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大摩重磅报告:人形机器人大战,中美打了个平手
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-19 17:00
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the humanoid robot industry is poised to become a major sector in China's economy, potentially reaching a market size of 60 trillion yuan by 2050, with significant advancements in technology and manufacturing capabilities [3][8]. Industry Overview - The humanoid robot industry is being recognized as the next "crown jewel" of manufacturing, following the automotive industry [2]. - The evolution of manufacturing is closely tied to the revolution in the humanoid robot sector, benefiting from advancements in smart automotive products [5]. Market Potential - Morgan Stanley predicts that humanoid robots will become a key theme in technology investment over the next decade, with China dominating the supply chain, accounting for 63% of the market [8]. - The total potential market size for humanoid robots could reach 60 trillion USD, comparable to the global economy [8]. Technological Advancements - China leads in the number of humanoid robot patents, with 5,688 patents in the last five years, significantly outpacing the US and Japan [12]. - The humanoid robot industry is divided into three core segments: "brain" (AI chips/software), "body" (industrial components), and integrators (complete humanoid robot developers) [10]. Competitive Landscape - In the top 100 global humanoid robot companies, Chinese firms (including Taiwan) and US firms each account for 35% [25]. - Chinese companies excel in hardware technology, while US firms are stronger in software research [26]. Automotive Industry Involvement - Major automotive companies, including GAC, Xpeng, BYD, and Tesla, are increasingly investing in humanoid robot technology as a new growth avenue [30]. - The cost of developing humanoid robots is estimated to be one-third lower for automotive companies compared to traditional robot manufacturers [31]. Financial Insights - The projected net profit for chip companies focused on the "brain" segment is approximately 265.5 billion yuan, significantly higher than the profits from the "body" and integrator segments [34][35]. Future Outlook - The humanoid robot market is expected to experience explosive growth over the next 30 years, with market size projected to expand from 1 billion yuan in 2025 to 609.2 billion yuan [49]. - The period from 2030 to 2034 may see the highest annual growth rates, potentially exceeding 140% [50]. Policy and Support - The Chinese government is actively supporting the humanoid robot industry, with significant investments in talent and infrastructure, including 127 robot industrial parks and a central government funding increase of 217% since 2020 [52].