Key Takeaways TTD's Q2 revenues rose 19% to $694M, with CTV remaining its fastest-growing advertising channel.Over 70% of clients now use Kokai, with campaigns showing 20-point KPI gains over legacy tools.Competition is intensifying as MGNI and PubMatic boost their CTV efforts.The Trade Desk’s (TTD) Connected TV or CTV business continues to gain momentum. Total revenues for the second quarter of 2025 grew 19% year over year to $694 million, outpacing the broader digital ad market. CTV once again emerged as ...

Key Takeaways The Trade Desk projects at least $717M in Q3 revenue, up 14% year over year.Growth is slowing from Q1's 25% and Q2's 18.6%, signaling a maturing trajectory.Rising operating costs, up 17.8%, are pressuring margins amid competition and uncertainty.The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) reported second-quarter 2025 revenues of $694 million, reflecting an 18.6% year-over-year increase. The figure exceeded the company’s guidance of at least $682 million and topped the consensus estimate by 1.4%. Connected TV ( ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is set to report its Q2 2025 results on August 7, with expectations of a 17% year-over-year revenue increase to approximately $684.46 million, alongside an earnings estimate of 42 cents per share, up from 39 cents in the prior year quarter [1][2]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TTD's Q2 earnings is 42 cents, unchanged over the past 60 days, with total revenues expected to reach $684.46 million, reflecting a 17.1% increase year-over-year [1][12]. - TTD's revenues are projected to be at least $682 million, indicating a 17% year-over-year growth, which includes the impact of political ad spending from the previous year [2]. Earnings Surprise History - TTD has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 11.14% [3]. Market Position and Strategy - TTD is focusing on increasing digital spending in areas like Connected TV (CTV), which represented a significant portion of its business, and is seen as a key driver for revenue growth [6][8]. - The company is capitalizing on the shift from linear to programmatic CTV, positioning it as a central element of its growth strategy [6][8]. - TTD's Kokai platform is gaining traction, with two-thirds of clients already using it, leading to improved performance metrics such as a 24% lower cost per conversion [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - The digital advertising industry remains highly competitive, with major players like Alphabet and Amazon posing challenges to TTD's market positioning [11][16]. - TTD's stock has underperformed compared to its peers, with a 25.2% decline over the past six months, contrasting with the performance of the broader Internet Services industry and the S&P 500 [12][16]. Valuation Metrics - TTD's stock is trading at a premium, with a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 13.52X, significantly higher than the industry average of 5.3X [19].

Core Insights - The Trade Desk, Inc (TTD) and Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) are key players in the programmatic advertising ecosystem, with TTD focusing on demand-side platform services and Alphabet dominating the digital ad space through its extensive ecosystem [1][2] The Case for TTD - TTD is optimistic about its market performance, driven by initiatives in connected TV (CTV), retail media, international expansion, and the Kokai platform, which has seen two-thirds client adoption ahead of schedule [3][4] - The Kokai platform has demonstrated significant efficiency improvements, including a 24% reduction in cost per conversion and a 20% reduction in cost per acquisition [3] - TTD's first-quarter revenues increased by 25% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA at $208 million, representing a 34% margin [5] - The company anticipates revenues of at least $682 million for Q2 2025, indicating a 17% year-over-year growth [5] - TTD's reliance on CTV for growth poses risks due to market fragmentation and competition, with 88% of revenues coming from North America [6][7] The Case for GOOGL - Alphabet's ad revenue grew by 8.5% year-over-year in Q1 2025, supported by increases in Google Search and YouTube ads [8][11] - In 2024, Google advertising revenues reached $264.59 billion, with a significant contribution from Search and YouTube [11] - Alphabet's integration of AI into its advertising platforms is enhancing growth, with features like AI Mode in Search and the Offerwall tool in Ad Manager [10][12] - The company generated $36.15 billion in cash from operations in Q1 2025, with cash equivalents and marketable securities totaling $95.328 billion [13] Share Performance and Valuation - Over the past month, TTD and GOOGL shares increased by 13.7% and 14.8%, respectively [16] - TTD is considered overvalued with a forward price/earnings ratio of 41.06X, while GOOGL's ratio stands at 19.35X [17][18] - Both companies currently hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [22] Conclusion - While both companies benefit from the growth in CTV and retail media, Alphabet's broader ad ecosystem, stronger financials, and diversified revenue streams position it as a more resilient long-term investment [23]

