Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has limited improvement. Although the spot market followed up limitedly at the end of January, there is still an expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. Currently, the basis has been repaired, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to the recent new production capacity of plastics and its higher operating rate than PP, coupled with the fact that the concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate rose 0.5 percentage points to about 90.5% and is at a moderately high level, as the overhaul devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's full - density line 2 restarted. PP operating rate rose 0.5 percentage points to about 80% and is at a moderately low level, with the restart of overhaul devices like Maoming Petrochemical's second - line [13]. 2. Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of February 6, the PE downstream operating rate decreased 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, agricultural film orders and raw material inventories continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased, showing a seasonal decline. The PP downstream operating rate dropped 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the lunar calendar over the years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn - wire PP, decreased 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, with orders continuing to decline and slightly lower than last year [4][18]. 3. Plastic Basis - Both spot and futures prices fell, and the basis of the 05 contract slightly rose to - 62 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [22]. 4. Plastic and PP Inventories - The petrochemical early inventory on Friday increased 0.5 tons week - on - week to 42.5 tons, 8 tons lower than the same period of last year. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was depleted rapidly, and the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [26][27].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, with attention to pre - holiday capital reduction [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market sentiment is warming up, and the PTA basis is being repaired. The cost side is still influenced by the Iranian situation, and the geopolitical situation is complex [1]. - In the PX market, although the short - term fundamentals are weak due to supply increase expectations and demand - side maintenance plans, the medium - term outlook is positive [1]. - For PTA, the short - term supply and demand is in a state of accumulation, but in the long - term, as the capacity expansion cycle ends, the processing fee is expected to improve [1]. - In the demand side, the polyester operating rate is declining, the weaving load is dropping rapidly, and downstream enterprises are preparing for the Spring Festival holiday. Different polyester products have different profit and inventory situations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show the trends of TA and PX main contracts, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [7][8][13]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][17]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Cover toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [22][24]. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX operating rates in China and Asia [25][28][30]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Present PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various types of warehouse receipts for PTA, PX, and PF [35][38][39]. Downstream Polyester Load - Include the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and the operating rates of related industries such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [44][46][54]. PF Detailed Data - Provide information on polyester short - fiber load, inventory days, and the operating rates and profits of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [66][71][80]. PR Fundamental Details - Show polyester bottle - chip load, inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and inter - month spreads [84][86][94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of asphalt is decreasing, with the start - up rate at a low level and expected production in February 2026 decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream demand is weak, with most downstream industries' start - up rates falling, and the overall market is affected by factors such as raw material supply and geopolitical situation. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate in the short term, and the strategy of reverse arbitrage is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt start - up rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to be produced 193.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.4 million tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5 million tons (6.5%). Shandong refineries' production and shipments decreased. This week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil, keeping the asphalt start - up at a low level [1] - Demand side: The start - up rates of most downstream industries of asphalt fell last week. Road asphalt start - up remained flat at 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. Northern rigid demand is basically stagnant, but there is inventory - arbitrage demand, and southern projects are gradually coming to an end [1] - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - Raw materials: Venezuelan heavy crude oil supply to domestic refineries is severely restricted. