中辉期货钢材周报 钢价区间波动，等待矛盾积累 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 报告日期：2025/11/21 分析师：陈为昌 中辉黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周黑色板块表现继续分化，螺纹主力合约周涨0.1%，热卷涨0.4%，铁矿涨1.7%，焦炭跌3.3% ，焦煤跌7.5%，煤焦延续偏弱表现。供需层面看，螺纹钢和热卷产量及需求环比回升。库存有所下降，库存去 化速度较前期有所好转。铁水数据持稳，钢厂主动减限产意愿不强，11月铁水或偏稳运行。螺纹热卷基差较 同期相比处于中性水平，基差修复驱动有限。宏观题材缺乏，前期提供支撑的焦煤供给端有所松动，期货价格 率先走弱。 【策略建议】：钢材行情延续平淡走势，房地产、基建、家电等下游需求数据进一步走弱，黑色整体行情仍然 受弱需求压制。短期看，钢材库存、成本、基差等矛盾均比较有限，难以提供向上或向下的强驱动。原料补库 的向上驱动与产业负反馈的向下驱动或成为下一阶段行情博弈的焦点，等待矛盾积累过程中，行情或维持区间 窄幅波动。 【风险与关注】：政策动态、铁水 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests patience with the Iron Ore 05 contract, waiting for basis repair and market sentiment to improve. Consider shorting at a high price after the contract rebounds above 770 yuan to enhance safety margins. Shorting at current price and basis levels may lead to double losses [2][3][5]. - The short - term price of iron ore is strong, mainly driven by the strong coking coal price. However, the policy is now focused on "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", and coking coal prices are expected to fall, which will support iron ore prices [3]. - The current fundamentals of iron ore are in short - term supply - demand balance. Although the overall port inventory is high, the shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, a strong spot market, and a widened basis [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Leveraging Factors**: Decreasing port inventory of deliverable mainstream medium - high grade powder ores supports near - month contracts and basis; the sharp decline in coking coal prices creates room for iron ore prices; steel demand has improved and inventory has decreased [3]. - **Negative Factors**: China is in a macro - vacuum period with weak high - frequency economic data; the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has dropped significantly, reducing market risk appetite [3]. - **Market Situation**: Iron ore prices are in a wide - range shock, with short - term strength driven by coking coal. The coking coal price is expected to fall due to policy changes. Iron ore fundamentals are in short - term balance, with high basis and a positive spread pattern [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait for basis repair before considering shorting the far - month contract of iron ore [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - The Iron Ore 2601 contract should be traded within the range of [760, 810] [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about price drops, short the iron ore futures directly (I2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at 820 - 830; sell call options (I2512 - C - 830) with a 30% ratio at high prices [7]. - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, go long on iron ore futures directly (I2512) with a 30% hedging ratio at 780 - 790; sell out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 780) with a 40% ratio at high prices [7]. 1.4 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: Iron water cost increased by 45.18 yuan/ton week - on - week and 105.16 yuan/ton month - on - month; blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 23 yuan/ton week - on - week; blast furnace rebar profit remained unchanged week - on - week [7]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Data**: Global shipments increased by 447.4 tons week - on - week; Australian and Brazilian shipments increased by 390.3 tons week - on - week; 45 - port arrivals decreased by 472.3 tons week - on - week [8]. - **Iron Ore Demand Data**: Daily average steel mill shipments increased by 2.97 tons week - on - week; daily average iron water production decreased by 0.6 tons week - on - week; blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62% week - on - week [10]. - **Iron Ore Inventory Data**: 45 - port imported ore inventory decreased by 75.06 tons week - on - week; steel mill imported ore inventory decreased by 74.78 tons week - on - week [11]. 2. Supply 2.1 Global Shipment Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of global iron ore shipments, year - to - date cumulative global shipment differences, and the relationship between cumulative global shipment differences and iron ore index closing prices [12]. 2.2 Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis - Studied the seasonality of shipments from the four major mines, year - to - date cumulative shipment differences, and the relationship between cumulative shipment differences and iron ore index closing prices [16][17]. 2.3 Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of non - mainstream mine shipments, year - to - date cumulative shipment differences, and the relationship between the Platts iron ore index and non - mainstream mine shipments. Also examined the proportion of non - mainstream mines and four major mines in global shipments [22][26]. 2.4 Arrival and Berthing Analysis - Studied the seasonality of arrivals at 47 ports, year - to - date cumulative arrival volume differences, the number of ships at berth, berthing days, and actual arrival volume [28][30][32]. 2.5 Capsize Shipping Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of freight prices for capsize ships on different routes, the proportion of iron ore freight in different products, and the seasonality of capsize ship speeds [36][39][41]. 2.6 Domestic Ore Supply Analysis - Examined the seasonality of daily average iron concentrate production of 186 mining enterprises and monthly iron concentrate production of 433 mining enterprises, as well as the year - to - date cumulative daily average production seasonality and monthly production year - on - year changes [44][46]. 3. Demand Analysis 3.1 Iron Water Analysis - Studied the seasonality of daily average iron water production of 247 steel enterprises, the relationship between iron water production and blast furnace maintenance, and the relationship between iron water production and iron ore prices [48][50][52]. 3.2 Steel Mill Profit Analysis - Analyzed the production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the relationship between profits and future production of different steel products [54][57][60]. 