以下文章来源于CINNO ，作者CINNO CINNO . CINNO Research为显示及半导体行业专业第三方咨询服务机构，为您深入全球光电产业链上下游，提供最新产 业资讯、专业行研报告、投资并购、精准行销、高端猎头等一站式服务。一键订阅，同100万产业精英一起把握 行业脉动！ "今年9月，品牌商持续为四季度旺季备货，面板需求维持高位，LCD TV面板价格全线接近止跌。进入四 季度，尽管备货周期接近尾声，但国内外"双十一"、"黑五"等促销节点仍对10月需求形成一定支撑，同 时，面板厂则通过控产稳定价格，在供需双方策略协同下，10月面板价格有望逐步趋稳。 " | | Size & Resolution | | Technology | Sep.25' | Oct.25'(E) | Differ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 32" | 60Hz | HD | LCD | $32.0 | $32.0 | $0.0 | | 43" | 60Hz | FHD | LCD | $64.0 | $64.0 | $0.0 | | 50" | 60Hz ...

从面板供给侧来看，据CINNO Research数据显示：今年三季度，电视品牌厂商增加采购订单，面板厂依据品牌订单按需生产，高世代线平均稼动率预计 提升至82%，环比增长近三个百分点，带动LCD TV面板出货量同比增长7.6%。进入四季度，为应对需求回调，多数面板厂在10月第一周通过5~7天的产 能调控，预计10月稼动率将回落至80%以下。此次休假策略不仅直接助力面板厂在10月底前控制库存、节约运营成本，也有助于缓和电视市场的潜在供需 矛盾，进而为10月LCD TV面板价格的稳定构筑了关键支撑。 CINNO Research统计数据表明，今年10月面板整体需求维持稳定，预计绝大部分面板价格将趋于稳定，具体来看，32"至75"面板价格与9月相比基本持 平，预计价格分别为：32美元、64美元、88美元、110美元、165美元和221美元，不过，85"和98"等超大尺寸因需求支撑不足，价格或将承压微跌，预计 分别下跌2美元和5美元至290美元和455美元水平。展望后市，四季度面板价格走势后续将聚焦于面板厂的控产力度以及终端市场的消费能力。 CINNO Research 简评 今年三季度，品牌商为应对年终旺季而进行的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic TV market in China experienced a 10% year-on-year decline in sales volume in Q2, primarily due to the suspension of national subsidy policies in several provinces and cities. However, demand is expected to recover moderately in August as subsidy funds are fully allocated and brands prepare for the peak season [3][4]. Group 1: Demand Side Analysis - In July, the end of the 618 shopping festival and a funding gap in the "trade-in" subsidy program led to weakened terminal demand. However, as August approaches, traditional stocking season is near, and brands have significantly reduced inventory, enhancing stocking momentum [4]. - The third batch of 690 billion yuan "trade-in" special bonds was fully allocated on August 1, with a fourth batch of the same amount expected to be released in October, which is likely to boost demand in the second half of the year [4]. - The extension of tariffs by the U.S. on China and Mexico for an additional 90 days has alleviated pressure on overseas demand [4]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - In July, the average operating rate of high-generation LCD TV panel production lines was approximately 78%, a decrease of only 2 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a relatively loose supply situation [5]. - The G8.6 production line, which is the main production control line, saw a reduction of about 5 percentage points, which may help stabilize prices for ultra-large panels of 85 inches and above [5]. - In August, brand stocking demand is expected to recover, with the operating rate anticipated to rise to around 80%, and panel shipments are projected to increase by 7% year-on-year [5]. Group 3: Price Trends - Overall demand for panels in August is expected to remain weak, with prices continuing to decline but showing signs of differentiation. The price for the mainstream 32-inch panel is expected to stabilize at $32, while prices for medium to large panels may see a decline of $1 to $4 compared to July [6]. - The expected prices for various panel sizes in August are as follows: 43-inch at $63, 50-inch at $87, 65-inch at $113, 75-inch at $165, and 85-inch at $220 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a potential recovery in terminal demand for TV display panels due to the arrival of national subsidy funds and brands preparing for the peak season, despite ongoing price declines in the panel market [2][4]. Group 1: Market Demand - In Q2, domestic TV sales volume decreased by 10% year-on-year, primarily due to the suspension of national subsidy policies in several provinces [4]. - The end of the 618 shopping festival and a funding gap in "old-for-new" subsidies led to weakened terminal demand in July [5]. - With the national subsidy funds fully in place in August and brands ramping up inventory for the peak season, terminal demand is expected to show signs of mild recovery [4][5]. Group 2: Supply Side Dynamics - In July, the average operating rate for high-generation LCD TV panel production was approximately 78%, with a slight decrease of 2 percentage points, indicating a relatively loose supply situation [6]. - The operating rate is expected to increase to around 80% in August as brands begin to restore inventory needs, with panel shipments projected to grow by 7% year-on-year [6]. Group 3: Price Trends - The overall demand for panels in August is anticipated to remain weak, with prices continuing to decline but at a slower rate [7]. - The price for the mainstream 32" panel is expected to stabilize at $32, while prices for larger panels (43" to 85") may see a decline of $1 to $4 compared to July [7].

