Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market performance of live pigs is below expectations, with near - term weakness. The market pressure is high due to factors such as the limited increase in demand and the planned increase in group slaughter volume in August. The September contract is expected to be mainly weak, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot prices**: The spot price in Henan is 14,430 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Sichuan, it is 13,700 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Guangdong, it is 15,940 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 300 [2] - **Futures prices**: The price of the live pig 2509 contract is 14,055 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 20; the live pig 2511 contract is 13,850 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 35; the live pig 2601 contract is 14,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 [2] - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 31,356 lots, an increase of 2311 from the previous day, and the open interest is 40,971 lots, a decrease of 4228 from the previous day; the live pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 24,661 lots, an increase of 7289 from the previous day, and an open interest of 51,204 lots, an increase of 583 from the previous day; the live pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 13,759 lots, a decrease of 3042 from the previous day, and an open interest of 40,395 lots, an increase of 180 from the previous day [2] - **Price differences**: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is 375 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 120; the live pig 2511 contract basis is 580 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 135; the live pig 2601 contract basis is 250 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 65; the 9 - 11 spread is 205 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the 11 - 1 spread is - 330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 70 [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3] 3. Market Logic - The market had a consistent expectation of price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume - reduction and price - pulling were below expectations. There is panic among retail farmers and secondary fattening groups. The market pressure is high in August, and the September contract is expected to be weak. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, presenting a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2] 2. Core View - The current situation is strong in reality but weak in expectation, with a trend of reverse arbitrage. Due to the current consumption off - season, limited downstream digestion capacity, increased selling intention of some retail farmers, the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated slaughter. The spot will continue to be weak. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, and the spread structure has switched to reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit points. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,080 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 13,550 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the Guangdong spot price is 15,440 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2509 contract is 14,125 yuan/ton (down 260 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the price of the生猪2511 contract is 14,250 yuan/ton (down 135 yuan/ton year - on - year) [1] 3.2 Market Logic - In the short term, due to the consumption off - season, limited downstream digestion capacity, increased selling intention of some retail farmers, the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated slaughter and continued weakness in the spot. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, and the spread structure has switched to reverse arbitrage. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Futures Trading Data - **Volume and Open Interest**: For the生猪2509 contract, the trading volume is 63,935 lots (an increase of 6,892 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 61,415 lots (a decrease of 881 lots from the previous day). For the生猪2511 contract, the trading volume is 24,447 lots (an increase of 1,370 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 49,491 lots (a decrease of 571 lots from the previous day). For the生猪2601 contract, the trading volume is 28,297 lots (an increase of 3,652 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 43,340 lots (an increase of 1,837 lots from the previous day) [4] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data of different contracts are provided, such as the生猪2509 basis,生猪2511 basis,生猪2601 basis,生猪9 - 11 spread, and生猪11 - 1 spread, along with their year - on - year changes [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the number of piglet births, the pattern of increasing theoretical slaughter volume in the later period remains unchanged. Considering the impact of pig diseases around February, the slaughter growth rate in August may be relatively low, while the growth rates in October and November are relatively high. With the increase in graduation banquets in August and pre - stocking for the start of school in early September, demand will increase significantly in August. After September, terminal consumption will have a seasonal rebound. Supported by the low slaughter growth rate and increased consumption in August, the spot price is expected to rise again and reach the annual high, followed by an expected shock adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited due to the policy - guided reduction of the average slaughter weight [1][21] - LH2509 and LH2511 have a high premium over the spot, which has fully priced in the later spot price increase, so shorting on rallies can be considered [1][21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, the spot market of live pigs declined. The spot price in the benchmark Henan region dropped from the high of 15.34 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to around 14.3 yuan/kg, a decline of nearly 1 yuan. Futures