"今年11月，伴随国内外旺季备货期结束，面板需求进一步回落，而供应仍相对宽松，推动面板价格持续下行。进入12月，北美市场需求逐渐释放，带动 短期需求回暖，但由于整体产能平均稼动率仍维持较高水位，预计中小尺寸面板价格将逐步企稳，而大尺寸面板价格则延续下跌趋势。" | Size & Resolution | | | Technology | Nov.25' | Dec.25'(E) | Differ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 32" | 60Hz | HD | LCD | $32.0 | $32.0 | $0.0 | | 43" | 60Hz | FHD | LCD | $64.0 | $64.0 | $0.0 | | 50" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $86.0 | $86.0 | $0.0 | | ટે ટે" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $107.0 | $107.0 | $0.0 | | ୧୮." | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $162.0 | $161.0 | -$1.0 | | 75" | 60H ...

CINNO Research发文称，今年11月，伴随国内外旺季备货期结束，面板需求进一步回落，而供应仍相对宽松，推动面板价格持续下行。进入12月，北美市 场需求逐渐释放，带动短期需求回暖，但由于整体产能平均稼动率仍维持较高水位，预计中小尺寸面板价格将逐步企稳，而大尺寸面板价格则延续下跌趋 势。 12月以来，国内市场因季节性备货结束而需求放缓，海外市场则在2026年世界杯等体育赛事预期及头部品牌年底冲量采购的推动下，表现出一定需求韧性， 带动短期整体市场回暖。面板厂在10月主动调控产能后，近期迎来订单阶段性增加，预计将维持较高产能利用率生产。在供需环境整体仍较宽松的背景下， 部分LCD TV面板价格有望逐步止跌，但全面反弹动力不足。 从需求端来看，面板市场在经历国内外旺季备货期后，11月整体需求已显现疲软，除32"与43"小尺寸面板价格保持稳定外，其余尺寸价格均延续下跌态势。 进入12月，受部分品牌商为明年国际体育赛事启动提前采购带动，中小尺寸面板需求获得阶段性支撑，预计价格逐步趋于稳定。反观国内市场，由于"国 补"政策尚未明确延续，终端厂商对明年一季度传统淡季的预期仍偏保守，并未开展大规模备货，因此大尺寸面板 ...

" 今 年 11 月 ， 伴 随 国 内 外 旺 季 备 货 期 结 束 ， 面 板 需 求 进 一 步 回 落 ， 而 供 应 仍 相 对 宽 松 ， 推 动 面 板 价 格 持 续 下 行 。 进 入 12 月 ， 北 美 市 场 需 求 逐 渐 释 放 ， 带 动 短 期 需 求 回 暖 ， 但 由 于 整 体 产 能 平 均 稼 动 率 仍 维 持 较 高水位，预计中小尺寸面板价格将逐步企稳，而大尺寸面板价格则延续下跌趋势。 " | Size & Resolution | | | Technology | Nov.25' | Dec.25'(E) | Differ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 32" 60Hz | | HD | LCD | $32.0 | $32.0 | $0.0 | | 43" | 60Hz | FHD | LCD | $64.0 | $64.0 | $0.0 | | 50" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $86.0 | $86.0 | $0.0 | | 55" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $1 ...

