机构：第一上海 研究员：李卓群 1H 业绩整体表现超预期：7 月15 日泡泡玛特发布1H 业绩预告，预计收入同比增长不低于200%（根据 测算对应收入不低于136.7 亿元，Q1/Q2 同比增速分别约为170%/230%，Q2 较Q1 增速进一步提升）， 净利润（不包括未完成统计的金融工具的公允价值变动损益）同比增长不低于350%（根据测算对应净 利润不低于43.4 亿元），超市场预期。公司业绩同比大幅增长主要由于：1）公司品牌及旗下IP 在全球 认可度进一步提升，多样化的产品品类促公司收入增长，各区域市场收入均实现持续高速增长；2）海 外收入占比持续提升，收入结构的变化对毛利、净利均产生积极影响。同时，规模效应使净利润显著增 加；3）持续优化产品成本，加强费用管控，提升盈利能力。 净利率创新高：基于1H 收入和净利润预期下限测算，公司上半年净利率约为32%，同比大幅提升约 10pct，创历史新高。公司盈利能力显着提升主要受益于同店业绩的快速增长优化了经营杠杆，也使规 模效应得到充分发挥。同时，高利润率的海外业务占比持续提升，其中北美市场表现尤为突出，在明星 效应和社交媒体传播的双重推动下实现爆发式增长。值得 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by strong domestic and international sales, new product launches, and improved store efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts over 200% year-on-year revenue growth for the first half of 2025, exceeding 13.67 billion RMB [1]. - Group profit (excluding unrealized gains from financial instruments) is projected to grow by over 350%, reaching at least 4.34 billion RMB [1]. - The profit margin for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 31.7%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, marking a historical high [1]. Group 2: Domestic Growth - The Labubu 3.0 series launched in April has generated high demand, leading to a temporary high premium in the second-hand market [2]. - The company has replenished stock in June to meet consumer demand, resulting in a slight price drop in the second-hand market while still maintaining a premium, indicating sustained IP popularity [2]. - The successful expansion of multiple IPs and the introduction of plush products are expected to enhance average transaction value [2]. Group 3: International Expansion - The company is experiencing rapid growth in Asia and is expanding quickly in Europe and North America, with significant results from its European expansion [2]. - The overseas revenue share is expected to increase in the first half of 2025, supported by strong consumer spending in these regions [2]. - A global organizational restructuring was initiated in April to enhance market operational efficiency and accelerate business development [2]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company has established a competitive advantage through a diverse IP matrix, strong IP operation capabilities, and extensive online and offline channels [3]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 10.05 billion, 13.11 billion, and 17.02 billion RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 33.8, 25.9, and 19.9 times [3]. - The company maintains a "recommended" rating based on its growth potential and competitive positioning [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart International Group Limited [2][5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve over 200% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, exceeding 13.67 billion RMB, with net profit growth of over 350%, reaching at least 4.34 billion RMB [3] - The company's profit margin reached a historical high of 31.7%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, driven by strong sales, new product launches, and overseas expansion [3][4] - The company has established a competitive advantage through a diverse IP matrix, strong IP operation capabilities, and extensive online and offline channels [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.30 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 36.46% - By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 31.80 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 143.93% - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1.08 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 127.55%, and is projected to reach 10.05 billion RMB by 2025, with a growth rate of 221.41% [6][10] Market Expansion - The company has seen strong domestic growth, particularly with the Labubu 3.0 series, which has generated high demand and maintained premium pricing in the secondary market [4] - Internationally, Pop Mart is expanding rapidly in Asia and making significant inroads in Europe and the Americas, with overseas revenue share increasing in the first half of 2025 [4][5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its high growth trajectory in overseas markets, particularly in high-consumption regions like Europe and the Americas [5] - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a steady increase in net profit, with projections of 10.05 billion RMB in 2025, 13.11 billion RMB in 2026, and 17.02 billion RMB in 2027 [6][10]