文 | 时代周报 近日，中药老字号企业片仔癀频现新药研发动态，相继发布了1.1类中药创新药温胆片和化学药品1类创 新药PZH2108片的研发进展情况。这家以片仔癀产品为核心的老牌中药企业，也在化药创新药研发领域 取得进展。 据片仔癀公告介绍，PZH2108片IIa期临床试验采用多中心、随机、双盲、安慰剂对照设计，以"治疗期 不良事件及安全性评估异常的发生及严重程度"作为主要终点。该临床试验方案已获得牵头单位河南省 肿瘤医院医学伦理委员会审核同意，并于2025年11月14日完成首例受试者入组。截至公告日11月21日， 该药物项目的研发投入(未经审计)累计约6100万元。 对于同类产品情况，片仔癀公告介绍，根据全球疾病负担研究数据，2021年，癌症患者中约44.5%会经 历不同程度的癌症疼痛，约有797万癌痛患者。根据2016-2021年癌症病例的发展趋势及癌痛患病率，预 计到2033年，癌痛患者数量将会突破1200万人。阿片类药物为目前癌痛的常规治疗药物。经查询药智网 数据库，2024年，中国医院销售端的镇痛阿片碱类药物销售规模达104.78亿元。 11月21日，片仔癀（600436.SH）发布公告称，近日，公 ...

Investment Strategy - Investing in stocks for a long period, such as 30 years, can lead to significant wealth accumulation through compounding returns [1] - A well-defined strategy and commitment to endure market fluctuations are essential for investors [1][2] - Understanding personal risk tolerance and spreading investments across various asset classes and sectors is crucial for capitalizing on diverse growth opportunities [2] Healthcare Industry Opportunities - The healthcare industry offers substantial opportunities for notable portfolio returns over decades [3] - Vertex Pharmaceuticals and DexCom are highlighted as two companies with strong long-term growth potential in the healthcare sector [3] Vertex Pharmaceuticals - Vertex Pharmaceuticals holds a near monopoly in the cystic fibrosis drug market, generating significant revenue and strong free cash flow [4] - The company’s patents for key cystic fibrosis drugs extend into the late 2030s, providing a stable revenue foundation [4] - Vertex is expanding its portfolio beyond cystic fibrosis into other serious diseases, including a gene-editing therapy for sickle cell disease and a non-opioid pain management solution [5][6] - Vertex reported a total revenue of $3.08 billion for Q3 2025, an 11% year-over-year increase, with a net income of $1.1 billion [10] DexCom - DexCom is the leading manufacturer of continuous glucose monitoring devices, serving a growing global population with diabetes [11] - The company has a significant market share in the U.S. CGM market but has vast untapped opportunities, as less than 1% of Type 1 diabetics currently use CGM technology [12] - DexCom's revenue grew by 22% in Q3, with U.S. revenue increasing by 21% year-over-year and international revenue rising by 22% [16]

Key Points Vertex Pharmaceuticals' monopoly grants it significant pricing power, making it an inflation-resistant company. Mastercard's business is well-adapted to navigate inflationary periods; it also has a terrific dividend program. 10 stocks we like better than Vertex Pharmaceuticals › Inflation can be a significant problem for investors in at least two ways. First, the rise in prices leads to increased costs and expenses for corporations, as well as decreased consumer spending, which harms bus ...

Core Insights - Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a leading biopharmaceutical company focused on developing therapies for serious diseases, particularly known for its work in cystic fibrosis with drugs like Trikafta and Kalydeco [1] - The company's market capitalization is approximately $111.3 billion [1] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, Vertex's stock has decreased by 6.8%, while the S&P 500 Index has increased by 13.7% [2] - Year-to-date, Vertex's stock has risen by 7.8%, but this still lags behind the S&P 500's 13.4% gain [2] Sector Comparison - Vertex has underperformed compared to the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund, which has risen by 7% over the past 52 weeks and 10.3% year-to-date [3] Clinical and Regulatory Challenges - The decline in Vertex's stock is attributed to setbacks in its pain-drug pipeline, including a failed Phase 2 trial for VX-993 and regulatory hesitance from the FDA regarding its pain drug Journavx [4] - These issues have impacted investor confidence in Vertex's ability to diversify beyond its cystic fibrosis portfolio [4] Earnings Expectations - Analysts project Vertex's earnings per share (EPS) to grow to $15.99 for the fiscal year ending December 2025 [5] - The company's earnings surprise history is mixed, with three out of the last four quarters exceeding consensus estimates [5] Analyst Ratings - Among 34 analysts covering Vertex, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," consisting of 19 "Strong Buy" ratings, one "Moderate Buy," 13 "Holds," and one "Strong Sell" [5] - This rating configuration has become slightly more bullish compared to two months ago, when there were 17 "Strong Buy" ratings [6]