Group 1: S&P 500 Performance - The S&P 500 index increased by 20.5% during the two-month period ending June 9, 2025, marking only the sixth occurrence of such a return since 1950 [1] - If the index follows historical trends, it could rise by 31% to 7,868 by next June, indicating a 26% upside from its current level of 6,230 [2] Group 2: The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk operates as a leading independent demand-side platform (DSP) in the adtech industry, utilizing AI to optimize advertising campaigns across digital channels [5] - The company reported a 25% increase in revenue to $616 million and a 27% rise in non-GAAP net income to $0.33 per diluted share in the first quarter [6] - Adtech spending is projected to grow at 14% annually through 2030, with The Trade Desk recognized as a leader in adtech innovation [7] - The median target price for The Trade Desk among 41 analysts is $84 per share, suggesting a 15% upside from its current price of $73 [8] - The Trade Desk's independent business model allows it to avoid conflicts of interest, unlike competitors such as Google and Meta [9] - The company is expected to upgrade all clients to its Kokai platform by year-end, which includes new AI tools for optimizing campaigns [10] - Wall Street anticipates an 11% annual earnings increase through 2026, although the current valuation of 42 times earnings may appear high [11] Group 3: Okta - Okta is a leader in identity and access management (IAM) software, which is crucial for securing access to sensitive applications [12] - The company reported a 12% revenue increase to $688 million and a 32% rise in non-GAAP net income to $0.86 per diluted share in the first quarter [14] - IAM is increasingly important as identity-based attacks account for 30% of all cybersecurity incidents, with spending expected to grow at 12.6% annually through 2030 [15] - Wall Street estimates Okta's adjusted earnings will increase at 10% annually through fiscal 2027, with a current valuation of 32 times earnings [16]

Core Insights - President Donald Trump's announcement of a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal and a solid June jobs report positively impacted stock markets, presenting investment opportunities for investors seeking stocks with strong fundamentals and growth potential [1] Dell Technologies - Dell Technologies (DELL) is highlighted as a stock pick, with Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani maintaining a buy rating and a price target of $150, while TipRanks' AI analyst has an "outperform" rating with a price target of $128 [3][4] - Daryanani expressed optimism about Dell's potential for high-single-digit revenue growth and double-digit increases in earnings per share (EPS) and free cash flow (FCF), supported by cost optimization initiatives and AI investments [4][6] - The analyst noted that Dell's AI server margins are exceeding expectations, allowing the company to earn a premium compared to competitors, and emphasized innovations in infrastructure offerings, particularly in liquid cooling capabilities [5][6] Trade Desk - Trade Desk (TTD) is another stock recommendation, with Evercore analyst Mark Mahaney upgrading the stock to Buy from Hold, setting a price forecast of $90, while TipRanks' AI analyst has an "outperform" rating with a lower target of $83 [7][8] - Mahaney views the recent pullback in TTD stock as a buying opportunity, citing improved online ad demand sentiment and execution since April/May, despite uncertainties for the second half of the year [8][11] - The analyst highlighted that Trade Desk's product announcements have alleviated concerns regarding the transition to the AI-powered Kokai platform, and he anticipates achievable growth setups for fiscal 2025 [10][12] Amazon - Amazon (AMZN) is the third stock pick, with Jefferies analyst Brent Thill reaffirming a buy rating and raising the price target to $255 from $250, while TipRanks' AI analyst has an "outperform" rating with a target of $233 [14][15] - Thill's price target increase follows a survey indicating that Amazon remains resilient despite tariff-related price increases, with 62% of respondents spending the same or more in the past three months [15][16] - The survey revealed that Amazon Prime is a significant loyalty driver, with 73% of respondents holding a Prime membership, and Thill expects the upcoming Prime Day event to be more impactful due to its extended duration [16][17]

Core Insights - Amazon is expanding its advertising business, which has become its fastest-growing segment, potentially competing directly with The Trade Desk in programmatic advertising [2][11] - A recent partnership between Amazon and Roku aims to enhance advertising reach, providing access to 80 million connected TV households in the U.S., which could attract advertisers away from The Trade Desk [9][10] - Despite Amazon's growth in advertising sales by 18% year over year, The Trade Desk's revenue grew at a faster rate of 25%, indicating a competitive landscape rather than a zero-sum game [13] Company Developments - Amazon has been actively poaching customers from The Trade Desk, with reports indicating that marketers are shifting millions in ad spending to Amazon due to competitive pricing and exclusive content [7][12] - The Trade Desk is recognized as a leading independent provider of programmatic advertising services, with a strong demand-side platform that offers extensive data and analytics [5][6] - The Trade Desk has launched its Kokai platform, integrating AI into the ad buying process, which enhances transparency and user outcomes [14] Industry Context - The digital advertising market is experiencing significant growth, with total ad spending expected to surpass $1 trillion by 2025, and digital advertising accounting for approximately $764 billion in 2023 [11] - Analysts have mixed opinions on the competitive dynamics, with some suggesting Amazon is encroaching on The Trade Desk's market share, while others affirm The Trade Desk's position as a market leader [12] - The Trade Desk's stock is currently trading at a discount compared to its three-year average, presenting a potential investment opportunity [15]

