SCARLETT: WELCOME TO ETF IQ WE HAVE SOME BIG ECONOMIC DATA POINTS TO GET THROUGH. KATIE: LET'S GET TO THE BIGGEST STORIES RIGHT NOW. 19 TRILLION DOLLAR GLOBAL ETF INDUSTRY AND IS THE LAST FULL TRADING WEEK FOR THE YEAR WITH STOCKS WIPING OUT THEIR GAINS ON THE SESSION AS PEOPLE PREPARE FOR THAT DELAYED U.S. JOBS REPORT.SCARLETT: BLACKROCK'S JEFFREY ROSENBERG WILL HAVE HIS EYES ON THAT. KATIE: PLUS IN A MOMENT WE WILL SPEAK WITH SOMEONE FROM RBC CAPITAL MARKETS ABOUT THE VIEWS INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE UNITED S ...

Market Overview - The current market is characterized as "sloppy," with mixed indices indicating potential consolidation or rollover [2] - Cautious stock selection is emphasized, focusing on avoiding negative market events [3] Growth Stocks - Growth stocks are viewed as a double-edged sword; their collapse would negatively impact the market, yet a rotation into other sectors could be healthy [4][5] - The technology sector, particularly represented by the ARK ETF, is under pressure due to concerns around tech valuations [5] Economic Indicators - The gold-silver ratio serves as an inflationary indicator, with recent highs in silver and its relationship with US dollar levels noted [7] - Predictions suggest silver could reach $75 to $85 per ounce, while gold could rise to $4,700 to $5,000 if silver experiences significant movement [8] - Energy and commodity prices are highlighted as traditional inflation measures, with spikes in sugar and cattle prices serving as potential inflation signals [8] Consumer Behavior - A shift in consumer behavior due to weight loss drugs may drive growth in associated stocks and alter spending patterns [11] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors where AI is driving innovation, such as biotech and digital content [13] - The importance of taking profits as part of trade and risk management is emphasized, with a focus on adaptability to market cycles while maintaining optimism about long-term economic evolution driven by innovation [14]

Core Insights - The article provides a detailed overview of net flows across various asset classes in the ETF market, highlighting significant trends in investor behavior and asset allocation [1] Summary by Category Net Flows - Total net flows across all ETFs amounted to $3,273.93 million, indicating a slight increase of 0.02% in assets under management (AUM) [1] - The US Fixed Income category saw the highest net inflow of $1,778.67 million, representing a 0.10% increase in AUM [1] - International Equity also experienced significant inflows of $849.68 million, with a minimal increase of 0.04% in AUM [1] Asset Class Performance - Commodities ETFs recorded net inflows of $663.09 million, with a 0.22% increase in AUM [1] - In contrast, US Equity faced net outflows of $206.12 million, showing no change in AUM percentage [1] - Alternatives and Currency categories experienced net outflows of $8.18 million and $8.03 million respectively, with negligible changes in AUM [1] Other Notable Trends - International Fixed Income saw net inflows of $320.87 million, reflecting a 0.09% increase in AUM [1] - Leveraged ETFs had net outflows of $154.25 million, resulting in a decrease of 0.10% in AUM [1] - The Inverse category recorded a small net inflow of $11.75 million, with a 0.08% increase in AUM [1]