3.3 Downstream Steel Analysis: Rebar - Studied the production, consumption, inventory, and price - cost relationship of rebar, as well as the production proportion of short - process steel mills and the relationship between rebar prices and cement shipments [66][71][72]. 3.4 Downstream Steel Analysis: Hot - rolled Coil - Analyzed the production, consumption, inventory, and price differences of hot - rolled coils [74][75][77]. 3.6 Downstream Steel Analysis: Medium - thick Plate - Studied the production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [79][80]. 3.5 Export Analysis - Analyzed China's steel export volume, port outbound volume, export orders, and export profits of hot - rolled coils [99][100][101]. 4. Inventory Analysis 4.1 Port Inventory Analysis - Studied the seasonality of 45 - port iron ore imports, the structure of port inventory, and the relationship between inventory and iron ore prices [103][105][107]. 4.2 Other Inventory Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of iron ore imports in 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of steel mills and in - transit iron ore, and the estimated turnover days of iron ore inventory [122][123]. 5. Valuation Analysis 5.1 Basis and Term Structure - Provided the basis and delivery profit data of different iron ore varieties, and analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different iron ore contracts and the term structure of iron ore futures [124][125]. 5.2 Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio - Studied the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio for different contracts [127]. 5.3 Coking Coal Ratio Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of the coking coal - iron ore spread for different contracts and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore prices [129][130]. 5.4 Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis - Studied the iron - scrap steel price difference, the relationship between the iron - scrap steel price difference and scrap steel consumption ratio, and the relationship between the iron - scrap steel price difference and iron water - scrap steel daily consumption [132][133][135].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Spot Regional Differentiation, Corn Focus on Low-Long Opportunities; Pig Prices Start Bottoming, Futures Trading for Basis Repair; Strong Expectation but Weak Reality, Eggs Focus on Regression Repair" - Report Date: October 24, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Xiaojun - Contact Information: 0371 - 65617380 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F0242716 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011864 [2][3] Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Corn: Spot prices show regional differentiation, with Northeast China rebounding from a decline and North China relatively weak. There are low-long opportunities, and a range trading strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [5][7]. - Pigs: Pig prices are starting to bottom out, and the futures market is trading for basis repair. Near-term contracts will follow the supply-demand logic, while far-term contracts will trade on the expected difference in sow de-capacity [9][11]. - Eggs: There is a situation of strong expectation but weak reality. Eggs should focus on regression repair. Before large-scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, a high-short strategy is maintained [14][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Important Information - On the 24th, the purchase price of deep-processing enterprises in Northeast China was 2015 yuan/ton, and in North China it was 2230 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices at north and south ports were mainly weak and stable [5]. - As of October 24, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged from the previous day, totaling 61,968 [5]. - The wheat-corn price difference in Shandong was +270 yuan/ton as of October 23 [5]. - More than 60% of the autumn grain harvest nationwide is complete. The purchase by the China Grain Reserves Corporation in Northeast China has supported the market sentiment, and the autumn harvest in North China is accelerating [5]. Market Logic - Short term: The spot price in Northeast China has stopped falling and stabilized, while North China is stable with a weak trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of continuous rain in North China on yield and grain quality. The lower support for the futures price is in the range of 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is related to the wheat-corn price difference [6]. - Medium term: Band trading should be carried out around the drivers of new-season corn, focusing on the opening price of new grain, farmers' selling sentiment, and downstream inventory building efforts. A wide-range trading strategy is recommended [6]. - Long term: The pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost is maintained, and policy guidance should be closely monitored [6]. Trading Strategy - In the medium and long term, a range trading strategy is maintained. Pay attention to the low-long opportunities of the 2601 contract after a pullback to test the support level at 2100. The first pressure level is 2150, and the second is 2160 - 2170 [7]. Pigs Important Information - On the 24th, the national average pig price was 11.74 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day. It is expected that the pig price will be weak in the north and stable in the south on the morning of the 25th [9]. - In September 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%, still 103.46% of the normal level. The number of new-born piglets in the first half of the year was at a historical high, indicating an increasing supply of pigs in the second half of the year [9]. - As of October 23, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.6 kg, an increase of 0.09 kg from the previous week [13]. - On October 24, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.32 