Group 1 - The overall demand for panels is expected to decline in Q4, with manufacturers stabilizing mainstream size prices through coordinated production control [1] - The impact of domestic subsidy policies on the market is limited, and the easing of US-China tariff tensions may slow down the pre-stocking pace, leading to further weakening of short-term demand [1] - Panel prices are anticipated to enter a downward channel in November due to multiple factors, including the inability to maintain a unified production control rhythm among manufacturers [1] Group 2 - In October, as pre-stocking neared completion, order volumes gradually decreased, resulting in a 7.8% month-on-month decline in LCD TV panel shipments [2] - Major panel manufacturers responded quickly by controlling production capacity, maintaining an average utilization rate of around 75% for high-generation lines [2] - The average utilization rate is expected to remain around 80% in Q4, leading to ongoing supply-demand dynamics despite efforts to stabilize prices [2] Group 3 - In November, the overall demand for LCD TV panels is expected to weaken, with most panel sizes entering a general price decline [2] - Specific price forecasts for November indicate that 32" and 43" panel prices are expected to remain stable at $32 and $64 respectively, while mainstream sizes from 50" to 85" are projected to decline by $2 [2] - Ultra-large size panels (98"/100") are expected to see significant price drops, projected to decrease by $10 to around $440 [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for LCD TV panels is expected to weaken in November due to limited impact from domestic subsidy policies and a calming of the US-China tariff situation, leading to a downward trend in panel prices [1][2][3]. Demand Analysis - Overall demand for panels is declining in Q4, with manufacturers stabilizing mainstream size prices through coordinated production control. As of November, brand stocking has nearly concluded, shifting procurement from urgent to cautious [2][3]. - The domestic "trade-in" policy is also nearing its end, and while there may be some pre-stocking for the 2026 World Cup, the easing of US-China trade tensions has reduced the urgency for stocking [3]. - The comprehensive tariff on Chinese TV exports to the US has decreased to approximately 31.4%, further diminishing the need for urgent stocking [3]. Supply Analysis - As stocking winds down, order volumes are decreasing, prompting leading panel manufacturers to adjust production capacity, maintaining an average utilization rate of around 75% [4]. - The G8.5 and G10.5 production lines are primarily responsible for production control, with significant reductions in utilization rates, which has helped stabilize prices for sizes ranging from 32" to 75" [4]. - However, the G8.6 production line has seen weaker production control, leading to continued price declines for larger panels (85" and above) [4]. Price Forecast - In November, the overall demand for LCD TV panels is expected to weaken, with most panel sizes entering a general price decline. Specifically, prices for 32" and 43" panels are projected to remain stable at $32 and $64, respectively, while prices for sizes from 50" to 85" are expected to drop by $2 each [5]. - The largest panels (98"/100") are anticipated to see a more significant price drop of $10, bringing their price down to $440 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for LCD TV panels remains high due to brand manufacturers preparing for the year-end peak season, with panel prices stabilizing as supply and demand strategies align [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Demand - In Q3, brand manufacturers increased procurement to meet year-end demand, leading to a rise in panel prices, which approached stabilization by September [5][6]. - Despite a forecasted slowdown in demand as inventory adjustments occur, promotional events like "Double Eleven" and "Black Friday" are expected to support demand in October [6][8]. - The overall demand for panels in October is projected to remain stable, with most panel prices expected to hold steady compared to September [8]. Group 2: Supply Side Dynamics - Panel manufacturers increased production capacity utilization to 82% in Q3, a nearly 3% increase from the previous quarter, resulting in a 7.6% year-on-year growth in LCD TV panel shipments [8]. - To address the anticipated demand decline, many panel manufacturers are adjusting production capacity in early October, expecting utilization to drop below 80% [8]. - This production adjustment strategy aims to control inventory and operational costs while alleviating potential supply-demand imbalances in the TV market [8]. Group 3: Price Stability - Price stability is expected for most panel sizes in October, with specific prices remaining unchanged from September: 32" at $32, 43" at $64, 50" at $88, 55" at $110, 65" at $165, and 75" at $221 [4][8]. - However, larger panel sizes like 85" and 98" may experience slight price declines due to insufficient demand, projected to drop to $290 and $455 respectively [8].