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be much lower than before the US intervention [1] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the basis has been repaired but is still at a low level. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventory available before March. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the rebound of crude oil prices, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 1.69% to 3361 yuan/ton today, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3311 yuan/ton, the highest was 3384 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 11,833 to 98,945 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract dropped to - 111 yuan/ton, at a low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The start - up rate of asphalt decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. From January to December 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transport decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [4] - Downstream start - up: As of the week of January 30, most downstream industries' start - up rates of asphalt fell, and the road asphalt start - up remained flat at 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather [1][4] - Social financing: From January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.2 percentage points compared with that from January to November [4] - Inventory: As of the week of January 30, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 13.6% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

石油沥青日报 | 2026-02-04 站在沥青自身市场结构的角度，目前基本面处于供需两弱格局，成交量相对偏低。在BU盘面大跌后，沥青期现价 格有所收敛，基差出现修复。目前来看，如果抛开地缘与宏观层面的扰动，沥青市场自身矛盾相对有限，原料切 换带来的成本与收率变化可能会在3月份后逐步明朗，盘面短期回调后或转为震荡态势。 策略 单边：中性，关注美伊谈判进展 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 盘面地缘溢价回落，现货涨跌互现 市场分析 1、2月3日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3309元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌58元/吨，跌幅 1.72%；持仓110778手，环比下跌16712手，成交167414手，环比下跌129940手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—3600元/吨；山东，3210—3270元/吨；华南，3280—3320元/吨； 华东，3250—3280元/吨。 由于伊朗与美国计划开展谈判，地缘局势边际缓和，本周原油价格大幅回调，带动沥青在内的能化品价格下跌。 需要注意的是，在伊朗与美国谈判出相对明确的结果或信号前，市场可能受到消息面的反复扰动，叠加春节假 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2026-02-03 盘面大幅回撤，沥青基差反弹 市场分析 1、2月2日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3299元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌169元/吨，跌幅 4.87%；持仓127490手，环比下跌18383手，成交297354手，环比下跌65479手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—3550元/吨；山东，3250—3300元/吨；华南，3300—3320元/吨； 华东，3200—3280元/吨。 近期能源板块整体上涨背后有来自宏观、地缘、资金面等多重因素的驱动，上周五特朗普提名凯文沃什作为新一 任美联储主席，美元指数低位反弹，宏观情绪有所转弱，大宗商品流动性整体出现阶段性退潮。站在地缘层面来 看，上周伊朗局势较为紧张，市场担忧美国与以色列对伊朗采取军事打击，导致油市地缘溢价一度大幅攀升。周 末并未爆发冲突，从伊朗和美方最新表态来看局势有边际缓和的迹象，地缘溢价有所回落。在前期推涨因素退潮 后，昨日能源板块整体出现大幅下跌，沥青期货盘面跟随板块走低。 站在沥青自身市场结构的角度，目前基本面处于供需两弱格局，近期期货大涨带动基差走低，盘面大幅回撤时现 货端 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Urea [1] - Report Cycle: Weekly report - Date of Completion: January 23, 2026 [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current futures price of urea is supported by inventory reduction and demand recovery, but the high supply and the expansion of futures premium may lead to basis repair pressure [6]. - It is necessary to track whether the enterprise inventory can continue to decline, whether the port inventory starts to be destocked, whether the compound fertilizer operation rate can break through 45%, the agricultural fertilizer procurement rhythm, the expectation of new export quota release, and the transmission of international urea price fluctuations to the domestic market [6]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - This week, the main contract of urea futures showed a high - level volatile trend, with the futures premium continuously expanding. The market maintained range - bound fluctuations in the game between high supply and demand recovery. Short - term attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory destocking and export policy dynamics [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Supply side: The industry operating rate is 86.39%, with a daily output of 205,100 tons, at a high level in recent years. The resumption of gas - based and technical renovation devices has increased supply, suppressing the upward space of futures prices [4]. - Inventory: The total enterprise inventory is 946,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 40,100 tons, and the port inventory is 121,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The inventory destocking trend alleviates market concerns about oversupply [4]. - Demand side: The compound fertilizer operating rate is 42.96% (+2.88%), and the melamine operating rate is 63.65% (+1.47%), providing rigid support for industrial demand. In the agricultural sector, the procurement of winter and spring fertilizers has started, and some areas have followed up with off - season storage replenishment [4][5]. - Export: In December 2025, the export volume was 489,350 tons, and the export profit remained high. However, there is no news of new export quotas, and the actual export increment is limited [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The current futures price is supported by inventory destocking and demand recovery, but high supply and the expansion of futures premium may cause basis repair pressure. Key factors to track include inventory trends, compound fertilizer operation rate, agricultural procurement rhythm, export quota expectations, and international price transmissions [6].