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of national subsidy policies in June has negatively impacted domestic market demand expectations, leading to a general decline in panel prices. However, the reintroduction of subsidies in July may support market confidence, although weakened policy benefits and exhausted consumer potential could limit demand recovery in the second half of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - In June, the reduction or suspension of national subsidy policies in several provinces affected sales expectations for the 618 shopping festival, resulting in a general decline in panel prices [3][4]. - The domestic market demand is closely linked to the "old-for-new" subsidy policy, which has shown positive year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances since its implementation [3]. - The third batch of 138 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" policy is expected to be released in mid-July, potentially boosting demand in the second half of the year [3][4]. Group 2: Price Trends - Overall panel prices are expected to continue declining in July, with significant price drops for large-sized panels. The anticipated price ranges for mainstream panels from 32" to 85" are $32, $65, $92, $118, $169, $227, and $307, respectively, indicating a decrease of $1 to $3 from June prices [2][5]. - The supply side is adjusting production rates to stabilize panel prices, with the average utilization rate for G8.5 production lines around 73% in Q2, down approximately 4 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. Group 3: External Market Influences - The expiration of the tariff buffer period for imports from China and Southeast Asia may lead to a preemptive increase in procurement demand, which could provide short-term support for panel prices [4]. - However, the ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty regarding tariffs are expected to negatively impact long-term panel demand and pricing [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of domestic subsidy policies and international tariff changes on the panel market, indicating a downward trend in panel prices due to weakened demand and supply conditions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Demand - In June, tightening of national subsidy policies in various regions affected domestic market demand expectations, leading to a general decline in panel prices [2][3]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy is closely linked to domestic market demand, with retail sales of home appliances showing continuous positive growth until June [4]. - The expected recovery of national subsidies in July may boost market confidence, but the overall demand in the second half of the year may still face pressure due to reduced subsidy amounts and heightened eligibility criteria [3][4]. Group 2: Market Supply - Panel suppliers have adjusted production rates in response to weakened demand, with the average utilization rate of G8.5 production lines around 73% in Q2, down approximately 4 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - The overall utilization rate for high-generation lines is expected to remain around 80% in July, with potential adjustments to production to stabilize panel prices [5][6]. - The article anticipates that panel prices will continue to decline in July, with price reductions of $1 to $3 expected across various panel sizes compared to June [6]. Group 3: Price Trends - The article provides a detailed price forecast for various panel sizes, indicating a continued downward trend in prices for July, with specific price points for sizes ranging from 32" to 85" [6]. - The expected prices for July are $32 for 32", $65 for 43", $92 for 50", $118 for 55", $169 for 65", $227 for 75", and $307 for 85" [6].

