Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ADP employment figures in the US in October significantly exceeded expectations, reversing the downward trend from the previous month's revised data, indicating signs of stabilization in the labor market, and the ISM Services PMI reached a new high in nearly 8 months. However, due to the ongoing government shutdown in the US and the delay in official data release, the market has concerns about the economic and employment outlook, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in December remains volatile [2]. - Despite being affected by overseas markets, A - shares showed resilience. The index remained in the consolidation range after breaking through 4000 points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 1% this week, returning to the 4000 - point level. The large - cap broad - based indices were relatively stronger, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 rising about 0.8% for the week, leading the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2]. - The trading volume this week decreased significantly compared to last week, with the average daily volume less than 2 trillion. The inflow of margin trading slowed down, and the market entered a phase of volume - contraction game [2]. - The "dividend + micro - cap" old dumbbell structure returned in terms of style. The CSI Dividend and micro - cap stock indices led the core indices, while the Beijing Stock Exchange and Sci - tech Innovation Board lagged behind [2]. - The basis of all varieties weakened slightly compared to last week. The premium of IH narrowed to less than 1%, and the annualized discounts of IF, IC, and IM reached 2.5%, 9.9%, and 12.7% respectively, still at the lower quartile in the past three years. The near - end of the term structure declined slightly, with little overall change from last week, and long - short diversified hedging can still be maintained [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Forecast Conclusion of Basis Direction - This week's model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will move in the directions of strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and weakening respectively next week [4]. Recent Forecast Conclusion - Specific data on the predicted basis changes of IH, IF, and IC are provided, but the information is presented in a somewhat disorganized manner in the text [3]. This Week's Review - The ADP employment data in the US in October reversed the previous decline, and the ISM Services PMI reached a new high, but market concerns persisted due to the government shutdown and data delay. The A - share market showed resilience despite overseas shocks, with the index rising and the large - cap broad - based indices performing better. The trading volume decreased, and the "dividend + micro - cap" style returned. The basis of all varieties weakened slightly [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report After continuous previous increases, high - level hot sectors such as AI have recently shown divergence, while sectors like energy storage, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Market trading volume has shrunk, and short - term index fluctuations will intensify. However, in the long - run, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the main idea for the medium - to - long - term is to go long on dips [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: The CSRC held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for the capital market with listed companies and industry institutions; during holidays, non - ferrous metal futures such as precious metals, copper, and aluminum closed higher; foreign capital had a net inflow of $4.6 billion into the Chinese stock market in September; the global energy storage demand is booming; many chip giants have raised product prices; the German government plans to build the world's first nuclear fusion power plant; the US government is on the verge of a shutdown [12]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In August 2025, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year; from January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment grew by 0.5%; in July, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year; China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0; in August 2025, M1 growth was 6.0%, M2 growth was 8.8%; the increase in social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan; in August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year and imports increased by 1.3% year - on - year [12]. - **Interest Rate and Credit Environment**: This week, both the 10Y Treasury bond rate and the credit bond rate declined, the credit spread changed little, and liquidity was tight at the end of the quarter [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term as the valuation is at a moderately low level and IM has a long - term discount; hold IF long positions for six months as a new round of interest rate cuts is expected to benefit high - dividend assets [14]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and other major stock indexes all rose, with the Hang Seng Index rising 3.88%, the Dow Jones Index rising 1.10%, and the Nasdaq Index rising 1.32% [17]. - **Futures Contract Performance**: All futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM showed increases, with varying degrees of growth in different contract periods [18]. 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: In the second quarter of 2025, GDP actual growth was 5.2%; in September, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.8; in August, consumption growth was 3.4%; exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year; investment growth was 0.5% [38][41][44]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In the 2025 semi - annual report, the year - on - year growth of operating income was flat, with a slight 0.4% increase quarter - on - quarter; the year - on - year growth of net profit was 2.5%, with a 1.0% decline quarter - on - quarter [47]. 3.4 Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest Rate**: This week, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and the 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate both declined [51]. - **Credit Environment**: In August 2025, M1 growth was 6.0%, M2 growth was 8.8%; the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan [61]. 3.5 Capital Flow - **Inflow**: In September, the newly established equity - biased fund shares were 9.1453 billion; the margin trading balance in the two markets continued to grow significantly, reaching 241.2391 billion yuan [68][71]. - **Outflow**: This week, the net shareholding increase of major shareholders was - 4.373 billion yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 0 [74]. 3.6 Valuation - **Price - Earnings Ratio (TTM)**: The PE of SSE 50 was 11.76, CSI 300 was 14.22, CSI 500 was 35.23, and CSI 1000 was 47.98. - **Price - to - Book Ratio (LF)**: The PB of SSE 50 was 1.28, CSI 300 was 1.48, CSI 500 was 2.34, and CSI 1000 was 2.54 [79].