1. Report Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - This week, the black sector showed a volatile trend, with the main contract of rebar rising 0.6% and hot-rolled coil rising 0.6%, while iron ore fell 0.3%, coke fell 1.8%, and coking coal fell 2.1%. The raw material end was weak, and the overall market was dull. Steel had limited contradictions in the off-season, and macro policies did not provide strong driving forces. The supply of raw materials was relatively loose, iron ore inventory reached the highest level in history, and Mongolian coal customs clearance continued to increase. This week, the molten iron output decreased month-on-month, reducing the support for raw materials. External commodity fluctuations increased, and after precious metals and non-ferrous metals soared, they fluctuated sharply. The Wenhua Commodity Index reached the previous high of 170 and then declined [2]. - In the context of the lack of positive drivers for black commodities, the weakening support of raw materials, and the commodity index reaching a key resistance level, it is expected that rebar will face significant pressure near the previous high. Currently, the market has entered the winter storage stage. Due to the need for rebar basis repair and the market's expectation of raw material replenishment by steel mills, it may support the futures market in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the possibility of the market weakening after the positive factors weaken. One can choose the opportunity to conduct sell hedging operations or sell out-of-the-money call options to enhance returns [2]. - There are obvious differences in inventory and basis between hot-rolled coil and rebar. The spot price difference between hot-rolled coil and rebar has weakened, and there is still room for the futures price difference to shrink [3]. - The basis in East China has dropped from around 150 last week to around 130, and there is still room for further decline. The spot performance may be weak [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Production - **Monthly Data**: In November 2025, the monthly output of pig iron was 6234000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, and the cumulative output was 77405000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. The monthly output of crude steel was 6987000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, and the cumulative output was 89167000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%. The monthly output of steel was 11591000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, and the cumulative output was 133277000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%. The monthly import volume of steel was 52000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and the cumulative import volume was 606000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The monthly export volume of steel was 1130000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and the cumulative export volume was 11902000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [6]. - **Weekly Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the weekly output of rebar was 190300 tons, a decrease of 0.74 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11%. The weekly consumption was 190340 tons, an increase of 15.38 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 8%. The inventory was 438070 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.84%. The weekly output of wire rod was 73490 tons, an increase of 0.58 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 7%. The weekly consumption was 72000 tons, an increase of 5.28 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10%. The inventory was 91760 tons, an increase of 1.95 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The weekly output of hot-rolled coil was 308360 tons, an increase of 2.85 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 314160 tons, an increase of 5.82 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4%. The inventory was 362330 tons, a decrease of 5.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The weekly output of cold-rolled coil was 88670 tons, a decrease of 0.17 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. The weekly consumption was 91930 tons, an increase of 3.08 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.25%. The inventory was 158490 tons, a decrease of 3.26 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.47%. The weekly output of medium and heavy plate was 158390 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.78%. The weekly consumption was 158150 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.17%. The inventory was 196360 tons, an increase of 0.24 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.55%. The total weekly output of the five major steel products was 819210 tons, an increase of 0.62 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 6.16%. The total weekly consumption was 826000 tons, an increase of 29 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4.58%. The total inventory was 1247000 tons, a decrease of 6.91 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.29% [7]. Steel Production Profit - On January 15, 2026, in East China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 120, a decrease of 5; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off-peak electricity was 33, an increase of 2; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 88, an increase of 2; the profit of hot-rolled coil - blast furnace was 19, an increase of 15. In North China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 5, a decrease of 7; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off-peak electricity was 55, an increase of 1; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 29, no change; the profit of hot-rolled coil - blast furnace was - 93, an increase of 3. In Central China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 175, no change; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off-peak electricity was 46, a decrease of 17; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 88, a decrease of 17; the profit of hot-rolled coil - blast furnace was 65, a decrease of 10 [22]. Steel Demand - **Real Estate**: In 2025, the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities was 10%, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 19% [30]. - **Cement and Concrete**: The cement delivery volume was lower than the previous year for most of 2025, and it is still