performed stronger than the spot, causing the basis to weaken rapidly. The futures price has turned to a premium of nearly 1000 yuan/ton compared to the spot in Sichuan Province. The decline in the live pig market was mainly due to the reduction of supply by large - scale farms at the beginning of the month, followed by the resumption of their supply, increased willingness of small - scale farmers to sell pigs due to hot weather, and weak consumption. The strong performance of futures comes from seasonal expectations and policy expectations [3] 3.2 Live Pig Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Continued Increase in Theoretical Slaughter Volume Indicated by Data of Sows and Piglets - The national inventory of reproductive sows reached a low of 39.86 million in May 2024, then rebounded to a high of 40.8 million in November 2024, with an increase of 2.4% from the low to the high. As of June 2025, it was 40.42 million, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. From the data of reproductive sows, the supply potential of commercial pigs will gradually increase from February to September 2025. The number of piglet births in sample enterprises has generally been increasing since November 2024, indicating that the domestic live pig supply is still guaranteed during the traditional seasonal rise window period from July to September 2025 [4] 3.2.2 Feed Sales Data Confirm the Increase in Live Pig Inventory - From October 2024 to January 2025, the sales volume of piglet feed and nursery feed decreased seasonally, but the decline was significantly lower than in previous years, indicating that piglets were less damaged in winter. The sales volume of finishing pig feed increased significantly month - on - month in March 2025, earlier than in previous years. The year - on - year growth rates of finishing pig feed sales volume from May to June were 17% and 9% respectively, indicating an obvious recovery in the inventory of medium - and large - sized pigs and relatively sufficient slaughter volume in the next 2 - 3 months [8] 3.2.3 Accelerated Slaughter of Heavy - Weight Pigs Later, but Unlikely to Cause Concentrated Selling Pressure - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in 16 key provinces reached the peak in May and then declined, with an accelerated decline in June and July, and is currently at the lowest level in the past 5 years. The decline is due to the increase in temperature and government policies. Seasonally, the price difference between fat and standard pigs will gradually increase after August, and the demand for fat pigs will increase seasonally. With the current low average weight, there is a large space for the industry to increase the average weight in the later period [10] 3.2.4 Short - Term Demand Boosted by Festivals, but No Highlights in the Medium Term - The national pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with the previous year, and the slaughter gross profit in 2025 has been significantly higher than that in the previous year, indicating better demand this year. The reasons may be the improvement of overall terminal consumption and the reduction of the impact of frozen products. In August, demand will increase significantly due to graduation banquets and pre - stocking for the start of school. After September, terminal consumption will have a seasonal rebound, but the impact on price depends on the matching degree of future supply [13] 3.2.5 Feed Cost Reduction Benefits the Industry, Maintaining Profitability - The domestic live pig industry has maintained profitability for nearly 14 months since May 2024. Although the pig price was low in the first half of 2025, the industry still made a profit due to the reduction of feed costs. The price of piglets has been rising since January, and the cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets will increase significantly. The theoretical cost of fattening pigs from self - bred piglets is concentrated in the range of 13 - 13.5 yuan/kg, while the cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets will rise to the range of 15 - 16 yuan/kg. It is expected that the feed cost is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the decline space of live pig breeding cost is limited [19] 3.3 Conclusion and Market Outlook - The pattern of increasing theoretical slaughter volume in the later period remains unchanged. Considering the impact of pig diseases around February, the slaughter growth rate in August may be relatively low, while the growth rates in October and November are relatively high. The large - scale groups are accelerating the reduction of the average slaughter weight, which may reduce the slaughter pressure in August, but small - scale farmers have a large number of heavy - weight pigs in stock. Supported by the low slaughter growth rate and increased consumption in August, the spot price is expected to rise again and reach the annual high, followed by an expected shock adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited. LH2509 and LH2511 have a high premium over the spot, so shorting on rallies can be considered [1][21]

Report Summary Report Title - The report is titled "Pigs: Waiting for End-of-Month Reality Confirmation" and was released on July 18, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - Currently in the off - season of consumption, downstream digestion capacity is limited. Although large - scale farms haven't increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has risen, causing a rapid decline in spot prices. This confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. It's necessary to wait for end - of - month spot price confirmation and pay attention to reserve policy trends. In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Data Summary Spot and Futures Prices - Spot prices: Henan is 14,480 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), Sichuan is 13,750 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), and Guangdong is 15,790 yuan/ton (down 300 yuan/ton) - Futures prices: The price of the pig 2509 contract is 14,060 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton), the pig 