Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The current futures market has entered the expected trading stage. The expectation of state reserve purchases has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment. The spot price has been continuously strengthening, and the futures market is undergoing basis repair. A large number of piglets sold by large - scale farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, and subsequent spot performance should be monitored. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex, and it is necessary to judge the path based on factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer hoarding. Wait for subsequent spot verification and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. In the short term, the support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 15,130 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2509 contract is 14,340 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,550 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 contract is 13,575 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2509 contract is 80,558 lots, an increase of 58,279 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 83,925 lots, an increase of 5,729 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2511 contract is 15,375 lots, an increase of 10,983 lots, and the open interest is 42,922 lots, an increase of 1,156 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2601 contract is 6,507 lots, an increase of 4,709 lots, and the open interest is 17,841 lots, an increase of 227 lots [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2509 contract is 790 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2511 contract is 1,580 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2601 contract is 1,555 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The spread between Pig 9 - 11 is 790 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan/ton; the spread between Pig 11 - 1 is - 25 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [4]. 3.3 Market Logic The futures market is in the expected trading stage. Factors such as state reserve purchase expectations and short - term bullish sentiment are driving the market. The large number of piglets sold in the first quarter will affect the supply starting from July. The inventory reduction path is complex, and it is necessary to wait for spot verification and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support and resistance levels for the LH2509 contract are given [5].