Core Financial Performance - The company reported net income of $6.2 million, or $0.88 per diluted share, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, compared to $4.1 million, or $0.60 per diluted share, for the same quarter in 2024, marking a significant year-over-year increase [1] - For the nine months ended June 30, 2025, net income was $17.9 million, or $2.57 per diluted share, compared to $9.9 million, or $1.45 per diluted share, for the same period in 2024 [9] Revenue and Income Analysis - Net interest income increased by $2.2 million, or 15.1%, to $16.7 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, driven by an increase in interest income and a decrease in interest expense [3] - Noninterest income rose by $1.3 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, primarily due to gains from sales of SBA loans and home equity lines of credit [5] Expense Management - Noninterest expense increased by $1.3 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, mainly due to higher compensation and benefits related to stronger company performance [6] - The efficiency ratio improved to 64.45% for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, compared to 70.11% for the same period in 2024, indicating better cost management [30] Asset Quality and Credit Losses - The company recognized a provision for credit losses of $347,000 for loans and $77,000 for unfunded lending commitments for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, compared to higher provisions in the same period of 2024 [4] - Nonperforming loans decreased from $16.9 million at September 30, 2024, to $15.2 million at June 30, 2025, reflecting improved asset quality [4] Capital and Equity Position - Total stockholders' equity increased by $6.7 million, from $177.1 million at September 30, 2024, to $183.8 million at June 30, 2025, primarily due to retained earnings [18] - The company maintained a "well-capitalized" status under applicable regulatory capital guidelines as of June 30, 2025 [18] Strategic Outlook - The company is optimistic about continued profitability and growth in the SBA Lending segment, with a robust lending pipeline for the fourth fiscal quarter [2] - Focus areas include customer deposit growth, selective loan growth opportunities, and prudent capital and liquidity management [2]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has experienced a significant decline of 32.1% over the past three months, underperforming the broader Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, which fell by only 5.2% [1][5] Company Performance - UPST's stock has been more adversely affected compared to peers like SoFi Technologies (SOFI), LendingClub (LC), and Enova International (ENVA) [1] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/sales (P/S) multiple of 3.83X, which is higher than the industry average of 3.48X [6] - Compared to major fintech rivals, UPST trades at a premium to LendingClub (1.15X) and Enova International (0.7X), while being at a discount to SoFi Technologies (4.13X) [8] - Shares have dropped 53% from the 52-week high of $96.43, reached on February 13, and are down 26.5% year to date (YTD) [9] Market Context - The recent decline is attributed more to broader market headwinds, including a tech sell-off and fears of a global economic slowdown, rather than company-specific issues [5] - The decline is viewed as a painful correction rather than a fundamental weakness, suggesting potential long-term value [4][9] Technological Edge - Upstart Holdings utilizes artificial intelligence (AI) to assess borrower creditworthiness, moving beyond traditional FICO scores to include factors like education and employment history [10] - In Q1 2025, 92% of loans processed were fully automated, leading to faster approvals and lower operating costs [11] - The company is expanding into new verticals such as auto loans, HELOCs, and small-dollar emergency loans, with notable growth in auto loan originations (42% QoQ) and HELOCs (52% QoQ) [12] Innovation and Growth - Upstart's AI models are continuously evolving, with the latest model (Model 19) enhancing predictions by tracking borrowers' repayment stages [14] - The conversion rate has improved from 14% to 19% year over year, indicating effective technology [15] - Total revenues increased by 67% year over year to $213 million, with a non-GAAP EPS of 30 cents, a significant improvement from a loss of 31 cents in the previous year [16] Future Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 indicates a robust year-over-year revenue growth of 59%, with an EPS forecast of $1.46, up from a loss of 20 cents in 2024 [17] - Despite trading at a relatively high valuation, the core growth story remains intact, suggesting that holding the stock may be advisable for long-term investors [18]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping 20% over the past month, which raises questions about whether investors should hold or exit the stock. Despite near-term challenges, the long-term growth potential of Upstart remains strong, suggesting that holding the stock may be advisable [1][8]. Market Context - The recent decline in Upstart Holdings' stock is attributed more to broader market weaknesses rather than specific company issues. A tech sell-off driven by fears of a global economic slowdown and trade tensions has negatively