lower than the same period last year in 2026. The concrete delivery volume is the same as the same period last year [33]. - **Steel Export**: In December, the steel export volume was 1.13 million tons, close to the historical highest level. The export profit of hot-rolled coil has generally declined recently [39]. Steel Inventory - **Rebar**: The rebar basis decreased slightly this week, but the absolute level is still high. Currently, the production profit of rebar is generally better than that of hot-rolled coil. Later, the rebar output may be stronger than the seasonal performance, and the decline will weaken. The apparent demand increased month-on-month, but it may only be a short-term pulse phenomenon. According to past rules, the basis is expected to narrow. The rebar inventory stopped decreasing this week, and the inventory increase is earlier in the lunar calendar. After the production control in 2025 ended, the release of production capacity may lead to relatively better rebar supply, and the month spread is difficult to strengthen [52][62]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The hot-rolled coil basis fluctuates around - 30, with little change. Although it is currently at a low level, the relatively high inventory of hot-rolled coil still suppresses the basis and limits the upward space. The hot-rolled coil 5 - 10 month spread fluctuates around - 20. The overall high inventory of hot-rolled coil and the difficulty in de-stocking suppress the month spread [56][67]. Price Difference - **Volume - Rebar Price Difference**: There are obvious differences in inventory and basis between hot-rolled coil and rebar. The spot price difference between hot-rolled coil and rebar has weakened, and there is still room for the futures price difference to shrink [3]. - **Basis**: The basis in East China has dropped from around 150 last week to around 130, and there is still room for further decline. The spot performance may be weak [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term outlook for the caustic soda market is bearish. The supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated, and prices are expected to remain under pressure. An approach of selling on rallies is recommended. Without a substantial improvement in the supply - demand contradiction, caustic soda prices are unlikely to have a trending upward movement and will mainly show a weak and volatile pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Today's Market Review - The main contract of caustic soda futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange showed a volatile downward trend. It opened at 2164 yuan/ton, reached a high of 2169 yuan/ton, a low of 2123 yuan/ton, and closed at 2131 yuan/ton, down 2.74% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 485,679 lots, and the open interest was 208,787 lots, an increase of 9,209 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of the variety reached 325,746 lots, continuing the recent upward trend [2]. Spot Market Situation - On January 13, 2026, the market price (mid - price) of 30% diaphragm caustic soda in North China was 720 yuan/ton. According to Business Society data, the benchmark price of caustic soda on that day was 726.00 yuan/ton, down 1.63% from the beginning of the month (738.00 yuan/ton), in the low - price range of the year. There is a significant basis between the caustic soda futures price and the spot price, and the market shows a contango pattern [2]. Main Influencing Factors Analysis - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The current caustic soda market has a pattern of "excess supply + weak demand". The supply side maintains high - level production with sufficient supply. On the demand side, non - aluminum industries mainly make low - price and rigid purchases, with low willingness to buy at high prices. The demand in the main alumina production areas has not changed much, and there is no new demand [2]. - **Macroeconomic environment**: In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment, but it has not significantly boosted the downstream demand for caustic soda [3]. - **Related product market**: In the chlor - alkali industry chain, the PVC market was relatively strong today but failed to drive up the caustic soda price, suggesting that the supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda itself is the dominant factor [3]. Short - term Outlook - The caustic soda market fundamentals remain bearish in the short term. The supply side maintains high - level production, and there are no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side. Prices are expected to remain under pressure. Key factors to watch include basis changes, inventory inflection points, downstream demand changes, and the impact of macro - economic policies on manufacturing demand [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the black metal market is mixed, with different trends and characteristics in each sub - sector. The market is affected by both macro and industrial factors, and the strategies for different varieties vary [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - The price of steel is in a state of stable fluctuation, and the driving force is not clear. The market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The de - stocking pressure of plates is prominent. After January, iron - water production may stop falling and stabilize, and there will be some appropriate replenishment behavior in the industry. Unilateral trading can be treated with an oscillatory mindset, and the hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive spread can still be rolled [2][4] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese (Double Silicon) - The double - silicon market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectations. The demand has weakened significantly, and it is difficult to improve in the short term. The supply is still high, and the pressure of over - supply in the medium term remains. Although the cost support of silicomanganese is strengthening, the price may fall under pressure in the future. Industrial customers can sell short for hedging at high prices, and investment customers can mainly engage in reverse spreads [4] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market of coke has an increasing expectation of the fourth round of price cuts, and the coking coal auction has mixed results with a high non - sale rate. The futures market is in an oscillatory state. The steel is still in a pattern of