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Last week, the market showed a relatively strong performance. The power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors led the gains, while the social services, comprehensive, and commercial retail sectors led the losses. Despite different interpretations of the financial system leaders' press conference at the beginning of the week and no release of favorable policies, the index soon recovered from the adjustment and continued to rise in the middle of the week. The message environment remained stable over the weekend with improved corporate profit data last month and the central bank's third - quarter monetary policy meeting, which is beneficial for the pre - holiday market to pass smoothly. - This week has only two trading days, followed by an 8 - day holiday. Although the expected impact of events such as the US government shutdown and US non - farm payroll data during the holiday is limited, due to the long holiday and many uncertainties, investors are advised to hold light positions during the holiday. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Stock Index Performance**: - Global stock indices showed mixed performance last week. In the US, the Dow Jones index fell 0.15%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.31%, and the Nasdaq index fell 0.65%. In Europe, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.74%, the German DAX index rose 0.42%, and the French CAC40 index rose 0.22%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.69%, and the Hang Seng index fell 1.57%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21%. [10][16][17] - Among domestic major indices, most rose last week. The CSI 300, CSI 500, and other indices also had different performances. [15] - In terms of industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, there were also mixed gains and losses. For example, in the CSI 300 index, the information sector rose 5.25%, while the consumer sector fell 2.67%. [19] - **Futures Market**: - Among the futures contracts last week, the IM2509 contract had the largest increase, and the IC2509 contract had the largest amplitude. - The trading volume of stock index futures declined, while the open interest increased. - The basis (futures - spot) of stock index futures and the cross - variety ratio also showed certain trends. [21][25][26] - **Index Valuation**: - As of September 26, the price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 300 index was 14.04 times, and that of the SSE 50 index was 11.68 times. The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 500 index was 34.45 times, and that of the CSI 1000 index was 46.86 times. [27][28] - **Market Liquidity**: - The two - market margin trading balance and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in the figures. - The capital interest rate price rebounded last week, and the central bank had net investment. [30][31] 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively. [5] - **Trend Strategy**: Go long on dips. It is expected that the core operating range of the IF2510 main contract is between 4407 and 4634 points; the IH2510 main contract is between 2872 and 3004 points; the IC2510 main contract is between 6987 and 7455 points; the IM2510 main contract is between 7100 and 7578 points. [5] - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM). [6] 3.3 Factors to Watch Domestic PMI data and US non - farm payroll data. [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of rising [1][5] - The core logic is the game between the short - term profit - taking intention of funds and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy positive expectations [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term profit - taking intention of funds and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy positive expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties are IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5] - The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The full - day turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 236.7 billion yuan, an increase of 6.39 billion yuan from the previous day. The credit data in August was weak, the consumption growth slowed down, and the inflation data was still weak, indicating weak demand in the real sector. There is a strong expectation of policies to stabilize demand, with the key window period for policy introduction expected to be in October. In terms of funds, incremental funds continue to flow into the stock market, as shown by the large increase in non - bank deposits in July and August and the high - level operation of margin trading balances. However, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks, there is still an intention for profit - taking, leading to short - term technical adjustment pressure on the stock index. The subsequent focus is on the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - This week reached the "September 3rd" critical window period, with index trends mainly driven by sentiment. Market expectations cooled, long - term interest rates declined, and there was a value regression after structural overheating in various sectors. Leveraged funds had continuous net outflows, and broad - based indexes fell with shrinking trading volume. The U.S. manufacturing industry was in trouble, the labor market cooling trend was confirmed, and the certainty of a September interest rate cut increased. In terms of basis, the discount widened since the end of August, and the basis of JH and IF weakened slightly this week, while that of IC and IM recovered [2]. - The model predicts that the basis of IH and IF will strengthen next week, while the basis of IC and IM will weaken [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance This Week - After structural overheating in various sectors, there was a value regression. Sectors with concentrated financing and institutional funds faced corrections. Concepts such as optical modules and national defense and military industry had large correction amplitudes, while battery and energy storage sectors led the rise. Leveraged funds had continuous net outflows, and the margin balance declined daily after peaking on September 1st. Broad - based indexes fell with shrinking trading volume, ending four consecutive weekly declines. Small - cap stocks broke through support levels, while large - cap indexes were relatively resilient. The weekly decline of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 was about 1%, the CSI 1000 declined by 2.6%, and the STAR 50 declined by more than 5% [2]. - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for six consecutive months, the employment index was at its weakest level since the pandemic, JOLTS employment data was not optimistic, ADP employment growth slowed significantly, and the labor market cooling trend was confirmed, increasing the certainty of a September interest rate cut [2]. - Since the end of August, the discount has continued to widen. The basis of JH and IF weakened slightly this week compared with last week, while the basis of IC and IM recovered. The annualized discounts were around 8% and 9.5% respectively, and the discount inversion of IC and IM was lifted. The current term structure of each variety has a higher near - end, and near - end hedging is the main strategy. As the basis of each contract basically returned to the normal position, the profit of the spot - futures arbitrage strategy was realized [2]. Next - Week Forecast - The model predicts that the basis movement directions of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week are: strengthen, strengthen, weaken, and weaken respectively [3]

