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股指月报:持续上涨后,波动加剧-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 15:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report After continuous previous increases, high - level hot sectors such as AI have recently shown divergence, while sectors like energy storage, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Market trading volume has shrunk, and short - term index fluctuations will intensify. However, in the long - run, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the main idea for the medium - to - long - term is to go long on dips [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: The CSRC held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for the capital market with listed companies and industry institutions; during holidays, non - ferrous metal futures such as precious metals, copper, and aluminum closed higher; foreign capital had a net inflow of $4.6 billion into the Chinese stock market in September; the global energy storage demand is booming; many chip giants have raised product prices; the German government plans to build the world's first nuclear fusion power plant; the US government is on the verge of a shutdown [12]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In August 2025, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year; from January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment grew by 0.5%; in July, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year; China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0; in August 2025, M1 growth was 6.0%, M2 growth was 8.8%; the increase in social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan; in August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year and imports increased by 1.3% year - on - year [12]. - **Interest Rate and Credit Environment**: This week, both the 10Y Treasury bond rate and the credit bond rate declined, the credit spread changed little, and liquidity was tight at the end of the quarter [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term as the valuation is at a moderately low level and IM has a long - term discount; hold IF long positions for six months as a new round of interest rate cuts is expected to benefit high - dividend assets [14]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and other major stock indexes all rose, with the Hang Seng Index rising 3.88%, the Dow Jones Index rising 1.10%, and the Nasdaq Index rising 1.32% [17]. - **Futures Contract Performance**: All futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM showed increases, with varying degrees of growth in different contract periods [18]. 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: In the second quarter of 2025, GDP actual growth was 5.2%; in September, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.8; in August, consumption growth was 3.4%; exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year; investment growth was 0.5% [38][41][44]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In the 2025 semi - annual report, the year - on - year growth of operating income was flat, with a slight 0.4% increase quarter - on - quarter; the year - on - year growth of net profit was 2.5%, with a 1.0% decline quarter - on - quarter [47]. 3.4 Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest Rate**: This week, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and the 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate both declined [51]. - **Credit Environment**: In August 2025, M1 growth was 6.0%, M2 growth was 8.8%; the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan [61]. 3.5 Capital Flow - **Inflow**: In September, the newly established equity - biased fund shares were 9.1453 billion; the margin trading balance in the two markets continued to grow significantly, reaching 241.2391 billion yuan [68][71]. - **Outflow**: This week, the net shareholding increase of major shareholders was - 4.373 billion yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 0 [74]. 3.6 Valuation - **Price - Earnings Ratio (TTM)**: The PE of SSE 50 was 11.76, CSI 300 was 14.22, CSI 500 was 35.23, and CSI 1000 was 47.98. - **Price - to - Book Ratio (LF)**: The PB of SSE 50 was 1.28, CSI 300 was 1.48, CSI 500 was 2.34, and CSI 1000 was 2.54 [79].