Core Insights - The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) has expanded its partnership with Instacart, integrating grocery selection data into TTD's platform, which enhances programmatic advertising capabilities for marketers [1][10] - Advertisers can now access Instacart's grocery catalog for custom audience segmentation and real-time campaign adjustments, improving agility and effectiveness [2][3] - The integration allows for closed-loop measurement, enabling advertisers to track sales impact and Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) in real-time [4][10] Group 1: Partnership and Integration - The partnership positions Instacart as a full-funnel advertising solution, with over 7,000 active CPG brand partners and 1,800 retail partners in North America [6] - Advertisers can engage consumers across various platforms, including mobile and streaming TV, ensuring a comprehensive omnichannel approach [8] Group 2: Technological Advancements - TTD's Kokai platform features tools like frequency capping and brand safety controls, enhancing the advertising experience [3] - The recent launch of Deal Desk within the Kokai platform aims to improve deal management and transparency in programmatic advertising [9] Group 3: Market Impact - Major brands like Danone have successfully utilized the integrated setup for real-time campaign optimization, demonstrating the effectiveness of the partnership [5] - The integration spans over 220 e-commerce grocery partner sites, solidifying Instacart's role as a central hub for omnichannel campaign execution [7][10]

Core Insights - Instacart has expanded its partnership with The Trade Desk to enhance programmatic campaign performance using retail media data, allowing advertisers to create custom audiences based on specific product criteria [1][4][6] - The integration enables real-time sales measurement signals from Instacart to be accessed directly within The Trade Desk platform, facilitating closed-loop measurement for advertisers [5][6] Group 1: Partnership and Integration - The partnership allows approved advertisers to build first-party custom audiences and optimize campaigns mid-flight without the need for insertion orders [4][6] - Instacart is the first U.S. retail media network to integrate its grocery selection with The Trade Desk platform, streamlining self-service use cases for advertisers [1][4] Group 2: Advertising and Measurement - Advertisers can now measure the impact of Instacart audience segments on business outcomes, including attributed sales and return on ad spend (ROAS) [5][6] - The closed-loop reporting feature provides clear insights into sales impact, enabling media teams to optimize campaigns in real-time [5][7] Group 3: Market Position and Ecosystem - Instacart collaborates with over 7,000 active brands and 1,800 retail partners, simplifying the advertising process across fragmented retail networks [9] - The expanded functionality is part of Instacart's growing advertising ecosystem, which includes partnerships with major platforms like Google, Meta, and NBCUniversal [8][9]

Company Overview - The Trade Desk has shown remarkable growth, returning over 2,300% since its IPO in 2016, despite a recent decline of over 40% from its all-time high [2][16] - The company operates in a competitive digital advertising market, providing a technology platform that allows advertisers to purchase ad space, target audiences, and track campaign results [6][7] Industry Dynamics - The digital advertising landscape is evolving, with advertising dollars shifting from traditional media to online platforms, driven by data utilization for targeted advertising [4][5] - Major players like Google and Facebook dominate the market, creating "walled gardens" that limit advertisers' control and data access [5] Growth Potential - The Trade Desk has generated $2.57 billion in revenue over the past four quarters, with a free cash flow conversion of $0.26 for every dollar [8] - Gross ad spending on The Trade Desk's platform is projected to reach approximately $12 billion in 2024, representing a small portion of a $135 billion digital media opportunity [8] - The company has experienced a 24% to 25% annual growth in gross ad spending from 2022 to 2024, indicating sustained growth momentum [9] Technological Advancements - The Trade Desk is transitioning to its new Kokai platform, which leverages artificial intelligence to optimize ad spending and improve campaign results, potentially leading to higher profit margins [11] Shareholder Management - The company has effectively managed stock-based compensation, limiting share dilution to just 3.4% over the past five years, which is crucial for maintaining shareholder value [12] Investment Opportunity - The recent stock sell-off presents a rare opportunity for investors, as the stock is currently valued at a level not seen in the past six years, despite its strong long-term track record [13][14] - The Trade Desk's leadership has outlined multiple strategies to capitalize on industry growth trends, reinforcing confidence in the company's future [14] - The current lower valuation suggests that revenue and earnings growth will likely be reflected in the stock's returns, positioning The Trade Desk as a potential long-term winner [16]