Core Viewpoint - Vertex Pharmaceuticals has struggled throughout the year, but potential catalysts in its late-stage pipeline may present buying opportunities for investors as the stock remains significantly down over the past 12 months [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Position - Vertex Pharmaceuticals primarily generates revenue from its cystic fibrosis (CF) franchise, which remains a leader in the market and drives solid top-line growth [3] - Despite concerns about being a "one-trick pony," Vertex has made efforts to diversify its product lineup, although newer products have yet to significantly impact financial results [3] Group 2: Late-Stage Pipeline and Future Potential - Vertex has several promising late-stage clinical programs, including zimislecel for Type 1 diabetes, which could potentially restore insulin production in eligible patients, with regulatory applications planned for submission next year [4][5] - Another key program is inaxaplin for APOL-1 mediated kidney disease, targeting an addressable market of 250,000 patients, which exceeds the total market for its CF franchise [6] - Additionally, povetacicept, an investigational medicine for IgA nephropathy, is also in phase 3 studies, with a potential market of over a million patients, indicating significant clinical progress could serve as a catalyst for the company [7]

Core Insights - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, exceeding estimates for both earnings and sales [1][2] Financial Performance - Total revenues reached $3.08 billion, marking an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by higher sales of the cystic fibrosis therapy Trikafta/Kaftrio and contributions from new drugs Alyftrek, Journavx, and Casgevy [2] - Sales in the United States rose by 15%, while international sales increased by 4% [2] - Trikafta sales grew by 2.6% during the quarter [2] - Vertex adjusted its full-year 2025 revenue guidance from a range of $11.85-$12 billion to $11.9-$12.0 billion [2] Drug Performance - The CF franchise significantly contributed to revenues, but investor focus is shifting towards the performance of newer drugs Alyftrek, Journavx, and Casgevy, which are crucial for long-term growth [3] - Alyftrek generated $247 million in sales in Q3, up from $156.8 million in Q2, indicating strong global launch momentum [7][9] - Journavx achieved sales of $19.6 million, meeting expectations as prescription and payer coverage expand [9][12] - Casgevy's sales fell 44% sequentially to $16.9 million, although patient access and reimbursement are improving [9][14] Market Outlook - Vertex anticipates higher sales from Journavx in Q4 due to rising prescription volumes [13] - The company expects over $100 million in Casgevy revenues for the year, with significant growth projected for 2026 [15] - Despite promising access progress and launch metrics for Journavx and Casgevy, revenue misses raise concerns about their contributions to overall revenue [16]

Core Insights - Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) reported adjusted earnings of $4.80 per share for Q3 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.55, with a year-over-year earnings increase of approximately 10% [1][10] - Total revenues reached $3.08 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.04 billion, marking an 11% year-over-year growth driven by Trikafta/Kaftrio sales and contributions from new drugs [1][10] Revenue Breakdown - U.S. revenues rose 15% year over year to $1.98 billion, fueled by strong demand and favorable net pricing, alongside contributions from new products [2] - International sales increased 4% to $1.10 billion, supported by strong cystic fibrosis (CF) growth and contributions from Casgevy [2] - Trikafta generated $2.65 billion in sales, a 2.6% increase year over year, outperforming estimates [2][10] - Alyftrek sales reached $247 million in Q3, up from $156.8 million in Q2, with strong U.S. launch progress and early success in European markets [3] - Revenues from other products declined 6% year over year to $175.8 million, including contributions from Casgevy and Journavx [4] Product Performance - Casgevy sales were $16.9 million, down 44.4% sequentially, with expectations of over $100 million in revenues for the year and significant growth anticipated in 2026 [5] - Journavx generated $19.6 million in sales, up from $12 million in Q2, following its U.S. approval in January [6] Cost and Expense Analysis - Adjusted R&D expenses increased 12.6% year over year to $861.1 million to support pipeline development [7] - Adjusted SG&A expenses rose 23% to $369 million, reflecting costs associated with the launch of Journavx [7] - Adjusted operating income rose 6% to $1.38 billion [8] Guidance and Future Outlook - Vertex tightened its total revenue guidance for 2025 to a range of $11.9 billion to $12.0 billion, indicating growth of 8-9% driven by CF franchise growth and contributions from new products [10][11] - Combined adjusted R&D, AIPR&D, and SG&A expense guidance for 2025 was raised to $5.0 billion to $5.1 billion [12] - The adjusted tax rate was reduced to a range of 17% to 18% [12] Market Reaction and Competitive Landscape - Despite strong Q3 results, Vertex shares declined 4% in after-hours trading, likely due to the disappointing sales performance of Casgevy [13] - Year-to-date, Vertex shares have risen 5.8%, compared to the industry's 12.1% increase [13] - Vertex's CF sales continue to grow, but there are concerns regarding the slower uptake of Casgevy and dependence on the CF franchise for revenue [14][17]

