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名创优品(MNSO):非交易路演要点:营收目标不变,利润率压力将逐步收窄;买入
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-28 05:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month target price of $23.40 for ADR and HK$46.00 for H-shares, reflecting a potential upside of 27.9% and 33.1% respectively [15][17]. Core Insights - Management reiterated its target for accelerated revenue growth in 2025, aiming for a year-on-year increase of 23% compared to 2024, with a focus on achieving low teens percentage growth in Miniso China sales and approximately 40% growth in overseas business [1][5]. - Despite expected slight declines in gross profit margins this year, management anticipates healthy operating profit growth for the year, with margins expected to narrow sequentially in Q2 and return to positive territory in Q3 [1][5]. - The company plans to close 300-400 underperforming or outdated stores in China, with expectations of stabilizing or slightly decreasing the number of new stores in the second quarter, but anticipates a return to store growth in the latter half of the year [1][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Management expects revenue growth to accelerate in 2025, driven by positive sales and store productivity improvements, with a target of opening 500 to 600 new stores, of which 40% to 45% will be DTC stores [5][16]. - For Top Toy, management anticipates a year-on-year revenue growth of approximately 50% to 60% and plans to add 100 new stores [5]. Profit Margins - Operating profit is projected to recover to positive growth in Q3, with a target operating profit of RMB 3.6 billion to RMB 3.8 billion for the year, compared to RMB 3.2 billion last year [5][16]. - Management noted that while the operating profit margin may experience slight declines due to macroeconomic factors and DTC expansion, the pressure on margins is expected to gradually narrow [1][5][7]. Store Network and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its store network, with plans to close underperforming stores while aiming for a net increase in store count in the latter half of the year [1][11]. - In the U.S. market, Miniso will concentrate on 24 states to achieve better economies of scale and reduce operational costs, while also optimizing its product mix to cater to local consumers [6][10]. Product Mix and Market Adaptation - The product mix includes a focus on toys and lifestyle products, with a strategy to increase local sourcing to mitigate potential tariff risks [10][12]. - Management aims to enhance the contribution of third-party products to diversify the product range while maintaining overall gross margin stability [12].