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [13]. - On October 24, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts increased by 95 to 206 [13]. Market Logic - Short term: After a rapid decline, pig prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the spot market may enter a low-level shock bottoming stage. The futures market will continue the basis repair logic [10]. - Medium term: The number of new-born piglets from February to June increased month-on-month, indicating an expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year, which limits the rise in pig prices [10]. - Long term: The number of fertile sows is still higher than the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased year-on-year. If there is no impact from epidemics, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [10]. Trading Strategy - The policy guidance on sow de-capacity can only affect the pig supply from the second half of next year. Near-term contracts will follow the supply-demand logic. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions and wait and see. Far-term contracts should trade on the expected difference in sow de-capacity, and pay attention to the actual change in sow inventory. Do not be overly bullish on far-term contracts before obvious sow de-capacity occurs [11]. - For the 2601 contract, the support level is 11300 - 11500, and the pressure level is 12300 - 12500. For the 2603 contract, the support is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure is 11700 - 11800. For the 2605 contract, the support is 11800 - 11900, and the pressure is 12200 - 12300. For the 2607 contract, the support is 12400 - 12600, and the pressure is 12800 - 13000 [11]. Eggs Important Information - On the 24th, the main line of egg spot prices rose slightly, and the low-price areas were stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.9 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas it was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin [14]. - On the 24th, the inventory level was stable with a slight increase. The average production link inventory nationwide was 1.04 days, up 0.01 days from the previous day, and the circulation link inventory was 1.1 days, unchanged from the previous day [14]. - On the 24th, the average price of old hens was 4.1 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of October 23, the weekly culling age of old hens was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [14]. - In September, the number of laying hens in the country was about 1.368 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.22% and a year-on-year increase of 6.05%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in October is 1.36 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.56% [14]. Market Logic - Short term: Egg prices have fallen to a low level, and downstream inventory replenishment has driven the inventory down, causing egg prices to stop falling and rebound [14]. - Medium term: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term remains unchanged. The culling age of chickens is still high, the supply pressure of eggs has not been significantly released, and the short-term downstream consumption is relatively weak. It is expected that the spot price will lack continuous upward momentum. When the inventory stops falling and starts to rise, the spot price will be weak. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scale of chicken culling driven by low prices [14]. - Long term: The continuous increase in the scale of egg chicken farming may extend the price bottoming cycle. Wait patiently for the de-capacity process driven by excessive culling in the farming sector [15]. Trading Strategy - Before large-scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, a high-short strategy is maintained. Near-term contracts will continue the basis repair logic. The futures market rose significantly in the last two trading days of this week, but there is no substantial bullish driver in the fundamentals. It was suggested in the morning report on Friday to consider stopping profits on previous short positions. In the situation of strong expectation but weak reality, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for trading opportunities when the fundamentals and the market sentiment resonate [15].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a delivery report for the 2510 contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil in October 2025 [2][3] - The delivery settlement price of the rebar 2510 contract is 2954 yuan/ton, at a discount to the spot price, mainly due to the continuous contraction of building material demand and weak market expectations [3][5] - The delivery settlement price of the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract is 3534 yuan/ton, at a premium to the spot price, and it's the first significant premium delivery in recent years due to the weakening of the basis on the last trading day [3][24] Group 2: Rebar 2510 Contract Delivery Summary Delivery Price and Basis Repair Path - The rebar 2510 contract is at a discount delivery, with discounts of 226 and 236 yuan/ton to Shanghai and Tianjin spot prices respectively [5] - In Q3 2025, domestic steel prices rose first and then fell. The supply-demand contradiction accumulated during the continuous release of production, putting pressure on prices [3][5] - The peak-season consumption was still lower than previous years. The basis was strong from August to September, and the large discount structure suppressed the delivery enthusiasm [5] Delivery Volume and Position Change - The total delivery volume of the Rb2510 contract is 76,200 tons, mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Guangdong. The warehouse registered warehouse receipts on the last trading day were 277,000 tons, not all completed for delivery [8] - The delivery parties were relatively scattered, mainly participating in hedging and basis trading [8] Inter - period Strategy Summary - The demand of the 2510 contract was weak, and the delivery settlement price was at the lowest level in recent years [17] - The far - month contracts