Market Overview - The core stock market ETFs, particularly the Semiconductors Sector ETF (SMH) and the Biotechnology Sector ETF (IBB), show optimism similar to the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and NASDAQ 100, with SMH reaching a new all-time high while IBB remains below its peak from 2021 [1] - The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is just below its all-time high established two weeks ago, indicating mixed price action that is more neutral than bullish [3] Sector Performance - The Retail Sector ETF (XRT) and Regional Banks ETF (KRE) are identified as the weakest links among core ETFs [2] - The Transportation Sector ETF (IYT) is barely above the 50-Day Moving Average and has been underperforming relative to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), indicating a divergence in performance [3][4] - The IYT has been stuck in the middle of the monthly high and low, with two closes above the 50-DMA needed for a positive outlook [5] Economic Drivers - The underperformance of the U.S. Transportation Sector can be attributed to structural, cyclical, and investor-sentiment factors, including weak freight/demand growth and rising operational costs [4][8] - A shift in the economy towards services and digital goods is reducing the growth of heavy goods movement, impacting transportation sector performance [8] - Investor perception of a potential slowdown or mild recession is leading to early discounting of transportation stocks compared to other sectors [8]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a positive start to the week, with the S&P and NASDAQ both up, while the Dow remains unchanged and the Russell is slightly above unchanged [1] - There is a bullish sentiment regarding the continuation of the market rally, particularly in the technology and cryptocurrency sectors, which are seen as leading indicators [2][3] Market Predictions - The market could potentially rise by at least 20% by 2026, drawing parallels to the internet boom of the late 1990s, with the current AI boom being a significant factor [4][5] - Despite short-term overbought conditions, dips in the market have been shallow and aggressively bought, indicating a strong upward trend [6] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in a non-recessionary environment, which is viewed as a favorable setup for market growth [7] Bubble Concerns - There is acknowledgment of the AI bubble, which is expected to grow larger before it eventually bursts, prompting a proactive approach to risk management [8][9] Investment Strategy - A strategy of buying the dip is recommended rather than a buy-and-hold approach, especially in technology stocks, which are likely to be hit hardest when the bubble bursts [10][12] - Diversification is advised, with suggestions to include gold and defensive sectors such as utilities, staples, and healthcare [11][12] Sector Performance - Small caps have been outperforming the S&P over the last three months, and this trend is expected to continue, along with financials benefiting from a lower interest rate environment [14][15] - Consumer discretionary stocks have also been increased in the portfolio, indicating a broadening of investments beyond just high-flying tech stocks [15] Investment Vehicles - ETFs are preferred for small cap investments due to their volatility, with specific holdings like IWM being utilized for exposure [16]

Group 1 - The FDA is phasing out animal testing, which is a positive development for companies like Certara that operate in the bio simulation space [1] - There is a notable increase in GDX, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] - The Russell 2000 index is experiencing a delay in performance, showing signs of a massive triple top formation, suggesting potential selling opportunities for IWM [1]

Group 1 - SoFi shares have reached an all-time high, with expectations for upgrades to boost the stock price in the coming week [1] - Clearway Energy is highlighted for its 6.5% dividend yield, with a focus on growing earnings and dividends despite market rhetoric about clean energy [2] - The healthcare sector within small caps is noted, with a significant weighting of 16% in the IWM index [2] Group 2 - CrowdStrike's stock has increased by $50, indicating strong market performance [2]

SCARLET: WELCOME TO BLOOMBERG ETF IQ. I'M SCARLET FU. >> I'M KATIE GREIFELD.PEOPLE WILL SAY WE WORE THE SAME THING, BUT YOU HAVE VERY COOL SHOES. SCARLET: WE DID THIS BECAUSE IT WAS ALIGNED WITH THE MARKET DIRECTION. >> YOU ARE RIGHT, THIS WAS COMPLETELY PLANNED.WE START WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP WANTING TO SCRAP QUARTERLY EARNINGS REPORTS IN FAVOR OF RELEASES EVERY SIX MONTH. IN JUST A FEW MOMENTS, WE WILL SPEAK ABOUT THE HUGE SHIFT THAT THAT WOULD CREATE. SCARLET: WE DISCUSS OPPORTUNITIES IN ASSET-BACKED SECUR ...

ETF Market Overview - ETF net flows are over $789 billion year to date [1] - Investors are slightly buying the dip on the Triple Q's following Nvidia earnings [2] ETF Inflows - Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund (VGIT) saw the top inflows this week [2] - iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), representing small caps, experienced significant inflows [2] - Investment grade corporate bond ETF (LQD) also saw substantial inflows [2] Active Management & JGRO ETF - JP Morgan suggests active management with the JGRO ETF, emphasizing bottoms-up research and individual stock valuation [3] - JGRO ETF focuses on large-cap growth, considered a suitable strategy in an environment driven by a few key stocks [3] - JGRO ETF is up double digits year to date, performing closely to the S&P 500 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the shift from large tech stocks to value stocks is more significant than the Federal Reserve's policies for the stock narrative [1][3] - Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, the market remains robust, indicating that the current interest rate narrative will intensify the rotation from tech stocks to value stocks [1][3] - The potential for a rate cut in September is acknowledged, but the timing remains uncertain, with the Fed's policy still dependent on economic data [1] Group 2 - Companies sensitive to economic conditions are expected to benefit the most from the current situation, which is favorable for value stocks [3] - The rotation from tech stocks to value stocks is seen as positive for the QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, and beneficial for the IWM ETF, which tracks the Russell 2000 [3]