The Trade Desk Faces Its Most Important Revenue Test After a 67% Collapse - 24/7 Wall St.[S&P 5006,927.00 +0.52%][Dow Jones49,256.00 +0.18%][Nasdaq 10025,269.80 +1.16%][Russell 20002,645.71 -0.22%][FTSE 10010,764.60 +0.47%][Nikkei 22559,490.30 +2.69%][Stock Market Live February 25, 2026: S&P 500 (SPY) Up on Trump and Tech][Investing]# The Trade Desk Faces Its Most Important Revenue Test After a 67% Collapse### Quick ReadTrade Desk (TTD) stock fell 67% over the past year despite 18% revenue growth and custom ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) shares have reached a new 52-week low as investors react to President Trump's proposed tariffs on goods from several European countries, raising concerns about the impact on the company's advertising revenue [1][4]. Company Performance - The Trade Desk reported quarterly results in November with revenue of approximately $739 million, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase, and earnings per share (EPS) of 45 cents, surpassing consensus expectations. The company guided for fourth-quarter revenue exceeding $840 million [5]. - Despite the positive earnings report, BofA Securities analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich maintained an Underperform rating and reduced the price target from $49 to $40, citing concerns over macroeconomic headwinds from tariffs [6]. Market Conditions - The proposed 10% tariffs on goods from key European countries could negatively affect the margins of consumer and luxury brands that heavily invest in digital advertising, which is crucial for The Trade Desk's business model [3]. - The stock is currently trading 8.5% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 10.2% below its 100-day SMA, indicating bearish momentum. Over the past 12 months, shares have decreased by 72.56% [7]. Analyst Insights - The average price target for The Trade Desk is $65.32, with a consensus rating of Buy, despite a projected 15% decline in earnings [10]. - The stock is trading at a premium P/E multiple of 40.3x, indicating a steep valuation compared to peers, while the growth potential remains strong with a score of 90.67/100 [12]. ETF Exposure - The Trade Desk has significant weight in the SmartETFs Advertising and Marketing Technology ETF (NYSE:MRAD), which could lead to automatic buying or selling of the stock based on ETF inflows or outflows [13].

Group 1 - The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTD) is recognized as a promising growth stock, with a 'Buy' rating reaffirmed by Stifel, marking it as a top pick in the Ad Tech sector despite a 50% decline in stock price over the last six months [1] - The company is overcoming rollout issues with its Kokai platform and is expected to perform well beyond the challenges posed by the U.S. presidential election cycle in 2025, with revenue growth aligning with 2024 levels when excluding political spending [2] - Stifel anticipates that The Trade Desk's revenue growth figures will improve significantly starting in the second quarter of 2024, supported by AI developments and a favorable macro environment [3] Group 2 - The Trade Desk, Inc. is a California-based technology company that provides a self-service, cloud-based ad-buying platform and other value-added services, aiming to enhance advertising relevance for consumers [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback in prices for certain AI stocks presents a potential buying opportunity, particularly for The Trade Desk and DataDog, which are down 73% and 30% from their recent highs respectively [1][2]. The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk's stock has significantly declined in 2025 due to internal and external challenges, including disappointing fourth-quarter revenue and earnings that fell short of expectations [4]. - Revenue growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is up 20%, but this is slower compared to 27% growth in the same period the previous year, with third-quarter revenue growth particularly concerning at just 18% [5]. - Competition from Amazon in the demand-side platform space poses a threat, as Amazon is reportedly undercutting prices and securing deals with major streaming platforms [5][7]. - The stock is down 73% from its late 2024 high, resulting in a forward P/E ratio under 21 and an enterprise value-to-sales ratio under 6, indicating potential value as the market continues to grow [8]. - Despite market share concerns, The Trade Desk is expected to achieve mid-teens revenue growth and improve operating margins as it scales [8]. DataDog - DataDog's stock experienced a significant drop of 30% following strong third-quarter earnings, attributed to insider selling and increased competitive pressure from Palo Alto Networks' acquisition of Chronosphere [9][10]. - The third-quarter earnings report showed a 28% increase in revenue and a 53% rise in remaining performance obligations, suggesting strong growth potential for 2026 [10]. - DataDog is gaining traction in the AI sector, with over 500 native AI customers and a recent nine-figure deal with a leading AI company, indicating robust demand for its services [12]. - The total addressable market for observability platforms like DataDog is expanding rapidly due to increased cloud computing usage, although the stock remains expensive with a forward P/E of 69 and a price-to-sales ratio of 14 [13].

Core Insights - The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is strategically positioned for growth through 2026, driven by innovations in its Kokai platform and strong digital advertising demand, reporting Q3 revenues of $739 million, an 18% year-over-year increase [1][9] Group 1: Innovations and Product Developments - TTD introduced three major innovations in Q4, including a platform upgrade and two new products aimed at enhancing long-term growth [2] - The revamped data marketplace is designed to be more competitive and AI-driven, offering richer data and better rewards for contributors [2] - The launch of Audience Unlimited allows users to access and layer third-party data more freely, enhancing campaign performance [3] - Trading Modes, which provide flexibility in ad buying, will enable users to choose their level of control, supported by agentic AI for performance optimization [3][4] Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - TTD is well-positioned to capture market share in 2026, supported by the expansion of Kokai adoption, growth in CTV and retail media, and strong client retention [5] - Competitors like Magnite and Taboola are also innovating; Magnite reported an 18% growth in CTV, while Taboola's new platform, Realize, leverages AI to enhance performance advertising [6][7] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - TTD's shares have declined 72.3% over the past year, contrasting with the S&P 500's rise of 15.4% [10] - The forward price/earnings ratio for TTD is 31.16X, higher than the Internet Services industry's 29.43X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TTD's earnings for 2025 has increased over the past 60 days, indicating positive sentiment [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTD) is identified as a stock with significant upside potential despite a recent decline in share price following its fiscal Q3 2025 results, which exceeded expectations [1][3]. Financial Performance - In fiscal Q3 2025, The Trade Desk reported a revenue growth of 17.74% year-over-year, reaching $739.43 million, which surpassed estimates by $20.09 million [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.45, exceeding estimates by $0.01 [3]. - Despite the earnings beat, the stock has fallen over 14% since the results announcement, attributed to concerns over slowing growth [1][3]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Tom White from D.A. Davidson reiterated a Buy rating on The Trade Desk but reduced the price target from $80 to $54 [2]. - Truist Securities also maintained a Buy rating while lowering the price target from $100 to $85 [2]. - Analysts at Truist noted that the company's fundamentals remain strong, driven by the adoption of the Kokai platform, despite underperformance compared to peers [4]. Company Overview - The Trade Desk is a global advertising technology company that provides a self-service, cloud-based platform for ad buyers to manage and optimize digital advertising campaigns [5].