were at a premium to the near - month contracts. As of October 15, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar steel closed at - 84 yuan/ton [17] - The main driver of the 10 - 1 reverse spread was the weak reality, with insufficient near - month demand and relatively stronger far - month performance supported by policies [17] Group 3: Hot - rolled Coil 2510 Delivery Summary Delivery Price and Basis Repair Path - The hot - rolled coil 2510 contract is at a premium delivery, with premiums of 254 and 274 yuan/ton to Shanghai and Tianjin spot prices respectively [24] - The basis weakened significantly on the last trading day, and the scattered seller seats and poor delivery concentration led to a sharp rise in the settlement price due to virtual position closing [24] Delivery Volume and Position Change - The delivery volume of the HC2510 contract is 66,000 tons, significantly lower than the HC2410 contract and at a medium - low level in recent years [32] - The delivery warehouse receipts were mainly concentrated in Jiangsu. The factory warehouse receipts increased significantly after the change of delivery rules, which facilitated hedging for traders and increased their participation enthusiasm [32] Inter - period Strategy Summary - The average level of the 10 - 1 positive spread of hot - rolled coil was higher than the same period in previous years [38] - As of October 15, the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil expanded to 398 yuan/ton, a new high in recent years, mainly due to the insufficient delivery ability of the seller and the sharp rise of the 2510 contract price caused by the departure of virtual positions [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs increased, with the main contract 2511 rising 2.38% weekly. The supply side sees an increase in the number of pigs for sale and a decrease in the weight of pigs for sale, while the demand side is currently weak but is expected to improve significantly during the student enrollment and double - festival stocking periods. The current spot price is falling due to increased supply and weak demand, but the near - month contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline in the short term due to basis repair. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs increased, and the main contract 2511 rose 2.38% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers are selling more pigs with lower weights, and the government has proposed measures to control production capacity. On the demand side, the supply of pigs is sufficient, and the demand in some areas has recovered slightly, but high temperatures still suppress the willingness to buy pork. It is expected that demand will improve significantly during the student enrollment and double - festival stocking periods. Overall, the increase in the number of pigs for sale and weak current demand lead to a decline in the spot price, but the near - month contracts are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price increased, and the main contract 2511 rose 2.38% weekly [6][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position decreased, and there were 380 futures warehouse receipts [12]. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price was 14.34 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from last week and down 3.04% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 31.24 yuan/kg, down 1.48 yuan/kg from last week and 8.2% from last month [27]. - **Pork and Sows Prices**: The national pork market price was 25.21 yuan/kg on July 31, down 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: The pig - to - grain ratio was 6.05 as of July 30, down 0.11 from the previous week and below the break - even point [36]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In late June 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, up 10,000 month - on - month and 0.12% year - on - year, reaching 103.7% of the normal inventory. In July, the inventory of reproductive sows in large - scale farms increased slightly, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly [41]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million, up 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In July, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased [44]. - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In July, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid pigs was 123.32 kg, down 0.21 kg from last week [48]. Industry Profit and Related Factors - **Livestock Farming Profit**: As of August 8, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was a loss of 134.14 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 17.36 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 45.13 yuan/head, up 1.27 yuan/head month - on - month. The profit of laying hens was a loss of 0.31 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 0.15 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.15 yuan/head [53]. - **Pork Import**: From January to June 2025, China imported 540,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, which was at a historically low level [58]. - **Substitute Product Price**: As of the week of August 8, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.90 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from last week; the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.37 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from last week [61]. - **Feed Price and Production**: As of August 8, the spot price of soybean meal was 3015.43 yuan/ton, up 37.72 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2395.59 yuan/ton, down 7.16 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 930.53, down 0.6% from last week; the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. In June 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons, up 175,600 tons month - on - month [67][70][75]. - **CPI**: As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year [79]. Downstream - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 32nd week, the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate was 26.94%, up 0.11 percentage points from last week and 3.27 percentage points year - on - year. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.66%, the same as last week; the frozen - product storage rate was 17.50%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week [82]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 30.06 million, down 6.53% from the previous month. In June 2025, the national catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. Pig - Related Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. but does not provide specific analysis [88][90]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price increases in various sectors, particularly in the new energy, building materials, and coal industries, driven by a shift away from excessive competition and a focus on structural adjustments in key industries [3][4]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Trends - Since July, the new energy sector has seen significant price increases, with polysilicon rising by 57%, industrial silicon by 20%, and lithium carbonate by 13% [3]. - In the black metal sector, coking coal has increased by 33.4%, with other commodities also experiencing gains of over 10% [3]. - The chemical sector has seen prices for caustic soda and alumina rise by more than 10%, while other energy, non-ferrous, and agricultural products have shown relatively muted performance [3]. Group 2: Futures vs. Spot Prices - The futures prices in the affected sectors have risen significantly faster than spot prices, leading to a rapid decrease in basis rates, such as polysilicon at -12% and coking coal at -11% [4]. - The future correction of basis rates will depend on the willingness of downstream buyers to restock and whether the arbitrage window opens for buying spot and hedging in futures [4]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is influenced by overly pessimistic views from the previous quarter, which led to active price reductions to clear inventory [4]. - Core inventory levels for some commodities are not high, indicating that if the downstream demand continues to improve, there could be a scenario where spot prices rise alongside futures, strengthening the basis [4]. Group 4: Downstream Purchasing Behavior - Downstream industries are exhibiting a "buy on the rise, sell on the fall" mentality, which could lead to synchronized price increases in both spot and futures markets if restocking occurs [4]. - The overall sentiment suggests that until inventory levels reach a relatively high point, commodities may continue to experience upward price pressure [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways with a Downward Bias [5][6] - Thermal Coal: Sideways with an Upward Bias in the Short Term, Supply Remains Loose in the Medium to Long Term [7] Core Views - Steel: Short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the steel market will maintain a sideways trend. The demand for steel still has resilience, and the fundamentals provide effective support [1]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals provide strong support, and the iron ore price will move up in a sideways manner. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Market sentiment has cooled, and the coking coal and coke market will move down in a sideways manner. The supply of coke is tight, and the demand from downstream steel enterprises remains resilient [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: As the temperature rises in July, the daily consumption is increasing, and the downstream demand is strengthening. The coal price will move up in a sideways manner in the short term, while the supply remains loose in the medium to long term [7]. Market Analysis Steel - Futures and Spot: Steel futures declined slightly yesterday. The spot price was relatively firm, and the overall basis continued to widen. The spot transaction volume was 8740 tons. In early July, the average daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises was 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period. The steel inventory was 15.07 million tons, a 2.4% decrease from the previous period. The average cost of billet in Tangshan was 2775 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 175 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: This week's data shows that the output of building materials increased, consumption decreased, and inventory increased; the production and sales of hot - rolled coils increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for steel still has resilience, and attention should be paid to basis repair, policy implementation, overseas tariffs, and hedging funds [1]. Iron Ore - Futures and Spot: Iron ore futures prices trended slightly upwards yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties rose slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills mainly replenished their stocks as needed. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1 million tons, a 1.48% decrease from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - delivery spot was 1.52 million tons, a 6.81% decrease from the previous day [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Although the molten iron output has declined, it is still at a relatively high level. The consumption of iron ore shows good resilience. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption intensity of steel during the off - season and the changes in iron ore inventory [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Futures and Spot: The futures prices of coking coal and coke trended downwards yesterday. The inventory of imported coal at ports was tight, and traders continued to hold up prices. Attention should be paid to port customs clearance and supply recovery [5]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: For coke, on the one hand, the price of raw coal remains high, and after the price increase is implemented, the profit of coke enterprises will improve, but the production willingness is still relatively conservative, and the supply remains tight; on the other hand, the profit of downstream steel enterprises is good, and the plant inventory is running at a low level, so the demand remains resilient. For coking coal, the market trading atmosphere is relatively active, and the downstream demand is stable. The supply is gradually recovering, but the overall recovery is limited. Attention should be paid to the coal mine recovery progress and the molten iron output of downstream steel mills during the traditional off - season [5][6]. Thermal Coal - Futures and Spot: In the production areas, some coal mines stopped production due to water accumulation and safety inspections, and mine owners were more willing to raise prices, with some coal varieties rising by 5 - 10 yuan. At ports, the upstream shipping cost increased, there was a structural shortage at ports, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement was completed stage by stage. As the high - temperature range expanded, the daily consumption increased, and traders were optimistic about the peak - season market, so the market coal price increased steadily. For imports, the price of high - calorie Australian coal was inverted compared with the domestic winning bid price, with low liquidity. The low - calorie Indonesian coal had obvious cost - performance advantages, and there were many downstream tenders [7]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: In July, as the temperature rises, the daily consumption is increasing, and the downstream demand is strengthening. The coal price will move up in a sideways manner in the short term. In the medium to long term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7]. Strategies Steel - Unilateral: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [2] Iron Ore - Unilateral: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Sideways - Coke: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [6] Thermal Coal - No specific strategy information provided

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The far - month basis has been repaired, meeting the daily report's expectations. With the US Treasury Secretary stating that China - US negotiations are in a "good situation", investors can consider partial profit - taking if the market rises today [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3]. - The short - term market is expected to rebound. Risk - takers who went long on the 2510 contract below 1300 can consider partial profit - taking if it continues to rise today, and it is recommended to short the EC2512 contract lightly above 1650 (with a stop - loss if participating). In the context of international situation turmoil, the structure is mainly in positive carry, with large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. For the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before judging the subsequent direction [4]. Summary by Related Content Shipping Indexes - On July 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2421.94 points, up 7.3% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1266.59 points, down 18.7% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1435.21 points, down 0.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1186.59 points, up 0.85% from the previous period [2]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2099 USD/TEU, down 0.10% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1726.41 points, up 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1027.49 points, down 5.2% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4), the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a two - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7), the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [2]. - In the US, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the preliminary services PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. Market and Policy - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a small price increase to test the market, with a slight rebound in the market [3]. - On July 15, the main contract 2510 closed at 1655.6, up 15.38%, with a trading volume of 107,800 lots and an open interest of 46,600 lots, an increase of 13,685 lots from the previous day [3]. - The sharp rise in the SCFIS for the European route drove bullish sentiment. With the roll - over of the main contract and the basis repair logic, the 2510 contract rose significantly. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Trade Tensions - The EU is prepared to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imports worth about 84 billion US dollars if the US - EU trade negotiation fails. Trump announced on July 12 that he would impose a 30% tariff on some EU imports starting from August 1 [5]. - A US Republican senator threatened countries including China with a 500% tariff if they continue to trade with Russia. China firmly opposes any illegal unilateral sanctions and long - arm jurisdiction and hopes for peaceful solutions to the Ukraine crisis [5]. Trading Regulations - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market has seen a significant upward trend, with the EC2510 contract rising over 16% today and over 20% in two days [8][9] - The main reasons for the sharp increase in the 10 and far - month contracts are the change of the main contract from 2508 to 2510, better - than - expected spot market and European port congestion, and some assistance from geopolitical factors [10][11] - In the future, there may still be a rush to transport in July. The current situation of the European route is stable reality and weak expectation. After the deep discount repair in the futures market, investors should not chase the high [11] - The strategy is to hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1733, down 1.71%; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1314, down 2.18%. Different routes have different changes, such as a 5.03% increase in SCFI - US West and a 7.22% increase in SCFIS - Northwest Europe [4] - **Contract Data**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., prices and their changes vary. For example, the EC2510 contract price is 1440.7, up 4.25%. The