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Diageo(DEO) - 2025 H2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-05 09:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is planning for a more cautious consumer environment in the US for fiscal 2026, indicating a focus on managing inventory levels and achieving normalized stock levels [10][11] - Organic sales guidance for fiscal 2026 is expected to be similar to fiscal 2025, with a potential acceleration in the second half of the year [15][16] - The company anticipates a $50 million reduction in starting EBIT due to disposals, with additional impacts from the sale of Ghana and Seychelles breweries [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The spirits segment in Europe has faced pressure, but the company views this as an opportunity to better control outcomes by focusing on local markets and consumer dynamics [11][12] - The company is focusing on driving growth in key brands such as Don Julio and Guinness, despite organic sales declines [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The US market is expected to be cautious, with a stretched consumer wallet impacting sales [28][29] - The company is optimistic about the potential for growth in the Asia Pacific region, particularly in China, despite recent challenges [30][31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is reorganizing to capture growth opportunities by being more locally focused and occasion-led in various markets [12][13] - There is a clear strategy to enhance commercial execution at the point of sale, with a focus on training and upskilling resources [17][18] - The company is committed to premiumization and expanding its portfolio, particularly in the tequila segment [40][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the current macroeconomic pressures but believes that moderation trends in consumer behavior present new opportunities [65][66] - The company remains confident in the long-term growth potential of the US spirits market despite short-term pressures [79][80] Other Important Information - The company is implementing changes to its currency hedging strategy to reduce volatility and align hedge targets with operating profit exposure [36][37] - The company plans to reinvest 50% of cost savings into better commercial execution and digitization efforts [70][71] Q&A Session Summary Question: US depletion outlook and inventory message - Management indicated that inventory levels have normalized and they are planning for a cautious consumer environment in the US for fiscal 2026 [10][11] Question: Investment in Europe and spirits portfolio - Management acknowledged the pressure on the spirits portfolio in Europe but sees it as an opportunity for better control and growth [11][12] Question: Organic sales guidance for fiscal 2026 - Management expects organic sales guidance for fiscal 2026 to be similar to fiscal 2025, with potential acceleration in the second half [15][16] Question: Impact of disposals on EBIT - Management confirmed a $50 million reduction in starting EBIT due to disposals, with additional impacts from recent sales [21][22] Question: Focus on moderation trends - Management noted that moderation trends are here to stay and the company is looking to tap into this with a broader range of products [65][66] Question: Reinvestment of cost savings - Management stated that 50% of cost savings will be reinvested into commercial execution and digitization efforts [70][71]
Diageo(DEO) - 2025 H2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-05 09:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is planning for a more cautious consumer environment in the US for fiscal 2026, indicating a focus on managing inventory levels and achieving normalized stock levels [8][9] - Organic sales guidance for fiscal 2026 is expected to be similar to fiscal 2025, with a potential acceleration in the second half of the year [14][30] - The company anticipates a $50 million reduction in starting EBIT due to disposals, with additional impacts from recent sales in Ghana and Seychelles [22][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The spirits segment in Europe has faced pressure, but the company sees this as an opportunity to better control outcomes by focusing on local markets and consumer dynamics [9][10] - The company is focusing on driving growth in key brands such as Don Julio, Guinness, and Johnny Walker, despite organic sales declines [20][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The US market is expected to be cautious, with consumer wallets still stretched, impacting sales performance [28][30] - In Asia Pacific, particularly China, the market has been more challenged outside of the Chinese New Year, but the company is optimistic about future growth opportunities [29][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is reorganizing to capture growth opportunities by being more locally focused and occasion-led, particularly in Southern Europe [10][11] - There is a clear strategy to enhance commercial execution at the point of sale, with a focus on training and upskilling resources [18][47] - The company is committed to premiumization and expanding its portfolio, particularly in the tequila segment [40][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the current macroeconomic pressures but believes that moderation trends in consumer behavior present new growth opportunities [62][70] - The company is focused on balancing growth across its portfolio, with an emphasis on both volume and price mix [56][59] Other Important Information - The company is actively managing its portfolio, with ongoing disposals of non-core assets while maintaining a focus on core brands [86] - There is a commitment to reinvest 50% of cost savings into better commercial execution and digitization efforts [70][71] Q&A Session Summary Question: US depletion outlook and inventory message - Management indicated that inventory levels have normalized and they are planning for a cautious consumer environment in the US for fiscal 2026 [8][9] Question: Organic sales guidance for fiscal 2026 - Management expressed confidence in achieving a similar organic sales performance to fiscal 2025, with expectations for acceleration in the second half [14][30] Question: Impact of disposals on EBIT - Management confirmed a $50 million reduction in EBIT due to disposals, with additional impacts from recent sales in Ghana and Seychelles [22][30] Question: Focus on the Astral brand in the US - Management sees significant growth potential for the Astral brand in the super premium segment and is optimistic about its scaling [40][41] Question: Changes in US route to market - Management highlighted the importance of both increasing the number of salespeople and enhancing their effectiveness through training and focused execution [46][47] Question: Structural headwinds and moderation trends - Management acknowledged the ongoing moderation trend but emphasized the company's ability to innovate and adapt to consumer preferences [62][70]
Diageo(DEO) - 2025 H2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-05 07:07
