-in-Class" preventive flu drug, addressing the limitations of current vaccines [7][12] - The drug's safety profile and ability to provide protection for 4-5 months with a single dose could fill significant gaps in the current flu prevention market [8][12] Strategic Rationale - Merck's acquisition aligns with its strategy to mitigate the impending patent cliff of its leading cancer drug, Keytruda, which is expected to lose patent protection by 2028, potentially resulting in a $18 billion revenue loss [6][13] - The acquisition is seen as a proactive move to secure new growth engines and reduce uncertainty in the company's future performance [2][5]

Core Insights - Merck (MSD) has acquired Cidara Therapeutics for approximately $9.2 billion, primarily for its innovative flu drug CD388, which has shown a prevention efficacy of up to 76% in Phase 2 clinical trials [1][2][3] - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to mitigate the impending patent cliff of Merck's leading cancer drug Keytruda, which is expected to lose patent protection by 2028, potentially resulting in a revenue loss of around $18 billion [4][9] - The market reacted positively to the acquisition, with Cidara's stock surging over 105% following the announcement, reflecting strong investor confidence in the potential of CD388 and Merck's long-term value [3][4] Company Strategy - Merck aims to strengthen its pipeline in the infectious disease sector, leveraging Cidara's proprietary Cloudbreak platform technology to enhance its portfolio of immune-activating anti-infection drugs [2][9] - The acquisition price of $221.50 per share indicates Merck's high regard for Cidara's core asset CD388 and its urgent need for new growth drivers amid stagnant performance [2][3] - Merck's recent financial performance shows total revenue of $48.611 billion for the first three quarters, with pharmaceutical revenue at $43.299 billion, highlighting the need for new products to sustain growth [3][4] Market Potential - If CD388 receives regulatory approval, it could tap into a market worth over $10 billion, given its superior efficacy compared to traditional vaccines [2][6] - The global flu vaccine market is projected to grow from $5.8 billion in 2020 to $8.9 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.2%, indicating a robust demand for flu prevention products [7] - CD388's unique mechanism of action could address significant gaps in the current flu prevention market, particularly for populations that are vaccine-averse or have inadequate responses to vaccines [8][9] Innovation and Future Outlook - The CD388 drug represents a shift from traditional vaccines to innovative preventive therapies, potentially revolutionizing flu prevention and opening avenues for treatments against other viral diseases [9][10] - The FDA has granted CD388 breakthrough therapy designation and fast track status, which could expedite its path to market if Phase 3 trials are successful [6] - The global flu treatment market is expanding steadily, and innovative therapies like CD388 are expected to create high-growth opportunities within this space [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has performed well this year, with the Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) achieving approximately 45% returns, although this may seem modest compared to higher-performing ETFs like the Communication ETF (515880) [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market initially rose this year, driven by the innovative drug sector that began gaining traction at the end of last year, primarily due to the sale of research and development results to overseas markets [1][2] - The "patent cliff" in the U.S. is causing original drug manufacturers to face significant profit declines as patents expire, leading to increased competition from generic drug manufacturers [1][2] - The innovative drug sector in Hong Kong has benefited from the ability to produce new drug patents, aligning with U.S. market needs, thus creating a favorable supply-demand dynamic [2][3] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks several indices, including the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which has outperformed others due to its diverse industry coverage, including innovative drugs, telecommunications, and new energy vehicles [3] - The performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index has lagged due to its lack of exposure to the pharmaceutical sector, which has been a significant driver of market performance this year [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Outlook - The Hong Kong market has entered a consolidation phase since early October, while the A-share market continues to rise, indicating a slight lag in performance between the two markets [4][7] - The Hong Kong market is influenced by both domestic economic conditions and overseas liquidity, particularly from U.S. Federal Reserve policies, which can significantly impact market performance [4][6] - The current U.S. government shutdown and liquidity tightening are expected to limit short-term upward movement in the Hong Kong market, with a likelihood of remaining in a consolidation phase unless unexpected changes occur in U.S. monetary policy [6][7]