positions of different contracts also change, with the EC2410 position increasing by 3971 [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread is 586.5, down 62.1; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is - 139.8, up 19.1; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 361.9, up 13.1 [4] Geopolitical and Trade News - Israel has accepted a 60 - day cease - fire and hostage release agreement draft proposed by Qatar, but Hamas has rejected it. The core of the deadlock lies in the map parameters of the Israeli army's withdrawal from Gaza [5] - Israel's Defense Minister said that if Iran threatens Israel, Israel will strike Iran again [6] - Russian President Putin is privately urging Iran to accept a "zero enrichment" nuclear agreement in exchange for the possibility of a new nuclear agreement with the US [6] - The US has imposed a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, escalating trade tensions [6] - The Philippine government has ordered shipping agencies to avoid the Bab el - Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea due to attacks on commercial vessels [7] - US Secretary of State Rubio said that the possibility of a summit between US President Trump and China is high [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Views - The steel market is in high - level shock due to the cooling of policy expectations. The demand for steel still has resilience, and the annual production reduction target is expected to be achieved [1]. - The iron ore market shows resilient demand and is in shock operation. In the long - term, it presents a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is in range - bound shock. Coke price increase has been implemented, and the profit of coking plants has improved [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is still in a short - term shock - strengthening state due to the increasing daily consumption in summer. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Steel futures closed down yesterday. The main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures corrected to varying degrees. Spot trading was weak overall, but the willingness to hold prices was strong, and the basis widened. The spot trading volume was 8630 tons [1]. - Supply and demand and logic: The GDP in the first half of the year was well - completed. The expectations for the Politburo meeting and the Urban Work Conference were lower than expected, and the real estate data was still under pressure. The crude steel production from January to June decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the annual production reduction target is expected to be achieved, improving the supply - demand relationship. The steel demand has resilience, and the fundamentals provide effective support [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Shock [2] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price fluctuated yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The trading sentiment was average, and steel mills mainly replenished stocks on demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1.015 million tons, a 6.28% increase from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.631 million tons, a 3.49% decrease from the previous day [3]. - Supply and demand and logic: The molten iron production decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level in the same period. The consumption of iron ore showed good resilience. Affected by macro - sentiment, the iron ore price rebounded in the short - term. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the molten iron production and inventory changes during the off - season [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Shock [4] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The double - coking futures market continued the pattern of mixed gains and losses yesterday, showing a range - bound operation. The port inventory of imported coal was decreasing, and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. After the Nadam Fair, the coal supply at ports is expected to gradually recover. Mainstream steel mills have accepted the first round of coke price increase, improving the coking profit [5]. - Supply and demand and logic: For coke, due to the rising raw material prices, the production cost of coking plants increased, and the supply decreased. On the demand side, driven by the premium of the futures market, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders increased, and the demand from steel mills was better than expected during the off - season. For coking coal, the supply is gradually recovering but at a limited speed. After the port opens, the supply is expected to further increase. The demand side is active, and downstream enterprises have a good enthusiasm for replenishing stocks [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Shock [6] - Coke: Shock [6] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, as the temperature rises, the power load increases, and the pit - mouth coal price rises steadily. Some coal mines stopped production due to waterlogging and safety inspections, and the willingness to raise prices increased, with some coal types rising by 5 - 10 yuan. At the port, the upstream shipping cost increased, there was a structural shortage of coal, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement was completed. As the high - temperature range expanded, the daily consumption increased, and the market coal price rose steadily. For imports, the price of high - calorie Australian coal was inverted compared with the domestic winning bid price, with low liquidity. The low - calorie Indonesian coal had obvious cost - performance advantages, and there were many downstream tenders [7]. - Supply and demand and logic: In July, as the temperature rises, the daily consumption increases, and the downstream demand strengthens. The coal price is still in a short - term shock - strengthening state. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to the consumption and stock - replenishment of non - power coal [7]. Strategy Not provided in the content.