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 1.7% organic sales growth, or 1.5% before the impact of the Syrah transaction in North America [4] - Organic profit declined by 0.7%, including the Syrah transaction impact, and declined by 1% excluding this [4] - Free cash flow was $2.7 billion, up $100 million from last year, reflecting solid working capital management [5] - EPS pre-exceptionals declined almost 9%, mainly due to a significantly lower contribution from Moire Tennessee and adverse FX [5] - Recommended full year dividend remained flat compared to last year, deemed prudent given the current backdrop [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Positive organic sales growth was observed in almost all regions, although operating profits were adversely impacted by increased overheads [4] - In North America, U.S. spirits net sales grew 1.6% organically with a positive price mix of 2.9% [32] - In India, growth was driven by prestige and above whiskey, with the UK-India free trade agreement expected to support future growth [30] - In Europe, Guinness was a main driver of growth, recovering from a period of consumer down trading [46] - In Africa, organic net sales growth was led by Ghana, while Brazil benefited from a more stable environment through premiumization [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Trading conditions remained challenging due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in key markets like the U.S. and China [29] - The company held or grew market share in 65% of total net sales in measured markets, including the U.S. [29] - Consumer sentiment remains subdued, with 25% of consumers indicating saving money as a top reason for moderating their TBA consumption [24] - Gen Z household penetration of spirits increased by six percentage points to 55% in 2024 compared to 2020 [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is sharpening its strategy to leverage its portfolio and competitive strengths in an evolving TBA landscape [7] - The Accelerate program aims to deliver $625 million in cash savings over the next three years, focusing on operational excellence and cost efficiency [10] - The company is committed to delivering approximately $3 billion of free cash flow per annum from fiscal 2026 [21] - There is a focus on digital investment to leverage data for actionable insights and consistent metrics [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management believes spirits remain an attractive sector long-term, supported by favorable demographics and increasing female per capita consumption [22] - Near-term pressures on the sector are viewed as largely cyclical and driven by the macroeconomic environment [24] - The company expects organic net sales growth to be slightly negative in fiscal 2026, with growth skewed to the second half [57] - Management is focused on instilling confidence in the team and leveraging the strength of the brand portfolio for future growth [62] Other Important Information - The company announced significant exceptional charges totaling $1.4 billion, including a $450 million charge related to Distill Ventures and a $230 million impairment charge for Aviation Gin [52][53] - Closing net debt was $21.9 billion, which was $800 million higher than at the start of the year due to unfavorable foreign exchange movements [54] - The leverage ratio increased to 3.4 times net debt adjusted EBITDA, above the target range of 2.5 to 3 times [54] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for organic net sales growth in fiscal 2026? - The company expects similar rates of organic net sales growth to those seen in fiscal 2025, with a cautious outlook for the consumer environment [56][57] Question: How is the company addressing the impact of tariffs? - The company anticipates a 10% rate for UK imports and a 15% rate for European imports into the U.S., expecting to mitigate 50% of the impact in the first year [59] Question: What is the focus of the Accelerate program? - The Accelerate program is focused on delivering cash savings, improving operational efficiency, and driving better growth through a more agile operating model [10][11]
Diageo(DEO) - 2025 H2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-05 07:05
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 1.7% organic sales growth, or 1.5% before the impact of the Syrah transaction in North America, with organic profit declining 0.7% including the Syrah transaction impact and 1% excluding it [4][5] - Free cash flow was $2.7 billion, up $100 million from last year, reflecting solid working capital management [5][48] - EPS pre-exceptionals declined almost 9%, mainly due to a significantly lower contribution from Moire Tennessee and adverse foreign exchange [5][49] - Reported net sales were broadly flat at £20.2 billion, with positive organic growth offset by the net impact of acquisitions and disposals as well as unfavorable foreign exchange [42][43] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North America, U.S. spirits net sales grew 1.6% organically with a positive price mix of 2.9%, driven by strong performance in tequila brands like Don Julio and Crown Royal [30][31] - In Europe, Guinness continued to drive growth, delivering double-digit organic net sales growth despite a challenging beer market [31][44] - In Asia Pacific, positive volume growth was particularly noted in India, while price mix declined due to consumer down trading in Southeast Asia and China [43][44] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company gained market share in 65 of its total net sales in measured markets, including the U.S., despite challenging trading conditions [27] - In India, growth was driven by prestige and above whiskey, with the UK-India free trade agreement expected to support future growth potential [28] - In Africa, organic net sales growth was observed across all markets, led by Ghana [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is sharpening its strategy to leverage its portfolio and competitive strengths, focusing on commercial execution and optimizing trade investments [7][8] - The Accelerate program aims to deliver $625 million in cash savings over the next three years, with a commitment to drive better growth alongside cost-cutting measures [9][13] - The company is committed to delivering approximately $3 billion of free cash flow per annum from fiscal 2026, supported by mid-single-digit organic operating profit growth and reduced CapEx [20][54] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management believes that the spirits sector remains attractive long-term, supported by favorable demographics and increasing female per capita consumption [21][22] - Near-term pressures on the sector are viewed as largely cyclical and driven by the macroeconomic environment, with consumer sentiment remaining subdued [23][25] - The company expects organic net sales growth to be slightly negative in fiscal 2026, with growth skewed to the second half of the year [54] Other Important Information - The company announced a flat full-year dividend, which is considered prudent given the current economic backdrop [5] - Significant exceptional charges of $1.4 billion were reported, including a $450 million charge related to Distill Ventures and a $230 million impairment charge for Aviation Gin [49][50] - The company is focused on optimizing its supply chain and has announced a new manufacturing and warehousing facility in Montgomery, Alabama [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for organic net sales growth in fiscal 2026? - The company expects organic net sales growth to be slightly negative, with growth skewed to the second half of the year due to various factors [54] Question: How is the company addressing the challenges in the spirits sector? - The management is focused on leveraging its brand portfolio and optimizing commercial execution to drive growth despite the cyclical pressures [25][26] Question: What are the plans for cash flow and capital expenditures? - The company aims to deliver approximately $3 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2026, with a reduced CapEx spend expected to trend to mid-single digits as a percentage of net sales [20][54]