Core Insights - The Trade Desk, Duolingo, and Chipotle Mexican Grill are currently trading at significant discounts, with declines ranging from 40% to 70% this year, presenting potential investment opportunities [2][3][8] The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk has experienced a 70% decline in stock value in 2025, despite being a strong performer in previous years [5] - Revenue for The Trade Desk has increased by 20% in the first nine months of the year, with an 18% rise in the latest quarter, indicating continued growth [6] - The company maintains a high customer retention rate of over 95% and is gaining market share, despite some integration challenges with its AI platform [7] - The Trade Desk's forward P/E ratio is now in the high teens, making it an attractive buy [8] - The company anticipates at least a 13% revenue increase in the fourth quarter, with analysts optimistic about growth reaccelerating by spring next year [10]

Core Insights - AppLovin (APP) and The Trade Desk (TTD) both reported Q3 2025 earnings that exceeded estimates, but their market reactions diverged significantly, with APP's stock surging 71% over the past year while TTD's stock fell 68% from its highs [1] AppLovin (APP) - AppLovin's revenue increased by 68% year-over-year to $1.41 billion, surpassing the estimate of $1.34 billion [2][4] - The company reported a net income of $836 million, reflecting a 92% increase from the previous year, and achieved an operating margin of 76.8% [2][4] - Operating cash flow reached $1.05 billion, up 91% year-over-year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [4][7] - AppLovin's business model leverages its AXON 2.0 AI engine, providing end-to-end AI solutions for mobile app developers, which contributes to its high operating margin [5] The Trade Desk (TTD) - The Trade Desk's revenue grew by 18% to $739 million, slightly exceeding the estimate of $719 million [3][4] - Operating income rose by 49% to $161 million, but net income growth of 23% lagged behind revenue growth, indicating potential margin pressures [3][4] - Operating cash flow declined by 18% year-over-year to $225 million, and the company's cash position decreased by 47% to $653 million [3][4][7] - TTD's strategy focuses on a self-service programmatic advertising platform for the open internet, which results in a different cost structure reflected in its 21.8% operating margin [6]

Core Insights - The Trade Desk, Inc. reported strong third-quarter earnings, surpassing both revenue and earnings estimates [1][2]. Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings were 45 cents per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of 44 cents [2]. - Quarterly revenue reached $739.43 million, beating the Street estimate of $718.69 million, reflecting an 18% year-over-year growth [2][3]. Management Commentary - CEO Jeff Green highlighted the strong performance driven by new product innovations on the Kokai platform, which enhance data-driven advertising capabilities for leading brands [3][4]. - The company is positioned to leverage AI advancements in the advertising ecosystem, enabling clients to achieve data-rich buying across various channels [4]. Future Outlook - The Trade Desk anticipates fourth-quarter revenue to exceed $840 million, compared to the analyst estimate of $830.15 million [5].

Core Insights - The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is experiencing accelerating global momentum, with international revenue growth surpassing U.S. performance, indicating successful expansion beyond its core market [1] - International operations accounted for approximately 14% of total spend in Q2 2025, driven by strong adoption of connected TV (CTV) and retail media platforms [1] - The company anticipates that operations outside North America will continue to be a significant growth driver [1] Group 1: International Growth and CTV Performance - TTD's international growth has outpaced North America for nine consecutive quarters, with EMEA and APAC regions contributing to this expansion [1] - CTV remains a key growth driver, with programmatic CTV being highlighted as the "most effective and highest return on ad spend" channel [2] - Video, including CTV, represented a high 40% share of total business, continuing to grow its contribution [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements and Revenue Projections - The Kokai platform, powered by Koa AI, is delivering over 20-point KPI improvements for clients, with spending on Kokai growing 20% faster than among non-users [3] - OpenPath is enhancing transparency in the digital advertising supply chain, boosting advertiser confidence and efficiency [3] - TTD expects third-quarter revenues to reach at least $717 million, reflecting a 14% year-over-year growth [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - The global digital ad spending market is projected to reach $1,483 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 9.47% from 2025 to 2034, positioning TTD favorably for future growth [4] - However, macroeconomic uncertainties, including rising inflation and supply-chain disruptions, may impact advertising budgets [5] - Intense competition from major players like Google and Amazon, as well as smaller firms like Magnite and PubMatic, poses challenges to TTD's market positioning [6] Group 4: Competitor Analysis - Magnite is enhancing its CTV business through partnerships with major streaming platforms, reporting a 14% year-over-year increase in CTV contributions [7] - PubMatic's growth is driven by CTV and emerging revenue streams, with CTV accounting for nearly 20% of total revenues [8]