Core Viewpoint - MiniMax's Q4 2025 financial results significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations, driven by explosive growth in API demand and efficient R&D investment [3][6]. Revenue Growth - MiniMax achieved a net income of $26 million in Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 131%, surpassing Morgan Stanley's forecast of $19 million by 32% and Bloomberg's consensus of $18 million by 43% [6][4]. - Revenue from AI-native products reached $15 million, up 82% year-over-year, attributed to the release of Hailuo 2.3/Speech 2.6 and upgrades to Hailuo AI's internal functions [6][5]. - The API platform and other enterprise services generated $11 million in revenue, a staggering 278% increase compared to the previous year, driven by the launch of models M2, M2.1, and M2-her [6][5]. R&D Efficiency - MiniMax's R&D expenses for Q4 were $72 million, significantly lower than Morgan Stanley's expectation of $107 million, indicating high R&D efficiency [7][6]. - The company's gross margin improved to 29.7%, up from 23.3% in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting better cost management and product optimization [7][6]. - The adjusted net loss for Q4 was $68 million, much better than the expected loss of $122 million, showcasing improved financial performance [7][6]. Future Demand and Commercial Prospects - Strong demand data for early 2026 was reported, with daily token consumption for the M2 series models increasing over sixfold compared to December 2025, and token consumption for coding solutions growing tenfold [9][8]. - Morgan Stanley predicts a 159% revenue growth for MiniMax in 2026, driven by robust API demand [9][8]. - High competition in the global market is noted, with MiniMax's M2.5 model ranking first on the OpenRouter platform, and an estimated annual recurring revenue (ARR) of approximately $40 million from API usage [9][8]. Institutional Ratings - Morgan Stanley has a bullish outlook on MiniMax, setting a target price of 1000 HKD, citing the company's technological strength and multi-modal commercialization potential [11][10]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral rating with a target price of 1018 HKD, recognizing MiniMax's positioning in the AI model sector and its ability to capture significant market growth [11][10].

3月2日，摩根大通和高盛双双发布研报，对中国AI大模型公司MiniMax2025年第四季度及全年财报进行了解读。摩根大通写道： 我们没有看到任何特别不利的数据。 | 农. 1: MINIMax 业绩四视 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年底截至 12月 31 日 | | | 4Q25 | | | 4Q24A | 同比 | | 百万美元 | 实际 | 摩根大通预测 | 差幅 | 市场一致预期 | 差幅 | | | | 净收入 | 26 | 19 | 32% | 18 | 43% | 11 | 131% | | Al 原生产品 | 15 | 12 | 24% | | | 8 | 82% | | 开放平台及其他企业服务 | 11 | 7 | 45% | | | 3 | 278% | | 毛利润 | 8 | 3 | 144% | 2 | 272% | 3 | 136% | | 销售与营销费用 | (13) | (10) | 25% | | | (34) | -63% | | 研发费用 | (72) | (107) ...