Global Healthcare Biopharma catalysts to watch in 3Q25 With macroeconomic volatility and healthcare policy uncertainty persisting likely into the back half of the year, we continue to advocate for and highlight idiosyncratic catalysts with attractive risk/reward setups to drive alpha generation. Herein, we highlight and preview key catalysts in 3Q25 across the GS biotechnology coverage universe from pivotal studies: BMY's Cobenfy ADEPT-2 in Alzheimer's disease psychosis; LLY's orforglipron ATTAIN-1 in obesi ...

Key Takeaways BMY stock lags with a 16.3% YTD drop, trailing the industry, sector, and S&P 500 in 2025. Generic hits to top drugs and pipeline setbacks have weighed on investor sentiment despite strong Q1. Newer drugs like Reblozyl, Breyanzi, and Opdualag help stabilize revenues and diversify BMY's portfolio.The first half of 2025 has been topsy-turvy for Bristol Myers (BMY) . Shares of this biotech giant have lost 16.3% year to date compared with the industry’s decline of 2.7%. The stock has also underpe ...

Key Takeaways BMY faces generic pressure on key drugs like Revlimid and Pomalyst, plus Medicare Part D headwinds. New drugs like Reblozyl, Opdualag and Breyanzi are driving growth amid strong uptake and new approvals. BMY trades at 7.34x forward earnings, below its average and the broader large-cap pharma industry.Bristol Myers (BMY) depends on newer drugs like Opdualag, Reblozyl and Breyanzi to stabilize its revenue base as its legacy drugs face generic competition.Legacy Portfolio is adversely impacted ...

Core Viewpoint - Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) presents a compelling investment opportunity despite its 23% decline in 2025, driven by market turbulence, offering deep value and substantial income potential [2][4]. Group 1: Valuation Metrics - Bristol Myers Squibb trades at 7.2 times forward earnings, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 18 times, indicating a nearly 60% discount [5]. - The company offers a 5.12% dividend yield, nearly four times the S&P 500's yield of 1.35%, making it the second highest among major drug manufacturers [6]. Group 2: Market Challenges - Analysts predict a nearly 7% decline in Bristol Myers Squibb's 2026 revenue due to pricing pressures, geopolitical issues, and slowing growth in key franchises [7]. - Significant patent expirations for key drugs like Eliquis and Opdivo starting in 2028 could further impact revenue [8]. - Recent clinical trial failures in key pipeline assets have contributed to investor skepticism [9]. Group 3: Growth Potential - The company's acquisition strategy has diversified its pipeline, with recent acquisitions in oncology and neurology enhancing growth prospects [11]. - Bristol Myers Squibb is actively reducing debt, improving financial flexibility for future acquisitions [12]. - Promising pipeline candidates in cardiology and hematology may mitigate expected revenue declines from patent expirations [13]. Group 4: Investment Opportunity - The stock's current valuation and dividend yield present a contrarian investment opportunity, despite the company's challenges [14]. - For investors willing to accept short-term uncertainty, the current entry point offers a favorable risk-reward proposition [15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "In-Line" investment rating for the biopharma industry in North America [7] Core Insights - The latest weekly Total Prescription (TRx) year-over-year (YoY) growth for the week ending April 11, 2025, was +2.7%, a decrease from +3.5% the previous week, but consistent with the +2.7% growth over the past 12 weeks [1][2] - The report highlights the launch performance of new drugs, including BMY's Cobenfy for schizophrenia and VRTX's Journavx for acute pain, with specific TRx targets needed to meet consensus sales estimates [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The US total market weekly TRx YoY change was +2.7% compared to +2.3% a year ago, with a rolling 4-week TRx YoY also at +2.7% [2] - Extended unit (EUTRx) weekly YoY growth was +1.4%, indicating a slower growth rate compared to TRx YoY [2] Drug Launch Analysis - BMY's Cobenfy, approved for schizophrenia, recorded approximately 1,660 scripts for the week, up from 1,580 the previous week, with a target of 105K TRx needed to meet 2025 consensus estimates [3] - VRTX's Journavx, approved for acute pain, had around 2,950 scripts for the week, with an estimated average script size of 35-37 pills, indicating a need for approximately 229K scripts for a 14-day duration to achieve $87 million in sales [4] Prescription Trends - The report includes a detailed analysis of prescription trends for major pharmaceuticals, highlighting significant YoY changes for key products such as Humira, Rinvoq, and Skyrizi [19][21] - The GLP-1 franchise, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound, showed notable growth, with Mounjaro experiencing a 69% YoY increase [21] Seasonal Vaccine Tracking - The report tracks seasonal respiratory vaccines, noting that RSV vaccine volumes are approximately 65% below last year's levels, while COVID vaccine volumes are also down year-over-year [10]