Key Takeaways ASML saw China contribute 27% of Q1 2025 revenues, driven by strong DUV lithography system demand. EUV system exports to China remain restricted under U.S. and Dutch trade controls. ASML stated steady customer behavior but warned of rising uncertainty amid global trade tensions.ASML Holding’s (ASML) sales to China accounted for 27% of first-quarter 2025 total revenues, which was way higher than the earlier expectations of low-20% levels. This increase came mainly from strong demand for Deep ...

Core Insights - The demand for data centers is expected to significantly boost semiconductor stocks for years to come, with companies like NVIDIA leading the market with over 80% share in GPUs [1][2]. Group 1: Semiconductor Companies - ASML is a leader in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, essential for producing advanced chips required for AI applications, achieving 52% year-over-year revenue growth in its latest quarter [3][6]. - Applied Materials provides key technologies for chip manufacturing, including processes necessary for high-performance AI chips, and is expected to see revenue growth of 6.5% to $29 billion by 2025 [7][9]. - KLA specializes in yield management, helping manufacturers improve efficiency and reduce defects in chip production, with analysts raising price targets in anticipation of strong earnings [12][13]. Group 2: Market Trends and Projections - The shift towards more power-efficient chips in hyperscale data centers is driving the need for advanced semiconductor technologies [2][4]. - Generative AI workloads necessitate cutting-edge GPUs and specialized accelerators, which rely on precision manufacturing equipment [5]. - Analysts have set a consensus price target of $923.80 for ASML, indicating a potential gain of over 16%, while KLA's stock is currently above its consensus price target, reflecting strong market expectations [6][12].

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ASML will report its 2Q25 earnings on July 16, and we summarise the key themes and our latest perspectives on the company. Key focus areas include: (1) Key drivers underpinning ASML's growth expectations for 2026; (2) The extent to which AI will continue to drive demand for leading-edge Logic/Memory chips; (3) The cadence of orders required in the coming quarters to reach sell-side consensus estimates for 2026; and (4) The trajectory of Lithography intensity following the Gate-All-Around architectural trans ...

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Group 1: Company Overview - ASML Holding and Lam Research are essential players in the semiconductor equipment industry, with ASML leading in lithography technology and Lam Research focusing on etching and deposition systems, complementing each other in the chipmaking process [1][3] - ASML is the only company capable of producing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines at scale, necessary for manufacturing chips at 5nm, 3nm, and soon 2nm levels, which are critical for AI processors and data centers [3][4] - Lam Research builds tools for manufacturing next-generation semiconductors, including high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging, which are vital for AI and cloud data centers [7][8] Group 2: Financial Performance - ASML reported a revenue growth of 46% and a 93% increase in earnings per share in Q1 2025, with an expected revenue increase of 15% for the full year [5][6] - Lam Research's Q3 fiscal 2025 revenues reached $4.72 billion, up 24.5% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.04, reflecting a 33.3% increase [10][11] - Lam Research's non-GAAP operating margin improved to 32.8% in Q3, with further expansion projected in Q4, indicating effective management of supply-chain risks [12][13] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - ASML's exposure to China is a concern, with 41% of its shipments in 2024 going to that market, and U.S. export restrictions could limit future sales [6] - Lam Research's shipments for gate-all-around nodes and advanced packaging exceeded $1 billion in 2024, with expectations to triple to over $3 billion in 2025, indicating strong demand [9][11] Group 4: Investment Comparison - Year-to-date, ASML shares have risen 14.1%, while Lam Research shares have increased by 33.9% [14] - ASML trades at a forward earnings multiple of 27.34X, higher than Lam Research's 24.17X, suggesting Lam Research is more reasonably priced given its stronger near-term momentum [15] - Lam Research is currently viewed as the better investment option due to better recent stock performance, improving margins, strong product demand, and a lower valuation [17][19]

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Key Takeaways AMAT's EPIC Center will be its largest research site, set to open in early 2026 to drive chip innovation. The hub will co-locate chipmakers to collaborate on gate-all-around, power delivery, and packaging. AMAT expanded its CEA-Leti alliance to boost ICAPS and AI chip innovation within the EPIC ecosystem.Applied Materials (AMAT) is betting big on innovation with its new EPIC Center, expected to begin operations in the first half of 2026. EPIC, short for Equipment and Process Innovation and C ...

Core Insights - ASML Holding N.V. is advancing its High-NA EUV lithography systems, crucial for the future of advanced chipmaking, with the fifth NXE:5000 system shipped in Q1 2025 and deliveries of the NXE:5200 model starting in Q2 2025 [1][9] Group 1: Technology and Customer Feedback - The High-NA systems enable chipmakers to produce smaller and more complex features with fewer steps and improved yields, receiving positive feedback from major clients like Intel and Samsung [2] - Intel reported over 30,000 wafers exposed in a single quarter using the High-NA tool, reducing process steps from 40 to less than 10, while Samsung achieved a 60% reduction in cycle time on one layer [3] Group 2: Adoption Phases and Future Outlook - ASML's High-NA technology is currently in phase one, focused on research and development, with mass production expected to begin around 2026-2027, followed by full adoption in later phases [4][9] - The company is working to enhance tool productivity and reliability in real-world applications, positioning itself to lead the next phase of semiconductor innovation [5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Applied Materials and KLA Corporation are also significant players in advanced chipmaking tools, focusing on complementary technologies that could benefit from ASML's High-NA rollout [6][7] Group 4: Financial Performance and Valuation - ASML's shares have increased approximately 14.8% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 6.1% gain [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASML's earnings indicates a year-over-year increase of about 31.6% for 2025 and 11.1% for 2026, with recent upward revisions for 2025 estimates [11] - ASML trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 8.2, higher than the sector average of 6.62 [13]

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