Report Summary 1. Market Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.31 with a 0.20 bp increase, DR007 at 1.44 with a 0.78 bp decrease, GC001 at 1.00 with a 2.50 bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.46 with a 2.00 bp increase. SHBOR 3M remained unchanged at 1.55, and LPR 5 - year stayed at 3.50 [3]. - **Bond Yields**: 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.34, 1.58, and 1.77 respectively, with the 1 - year and 5 - year bonds down 0.50 bp and the 10 - year up 0.05 bp. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.23, up 1.00 bp [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4490, down 0.74%; the SSE 50 at 2993, up 0.39%; the CSI 500 at 6962, down 2.09%; and the CSI 1000 at 7314, down 2.50%. The trading volume of the two A - share markets reached 28750 billion, 1250 billion more than the previous day [4]. 2. Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 2557 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 4058 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1501 billion yuan. This week, 22731 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [3]. 3. Market Analysis - **Market Sentiment**: Yesterday, the macro news was calm, but small - and medium - cap stocks fell significantly due to profit - taking and increased risk - aversion. Large - cap stocks were relatively stable. The market liquidity is abundant, with A - share daily trading volume above 2.5 trillion [4]. - **Economic Indicators**: China's manufacturing PMI in August rose slightly to 49.4%, indicating economic resilience. Overseas, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased [4]. 4. Investment Strategy - Short - term long positions can be shifted towards IF or IH to reduce portfolio volatility and risk [4].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Core View - Fed's July meeting minutes show increasing internal divergence and no hint of a September rate cut, while the unexpectedly high US manufacturing PMI in August may change market expectations for a September rate cut [2] - Domestic policy intensity has marginally converged recently, and the main driving forces for the index are the "93 consensus" and institutional clustering. A - shares are not affected by the continuous decline of Hong Kong and US stocks due to the support of mainland margin - trading funds. The margin balance has increased significantly, and the total A - share trading volume has soared. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 index was the strongest this week, with a gain of over 13%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3800 points [2] - The rise of the index this week has further pushed up the basis of various varieties. The annualized discounts of IC and IM have converged to 5.5% and 6.7%, and the term structure near - end and inter - period spreads have increased. There is a large profit space for cash - and - carry arbitrage in IH and IF September contracts, and the annualized hedging cost of near - month contracts of IC and IM is only about 2%, which may lead to an increase in the scale of neutral strategies [2] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen, remain flat, weaken, and weaken respectively next week [2] Summary by Related Contents Market Background - The Fed's internal divergence is increasing, and it is facing a trade - off between inflation and employment risks. The unexpectedly high US manufacturing PMI in August may affect the expected September rate cut [2] - Domestic policy intensity has marginally converged, and the main driving forces for the index are the "93 consensus" and institutional clustering. Geopolitical situation is calm, and A - shares are supported by mainland margin - trading funds [2] Market Performance - The margin balance has increased significantly, with a net purchase of over 80 billion this week. The total A - share trading volume is about 2.5 trillion per day. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 index was the strongest this week, with a gain of over 13%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3800 points [2] Basis and Spread - The rise of the index has further pushed up the basis of various varieties. The annualized discounts of IC and IM have converged to 5.5% and 6.7%, and the term structure near - end and inter - period spreads have increased [2] - The September contracts of IH and IF have an annualized premium of over 6% and 7% respectively, with a large profit space for cash - and - carry arbitrage. The annualized hedging cost of near - month contracts of IC and IM is only about 2% [2] Forecast - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen, remain flat, weaken, and weaken respectively next week [2]

Group 1 - The market sentiment is expected to continue its recovery post-holiday, with domestic stimulus policies entering the implementation phase, presenting a potential trend-following opportunity in the A-share market [1][7] - The S&P 500 index has seen a continuous rise for nine trading days as of May 2, marking the longest streak since 2004, largely due to easing global trade disputes and better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][3] - The Chinese stock market sentiment index showed a slight improvement by the end of April, indicating a change in the trend of declining sentiment, with the A-share market expected to experience a recovery in sentiment post-holiday [2][3] Group 2 - The Chinese economy's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1, with domestic demand and export support being key drivers, suggesting an improvement in economic growth momentum [4][6] - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party emphasized the need for proactive macro policies, indicating a faster implementation of fiscal and monetary policies to counter external shocks [6][7] - The A-share market's earnings expectations remain stable, particularly for large-cap indices like the CSI 300 and SSE 50, suggesting resilience in the face of external pressures [5][7] Group 3 - The potential for capital outflow due to significant RMB depreciation highlights the importance of domestic stimulus policies to support demand resilience [2][6] - The offshore RMB's strength has positively impacted the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rebounding by 1.74% on May 2 [2][3] - The market's trading logic may shift from earnings expectations to valuation levels as the earnings season concludes, with low PE/G ratios indicating subdued profit growth expectations [3][4]