Core Insights - Vertex Pharmaceuticals reported mixed third-quarter results, with total sales of $3.08 billion, surpassing expectations of $3.06 billion, and adjusted earnings of $4.80 per share, exceeding the forecast of $4.58 per share [5][8] - The sales performance was primarily driven by the older cystic fibrosis treatment, Trikafta, and the newer triplet therapy, Alyftrek, which together generated $2.9 billion in sales, slightly above the projected $2.86 billion [2][8] - However, there were notable shortfalls in other product revenues, particularly for the pain drug Journavx and the gene-editing treatment Casgevy, which raised concerns about the overall growth trajectory of Vertex's product portfolio [5][7] Financial Performance - Vertex's adjusted earnings rose by 10% year-over-year, while sales increased by 11% [5] - Revenue from Journavx was $20 million, below the expected $23 million, despite 300,000 prescriptions being filled since its launch [5][6] - Casgevy's revenue was significantly lower than anticipated at $17 million, compared to the expected $43 million, indicating a potential slowdown in uptake [7][8] Market Position and Outlook - Vertex's stock price experienced a slight decline, closing at $422.60, and is currently positioned between its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which may hinder breakout potential [4] - The company raised its sales outlook for the year to a range of $11.9 billion to $12 billion, although this is below analyst projections of $12 billion [8] - The increase in insurance coverage for Journavx to 170 million people from 150 million in the previous quarter is a positive sign, but the overall sales performance remains a concern [6]

Core Viewpoint - Vertex Pharmaceuticals is positioned for significant growth over the coming years, driven by its strong product lineup and promising pipeline despite facing some risks [3][12]. Growth Drivers - Vertex's primary growth driver is its cystic fibrosis (CF) franchise, particularly the drug Kaftrio/Trikafta, which accounted for 86% of total revenue in Q2 2025. The recent FDA approval of Alyftrek is expected to cannibalize some sales from Kaftrio/Trikafta but will enhance profits due to lower royalty burdens [3][4]. - The company is expanding its product lineup beyond CF with Casgevy, the first approved CRISPR gene editing therapy, and Journavx, a non-opioid pain relief drug, which is anticipated to be a blockbuster [4]. - Vertex's pipeline includes promising candidates like zimislecel for Type 1 diabetes and povetacicept for IgA nephropathy, targeting large patient populations [5][6]. Market Position and Financials - Vertex has a market capitalization of $109 billion, with a current stock price of $425.57 and a gross margin of 86.08% [8]. - The company enjoys a monopoly in CF treatment, ensuring continued demand for its products regardless of economic conditions [9]. Patent Protection - Vertex's key CF therapy, Kaftrio/Trikafta, has patent protection until 2037, with Alyftrek and Journavx protected until 2039 and 2040, respectively, mitigating risks associated with patent expirations [10]. Risks - The main risk for Vertex is the potential failure of its pipeline candidates in clinical testing or regulatory approvals, although the company has a strong track record and multiple promising candidates [11].

Core Viewpoint - Vertex Pharmaceuticals is positioned to outperform Pfizer in the medium term, with a potential market cap surpassing Pfizer's by 2030 due to strong revenue growth and a robust pipeline of new products [1][7]. Pfizer's Issues - Pfizer has faced declining financial results as pandemic-related products lose their growth momentum, leading to slow sales growth for the next few years [2]. - The company is approaching critical patent cliffs by 2030, particularly for key products like Eliquis, Xtandi, and Prevnar 13, which will further impact its financial performance [2][7]. Vertex's Prospects - Vertex Pharmaceuticals is expected to maintain strong revenue growth, primarily due to its leadership in the cystic fibrosis market and the absence of patent cliffs for its major products until the late 2030s [4][5]. - The company has promising new product launches, including Journavx for acute pain and Casgevy for rare blood disorders, which are anticipated to drive growth over the next five years [5][6]. - Vertex is also developing zimislecel for type 1 diabetes, showing potential in clinical trials to restore insulin production, which could significantly impact its stock price [6][7]. - The late-stage pipeline includes inaxaplin for APOL-1 mediated kidney disease, addressing a condition with no current treatment options, further enhancing Vertex's growth prospects [7].