高盛：NVDA 财报后评 20251121 摘要 英伟达财报超预期，市场反应积极，投资者虽对库存和应收账款有所担 忧，但整体认为数据向好，为未来业绩奠定积极基调，预计明年一、二 季度增速将达 80%左右。 英伟达 500 亿美元收入预测基于订单簿，主要来自超大规模客户、 OpenAI 及政府客户等，目前已交付三分之一，剩余部分预计在 2025- 2026 年转化为收入。 英伟达与博通等公司合作构建 26 吉瓦数据中心容量，但交易尚未完全 敲定，收入或无法完全在 2026 年实现。应收账款问题需关注客户（如 OpenAI）的融资来源。 英伟达安培产品已出货 5-6 年仍在运行，若 Hopper 芯片也能持续 4-6 年，将增强更新周期的可信度，超大规模客户假设芯片使用寿命为 4-6 年，若能实现将更具经济效益。 考虑到英伟达的增长潜力，跨周期正常收益至少为 8 美元，并应用 30 倍乘数。即使可能出现过度发货情况，总体上仍被视为成长型股票。 Q&A 英伟达最新财报中有哪些特别值得关注的点？ 英伟达的最新财报显示，公司表现非常强劲，尤其是数据中心收入在本季度增 长了 59%。毛利率保持强劲，但中国市场的数据已经脱 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cloud services industry, particularly for AWS, with projected growth rates of 18%-20% in the coming years [1][4]. Core Insights - AWS shows strong order backlog and demand in both AI and non-AI sectors, similar to competitors Azure and GCP [1][3]. - NVIDIA's Blackwell chip procurement by the top four cloud providers is expected to reach $65-70 billion in 2025, with AWS capturing a smaller share compared to Microsoft and Google due to its in-house chip strategy [1][5]. - AWS's profit margin has decreased by 600 basis points due to stock incentive adjustments, but revenue growth is expected to rebound to around 30% in the upcoming quarters [8]. Summary by Sections AWS Growth and Performance - AWS is projected to achieve growth rates of 18%-19% in the second half of 2025 and 20% in the first half of 2026, with AI companies contributing significantly to revenue growth [1][4]. - Annual recurring revenue from AI companies is expected to increase from $1 billion to $4-5 billion, contributing approximately 2% to overall growth [4]. Capital Expenditure and Strategy - Capital expenditures are primarily directed towards AWS for power and data center construction, with an annualized increase of approximately $30 billion [2][9]. - There are indications that AWS may introduce AMD instance services, which could diversify its offerings but still rely heavily on NVIDIA's dominance in the cloud market [7]. Competitive Landscape - Meta's advancements in GPU machine learning are expected to enhance user engagement and profitability, with EPS projections for 2026 reaching $33, potentially rising to $35 with strong performance [12]. - Google's cloud business is performing well, with partnerships with AI-native companies and advancements in technologies like Gemini, positioning it for significant growth in 2026 [14][15].