2511 contract is 13,535 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and the pig 2601 contract is 13,750 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton) [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume: The trading volume of the pig 2509 contract is 28,058 lots (down 22,326 lots), the pig 2511 contract is 5,818 lots (down 4,996 lots), and the pig 2601 contract is 3,535 lots (down 1,180 lots) - Open interest: The open interest of the pig 2509 contract is 64,811 lots (down 4,190 lots), the pig 2511 contract is 44,174 lots (down 216 lots), and the pig 2601 contract is 23,240 lots (up 252 lots) [3] Price Spreads - Basis: The basis of the pig 2509 contract is 420 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton), the pig 2511 contract is 945 yuan/ton (down 195 yuan/ton), and the pig 2601 contract is 730 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton) - Inter - contract spreads: The 9 - 11 spread of pigs is 525 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton), and the 11 - 1 spread is - 215 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton) [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, which is in the neutral range within the [-2, 2] interval [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current market is in a consumption off - season with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although group farms have not increased supply, some individual farmers' willingness to sell has risen, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. This indicates that the previous price increase was mainly driven by inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of a price increase from late July to early August may cause more concentrated sales, leading to an early shift in market sentiment. Attention should be paid to policy trends after the spot price falls below 14 yuan/kg. The impact path of this inventory cycle is more complex and needs to be judged based on factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and individual farmers' hoarding behavior. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,630 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 13,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 16,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 14,010 yuan/ton, 13,490 yuan/ton, and 13,700 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 240 yuan/ton, 130 yuan/ton, and 65 yuan/ton [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 50,384 lots, 10,814 lots, and 4,715 lots respectively, with increases of 26,540 lots, 5,178 lots, and 44 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 69,001 lots, 44,390 lots, and 22,988 lots respectively, with increases of 1,125 lots, 822 lots, and 265 lots compared to the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 620 yuan/ton, 1,140 yuan/ton, and 930 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 140 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and - 35 yuan/ton. The Pig 9 - 11 spread is 520 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the Pig 11 - 1 spread is - 210 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - In the short - term, due to the consumption off - season and increased selling by individual farmers, the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market's expectation of a future price increase may lead to more concentrated sales and an early shift in market sentiment. Attention should be paid to policy trends after the spot price falls below 14 yuan/kg. The impact path of the inventory cycle is complex and needs further spot price verification. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The current futures market has entered the expected trading stage. The expectation of state reserve purchases has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment. The spot price has been continuously strengthening, and the futures market is undergoing basis repair. A large number of piglets sold by large - scale farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, and subsequent spot performance should be monitored. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex, and it is necessary to judge the path based on factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer hoarding. Wait for subsequent spot verification and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. In the short term, the support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 15,130 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2509 contract is 14,340 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,550 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 contract is 13,575 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2509 contract is 80,558 lots, an increase of 58,279 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 83,925 lots, an increase of 5,729 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2511 contract is 15,375 lots, an increase of 10,983 lots, and the open interest is 42,922 lots, an increase of 1,156 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2601 contract is 6,507 lots, an increase of 4,709 lots, and the open interest is 17,841 lots, an increase of 227 lots [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2509 contract is 790 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2511 contract is 1,580 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2601 contract is 1,555 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The spread between Pig 9 - 11 is 790 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan/ton; the spread between Pig 11 - 1 is - 25 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [4]. 3.3 Market Logic The futures market is in the expected trading stage. Factors such as state reserve purchase expectations and short - term bullish sentiment are driving the market. The large number of piglets sold in the first quarter will affect the supply starting from July. The inventory reduction path is complex, and it is necessary to wait for spot verification and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support and resistance levels for the LH2509 contract are given [5].