weak supply and demand, which is unfavorable to furnace materials. After the basis repair of the futures market, it is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and industrial customers can consider purchasing some cost - effective spot goods [4] Iron Ore - The iron - water production shows signs of stabilizing. The port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the price has an obvious upward pressure. Considering the steel mill's maintenance plan and seasonal factors, the iron - water production is expected to stabilize at the end of the month and rise in January. The steel mills will replenish the inventory before resuming production, so the price fluctuation range is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 4. Data Summary on December 26 Futures Contracts - **Far - month Contracts**: RB2610 closed at 3167 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (- 0.25%); HC2610 at 3296 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (- 0.18%); I2609 at 761 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.66%); J2609 at 1796.5 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan (- 0.91%); JM2609 at 1195.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.75%) [1] - **Near - month Contracts (Main Contracts)**: RB2605 closed at 3118 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (+0.42%); HC2605 at 3283 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.06%); I2605 at 783 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan (0.71%); J2605 at 1720 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan (- 1.12%); JM2605 at 1115.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan (- 1.02%) [1] Spread and Ratio - **Cross - month Spread**: RB2605 - 2610 was - 49 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; HC2605 - 2610 was - 13 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; I2605 - 2609 was 22 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; J2605 - 2609 was - 76.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; JM2605 - 2609 was - 80 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [1] - **Spread/Ratio/Profit**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 165 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.98, down 0.03; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.54, down 0.01; the rebar futures profit was - 91.7 yuan/ton, down 6.93 yuan; the coking futures profit was 236.39 yuan/ton, down 7.7 yuan [1] Spot Prices - **Steel Rebar**: Shanghai rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3140 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3520 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Platts Index was 107.85, up 0.55 [1] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton, unchanged; the billet - to - product spread was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 792 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Other**: The price of super - special fines at Qingdao Port was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Basis - HC main contract basis was - 33 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; RB main contract basis was 162 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; I main contract basis was 19 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was - 93.6 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; JM main contract basis was 84.5 yuan/ton, up 38.5 yuan [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Steel prices have weak driving force for continuous increase. The current low - volatility structure remains unbroken. Short - term long positions can be appropriately closed near price integer levels, and in the absence of new drivers, operate with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon face a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with prices oscillating. Their fundamentals are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand, but policy benefits and cost support may lead to a risk of price decline after a rise [3]. - Coking coal and coke futures are oscillating after basis repair. There is currently no sign of an upward trend in coking coal, but it is difficult to break below the high - cost margin of 1000. After short - term valuation repair, it waits for the spot rhythm. Industrial customers can consider purchasing some cost - effective spot [5]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to rising port inventories. However, as iron - making molten iron is expected to stabilize and rebound at the end of the month and steel mills need to replenish inventories, the decline in iron ore prices may slow down [6]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - The supply and demand of steel are both weak, but the inventory can still be depleted, mainly contributed by rebar. The iron - making molten iron output may not have reached the bottom, but the subsequent resumption of production power is also strong. There is also incremental demand for winter storage replenishment in the future. Short - term long positions can be appropriately closed near price integer levels, and operate with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - For trading strategies, short - term long positions should pay attention to closing, and hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive arbitrage can be rolled, or option strategies can be used to assist spot sales [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - The demand for silicon iron and manganese silicon has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply is still high, with a large pressure of over - supply in the medium term. The cost support for manganese silicon has strengthened. The overall fundamentals are under pressure, and industrial customers can sell short for hedging at high prices [3][7]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market has a fourth - round price cut expectation, and the trading atmosphere is general. The futures market is oscillating after basis repair. There is potential for inventory replenishment in the future. Industrial customers can consider purchasing some cost - effective spot, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [5][7]. Iron Ore - The iron - making molten iron output has stabilized in the short term, and the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, putting pressure on prices. However, as the iron - making molten iron is expected to rebound and steel mills need to replenish inventories, the decline in iron ore prices may slow down [6].