Core Viewpoint - In September, brand manufacturers continued to stock up for the fourth quarter peak season, maintaining high demand for panels, leading to a stabilization in LCD TV panel prices as they approached a bottoming out phase [1][3]. Demand Side Summary - Brand manufacturers increased procurement significantly in the third quarter to prepare for the year-end peak season, resulting in sustained high demand for panels [3]. - The demand for LCD TV panels is expected to slow down as the stocking phase comes to an end, but promotional events like "Double Eleven" and "Black Friday" will provide some support for demand in October [1][3]. - The overall demand in October is projected to be stable, with most panel prices remaining flat compared to September, except for larger sizes which may face slight declines [4]. Supply Side Summary - In the third quarter, TV brands increased their orders, leading to an average production capacity utilization rate of high-generation lines rising to 82%, a nearly three percentage point increase [4]. - To respond to the anticipated demand adjustment, most panel manufacturers are expected to reduce their production capacity to below 80% in October [4]. - The price stability of LCD TV panels in October is supported by the manufacturers' production control strategies and the overall demand remaining stable [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic TV market in China experienced a 10% year-on-year decline in sales volume in Q2, primarily due to the suspension of national subsidy policies in several provinces and cities. However, demand is expected to recover moderately in August as subsidy funds are fully allocated and brands prepare for the peak season [3][4]. Group 1: Demand Side Analysis - In July, the end of the 618 shopping festival and a funding gap in the "trade-in" subsidy program led to weakened terminal demand. However, as August approaches, traditional stocking season is near, and brands have significantly reduced inventory, enhancing stocking momentum [4]. - The third batch of 690 billion yuan "trade-in" special bonds was fully allocated on August 1, with a fourth batch of the same amount expected to be released in October, which is likely to boost demand in the second half of the year [4]. - The extension of tariffs by the U.S. on China and Mexico for an additional 90 days has alleviated pressure on overseas demand [4]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - In July, the average operating rate of high-generation LCD TV panel production lines was approximately 78%, a decrease of only 2 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a relatively loose supply situation [5]. - The G8.6 production line, which is the main production control line, saw a reduction of about 5 percentage points, which may help stabilize prices for ultra-large panels of 85 inches and above [5]. - In August, brand stocking demand is expected to recover, with the operating rate anticipated to rise to around 80%, and panel shipments are projected to increase by 7% year-on-year [5]. Group 3: Price Trends - Overall demand for panels in August is expected to remain weak, with prices continuing to decline but showing signs of differentiation. The price for the mainstream 32-inch panel is expected to stabilize at $32, while prices for medium to large panels may see a decline of $1 to $4 compared to July [6]. - The expected prices for various panel sizes in August are as follows: 43-inch at $63, 50-inch at $87, 65-inch at $113, 75-inch at $165, and 85-inch at $220 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a potential recovery in terminal demand for TV display panels due to the arrival of national subsidy funds and brands preparing for the peak season, despite ongoing price declines in the panel market [2][4]. Group 1: Market Demand - In Q2, domestic TV sales volume decreased by 10% year-on-year, primarily due to the suspension of national subsidy policies in several provinces [4]. - The end of the 618 shopping festival and a funding gap in "old-for-new" subsidies led to weakened terminal demand in July [5]. - With the national subsidy funds fully in place in August and brands ramping up inventory for the peak season, terminal demand is expected to show signs of mild recovery [4][5]. Group 2: Supply Side Dynamics - In July, the average operating rate for high-generation LCD TV panel production was approximately 78%, with a slight decrease of 2 percentage points, indicating a relatively loose supply situation [6]. - The operating rate is expected to increase to around 80% in August as brands begin to restore inventory needs, with panel shipments projected to grow by 7% year-on-year [6]. Group 3: Price Trends - The overall demand for panels in August is anticipated to remain weak, with prices continuing to decline but at a slower rate [7]. - The price for the mainstream 32" panel is expected to stabilize at $32, while prices for larger panels (43" to 85") may see a decline of $1 to $4 compared to July [7].

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of national subsidy policies in June has negatively impacted domestic market demand expectations, leading to a general decline in panel prices. However, the reintroduction of subsidies in July may support market confidence, although weakened policy benefits and exhausted consumer potential could limit demand recovery in the second half of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - In June, the reduction or suspension of national subsidy policies in several provinces affected sales expectations for the 618 shopping festival, resulting in a general decline in panel prices [3][4]. - The domestic market demand is closely linked to the "old-for-new" subsidy policy, which has shown positive year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances since its implementation [3]. - The third batch of 138 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" policy is expected to be released in mid-July, potentially boosting demand in the second half of the year [3][4]. Group 2: Price Trends - Overall panel prices are expected to continue declining in July, with significant price drops for large-sized panels. The anticipated price ranges for mainstream panels from 32" to 85" are $32, $65, $92, $118, $169, $227, and $307, respectively, indicating a decrease of $1 to $3 from June prices [2][5]. - The supply side is adjusting production rates to stabilize panel prices, with the average utilization rate for G8.5 production lines around 73% in Q2, down approximately 4 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. Group 3: External Market Influences - The expiration of the tariff buffer period for imports from China and Southeast Asia may lead to a preemptive increase in procurement demand, which could provide short-term support for panel prices [4]. - However, the ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty regarding tariffs are expected to negatively impact long-term panel demand and pricing [4].