Core Viewpoint - CINNO Research indicates that the panel supply-demand relationship remains balanced in May, with stable panel prices expected across various sizes compared to April [1][4]. Group 1: Panel Price Stability - The prices for mainstream panels ranging from 32" to 85" are projected to remain unchanged from April, with prices at $35, $67, $97, $121, $173, $231, and $312 respectively [2][1]. - The overall price trend is expected to be flat in the second quarter due to improved capacity optimization by panel manufacturers [1]. Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - In April, the U.S. tariff situation led to a slowdown in inventory buildup in the overseas TV market, shifting procurement strategies from aggressive to more cautious [4]. - Domestic demand has started to decline as the effects of previous policies and early demand release are felt, transitioning the panel price cycle from expansion to a plateau phase [4]. - The proactive inventory buildup by brand manufacturers has resulted in increased stock levels, leading to reduced enthusiasm for further inventory accumulation [4]. Group 3: International Market Influences - The U.S. retail market has seen an 18% decline in port throughput during the tariff transition period, reducing the urgency for brands to stock up [5]. - The combination of excess inventory and weakened terminal demand for LCD TVs has contributed to a collective stagnation in panel prices [5]. - Panel manufacturers are implementing production control strategies to stabilize prices, with average utilization rates expected to drop to 75% in May [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariff policies and changing market dynamics on the panel industry, indicating a shift from aggressive inventory strategies to more conservative approaches due to declining demand and high inventory levels [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Demand - In April, U.S. tariff policies entered a transitional phase, leading to a slowdown in inventory buildup among brands, with procurement strategies shifting from aggressive to cautious [4]. - Domestic market demand has started to decline, influenced by the diminishing effects of the "national subsidy" policy and high inventory levels from the first quarter [5][6]. - The global TV market demand showed signs of weakening in May, driven by reduced urgency for inventory buildup and high existing stock levels [6][7]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - Panel prices are expected to stabilize in the second quarter, with no significant changes in prices for mainstream panel sizes from April to May [8]. - The average operating rate of high-generation panel manufacturers is projected to drop to 80% in the second quarter, with further reductions expected in May [7]. - The price of LCD TV panels is anticipated to remain flat, with prices for sizes ranging from 32" to 85" holding steady at $35, $67, $97, $121, $173, $231, and $312 respectively [8]. Group 3: Supply-Side Adjustments - Panel manufacturers are implementing production control measures to stabilize prices, with expected reductions in output rates due to weakened demand [7]. - The average operating rate may further decline to 75% in May, with a projected year-on-year decrease in LCD TV panel shipments by 8% [7]. - The supply-demand relationship is expected to maintain a balanced state, contributing to a stable pricing environment in the near term [8].

01 今年3月，美国关税政策的预期与正式执行关税前的实际操作为品牌商赢得海外市场备货缓冲期； 在"以旧换新"补贴政策的支持下，国内市场各品牌在AWE展会中积极推出今年春季新品机型并为 618大促提前备货，进一步推动TV市场短期需求回升。进入4月，美对华关税战升级且前期需求透 支，终端采购动力不足，导致库存水位偏高。在需求转弱的情况下，部分面板厂为稳定价格可能 会考虑控产。 " 今 年 3 月 ， 在 美 国 关 税 政 策 频 繁 变 动 、 国 内 品 牌 春 季 新 品 集 中 放 量 及 " 以 旧 换 新 " 政 策 带 动 下 ， 短期需求仍维持高位，因面板供应端持续高稼动出货，面板价格涨幅开始收窄。进入4月，随着二 季度部分需求提前释放叠加美对华关税贸易战升级，面板供需进入弱平衡状态，预计4月面板价格 将出现拐点。" | | | | | Worldwide TV Display Panel Price Dynamic | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Size & Resolution | | | Technology | Ma ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the LCD TV panel market, highlighting a strong domestic demand driven by the "old-for-new" policy and brand preparations for new product launches, while also noting potential declines in overseas demand due to increased tariffs [3][4]. Market Dynamics and Tariff Impact - In February, the delay of U.S. tariffs on Mexico allowed brands to prepare for overseas market stocking, while domestic demand remained strong due to the continuation of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy [3]. - The implementation of a 25% tariff on Mexican goods and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports is expected to slow down overseas market demand, creating a "cold outside, hot inside" market dynamic [3][4]. Demand Side Analysis - The "old-for-new" policy has boosted market confidence, prompting brands to prepare for new product launches in 2025, with some brands advancing their release schedules [3]. - Despite rising panel prices, they remain lower compared to the same period last year, leading to increased domestic demand as brands stock up for the upcoming 618 shopping festival [3]. - The new tariffs will raise costs for TV panels exported to the U.S., potentially leading to higher retail prices and reduced consumer demand in the U.S. market [3][4]. Supply Side Dynamics - In February, panel orders increased, with domestic high-generation production lines operating at over 85% capacity [4]. - Due to the anticipated decline in overseas demand from tariff impacts, Chinese panel manufacturers may reduce production rates to manage supply [4]. - Increased tariffs will raise operational and logistics costs for U.S. market orders, potentially compressing profit margins [4]. March LCD TV Panel Price Forecast - CINNO Research predicts a narrowing increase in panel prices for March, with small price hikes of $1 for mainstream sizes (32" to 65") compared to February [5]. - Larger sizes (75" and 85") are expected to see a $2 increase due to stronger domestic demand, with prices projected to reach $231 and $312 respectively [5].