2025 年 9 月公司与中粮集团旗下中粮名庄荟正式签署战略合作协议，标志着公司在国内市场战略布局 再度提速。一方面依托中粮名庄荟覆盖全国的超百万终端网络与多元渠道资源，助力公司快速突破区域 壁垒，实现产品全域覆盖，为业绩高增与区域拓展奠定坚实基础；另一方面借力央企品牌背书，强化品 牌形象，有助于提升产品全国曝光与消费者认知度。 加强本地化运营，管理效率升级 2025 年 11 月公司与上海西虹桥科创发展有限公司签署合作协议，正式落户虹桥国际中央商务区并设立 If 品牌中国区总部。后续公司将完成上海办公室核心团队搭建，配备销售、市场、营销等关键职能人 员，增设专职渠道管理岗位，针对性解决终端窜货、价格紊乱等行业痛点，全面规范渠道运营秩序，提 升本地化管理与响应效率。 风险提示：宏观经济下行风险、市场竞争加剧风险、成本上涨风险。 2025 年椰子水行业竞争加剧，主品牌 If 椰子水凭借纯天然品质与先发品牌优势，销售表现好于行业及 竞品，持续巩固头部地位，2026 年有望继续领跑赛道。 副品牌 Inno coco 全年销售承压，年底已完成大商整改与合作伙伴扩容，叠加高性价比电解质饮料新品 落地，2026 年有望重 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [4] Core Views - The company has initiated systematic adjustments in core areas such as products, management, and channels since Q4 2025, alongside a share buyback plan that enhances operational confidence, thereby strengthening the fundamental logic [4] - Due to intensified industry competition, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected net profits of $0.33 million (down $0.05 million), $0.48 million (down $0.07 million), and $0.61 million (down $0.10 million) respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 0.3%, 43.0%, and 27.9% [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $186 million, $249 million, and $311 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.8%, 34.1%, and 24.6% respectively [9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 18.7, 13.1, and 10.2 times [9] - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 32.0% for 2025 and a net margin of 18.0% [9] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The main brand, If Coconut Water, is performing better than the industry and competitors due to its natural quality and first-mover advantage, expected to continue leading the market in 2026 [5] - The secondary brand, Inno Coco, faced sales pressure but has completed major adjustments and expanded partnerships, with new high-value electrolyte beverage products expected to drive growth in 2026 [5] Strategic Partnerships and Expansion - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with COFCO's subsidiary, which will enhance the company's domestic market strategy by leveraging COFCO's extensive distribution network, facilitating nationwide product coverage [6] - The establishment of the If brand's China headquarters in Shanghai aims to improve local operations and management efficiency, addressing industry challenges such as price disorder and channel management [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The company has initiated systematic adjustments in core areas such as products, management, and channels since Q4 2025, alongside a share buyback plan that enhances operational confidence. The fundamental logic has been strengthened, although profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards due to increased industry competition. Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at $0.33 billion (-$0.05), $0.48 billion (-$0.07), and $0.61 billion (-$0.10), representing year-on-year growth of 0.3%, 43.0%, and 27.9% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 18.7, 13.1, and 10.2 for the respective years [4] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The coconut water industry is experiencing intensified competition in 2025. The main brand, If Coconut Water, is performing better than the industry and competitors due to its natural quality and first-mover advantage, and is expected to continue leading the market in 2026. The secondary brand, Inno Coco, faced sales pressure throughout the year but has completed major adjustments and expanded partnerships, with new high-value electrolyte beverage products expected to drive growth in 2026, creating a second growth curve for the company [5] Strategic Partnerships - In September 2025, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with COFCO's subsidiary, COFCO Mingzhuanghui, marking a significant acceleration in its domestic market strategy. This partnership leverages COFCO Mingzhuanghui's extensive network of over one million terminals and diverse channel resources to help the company overcome regional barriers and achieve nationwide product coverage, laying a solid foundation for high growth and regional expansion. Additionally, the collaboration enhances brand image through the endorsement of a state-owned enterprise, improving national exposure and consumer recognition [6] Operational Efficiency - In November 2025, the company established its China headquarters in the Hongqiao International Central Business District through a partnership with Shanghai Xihongqiao Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd. This move will facilitate the building of a core team in Shanghai, including sales, marketing, and channel management personnel, aimed at addressing industry challenges such as channel disorder and price inconsistencies, thereby enhancing localized management and response efficiency [7] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2023A is $87 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.0%. For 2024A, revenue is expected to reach $158 million, reflecting a growth of 80.3%. The estimates for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are $186 million, $249 million, and $311 million respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 17.8%, 34.1%, and 24.6%. The net profit for 2023A is projected at $17 million, with a growth of 0.0%, and is expected to reach $33 million in 2024A, maintaining the same level in 2025E, before increasing to $48 million and $61 million in 2026E and 2027E respectively, with growth rates of 43.0% and 27.9% [9]