impacted high-growth stocks, including UPST [2]. Valuation Insights - Upstart Holdings is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/sales (P/S) multiple of 3.73X, which is higher than the industry average of 3.2X. Compared to major fintech competitors, UPST trades at a premium to LendingClub (1.19X) and Enova International (0.76X), but at a discount to SoFi Technologies (3.79X) [3][6]. Stock Performance - Shares of Upstart Holdings have decreased by 54.4% from their 52-week high of $96.43, reached on February 13. Year-to-date, the stock is down 28.6%, contrasting with a 36.7% gain at its peak in February [7]. Operational Performance - Upstart Holdings reported a 56% year-over-year increase in net revenues, reaching $219 million, and a 30% year-over-year increase in revenue from fees, totaling $199 million. Loan origination volume surged by 89% year-over-year, with 246,000 loan transactions, including 162,000 new borrowers [15][16]. Technological Advancements - The company utilizes AI and machine learning to assess creditworthiness, moving beyond traditional FICO scores. In Q4 2024, 91% of loans were fully automated, enhancing efficiency and competitiveness in the personal lending market [9][10]. The introduction of advanced AI models, such as Model 19, has improved risk assessment and loan performance predictions [12][13]. Future Growth Potential - Upstart Holdings is expanding into auto lending, home equity lines of credit (HELOC), and small-dollar relief loans, with significant growth reported in these areas. Auto originations and HELOCs both grew by 60%, while small-dollar loans surged by 115% quarter-over-quarter [11]. Financial Strength - The company achieved adjusted EBITDA of $39 million and is close to GAAP profitability, with a net loss of only $2.8 million. The non-GAAP EPS improved to 29 cents, a significant turnaround from previous losses [17][18]. Revenue growth guidance for 2025 indicates a continued upward trajectory, with a projected 59% increase [19].

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings (UPST) and SoFi Technologies (SOFI) represent two distinct business models within the fintech industry, with UPST focusing on AI-driven credit assessment and automation, while SOFI offers a diversified digital financial platform. The analysis suggests that UPST may present a smarter investment opportunity compared to SOFI due to its higher growth potential and favorable valuation metrics. Upstart Holdings - Upstart Holdings utilizes artificial intelligence and machine learning to evaluate creditworthiness, moving beyond traditional FICO scores to include various factors such as education and employment history [1] - In Q4 2024, 91% of Upstart's loans were fully automated, leading to reduced costs and faster approvals, enhancing its competitive edge in personal lending [2] - The company is expanding into auto lending, home equity lines of credit (HELOC), and small-dollar loans, with auto originations and HELOCs both increasing by 60%, and small-dollar loans surging by 115% quarter over quarter [3] - For Q4 2024, Upstart reported a 56% year-over-year revenue increase and achieved a non-GAAP profit of $0.29 per share, a turnaround from a loss of $0.11 in the previous year [4] - Upstart's revenue growth guidance indicates a 57% increase for Q1 and 59% for the full year of 2025, suggesting continued momentum [4] SoFi Technologies - SoFi Technologies operates as a comprehensive digital financial platform, offering banking, investing, lending, and personal finance tools, supported by a national bank charter for low-cost loan funding [5] - In Q4 2024, SoFi added 785,000 new members, the highest in its history, and improved product-per-user metrics through effective cross-selling strategies [6] - The company is exploring enhancements in cryptocurrency services, which aligns with current regulatory trends and ambitions to position the U.S. as a leader in the crypto space [7] - SoFi's Q4 2024 revenue and non-GAAP EPS grew by 19% and 150% year-over-year, respectively, but its growth rates lag behind those of Upstart [8] - For the full year of 2025, SoFi expects a revenue growth of only 24%, significantly lower than Upstart's forecast [8] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past 12 months, Upstart Holdings shares have returned 46.9%, outperforming SoFi Technologies' 25.7% gain [9] - Both companies have similar forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiples around 3X, but Upstart's P/S ratio of 3.08 is below its one-year median of 5.26, indicating potential for upside [10] - SoFi's P/S multiple of 3.03 is in line with its historical average, suggesting that much of its expected growth is already reflected in its stock price [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Upstart Holdings indicates a 59.3% year-over-year increase in sales and a staggering 785% increase in EPS for 2025, with positive trends in EPS estimates over the past 60 days [12] - In contrast, SoFi Technologies' 2025 sales and EPS are expected to grow by 23.9% and 66.7%, respectively, with recent downward trends in EPS estimates [15] Conclusion - Upstart Holdings is positioned for higher growth due to its innovative AI-driven models and favorable valuation metrics, while SoFi Technologies, despite its strengths, shows slower growth potential [16][17]